1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation has improved with the Sino - US talks making progress and the NDRC improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and planning to launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan. For glass, on the supply side, the profit of glass made from natural gas, coal, and oil has slightly increased due to falling raw material costs, and production remains stable. On the demand side, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and enterprise inventories have increased. The futures price is approaching the production cost, so cost support may work in the short term. For纯碱, the supply is decreasing slightly with some equipment maintenance, and downstream demand is lukewarm with more wait - and - see sentiment and small - scale destocking. It is recommended to temporarily observe both the 2509 contracts of纯碱 and glass [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the 纯碱 main contract is 1318 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 1045 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The 纯碱 main contract's open interest is 1233186 lots, up 11751 lots; the glass main contract's open interest is 1335775 lots, down 2299 lots. The net position of the top 20 in 纯碱 is - 197814, up 1356; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 146540, up 43116. The 纯碱 exchange warehouse receipts are 3106 tons, down 237 tons; the glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2380 tons, up 115 tons. The 9 - 1 spread of 纯碱 is 13 yuan, up 14 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 41 yuan, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of North China heavy 纯碱 is 1325 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price of Central China heavy 纯碱 is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of East China light 纯碱 is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light 纯碱 is 1335 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1116 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 纯碱 basis is 7 yuan, up 2 yuan; the glass basis is 71 yuan, down 19 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The 纯碱 plant operating rate is 87.74%, down 0.93 percentage points; the float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.24%, down 0.61 percentage points. The in - production capacity of glass is 15.52 million tons/year, down 0.26 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines is 222, down 3. The 纯碱 enterprise inventory is 170.07 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; the glass enterprise inventory is 67560000 weight boxes, up 2571000 weight boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new real - estate construction area is 129964600 square meters, up 63824600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate completion area is 130602700 square meters, up 42962700 square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank broadens the use scope of re - loans for affordable housing. There are housing purchase subsidies in Shanghai Yangpu, housing development plans in Beijing, and support for housing provident fund loans in Beijing. In April, the second - hand housing transactions in Dongguan increased by 36% year - on - year. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a meeting to support the development of the private economy. The average rent of 50 cities in April decreased slightly month - on - month. In April, the contracted sales amount of China Merchants Shekou was 14.764 billion yuan. In April, about 71.7 billion yuan of the newly issued 176.3 billion yuan special bonds were invested in the real - estate related fields. From January to April, the total transaction amount of the national foreclosed housing market was 83.14 billion yuan. Shanghai released the list of the fifth batch of residential land to be transferred this year. In April, the contract sales amount of Jianye Real Estate was 600 million yuan, down 20.2% year - on - year. As of April 30, 2025, the contract sales amount of Shimao Group in four months was about 9.07 billion yuan. In April, the contracted area of Shoukai Co., Ltd. was 108400 square meters, down 24.92% month - on - month [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 311.67 billion yuan for 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 billion yuan, down 58.6% year-over-year [1][3] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 54.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.95 billion yuan, down 12.27% year-over-year [1][4] Revenue and Sales Performance - The company maintained its leading sales position, achieving a total sales amount of 323 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 23.5% year-over-year, with a sales area of 17.97 million square meters, down 24.7% year-over-year [1] - The average sales price per square meter was 17,980 yuan, an increase of 1.6% year-over-year [1] - The company focused on depleting existing projects, successfully liquidating 10.78 million square meters of inventory from projects acquired before 2022, resulting in a reduction of over 20% in the area of projects on hand [1] Land Acquisition and Investment Strategy - The company optimized its land reserve structure, with a total land acquisition cost of 68.3 billion yuan in 2024, ranking second in the industry [2] - From 2022 to 2024, the total land acquisition cost reached nearly 400 billion yuan, with a total value of approximately 735 billion yuan, leading the industry [2] - In 2024, 99% of the investment was concentrated in 38 core cities, with 74% in key areas of first-tier cities [2] Financial Performance and Cost Management - The decline in revenue was attributed to a decrease in