螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间震荡 ◼ 逻辑：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间震荡 | 2025/12/26 | | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | | 需求 | （万吨） | | | | | 库存 | | | | 现货 | 主力 | 01-05 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | | | 环差 | 同差 | | 当周值 | | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | 环差 | | | 同差 | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | 利润 | | 铁水 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [5] Core Views - The polyester chain is experiencing an upward trend, with expectations for the silicone industry to start recovering [2][10] - Supply-demand expectations are improving, particularly for PX and PTA, with no new capacity expected in 2026, leading to a tighter supply situation [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of industry collaboration and self-discipline among major manufacturers to stabilize prices and improve profitability [3][10] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The PX industry has seen no new capacity additions for two consecutive years, with limited supply expected until new projects in Q4 2026 [2] - PTA has officially ended its rapid expansion phase, with no new capacity expected in 2026, and some companies are proactively reducing production [2] - The polyester filament industry is benefiting from a mature self-discipline mechanism, leading to significant price increases [3] 2. Industry Performance - The chemical sector has shown strong performance, with the industry index rising by 4.2% in the last week, outperforming major indices [24] - Year-to-date, the chemical industry index has increased by 33.6%, indicating strong recovery potential [24] 3. Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Tongkun Co., New Fengming, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical in the polyester sector [9][21] - For the silicone sector, recommended stocks include Xinsilicon, Dongyue Silicon, and Hoshine Silicon [10][21] 4. Price and Margin Analysis - Recent price increases for PX and PTA have been noted, with PX prices reaching 7318 RMB/ton and PTA at 5040 RMB/ton, marking significant week-on-week increases [1][2] - The report anticipates that the profitability of polyester products will improve due to better supply-demand dynamics [2][3]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - The international passenger turnover for October and November 2025 is expected to grow by 12.9% and 14.3% year-on-year compared to the same months in 2019, indicating a recovery in demand [1][2] - The average economy class ticket price for the New Year holiday in 2026 is projected to be 597 RMB, reflecting a 1.1% decrease from 2024 and a 6.7% increase from 2025 [1][2] - The logistics sector is benefiting from explosive growth in overseas e-commerce, with TikTok Shop's GMV in Southeast Asia increasing by 2.7 times during the "12.12" promotion [1][3] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index rose by 1.37%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.51 percentage points [1][19] - The top three performing sub-sectors were shipping, public transport, and logistics, with increases of 4.70%, 4.65%, and 1.96% respectively [1][19] Air Travel - From January to November 2025, civil aviation passenger turnover reached 12,865.80 billion person-kilometers, a 19.6% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [2][12] - Domestic routes saw a 25.6% increase, while international routes grew by 3.6% [2][12] - The aviation sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [2][12] Shipping and Ports - The oil and dry bulk freight rates are experiencing a decline, with VLCC rates significantly dropping due to seasonal factors and lower-than-expected January loading volumes [3][13] - The dry bulk shipping index continues to fall, with a focus on the impact of new iron ore production and geopolitical developments [3][14] - The LNG transportation market is anticipated to follow a different cycle compared to larger vessels, with new projects in hydrogen production [3][16] Logistics - The logistics sector is focusing on two investment themes: overseas expansion driven by e-commerce growth and internal competition management amid slowing industry growth [3][17] - The express delivery volume showed a modest increase of 1.6% year-on-year in December, indicating a competitive landscape where leading companies are expected to gain market share [3][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puxin Co., Sanjike Tree, and Beixin Building Materials [9]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector saw a 3.64% increase from December 22 to December 26, 2025, with notable gains in glass fiber manufacturing (10.06%) and glass manufacturing (5.04%) [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of demand stabilization and the implementation of anti-involution policies, particularly in the context of housing policy adjustments in Beijing [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the cement market, with a focus on the need for macroeconomic improvements, especially in the housing sector, to stimulate demand [2][18]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of December 26, 2025, the national cement price index was 352.28 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous week [2][18]. - The cement output for the week was 2.877 million tons, down 2.73% week-on-week, indicating a continued contraction in demand as temperatures drop and the Spring Festival approaches [2][18]. - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns was 37.42%, reflecting a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [2][18]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of December 25, 2025, was 1140.08 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.98% [3]. - Inventory levels for glass products increased, with a total of 55.33 million heavy boxes reported, up 38,000 boxes from the previous week [3]. Glass Fiber Industry Tracking - The market for non-alkali glass fiber remained