责编：李丹 校对： 杨立林 事关关税。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间6月13日，日本外务省表示，日本首相石破茂与美国总统特朗普当日晚进行了约20 分钟通话。石破茂强调了日本对美国关税的看法，两国领导人同意加快部长级磋商，以达成对双方互利的协 议。 两国领导人还就如何应对以色列近期袭击伊朗问题交换了意见。 据环球时报此前消息，"第五轮日美关税谈判仍然毫无进展。"日本《朝日新闻》6月7日以此为题报道称，日本 经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正于当地时间6月5日、6日在华盛顿出席了第五轮日美关税谈判。他表示双方"尚未找 到共识"，凸显此次谈判并未弥合双方分歧。 报道称，日本方面再次强烈要求美国政府重新调整高关税措施，并围绕扩大两国间贸易、重新审视非关税措 施、加强经济安全合作三个主要方面进行磋商。6日谈判结束后，赤泽亮正表示"我们朝着达成协议方向进行的 讨论取得了一些进展"，但他拒绝透露取得了什么进展。 综合自：央视新闻、环球时报 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 广汽集团，重磅官宣！ 丨 重大交易，有条件"放行"！刚刚，特朗普签署行政令！ 丨 证监会出 手 ...

其他船型的运价指数呈现分化态势。6月13日，巴拿马型船运价指数上涨1.89%报1401点。5月14日以来，该指 数累计上涨6.5%。巴拿马型船舶通常运载6万至7万吨的煤炭或谷物。 运价指数持续上涨！ 6月13日，波罗的海干散货指数（BDI指数）上涨3.36%，报1968点，创出去年10月初以来新高。最近一个月， BDI指数累计涨幅达到54%。 此外，德路里世界集装箱运价指数（WCI）本周（截至6月12日）环比上周保持稳定，约为3543美元/FEU。过 去四周，德路里世界集装箱运价指数飙升59%，这源于中美关税90天缓冲期的举措，使得跨太平洋东行货运量 得以迅速回升。 值得关注的是，"大杀器"或许还在后面，随着中东紧张局势加剧，市场担心伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡来报 复。有分析指出，如果以色列和伊朗的冲突持续升级导致霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，油价可能会被推至每桶120 美元。 BDI指数一个月上涨54% 6月13日，波罗的海干散货指数（BDI）涨3.36%，报1968点。本周，BDI指数累计上涨20.51%。最近一个月， BDI指数累计涨幅达54%。 海岬型船运价指数的上涨，成为推动BDI指数上行的主要因素。6月13 ...

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated Japan's stance on U.S. tariff measures and considered the results of previous negotiations between Japan and the U.S. Both leaders agreed to accelerate discussions among relevant ministers to reach a mutually beneficial agreement [1][4] - The leaders also exchanged views on how to respond to Israel's recent attacks on Iran, agreeing that peace and stability in the Middle East are crucial and that they will maintain close communication on this issue [1][4] Group 2 - Japan is negotiating with the U.S. regarding tariffs on products including automobiles, steel, and aluminum, with significant differences in positions and no consensus reached yet [2] - Prime Minister Ishiba expressed regret over the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on key automotive parts and stated that Japan will continue to demand a review of these tariff measures [2] - Ishiba emphasized that Japan cannot accept an agreement with the U.S. that excludes the automotive sector and will not sacrifice agriculture to expand imports of U.S. rice as a bargaining chip [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and ferrosilicon are rated with white stars, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Silicomanganese is rated with three red stars, representing a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is weak, with demand expectations remaining pessimistic and limited upward space for the market [2] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with supply pressure increasing and negative feedback risks in the mid - term [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal are oscillating downward, but have rebounded due to factors such as downstream ironwater levels and tariff impacts [4][6] - The price of silicomanganese is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] - The price of ferrosilicon is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to fall, production declined synchronously, and the inventory reduction slowed. The demand and production of hot - rolled coil slightly declined, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Ironwater production is gradually falling but remains relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation persists. The improvement in the infrastructure sector is limited, real - estate sales lack sustainable recovery, and new construction and construction continue to decline significantly. In May, automobile production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the manufacturing industry still has resilience. Market sentiment is volatile, the rebound momentum of the futures market is insufficient, and pessimistic demand expectations restrict the upward space [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices oscillated. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively strong for the same period, with seasonal growth potential in the future. The domestic arrival volume has increased and is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventories are expected to stop falling and rise, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, terminal demand weakens in the off - season. Steel mills have a good profit rate and lack the motivation for active production cuts. The short - term production cut space for ironwater is relatively limited, and there are still negative feedback risks in the mid - term. Sino - US talks have improved market sentiment, but there are still uncertainties in foreign trade. It is expected that iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices oscillated downward. Ironwater production slightly declined, but coking daily production remains at a relatively high level this year due to existing coking profits. The overall coke inventory slightly increased, and traders had no purchasing actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines slightly declined from a high level, and the expectation of mine production cuts has increased. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and transaction prices have continued to decline. Terminal inventories continue to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and whether the production - end inventory will continue to decline remains to be observed. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the previous price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [6] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese slightly declined. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has started to increase, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The price of Comilog's long - term ore has been reduced by $0.15 to $4.25 per ton - degree, and the offer volume has recovered to over 400,000 tons per month. The shipment volume of South32 is likely to increase later, the manganese ore inventory accumulation rate has increased, and the price is further pressured. It is judged that the manganese ore price has started a further downward trend. Ironwater production has slightly declined, and the supply of silicomanganese has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started a trend of accumulation, market expectations have changed, and the price remains weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. Ironwater production slightly declined. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level, with overall demand being acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, the market transaction level was average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory slightly decreased. Some ferrosilicon producers are in cash - flow losses and may adopt a trading model of taking delivery on the futures market and reselling to downstream, which is beneficial for ferrosilicon inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China economic and trade consultation in London has yielded positive outcomes, enhancing bilateral economic relations and setting the stage for further cooperation [1] Group 1: Market Insights - The China Securities A500 Index (中证A500) is designed using an "industry balance" approach, representing the top 500 securities by market capitalization and liquidity, covering 100% of the second-level industries and 97% of the third-level industries in the China Securities market [1] - The A500 Index includes approximately 50% traditional value sectors (finance, materials, consumer, energy, public utilities) and 50% emerging growth sectors (industrial, information technology, communication services, healthcare) [2] - Historical performance shows that as of May 30, 2025, the A500 Index has increased by 350.35% since its base date, outperforming the CSI 300 and CSI 800 indices, which recorded returns of 284.02% and 314.03% respectively [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider the China Securities A500 ETF (159338) for exposure to core A-share assets, with a scale of 19.742 billion yuan as of June 10, 2025, making it the largest among the first batch of A500 ETFs [3] - The A500 ETF has the highest average daily trading volume among the first batch of A500 ETFs, indicating strong liquidity [4]