the delivery scale of real estate projects, with a gross profit margin of 13.9% in 2024, down from 16.0% in 2023 [3] - The company recorded asset impairment losses of 5.06 billion yuan in 2024, alongside credit impairment losses of 670 million yuan [3] - The company achieved a sales collection of 327.7 billion yuan, with a collection rate exceeding 100% [3] Debt and Financing - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt was reduced by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan, marking two consecutive years of debt reduction [4] - The comprehensive cost of new interest-bearing debt decreased by 22 basis points to 2.92%, while the overall financing cost dropped by 46 basis points to 3.1%, both reaching historical lows [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position, with projected revenues of 288.29 billion yuan, 273.01 billion yuan, and 262.64 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and net profits of 5.51 billion yuan, 6.18 billion yuan, and 6.81 billion yuan respectively [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current trade situation will have a negative impact on the downstream consumption and exports of steel products, but has limited impact on billet exports. The profit of billet is currently good. The Politburo meeting emphasized measures such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the State Council Information Office stated that major policies will be introduced in the second quarter, boosting market confidence. The real - estate market in core cities may gradually stabilize and recover, while the market in low - tier cities is still bottoming out. The downstream demand has entered the peak season in April, but high demand may not be sustainable, and the apparent demand will decline seasonally after the consumption peak. For steel futures, it is a short - term rebound, not a reversal [2]. - Policy factors have boosted market confidence. The downstream demand peak in April may support the futures price. The steel mill profitability is acceptable, and the molten iron production is in a recovery trend but may have peaked. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and may continue to rise, and the port inventory has been increasing, which exerts pressure on the futures price. The real - estate data shows a mixed situation in different - tier cities. Technically, the iron ore futures price has been falling and is weaker than that of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The trade situation affects steel consumption and exports. The Politburo meeting and policy announcements boost confidence. The real - estate market shows different trends in core and low - tier cities. The downstream demand in April is in the peak season, with rebar production, factory inventory, and social inventory decreasing last week, and the apparent demand falling month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen in the past two days with a decline in positions, indicating a short - term rebound [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short on rallies, do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have changed to varying degrees. For example, the rebar futures price increased by 0.90% compared to the previous day and 0.51% compared to last week [2]. - **Production**: The production of rebar decreased slightly by 0.05% week - on - week, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.99% [2]. - **Inventory**: The social and factory inventories of the five major steel products decreased. For example, the social inventory of the five major products decreased by 3.68% week - on - week [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Policy boosts market confidence. The downstream demand peak in April may support prices. Steel mills have acceptable profitability, and molten iron production is in a recovery trend but may have peaked. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level and may continue to rise, and the port inventory has been increasing, exerting pressure on prices. The real - estate market shows different trends in different - tier cities [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has been falling and is weaker than that of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close short positions at low prices and then stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract increased by 0.21% compared to the previous day and decreased by 0.70% compared to last week [4]. - **Shipment**: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased. For example, Australian shipments increased by 11.08% compared to last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 1.46% week - on - week [4]. III. Industry News - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2512.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 187.5 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1159.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.3 million tons [6]. - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2758.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.7 million tons. Australian shipments were 1995.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 196.0 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1647.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 72.9 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124.6 million tons. The global iron ore shipment volume was 3188.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 262.7 million tons [6]. - In the fourth week of April 2025, the total shipment of Brazilian iron ore was 2346.94 million tons, with an average daily shipment of 138.06 million tons per day, a 2.49% increase compared to April last year [6].

