Group 1 - The market sentiment is cautious ahead of the important US inflation data, with traders delaying large-scale positions for more guidance [2] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will directly influence the Federal Reserve's future policy path, impacting the US dollar and gold prices [2] - Gold's performance is highly dependent on interest rate expectations and dollar fluctuations, with safe-haven demand providing solid support for gold prices [2] Group 2 - Technically, gold remains in a bullish short-term trend, rebounding from the vicinity of the 200-period simple moving average [3] - A breakout above the $3350 resistance zone would confirm further upward momentum, targeting the $3380 area and potentially reaching the $3400 round number [3] - Conversely, if gold falls below the $3320 short-term support, a bearish pattern may establish, with potential declines to the $3245 monthly low or even down to the $3200 area for new support [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has shown a decline of 0.47% as of June 10, 2025, with a latest price of 7.66 yuan and a trading volume of 15.0177 million yuan. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, indicating a positive outlook for gold prices driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Market Trends - As of the end of May, China's official gold reserves stood at 7.383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), reflecting an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) month-on-month [1]. - Zhejiang Securities anticipates further increases in gold reserves, emphasizing the positive impact of central bank purchases on gold prices in the medium to long term [1]. - Recent reports from Caixin Securities highlight the fragility of the economic recovery in the U.S., with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.9 and ADP employment growth falling short of expectations, which may influence gold demand as a safe haven [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics of Shanghai Gold ETF - As of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold ETF has seen a 37.01% increase in net value over the past year, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [2]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.00% since inception, with the longest streak of monthly gains being 6 months and an average monthly return of 3.04% [2]. - The historical probability of profit over a 3-year holding period for the ETF stands at 100% [2]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The Shanghai Gold ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 2.51 as of June 6, 2025, ranking in the top 2 out of 7 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [3]. - The ETF has shown a relative drawdown of 0.17% year-to-date compared to its benchmark, suggesting lower risk in terms of drawdown among comparable funds [3]. - The management fee for the Shanghai Gold ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are relatively low compared to similar funds [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-10 地缘⻛险⽀撑⾦价 尽管美联储降息预期降温短期施压金价，但地缘政治风险及避险需求 支撑金价。 重点资讯： 1）据新华社，当地时间6月9日，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总 理何立峰与美方在英国伦敦开始举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 2）白宫经济顾问哈西特(Kevin Hassett)周一表示，美国三位最高贸 易谈判代表正寻求在伦敦握手言和，以达成中美同意的稀土协议。 3）民主党人和共和党人周日针锋相对。此前美国总统特朗普向洛杉 矶部署国民警卫队以应对当地大规模抗议活动。 价格逻辑： 投资者在中贸易谈判前保持谨慎，叠加持续的地缘政治风险，支撑避 险黄金。然而，市场对美联储今年大幅降息的预期降温，可能限制无 息黄金的上行空间。 周五公布的5月非农就业报告显示，新增就业13.9万人（预期13万， 前值修正为14.7万），失业率维持4.2%（符合预期），平均时薪增速 持平于3.9%（好于预期的3.7%）。数据公布后，市场对美联储年内降 息的押注减少，推动美债收益率走高，短期压制金价。但美元未能延 续非农后的涨势，主因特朗普持 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：今日关注美国5月非农就业、欧元区一季度GDP终值、欧央行官员密集讲 话。中美伦敦会谈开启，市场情绪乐观，美国5月消费者通胀预期全面下降，洛杉矶 动荡升级，中东局势紧张，银价上涨支撑金价震荡。沪金溢价维持至3元/克左右。 贸易谈判乐观，但避险需求仍存，金价仍将获得银价支撑。 2、基差：黄金期货774.72，现货772.01，基差-2.71，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 白银 1、基本面：中美伦敦会谈开启，银价继续大涨；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧 洲三大股指收盘小幅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the weak US non - farm payroll data but unexpected growth in employment wages have cooled the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, which has pressured precious metals. However, the LA riots caused by ICE's arrest of illegal immigrants and the short - term improvement in international trade situation have provided support for precious metals. The inflow of investment funds into the silver market has driven up silver prices, but the mid - term growth of the global economy and silver's industrial demand are still weak, so the purely capital - driven rise may not be sustainable. Gold's safe - haven demand has been greatly boosted, with increased volatility but a good mid - line upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - In the mid - term, Trump's equal - tariff measures in April triggered a global financial market tsunami and accelerated the restructuring of the global economic and trade system. Multiple safe - haven demands drove the gold price to soar. Although the gold price has corrected from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The factors driving the gold price up in the long and medium terms will continue to exist, but the short - term surge in the gold price and its high price - to - earnings ratio also mean significantly increased volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions. Traders with a short - position mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage trade [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The weak US non - farm payroll data and unexpected wage growth cooled the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, pressuring precious metals. The LA riots and short - term improvement in international trade situation supported precious metals. Investment funds flowed into the silver market, driving up silver prices, but the mid - term growth of the global economy and silver's industrial demand are weak. Gold's safe - haven demand was boosted, with increased volatility but a good mid - line upward trend [4]. - **Mid - term Market**: Trump's equal - tariff measures in April drove the gold price to soar. After a high - level correction, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price up will continue to exist, but the short - term surge and high price - to - earnings ratio lead to increased volatility. Investment suggestions are provided for different types of traders [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US California National Guard was deployed to LA to quell protests over the arrest of illegal immigrants, leading to conflicts with protesters. There are disputes between Trump and the California governor over this deployment [18]. - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that it is reviewing rare - earth related export license applications, and has approved a certain number of compliant applications and will continue to strengthen the approval work. Some temporary export licenses have been issued to rare - earth suppliers of certain US companies [18]. - US non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, with slow employment growth but steady wage increases. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has affected corporate planning, and the financial market has adjusted its bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts [19]. - The US has suspended the licenses of nuclear equipment suppliers to sell products to Chinese nuclear power plants [19]. - The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on more than 30 individuals and entities related to Iran for money - laundering through the global financial system [19].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on June 9, urging investors to manage risks and control positions as gold prices experienced a decline of approximately 1% on that day [1][2][3] - The exchange has issued risk warnings six times this year, with three occurring in April alone, reflecting significant market volatility during that month [2] - The global gold ETF saw a net outflow of 19.1 tons, valued at $18.3 billion in May, marking the first outflow since November 2024 [2][3] Group 2 - On June 9, both gold futures and spot prices fell by around 1%, with 13 out of 14 gold-themed ETFs also experiencing declines [3] - Despite the recent downturn, gold-themed ETFs have shown an overall increase of nearly 25% year-to-date, while gold stock ETFs have risen over 34% [3] - Central banks continue to show net inflows into gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking a continuous growth for seven months [3] Group 3 - Other precious metals like platinum and silver have gained momentum, with platinum prices surpassing $1,200 per ounce and silver reaching over $36 per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of 34% and over 25%, respectively [4] - The silver ETF in the U.S. has seen significant inflows, with a single-day increase of 2.2 million ounces in holdings [4] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices may indicate a broader trend, as investors seek more elastic alternatives to traditional safe-haven assets like gold [7] - The net long positions for both gold and silver have increased significantly, with gold net longs rising by 13,000 contracts to reach 130,000 contracts [7][8]

周一亚洲交易时段，美元指数稳居99.17高位，延续上周五的强劲走势。美国非农就业数据超出预期，给期待美联储降息的投资者泼了一盆冷 水。 **美元指数上周五收涨0.53%至99.20**，创下两周来最大单日涨幅。 与此同时，美国洛杉矶的大规模骚乱已进入第三天，特朗普部署2000名国民警卫队进驻洛杉矶，美防长甚至表示海军陆战队正"高度戒备"。** 这场美国内乱意外成为避险资产的临时推手**，黄金在亚市早盘小幅上涨至3317美元附近。 一份超预期的就业报告，一场突如其来的美国骚乱，全球外汇市场在避险与预期的角力中开启关键一周。 01 市场概览：非农引爆美元，黄金承压 上周五外汇市场经历剧烈波动。美国劳工部数据显示，**5月非农就业岗位增加13.9万个**，虽低于4月的14.7万，但超过预期的13万。 这份"**恰到好处**"的就业报告既显示劳动力市场略有降温，又证明经济韧性犹存，直接打击了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速调整押注：**交易员削减了2025年第三次降息的预期**，将首次降息时间推迟至9月。美债收益率应声飙升，10年 期美债收益率暴涨超10个基点至4.512%，为2010年来罕见涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - On June 6, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures market saw a significant increase, with the main contract rising nearly 4% and hitting a record high of 8,804 yuan/kg. The increase was driven by factors such as geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, growing industrial demand, and the undervaluation of silver relative to gold [3]. - The silver market remains uncertain. While geopolitical easing and a shift in Fed policy could curb price increases, long - term industrial demand from the new energy sector may support prices [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue a strong and volatile upward trend next Monday due to a phone call [7]. - Gold is in a short - term oscillatory pattern but is still bullish in the long run. It's advisable to buy on dips rather than chase the price [11][12]. - Iron ore is a strong black - series variety. Despite overvaluation risks due to weak reality, falling port inventories