1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].

美联储最新公布的六月会议纪要，向市场清晰传递了一个信号：关于何时降息，决策者们正站在一道因关税而变得模糊不清的岔路口上。 会议记录揭示，美联储官员们在利率前景判断上出现明显分化，分歧的核心源头直指贸易政策。与会者们坦言，关于关税对通胀影响的时点、程度和持续 性，仍存在"相当大的不确定性"。这种不确定性直接导致了政策路径判断的差异。 在会议室内，一部分观点认为，加征关税可能只会带来一次性的价格上生，不会动摇长期通胀预期；但另一部分声音——会议纪要明确标注为"多数与会 者"——则担忧关税效应可能更为顽固，对通胀产生持续性的推升压力。这种根本性判断差异，深刻体现在会后那份备受瞩目的利率预测"点阵图"上：十九 位政策制定者中，十人预计今年至少降息两次，两人预计降息一次，而仍有七人坚持认为年内利率应维持不变。 尽管存在这些降息的声音，会议纪要同时揭示了一种广泛共识下的审慎耐心。大多数政策制定者认同，年内"适当降低"政策利率是合适的。然而，他们普遍 认为，美国当前整体稳定的经济状况——被描述为增长"稳健"、失业率"较低"——赋予了美联储在利率调整时机上保持观察的空间。 "与会者一致认为，尽管通胀和经济前景的不确定性已有所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The Federal Reserve is divided on whether the new costs from tariffs justify maintaining high interest rates, with some officials concerned about inflation expectations [1][5]. - Recent changes, including a reduction in some extreme tariff increases and an extended negotiation period with multiple countries, have altered the Fed's outlook on rate cuts [4][5]. - There has been no significant increase in consumer prices related to tariffs yet, although many expect to see price rises in upcoming June and July data [5][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The internal division within the Fed presents a critical test regarding the inflationary nature of tariffs and how to manage costs if predictions are incorrect [6]. - Fed Chair Powell's recent comments suggest a tactical flexibility, indicating that potential rate cuts are a continuation of a process paused due to tariff risks [7][8]. - Powell's stance reflects a middle ground, acknowledging the possibility of less severe inflation than previously thought, which may open the door for rate cuts based on labor market conditions or improved inflation data [8][9].

最近美联储的6月会议纪要出来了，里面的内容很值得我们好好看看。 首先，美联储内部现在不是一个声音。大家对未来利率该怎么走，分歧越来越大，根本原因就在于对"关税会不会推高通胀"这个问题，意见不一致。有人 认为这是一次性的冲击，也有人担心是个长期问题。 财经记者Nick Timiraos就说了，这次会议背后，其实不仅是数据问题，还有政治压力的背景。白宫之前对鲍威尔有点火气，明显对当前利率政策不满意。 而在这种背景下，美联储内部也出现分裂——到底该不该降息？什么时候降？没统一意见。 现在的问题是，贸易政策变化太快。特朗普政府又加了一堆关税，政策走向不确定性非常大，给美联储的判断增加了难度。但也有好消息，官员们一致认 为，相比上次会议，这次不确定性有些下降。 不过注意一点，美联储也不是完全被动。鲍威尔说得很清楚：我们在观察。7月15号要公布6月CPI，到时候再看。如果通胀数据真的温和，那7月底会议 可能就会有人支持降息了。 确实，像沃勒和鲍曼最近就公开表示，如果数据继续温和，他们可能会考虑支持7月降息。不过，鲍威尔本人没明确说话，市场目前也普遍预期9月更可能 成为启动降息的节点。 现在投资者怎么看？联邦基金利率期货显 ...

今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年7月10日的欧元/美元深入分析。 特朗普总统在6月底促成的中东停火短暂支持了风险敏感资产，提升了市场情绪。然而，随着贸易担忧 的重新出现，这一顺风逐渐消退。 白宫周一宣布对日本和韩国商品征收25%的关税以及对铜进口征收50%的关税，尽管将下一个关税截止 日期推迟到8月1日，但重新点燃了更广泛贸易冲突的担忧，并增强了美元。 投资者对潜在的美欧贸易协议保持谨慎。尽管双方都强调达成协议的必要性，但并没有取得显著进展。 政策分歧暂时搁置 美联储（Fed）在6月将利率维持在4.25%-4.50%，上调了通胀和就业预测，并暗示年底前可能降息约50 个基点。 · 欧元/美元增加了持续的看跌基调，遇到1.1680附近的阻力。 · 美元在贸易前景日益活跃的情况下保持韧性。 · FOMC会议纪要显示本月降息缺乏信心。 周三，欧元（EUR）对美元（USD）小幅回落，欧元/美元在1.1700区域表现不稳定。在跌至1.1690- 1.1680区间的两周低点后，该货币对恢复了动能，并在当天晚些时候重新回到1.1700水平。 地缘政治和贸易不安使投资者保持谨慎 初步阻力位于2025年高 ...

