周二 A 股窄幅震荡，假日效应导致市场窄幅波动。周二 A 股小幅低开后进入窄幅震荡，全天波幅 有限，中小市值个股表现相对较好。上证指数距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之 遥，市场分歧有所加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。临近五一长假，市场担心长 假期间出现突发事件影响节后表现，因此总体表现相对谨慎。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资 开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管所谓"对等关税"的后续影响还 存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范围 加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化 也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等 关 ...

金十数据4月30日讯，4月29日，商务部部长王文涛与智利外交部长范克拉韦伦视频通话，双方围绕加强 中智经贸合作、应对美加征所谓"对等关税"等问题深入交换意见。王文涛表示，美方滥施所谓"对等关 税"，严重侵犯各国正当利益，破坏以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，冲击全球经济秩序稳定。中方对此 坚决反对，已采取反制措施坚定维护自身权益，捍卫国际经贸规则和国际公平正义。 商务部部长王文涛与智利外交部长范克拉韦伦视频通话 ...

Group 1 - The company AstraZeneca is facing potential fines related to unpaid taxes on imported cancer drugs, specifically $8 million for the drug Enhertu and up to $4.5 million for Imfinzi and Imjudo [1][1] - In the first quarter of this year, AstraZeneca reported total revenue of $13.6 billion, which was below analyst expectations of $13.8 billion, primarily due to lower-than-expected sales of oncology drugs [3] - The CEO of AstraZeneca, Pascal Soriot, stated that the impact of potential tariffs on imported drugs from Europe would be manageable, and the company aims to maintain its performance guidance for 2025 [3][3] Group 2 - AstraZeneca announced a $2.5 billion investment plan to establish its sixth global strategic R&D center in Beijing, reflecting the company's commitment to the Chinese market and confidence in its life sciences ecosystem [4] - The company has not disclosed any updates regarding the investigation of its former China president, who was taken away for alleged smuggling [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing historic lows as the 100-day mark of President Trump's second term approaches, with the S&P 500 down nearly 8%, marking one of the worst performances for a new administration in over 50 years [1] - The S&P 500 typically averages a 3.8% increase in the first 100 days of a new presidency, but the current performance deviates significantly from this historical trend [1][2] - Market expectations were initially high for Trump's second term, anticipating continued tax cuts and deregulation, but aggressive trade policies have led to a sharp decline in market sentiment [2] Group 2 - Following the announcement of tariffs on imports, the S&P 500 experienced a significant drop of 12.1% over four trading days, marking the worst decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - A temporary rebound occurred after Trump announced a pause on tariffs, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5%, the largest single-day increase since October 2008 [3] - Historical data suggests that if the first 100 days perform below average, the likelihood of a market decline increases, with an average annual drop of 5.5% [3][4] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs on corporate earnings and economic data is expected to become more apparent in the next 100 to 200 days, indicating potential economic pressures ahead [4] - Despite the concerning performance in the first 100 days, the market remains uncertain, with investors closely monitoring policy developments and economic indicators [4]

据《南华早报》报道，江苏省和浙江省的部分制造商已接到沃尔玛等美国主要零售商的通知，要求 其近日恢复发货。江苏省和浙江省是受中美贸易战重创的出口大省。 据报道，周一宁波一家大型文具和办公用品出口商收到沃尔玛的通知，恢复对美国的正常发货。 该公司表示，新进口关税的成本将由美国客户承担 。 ■ 关税成本由美国客户承担，沃尔玛通知中国供应商恢 复出货 自美国总统特朗普所谓"对等关税"以来，全球零售巨头沃尔玛的态度出现戏剧性变化。从最初要求 中国供应商自行承担高额关税，到短短20天后迫于库存压力选择自行吸收关税、恢复中国进货。 资料图。本文来源：财联社 ...

对等关税的本质是多人重复博弈，评估关税前景的核心不是计算税率。 对于美国而言，与中国这样的大国谈判并没有太多实际好处，更多是寻求面子上的让步，以便在政治上 有所交代。 向大国要"面子"，向小国要"里子"，索取经济利益。 这也是整个关税问题的核心目的， 并非像纳瓦罗、莱特希泽等理想主义者所期望的那样，通过一堵高高的关税墙来推动美国制造业回流和 自主产业化，而是通过获取经济利益解决美国内部的财政问题，让美国政府债务可持续。 一、"以牙还牙"的艺术 美国挑起关税战之后，中国"以牙还牙"的博弈策略，不仅给美国经济带来了额外的衰退担忧，也在破 解美国的谈判筹码。 今年4月，多家华尔街投行下调了美国经济增长预测，上调了美国经济衰退和美股下跌概率，因为美国 的破坏性政策将引发报复性关税，从而对商业情绪和供应链构成重大打击。 另一方面，"以牙还牙"策略为其他国家赢得了90天的缓和期，实则为中国企业争取到90天的转口贸易 时间窗口。在"压力测试期"内，制造业企业可制定贸易摩擦背景下的应对策略，并与供应商及客户们 进一步探索拓展出口转口的可能性。于中国而言，拉长博弈的战线意味着更低的博弈成本和代价。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人陈 ...