support the market, and a bullish and oscillatory view is appropriate [15][16]. - Glass needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy changes. Technically, it maintains a bullish and oscillatory view [17][18]. - Urea is expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term, with a daily production of about 205,600 tons and an 87.23% operating rate, and slow agricultural demand [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Silver Futures - **Price Movement**: On June 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose nearly 4% to a record high of 8,804 yuan/kg [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025, increased industrial demand from the new energy sector, and the undervaluation of silver relative to gold [3]. - **Outlook**: Uncertainty exists. Short - term price increases may be curbed, but long - term industrial demand from new energy could support prices [4]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Outlook**: Expected to continue a strong and volatile upward trend next Monday due to a phone call [7]. 3.3 Gold - **Market Pattern**: Currently in a short - term oscillatory pattern, but bullish in the long run [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy on dips rather than chase the price [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Despite overvaluation risks from weak reality, falling port inventories support the market, remaining a strong black - series variety [15][16]. - **Technical View**: A bullish and oscillatory view is appropriate as the support level was tested effectively today [15]. 3.5 Glass - **Market Condition**: Supply has no major cold - repair due to losses, high factory inventories, and weak downstream demand. It awaits real - estate stimulus or major policies [17][18]. - **Technical Outlook**: Maintains a bullish and oscillatory view with a high - closing positive line today [17]. 3.6 Urea - **Supply**: Domestic daily production is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23% [19]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand is slow, and downstream participation is limited [19]. - **Price Trend**: Expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term [19].

Group 1 - The gold market experienced increased volatility due to multiple factors, with spot gold prices dropping over 1% on Friday but still recording a weekly gain of 0.8%, indicating a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and a strengthening dollar [1] - The overall trend for the week was upward, driven by risk aversion, but prices fell sharply on Friday following stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data [1] - Spot gold closed at $3,316.13 per ounce on Friday, down 1.1%, while U.S. futures gold fell 0.8% to $3,346.60 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 139,000 non-farm jobs were added in May, exceeding market expectations of 130,000, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% [2] - Analyst Edward Meir indicated that the data suggests the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, with financial markets anticipating the earliest cut in September and only two cuts by 2025 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased, putting pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, spot gold is at a critical area, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and prices near the middle band at $3,296.92, indicating short-term pressure [2] - A drop below the middle band could test the lower band at $3,171.53, while a rebound could challenge the upper band at $3,422.30 [2] - The 50-period moving average at $3,234.79 provides support, but the MACD indicator shows insufficient bullish momentum, with short-term direction dependent on the middle band [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand, with recent developments indicating a potential for further price increases in the coming years [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - On June 5, silver prices experienced a sharp increase, with London silver reaching $36.053 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [3]. - The announcement by the Trump administration to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to heightened speculation that similar measures may be applied to other metals, including silver, thus increasing its demand as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Silver futures saw a significant increase in long positions, with total holdings rising by $2.8 billion, the largest two-day increase in the past year [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Demand - The recent economic uncertainty, highlighted by a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, has led to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3][6]. - Industrial demand for silver remains strong, particularly in clean energy technologies, with the silver market facing a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3][6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Considerations - Analysts predict that the price gap between silver and gold may narrow from the current 27 percentage points to 10-15 percentage points over the next 1-2 years, driven by various economic factors [6][7]. - The current gold-silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, suggesting that silver may be undervalued relative to gold, which could attract investors and drive prices higher [6][7].