stable, with average prices holding steady [7]. - Demand for glass fiber products has shown signs of weakness, with reduced purchasing intentions from downstream buyers [7]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with prices for upstream materials like aluminum alloy and acrylic remaining stable [7]. - The report suggests that consumer building materials will benefit from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies [1]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remained stable, with a weekly production of 2,392 tons and an operating rate of 79.47% [8]. - The industry continues to face challenges with profitability, as the average production cost was reported at 105,900 CNY/ton, leading to negative margins for many companies [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply tightness logic continues to unfold, with copper prices breaking through historical highs. This week, copper prices increased significantly, with London copper rising by 3.22%, Shanghai copper by 5.95%, and New York copper by 6.71%. London copper surpassed $12,000 per ton, while Shanghai copper exceeded ¥100,000 per ton. Supply-side concerns are heightened due to potential strikes at Chilean copper mines, which could exacerbate the tight supply situation. The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5][4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% and the non-ferrous sector increasing by 6.43%, outperforming the index by 4.54 percentage points. Lithium, copper, and tungsten sectors showed the highest gains, while rare earths and tin lagged behind [11][12] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices rose by 3.22%, Shanghai copper by 5.95%, and New York copper by 6.71%. London copper inventory decreased by 2.10%, while Shanghai inventory increased by 16.59%. The smelting fee was reported at -$44.9 per ton, indicating a loss in copper smelting profits [26][23] 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.48%, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 1.57%. Inventory levels for both London and Shanghai aluminum saw slight increases. The price of alumina fell by 2.36%, while aluminum smelting profits rose by 5.70% to ¥6,402 per ton [37][37] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - London lead prices increased by 0.63%, and Shanghai lead prices rose by 3.00%. London zinc prices rose by 0.75%, while Shanghai zinc prices increased by 0.52%. Smelting processing fees decreased by 6.25% to ¥1,500 per ton, with mining profits rising to ¥10,004 per ton [51][51] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - London tin prices fell by 1.26%, while Shanghai tin prices decreased by 0.26%. Conversely, London nickel prices rose by 5.82%, and Shanghai nickel prices increased by 9.33%. Nickel iron prices rose by 2.23%, with domestic nickel iron enterprises reporting profits of ¥5,955 per ton [64][64] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices saw significant increases, with lithium spodumene rising by 13.05% to $1,490 per ton, and lithium carbonate increasing by 14.59% to ¥111,900 per ton. However, the smelting profit margins for lithium were negative [80][80] 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices also increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.20% to $24.50 per pound, and domestic cobalt prices increasing by 5.45% to ¥445,000 per ton. The profit margins for domestic smelting plants rose significantly [93][93]

Core Insights - The photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing industry is experiencing a cyclical low, with "anti-involution" becoming a core consensus and transformation path for the entire industry. Prices in the main PV supply chain are gradually stabilizing and even improving in the second half of 2025, driven by self-regulation and production cuts by companies [1][2]. Price Stabilization and Market Dynamics - Since July, multiple policy measures have been implemented to guide the PV industry towards a high-quality development phase focused on technological innovation. Core material prices, such as silicon, have shown signs of recovery, with the price of polysilicon contracts doubling since the end of June. The price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has increased by approximately 40% compared to early Q3 [2][3]. - The average price of N-type polysilicon has risen by about 54% compared to the end of Q2, indicating a significant upward trend in prices due to supply contraction, demand recovery, and rising costs [2][3]. Industry Self-Rescue and Transformation - The industry is undergoing a bifurcation, where technologically advanced companies are recovering profitability, while less efficient firms are exiting the market. Companies are focusing on cost control and improving production efficiency as part of their self-rescue strategies [4][5]. - Leading firms like LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. are enhancing their operational capabilities through technological innovation and product upgrades, shifting the focus from price competition to value competition [4][5]. Financial Performance and Recovery Indicators - The financial performance of PV manufacturers is showing signs of improvement, with 14 out of 21 listed companies in the main PV supply chain reporting positive net profit growth in Q3. For instance, Daqo New Energy reported a 24.75% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3, with a net profit turnaround [5][6]. - The stabilization of prices in the supply chain has been a key factor in reducing losses for manufacturers, particularly in the upstream silicon and wafer segments, where price increases have significantly improved gross margins [6]. Future Outlook and Challenges - The current recovery in the PV industry is still fragile, with terminal demand not fully restored and overcapacity issues remaining unresolved. The market is expected to face challenges as the "anti-involution" governance enters a critical phase, with 2026 being a pivotal year for the industry [1][6].