当涉及到切身利益时，马斯克自己也坐不住了，此时他化身为特斯拉老板了。他强烈呼吁美国应该与欧盟实施对等的零关税，建立所谓的"美欧零关税贸 易区"。但其实特斯拉在全球中国市场销量最好，还超过美国本地市场，为什么他不呼吁美中之间变成零关税呢?难道就因为他在中国有两所超级工厂吗？ 难道未来不受新关税影响吗？ 根据特斯拉官方及第三方数据，2024年其全球交付量约为179万辆，同比微降1.1%，但是其销售版图分析，其实中美两个市场才是最重要的，欧盟真的重 要吗？ 在美国销量62.3万辆，同比下降5.1% ，但是市场份额受混合动力车型挤压明显，Model Y的竞争优势在减弱。但是在中国市场，全年销量65.9万辆，同比 增长8%，占全球销量的36.7%4，首次超过美国成为最大单一市场。在欧盟市场，销量仅仅只有32.7万辆，同比暴跌10.5%，其中在德国、法国等核心市场 降幅超40%。 马斯克对媒体讲，他猛烈抨击支持加征关税的美国首席贸易顾问纳瓦罗。他自己说，如果建立零关税，他可以在欧洲好卖车。但是事情可不是这样的，原 来欧洲是特斯拉电池、电机等核心零部件的进口来源地，美欧关税增加将直接抬高供应链成本。 但是我国的钞机工厂已实 ...

斐济总理兰布卡日前批评美国对斐关税政策是"贸易封锁"，表示将努力寻求替代市场。"世界比美国 大，所以我们必须寻找新的进口来源和新的出口市场。幸运的是，世界上有很多友好国家愿意和我们进 行贸易。"美国4月初宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关税"，斐济面临32%的"对等关税"税率。此 后，美国暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收高额"对等关税"90天，但维持10%"基准关税"。(新华社) ...

中国说到做到，5天内接连退回3架波音飞机，这其中说明了什么？印度主动找上美国"接盘"，莫迪政府背后又有怎样的考量呢？ 由于特朗普政府推出所谓"对等关税"政策，主动挑起对华关税战，作为对美反制措施之一，我们这边明确要求国内航空公司停止接收美国波音公司的飞机， 并暂停购买相关设备和零部件，而我们这边也是说到做到。近日，美国波音公司首席执行官奥特伯格证实了一件事，那就是中国已经停止接收波音新的飞机 了。在短短5天时间里，我国航空公司就已经退回3架波音飞机的交付。24号上午，一架尚未交付国航的波音737Max飞机，从舟山波音完工中心飞回西雅 图。另外两架等待交付给中国厦门航空的波音飞机在20号和21号也退回了美国。 为什么波音公司的负责人要专门提到中国拒绝接收波音飞机这件事呢？说白了，就是因为中国的这一决定对波音公司的影响很大。主要体现在这些方面：第 一，中国一直以来就是波音公司的大客户，失去了中国市场，波音公司就等同于失去了一大收入来源。原本波音公司今年计划要向中国交付约50架飞机，现 在由于中国的拒绝接收，波音公司那边也只能尝试将这些飞机转交其他客户；第二，在过去几年时间里，波音公司面临的负面舆论可以说是接连不断 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1]. - The soybean meal may oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The corn futures price will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and investors are advised to operate cautiously as the May Day holiday approaches [1]. - The copper price has rebounded to a key price zone, and investors should pay attention to risk avoidance due to the upcoming May Day holiday [2]. - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3][4]. - After the macro - negative factors are digested, a bullish approach can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5]. - The coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at low levels with limited upside space [6][7]. - The iron ore 2505 will mainly decline with oscillations in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [8]. - The WTI crude oil may have a downward price center in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 65 US dollars per barrel for the WTI main contract [9]. - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10]. - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to the weak demand [11]. - The soda ash futures may have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,140 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the period of US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3,450 yuan/ton (- 200), 3,580 yuan/ton (- 170), 3,650 yuan/ton (- 50), and 3,690 yuan/ton (- 10) respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved. US soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Brazilian soybeans are arriving in China, and the supply is expected to be loose. The inventory has dropped to a low point due to the mismatch between pre - May Day stocking and oil mill operations [1]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai regions are 2,128 yuan/ton, 2,333 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton and 2,200 - 2,220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the US tariff event on the outer market is weakening. The USDA report has lowered the US corn production and ending inventory, and the weakening US dollar index supports the upward trend of US corn. In China, the supply pressure has eased, but the downstream demand is weak, which restricts the rise of corn futures prices [1]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,440 - 77,690 yuan, down 580 yuan, with a premium of 150 - 210 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.52, down 7.81 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, and the Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material impact is intensifying, and the copper price is at a stage of resonance [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 69,400 (- 200) yuan/ton and 67,900 (- 200) yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate is declining. The supply is increasing but at a slower pace, and the low - cost lithium salt from salt lakes may enter the market. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has been accumulating [3]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the contango structure is weakening. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand from steel mills is weak, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is low, and the profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [6][7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts iron ore index is 99.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 763 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is mixed, with Australian shipments decreasing and Brazilian shipments increasing. The port inventory has decreased, and the demand from domestic steel mills has increased but the procurement is still cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the US tariff policy restricts the upward space [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has improved, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC+ has announced compensation production cuts, but the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" still exists. OPEC has lowered the global demand growth forecast, and the second - quarter demand may be affected by the trade war [9]. Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has affected China's tire and automobile exports. The domestic and Southeast Asian rubber supply is abundant, and the demand may be suppressed by the US tariff on automobiles [10]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The PVC production enterprise operating rate has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [11]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,418.44 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash production is relatively stable, the output has little fluctuation, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is average. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is still weak [12].