·国投期货表示，隔夜美国5月CPI年率录得2.4%，核心CPI录得2.8%，同比环比均低于预期，特朗普再 次呼吁降息，美元回落，金价小幅上涨。但中美会谈达成共识框架消息令市场风险偏好继续向好限制金 价涨幅。各方关税谈判将继续主导市场，俄乌等地缘局势持续紧张，金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调 买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空间。 ·新湖期货表示，昨晚美国公布的5月CPI略低于市场预期，市场加大对美联储降息的押注，同时特朗普 再度向美联储施压降息，数据公布后黄金短线快速走强。中美首轮关税贸易谈判基本达成，市场不确定 性进一步降低。短期来看，中美首轮和谈进展符合市场预期，美国关税政策不确定性给市场带来的影响 有所减弱，金价波动在近期可能有所降低，但需警惕特朗普政策的反复。中长期来看，央行购金具有持 续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势，将继续支撑金价中枢上行，后续黄金可能仍偏强。 ·瑞银（UBS）的分析师在给客户的报告中称，尽管黄金近期走势有所盘整，但"目前金价涨势的暂停预 示着下一轮上涨行情的好兆头，因为看涨黄金的市场情绪没有改变。该行分析师认为，围绕美国关税、 财政政策和美联储应对的高度不确定性，增强了对投资 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-12 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，6月美农报偏空预期和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方 震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹空间， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2850（华东），基差-197，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存38.25万吨，上周29.8万吨，环比增加28.36%，去年同期85.61万吨， 同比减少65.19%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 12 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货6月11日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,941.3 | 1,920.0 | 1,926.0 | 1,935.5 | -15.3 | -0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-12 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 核心逻辑：近日中美两国领导人通电话，释放积极信号，中方邀请美方访 ...

| TCTERETT | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度策略参考 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z000011 | | 从业资格号:F0251925 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | | 当前国内因素对股指的驱动力不强,基本面表现偏弱,最新通胀 | | | 和外贸数据显示价格继续低位运行、出口增速放缓,政策面也处 | | | 于相对真空期。海外因素主导了股指的短期波动, | | | 需关注中美经 | | | 股指(1) | | 辰汤 | 贸谈判的最新进展。预计在无明显利好出现的情况下, 股指向上 | | | 突破的可能性较低。操作节奏上需警惕中美关税信号的反复,建 | | | 议以观望为主。 | 宏观金融 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国 | 震荡 | 空间。 | | | 震荡 | 東金 | | 短期或震荡运行:中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | | | 震荡 | 日限 | | 冲高回落后,银价短期料进入震荡走势。 | | | 中美新一轮会谈提振市场风险偏好,铜价偏强运行,但精炼铜供 ...