点评： 1、一季度国内经济实现"开门红"，二季度将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 会议对当前经济形势做出研判，指出"我国经济呈现向好态势"，但同时，"经济持续回升向 好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大"。从数据来看，2025年一季度GDP增长5.4%， 增速高于市场预期和全年增长目标，国民经济实现良好开局，经济面修复改善。宏观政策方面， 会议强调"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"。财政政策方面，4月财政部启动今年1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元中央金融机构 注资特别国债发行，加之会议提出"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"，预 计未来一段时间地方政府债券还会保持较快发行节奏。总体看，国内财政政策空间充足。货币政 策方面，由于一季度经济超预期，4月LPR继续保持不变。此外，目前我国经济修复动能呈现增强 趋势，A股市场整体表现较为韧性，人民币汇率短期面临一定压力，所以短期宽货币政策或有所 延后。但与此同时，受外部经贸环境变化影响，宏观政策助力稳增长的必要性上升，4月央行MLF 净投放达到5000亿元，为连续第二个月加量续作，此次会议也延 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of $3 million or $0.11 per diluted share on total revenues of $612 million for Q1 2025, with adjusted net income of $7 million or $0.25 per diluted share compared to $5 million or $0.17 in Q1 2024 [16][18] - The title segment's operating revenues increased by $48 million or 11%, leading to a $2 million increase in title pretax income, with adjusted pretax income improving to $12 million, up $5 million from last year [18][19] - The title loss ratio improved to 3.5% compared to 3.9% in the prior year quarter, with expectations for title losses to average in the low 4% range for the full year 2025 [20][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Title segment grew by 11%, with domestic commercial business growing 39% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in retail, mixed-use, and energy asset classes [7][19] - Real Estate Solutions segment revenues increased by $14 million or 7%, but pretax income decreased due to higher credit information costs and employee expenses [21] - Agency Services saw gross agency revenues improve by $27 million or 11%, with net agency revenues increasing by $5 million or 13% [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Existing home sales remained low, with pending home sales for February down 3.6% from last year, indicating a challenging market environment [6] - The company noted improved housing inventories and market activity trends in early April, suggesting potential for recovery in the second half of the year [7] - International revenue grew by 16% compared to the previous year, with a focus on expanding geographical presence in Canada [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on growth through acquisitions and expanding its market share in targeted metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) [8][9] - There is a commitment to enhancing service offerings for agent partners and pursuing growth across existing markets, particularly in 15 key states [9][10] - The management emphasized the importance of positioning for long-term growth and sustainability despite current market challenges [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on an improving market in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [14] - The CEO highlighted the robust nature of the commercial market, expecting double-digit growth despite some volatility [26] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by the Texas Department of Insurance fee cuts but indicated plans to manage through these changes [41][43] Other Important Information - The company has a solid financial position with total cash and investments of approximately $320 million in excess of statutory premium reserve requirements [22] - The employee cost ratio improved to 31% from 32% year-over-year, while other operating expense ratios increased to 27% due to higher costs in real estate solutions and commercial operations [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about commercial activity and potential slowdown - Management indicated that commercial activity remains robust, with expectations for double-digit growth despite some market volatility [26] Question: Clarification on investment income decline - The decline in investment income was primarily due to lower escrow balances [28] Question: Commentary on loss provision rate and potential volatility - Management noted that the loss provision rate is closely monitored, with potential volatility due to the mix of business, particularly in international operations [35][36] Question: Growth in residential purchase fee per file - The residential fee per file increased by 13%, driven by a higher percentage of purchase transactions [39] Question: Impact of Texas Department of Insurance fee cuts - Management is challenging the fee cuts and believes adjustments can be made to manage through the changes [42][43]

215 | 国务院常务会议: 漫定股市 Financial Weekly 母周金融评论 . . 重大事件 EVENTS ◎ 特朗普称可立即让美联储主席走人 Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 | 目录 CONTENTS 热点聚焦 OCUS ◎ 国务院常务会议·要持续稳定股市、持续推动房地产市场 平稳健康发展 ◎ 商务部:坚决反对任何一方以牺牲中方利益为代价达成交易, 将坚决对等反制 MEETINGS ◎ 国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开推动低空经济发展工作会议 重大政策 POLICES ◎ 欧洲央行下调三大关键利率25个基点 重要数字 DATA ◎ 美国股汇双杀，美元指数暴跌1％，美国股指期货走低 © 现货黄金史上首次站上3300美元/盎司 JP/UI 1-12 热点聚 焦 国务院常务会议：要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展 4月18日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议。会议指出，面对复杂严峻的外部环境，要深入贯彻中央经济工作会议部 署，加力落实《政府工作报告》明确的政策措施，锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消 费扩内需，着力优结构提质量，做强国内大循 ...

赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 2025年3月5日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告。 一、主要经济目标设定更务实，相关指标设计讨论充分 主要经济目标设定更加"务实"，对相关指标设计讨论充分。 2025年经济增长预期目标为5%左右，"既是 稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑"；报告也提出"实现这些目标很不 容易，必须付出艰苦努力"。基于5%左右的经济增长目标，政策部署更加灵活，报告指出将"根据形势变 化动态调整政策，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性"，执行层面注重"加强上下联动、横向协 作"。 对可能遇到的困难与挑战，报告表述清醒客观，特别提及关税、内需和执行层面问题。 报告指出"多边贸 易体制受阻，关税壁垒增多"等问题。内部发展方面，报告梳理三大矛盾：需求端"有效需求不足"的结构 性问题，供给端 "部分企业生产经营困难，账款拖欠问题仍较突出"，民生领域"群众就业增收面临压 力"等。同时，报告特别提及"一些地方基层财政困难"，也直指"一些工作协调配合不够，有的政策落地偏 慢 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's real estate market has shown a significant recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, driven by government stimulus measures and a rebound in buyer confidence, leading to increased transaction volumes and prices in both new and second-hand housing markets [2][11][22]. Group 1: New Housing Market - In October 2023, Shenzhen's new housing transactions surged to 4,153 units, up from around 2,000 units previously, with November seeing 8,076 units and December maintaining a high of 6,769 units [2]. - The total new housing transaction volume for the year exceeded that of 2023, indicating a strong recovery trend [2]. - The second-hand housing market also experienced a notable rebound, with transaction volumes increasing from 3,191 units in September to 8,282 units in December [2][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - After hitting a low of 6 million yuan per unit in July 2023, Shenzhen's second-hand housing prices rebounded, reaching 6.3 million yuan in October and further increasing to 6.41 million yuan by February 2025 [3][8]. - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, the average transaction price showed slight fluctuations, with a minor decline noted in November and December 2023 [7][8]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - The recovery in Shenzhen's real estate market is attributed to strong purchasing power, a supply-demand imbalance, and improved market confidence driven by macroeconomic policies [11][12]. - The central government's shift towards more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies aims to stabilize the economy and support the real estate sector, with expectations of significant reductions in interest rates and increased government spending [11][15]. - Shenzhen's economic performance remains robust, with a GDP growth rate of 5.8% in 2023, outperforming other major cities, and a total GDP nearing 3.7 trillion yuan [13][14]. Group 4: Population Dynamics - Shenzhen's population increased by 199,400 in 2024, reaching a total of 17.99 million, marking the highest growth among major cities [20][21]. - This population growth is expected to further support housing demand and contribute to the overall recovery of the real estate market [20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While the current recovery is promising, the long-term stability of Shenzhen's real estate market hinges on broader economic recovery and employment improvements across the country [22][25]. - The market is still in an adjustment phase, and the true impact of recent policy changes and economic conditions will become clearer in the second and third quarters of 2024 [25][26].