一、6月会议纪要揭示决策层分歧，7月降息预期降温但未消弭 当地时间7月9日，美联储公布6月17日至18日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要，显示部分官员支持在7月29-30日的会议上考虑降息，但多数官员认 为需等待更多经济数据以评估关税政策对通胀的影响。这一表态与市场此前对7月降息的强烈预期形成反差，导致7月10日亚市早盘黄金价格呈现震荡格局 ——伦敦金一度冲高至3326.16美元/盎司，随后回落至3318美元附近。 二、决策层分歧的核心逻辑：关税传导与通胀路径的不确定性 会议纪要显示，美联储官员对关税政策的影响存在显著分歧。部分官员认为，特朗普政府对进口商品加征的关税可能通过供应链传导推高通胀，但若贸易谈 判取得进展，这种影响可能是短暂的。例如，对巴西、菲律宾等国的20%-50%关税将于8月1日生效，可能直接推高铜、半导体等关键原材料价格，进而影响 美国制造业成本。然而，多数官员强调，当前经济数据（如6月非农就业超预期、服务业PMI回升）显示美国经济仍具韧性，过早降息可能削弱美联储应对 未来风险的政策空间。 美联储会议纪要揭示的政策分歧，使黄金市场陷入短期波动与长期看涨的博弈中。尽管7月降息预期降温，但 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes suggest that most officials do not see an immediate need for interest rate cuts, but there is a general expectation for potential rate reductions later in the year if inflation pressures from tariffs increase [1][2] - The latest gold T+D price is reported at 769.21 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.67% increase, indicating a rebound in the gold market during the European trading session [1] - The market is closely watching upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Christopher Waller, who has previously expressed support for rate cuts, which could influence market expectations for the July policy meeting [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have rebounded after hitting a low, maintaining a downward trend but supported by a weekly upward trend channel, suggesting potential for further bullish rebounds if prices drop to support levels [3] - Key resistance levels for gold T+D are identified between 775-785 yuan per gram, while support levels are noted between 750-760 yuan per gram, indicating a range for potential price movements [3]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普希望美联储尽快削减美国利率，但无论如何作妖，他实际上都无法在短期内对借贷成本 产生太大影响。主要原因包括以下五个。 美联储主席只有一票 自20世纪50年代摆脱财政部的过度干预后，美联储官员就极力捍卫独立性，不会轻易屈从于政治压力。 美联储理事会改组耗时 此外，特朗普很难在短期内彻底重塑美联储理事会。理事会7名成员的任期长达14年且相互交错，目的 就是防止任何一任总统过度影响美联储。 在特朗普剩余任期内，仅有民主党任命的美联储理事库格勒的任期即将结束；其他3名民主党任命的成 员可留任至2030年代。 即便特朗普任命新主席，鲍威尔仍可继续担任理事（其14年理事任期还剩3年）。通常美联储主席卸任 后会退出理事会，但有一个例外：前主席马瑞纳·埃克尔斯（Marriner Eccles）1948年在杜鲁门总统施压 下辞去主席一职后，仍以普通理事身份留任3年，期间始终给杜鲁门制造麻烦。 美联储无法直接控制多数借贷利率 特朗普希望通过替换美联储主席鲍威尔，让顺从自己的人推动降息，但鲍威尔的主席任期要到2026年5 月才结束，且他坚称不会提前辞职。 即便鲍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate and appreciate in July 2025, projected to be in the range of 7.10 to 7.25 against the USD, influenced by various domestic and international economic factors [1][6]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - In June 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the range of 7.1575 to 7.1986, with the onshore rate between 7.1656 and 7.1895, and the offshore rate between 7.1575 and 7.1986 [2][3]. - The overall trend of the RMB is supported by the continued interest rate cuts by major global economies, which have positively impacted the RMB [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Factors - In May 2025, China's retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a steady growth in consumer demand and ongoing economic recovery [3]. - The launch of the domestically developed general-purpose processor, Longxin 3C6000, marks a significant technological breakthrough for China, enhancing its economic stability [3]. Group 3: International Economic Factors - Major economies, including the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank, have continued to lower interest rates, which has created a favorable environment for the RMB [2][5]. - Despite the stability in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, market expectations for future rate cuts have increased due to ongoing global monetary easing [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of China's economic growth, military advancements, and technological breakthroughs is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, supporting the RMB's stability [5]. - The anticipated passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US Congress, which could lead to significant fiscal pressure, may further influence market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5].

第一部分：大类资产核心观点简述 黄金：地缘方面难以实质性停火，叠加美联储极有可能在下半年重启降息模式，而美元在特朗普政府的"折腾"下开启贬值之路将是大概率事件。总体来看， 黄金牛市还未结束，下半年迎来新一轮大涨的概率大，中期目标上调至4200美元。 原油：地缘整体偏向降温正在挤压原油风险溢价，油价的影响因素回归基本面的可能性较大。欧佩克产油国集团已经逐步开始增产计划。由于超额增产的意 图以及高额的闲置产能，全球供需平衡表正在往供给过剩倾斜，油价易跌难涨，下半年油价维持60-70美元区间调整的可能性较大，极端的情况下，存在挑 战下方55美元的可能。 现货铜：最大的不确定性还是关税政策冲击，在关税阴影下，美铜持续且大幅溢价下正吸引全球其他地区铜源源不断运往美国，美国一年铜消耗大概160万 吨，进口铜约70万吨，对全球其他市场的影响在逐渐显现，LME铜持续去库由贴水转为大幅升水格局，精铜和废铜也出现紧张的现象。综合来看全球铜库 存处于偏紧状态，未来铜价大概率会上破5.30美元。 美股：美国和中国在关税问题上先后进行两轮谈判，6月29日美国总统特朗普宣布，与中国签订"和解协议"，关税政策对美股的冲击基本淡化，另外，下 ...