转自：贵州日报 加快破壁清障 让要素"活"起来 12月，来自青海的1876万千瓦时绿色电力，通过市场化交易，跨越数千公里直达吉林，点亮东北"夜经 济"。 青海绿电首次送达东北地区，背后是青海、北京、吉林"三网"联动，共同达成跨省跨区中长期外送电力 交易。 今年以来，全国统一电力市场建设按下"加速键"：跨经营区电力交易加速落地，南方区域电力市场开展 连续结算运行，省间现货市场更加成熟……破除壁垒、统一规则，实现电力资源高效配置，这正是全国 统一大市场建设的生动实践。 培育全国一体化数据市场、建设统一的医疗服务市场……各地各部门正加快消除影响资源要素高效流转 的卡点堵点。 11月，河南首宗"国有+集体"建设用地跨权属组合供应成交，"同权同价"激活集体土地资源价值，企业 拿地周期缩短60%。 一年来，土地要素市场化配置持续优化，农村集体经营性建设用地入市改革全面提速，房地一体宅基地 确权登记颁证加快推进，进城落户农民合法土地权益得到有效保障……存量土地资源被逐步唤醒，破解 农村土地"沉睡"困局。 建设全国统一大市场是构建新发展格局的基础支撑和内在要求。 市场基础制度不断健全，市场设施互联互通持续增强，商品服务和资源 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a unified national market is essential for establishing a new development pattern in China, with significant progress made over the past year in breaking down barriers and enhancing market efficiency [1]. Group 1: Market Development and Integration - The national unified electricity market has accelerated, exemplified by the successful cross-regional electricity trading between Qinghai and Jilin, enhancing resource allocation efficiency [2]. - Various regions are implementing measures to facilitate the efficient flow of resources, such as the launch of a technology transaction platform in Hunan and a talent-sharing mechanism in Zhengzhou [3]. - The market-oriented allocation of land resources has improved, with significant reforms in rural collective land use, leading to a 60% reduction in land acquisition time for enterprises [2]. Group 2: Breaking Down Local Protectionism - Local governments are encouraged to adopt long-term strategies to prevent closed-off local economies, with initiatives like remote enterprise migration services being implemented [5]. - The Long Triangle region has achieved remote cross-province business registration, streamlining the process for companies relocating [5]. - Efforts to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation are ongoing, with various provinces actively working to enhance domestic economic circulation [5]. Group 3: Addressing "Involution" in Competition - The introduction of a new pricing mechanism in the national drug procurement process aims to prevent abnormal low pricing that disrupts market order [7]. - Regulatory measures are being strengthened to maintain fair competition, with the implementation of the Fair Competition Review Regulations [9]. - Industries are encouraged to shift from price competition to value creation, with significant investments in innovation and technology observed in sectors like high-tech manufacturing [12].

2026 年通胀形势中，一个不容忽视的技术性因素值得关注：CPI（居民消费 价格指数）统计中的基期权重调整，可能对通胀读数产生上行助推作用。 这一影响根植于我国 CPI 的统计制度设计。在计算过程中，各类商品与服务 的数量在基期确定后即保持固定，不随价格变动而调整。这意味着，在实际 生活中，当某种商品价格下跌时，居民往往倾向于购买更多数量，其消费支 出占比的降幅会小于价格降幅；但在 CPI 核算中，由于数量固定，该商品在 总消费篮子的金额权重会完全跟随价格同步下降，导致其统计权重持续偏离 实际消费结构。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月27日 宏观经济周报 当基期调整遇上价格回暖 市场走势 以 2021-2025 年周期为例，肉类等部分商品价格经历显著且持续的下跌。在 这一过程中，其在 CPI 中的权重已被系统性压低，明显低于居民实际消费占 比。进入 2026 年，随着统计基期例行更新，各分项权重将迎来修正，以反 映最新的实际消费结构。这意味着过去几年价格下跌明显的品类，其统计权 重将面临一次性的明显上调。 恰逢 2026 年政策重心强调"反内卷"与推动价格合理回升，预计部分此前 承压的商品和服务价格将趋于 ...

工业利润增速放缓，新质生产力增速加快 ——2025 年 1-11 月工业企业盈利数据的背后 核心观点 2025 年 1-11 月工业企业利润增速有所放缓，工业品价格修复不足、内需放缓是主因。 结构上，新质生产力成为利润驱动主力，高技术制造业、装备制造业利润增速带动明 显，其中"人工智能+" 带动的电子工业专用设备、航空航天相关设备制造和智能消 费设备制造表现亮眼，此外，有色行业受市场需求带动保持两位数增长。另一方面， 我们再次提示，"反内卷"节奏和力度相较 2016 年供给侧改革有较大差异，在全国统 一大市场框架下，更侧重于供给的高质量优化而非简单的产能出清，侧重于使用市场 化、法制化手段引导"内卷"领域将价格回归成本线以上竞争，遏制降低质量以次充好 的恶性低价竞争，有助于促使工业利润增速回稳。 ❑ 工业利润增速放缓，内需、价格支撑偏弱 2025 年 1-11 月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 0.1%（前值 1.9%），其中 11 月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%。我们认为，10 月以来内需有所放缓、 工业品价格仍然偏低对工业利润增速支撑不足，从两年平均增速来看，11 月工业 利润累计同比增速两 ...