Group 1: Economic Goals and Policies - The GDP target for 2025 is expected to remain around 5.0%, consistent with the previous two years, to align with the goal of doubling the economic total by 2035 and to absorb the 1,222,000 new graduates entering the job market [2] - CPI target is anticipated to be adjusted to around 2.0%, reflecting a cautious approach due to low inflation pressures, with 27 provinces setting their CPI targets similarly [2] - The central government is expected to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with potential adjustments to the deficit rate and an increase in the scale of long-term bonds and local government special bonds [3][4] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Domestic Demand - The monetary policy is shifting to a moderately loose stance, the first change since 2011, with market expectations for further adjustments [5][6] - The government aims to boost domestic demand by enhancing consumption and investment, with specific policies being developed to stimulate consumer spending and support major projects [7] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Private Economy - The focus on technological innovation is emphasized as a key task for developing new productive forces and modern industrial systems, particularly in light of recent advancements in AI [9] - The central government is reiterating its commitment to support the private economy, with ongoing legislative efforts to create a favorable environment for private enterprises [10] Group 4: External Challenges and Real Estate Market - The government is addressing external uncertainties, particularly regarding trade policies and foreign investment, with plans to stabilize foreign trade and investment [11][12] - The real estate market is a core concern, with measures in place to stabilize prices and improve market conditions, including potential government acquisitions of unsold properties [13][14] Group 5: Capital Market and Demographic Policies - Efforts to stabilize the capital market are ongoing, with initiatives to attract long-term funds and enhance market stability [15] - Demographic policies are under review, with potential new measures to address aging and declining birth rates, including possible incentives for families [17]

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The group's underlying profit for the six months ended December 31, 2024, was approximately HKD 10.5 billion, representing a 17.5% year-on-year increase, primarily due to higher property development profit from Hong Kong [5] - Reported profit decreased by 17.7% year-on-year to HKD 7.5 billion, influenced by a net revaluation loss of around HKD 2 billion on investment properties [5] - Underlying earnings per share rose by 17.5% to HKD 3.61, while reported earnings per share fell by 17.7% to HKD 2.6 [6] - The net debt as of December 2024 was HKD 107.8 billion, with a net gearing ratio of 17.8%, down from 18.3% [8] Business Segment Performance Changes - Property development profit increased by 22.8% to approximately RMB 2.5 billion, mainly due to higher revenue from property development in Hong Kong [6] - Net rental income decreased by 3.5% to around HKD 9 billion, with declines in both Hong Kong and Mainland portfolios [7] - Hotel operating profit dropped to BRL 377 million from BRL 430 million, a decrease of 12% year-on-year [30] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The group's total land bank in Hong Kong was about 56.9 million square feet, with 37.6 million square feet completed and 19.3 million square feet under development [12] - In Hong Kong, contracted sales increased by 344% year-on-year to about HKD 16 billion, driven by several key projects [15] - The Mainland's recognized property sales decreased by 61% year-on-year to about RMB 617 million, primarily due to lower sales volume of residential units [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The group aims to maintain prudent financial management, focusing on cash flow management, strict control of construction CapEx, and strengthening recurring income from property investments [9][10] - The company plans to launch new projects when ready and sell unsold residential units and non-core properties [10] - The group is committed to enhancing its property investment portfolio's competitiveness through asset enhancement initiatives and maintaining close relationships with tenants [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed cautious optimism for the Hong Kong residential market, citing lower mortgage rates and a robust rental market [58] - For the Mainland, the management noted that supportive policies are expected to drive domestic consumption and restore buyer confidence in the property market [35] - The company remains confident in achieving its sales target of RMB 4 billion for the financial year 2025, with several new launches planned [66] Other Important Information - The group has achieved a 25% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for key commercial buildings ahead of schedule and aims for a further 35% reduction by 2029 [31] - The company is developing Hong Kong's first privately funded solar farm, expected to be completed in 2025 [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for Hong Kong residential home prices - Management noted that lower mortgage rates are expected to continue, which may support the residential market despite high supply levels [58] Question: Revision of Hong Kong property contract sales - Management indicated that they are confident in achieving their sales targets and have several new projects launching in the upcoming months [66] Question: Profit margin outlook for property development in Hong Kong - Management acknowledged that profit margins have been affected but expressed confidence in achieving high unit prices for premium projects [61] Question: Outlook for Mainland China residential demand - Management highlighted a polarization in the market, with strong sales in Tier one and Tier two cities, supported by government policies [63] Question: Concerns about liquidity in the sector - Management reassured that the company maintains a strong financial position with ample undrawn bank lines, mitigating potential risks [78] Question: Dividend policy considerations - Management confirmed that the dividend policy will remain at 40% to 50% of earnings per share [79] Question: Risk of further cap rate expansion - Management believes that further cap rate expansion is unlikely due to decreasing interest rates [80]