1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than market expectations, cooling the expectation of an interest rate cut this year. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act restricts the 45Z tax credit to North - American sourced raw materials, and the EPA's proposed policy boosts the use of vegetable oil in biodiesel, expanding US soybean oil demand. Brazil raised the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% in June 2025. Indonesia's B40 policy is partially completed, and it plans to implement the B50 plan in early 2026. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, supply - demand is expected to tighten [3][42]. - India's palm oil imports in June reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase. China's cumulative palm oil imports from January to May were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average of 1.17 million tons. With the arrival of ships from May - June, inventory increased, but there are fewer purchases after July. US soybean crop ratings are good, domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and rapeseed oil is at a high level and in a slow destocking phase [3][42]. - The US June non - farm data exceeded expectations, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Trade policy uncertainty may exacerbate market volatility. Although Israel and Iran signed a cease - fire agreement, geopolitical risks still exist and may impact oil prices. In the third quarter, during the production - increasing season, the supply - demand double - increase pattern may limit the upside, with overall oscillatory operation. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, combined with the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the implementation of biodiesel support policies in relevant countries, the price center may rise [3][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - In the first half of 2025, palm oil prices shifted from a decline to an oscillatory range, with the overall price center moving down. From January to February, prices first declined due to the non - implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy and high - price suppression of demand, then rose due to post - Spring Festival restocking and India's Ramadan备货 demand. In March, prices oscillated, influenced by both negative and positive factors. In April, US tariff policies and concerns about the economy, along with the entry of the production - increasing season, dragged down prices. From May to June, there was no obvious driving factor, and the market fluctuated. From mid - June, prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and the US biodiesel policy, then retreated and entered an oscillatory phase [8][9]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 69,000 tons; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase. Reuters' survey predicted that in June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory would be 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from May; production would be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease; and exports would be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase [14]. 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In June 2025, according to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.65%. MPOA estimated a 4.69% decrease in production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease in production by the end of June. Different institutions' data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased compared to May [17][18]. 3.2.3. Indonesia's Situation - In April 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.9 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory was 3.05 million tons [23]. 3.2.4. India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In May 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase. Palm oil imports were 590,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. In June, palm oil imports reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase [26][28]. 3.2.5. China's Oils and Fats Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average. Cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.025 million tons, and cumulative sunflower oil imports were 228,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils were 1.983 million tons [35][37]. 3.2.6. Domestic Oils and Fats Inventory - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.22 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. Soybean oil inventory was 955,200 tons, palm oil inventory was 537,400 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 727,400 tons [39]. 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The report reiterates the factors mentioned in the core viewpoints, including the US economic situation, biodiesel policies in different countries, production and inventory changes in Malaysia and Indonesia, and import situations in India and China. It points out that in the third quarter, the market may oscillate, and in the fourth quarter, the price center may rise [42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 8th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodity futures rose, with SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rising by 7% [2][10][13] - The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), poly - silicon, and silicon metal, while the top three decliners were egg, ethenylbenzene, and rapeseed meal [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On July 8th, equity index futures increased, CGB futures decreased. Among commodity futures, there were more gainers. SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rose 7%. The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe) (7.2% increase, 1.6% month - on - month open interest increase), poly - silicon (7.0% increase, 5.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and silicon metal (2.8% increase, 0.6% month - on - month open interest increase). The top three decliners were egg (1.3% decrease, 4.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), ethenylbenzene (1.1% decrease, 0.9% month - on - month open interest decrease), and rapeseed meal (0.9% decrease, 0.4% month - on - month open interest increase) [10][11][13] 3.1.2 Daily Rise 3.1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On July 8th, silicon metal rose 2.8% to 8215 yuan/ton. The fundamental surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the price rebound was driven by policy expectations. Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment was strong, but adjustment risks due to sentiment cooling should be guarded against. Northwest factories' sudden production cuts strengthened price support. If the production - cut scope expanded, July's supply - demand situation might improve marginally; otherwise, the oversupply pressure would be hard to ease. In the southwest, the resumption of production was slower than in previous years, but some factories had restarted. As prices rose, enterprises' willingness to resume production and hedge increased, which might exacerbate supply - side pressure. Demand was weak, and inventory might accumulate again [17][18][20] 3.1.2.2 Aluminium Oxide - On July 8th, aluminium oxide rose 2.8% to 3110 yuan/ton. There was no short - to - medium - term shortage of bauxite, and operating capacity and inventory were gradually recovering. Market sentiment was volatile, with more spot inquiries but a strong wait - and - see atmosphere in transactions. Warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and there were concerns in the futures market. The long - term logic focused on bauxite prices. Short - term sentiment was volatile, so it was advisable to wait and see in the short term. If market sentiment faded in the medium - to - long term, one could cautiously short far - month contracts [21][23] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Ethenylbenzene - On July 8th, ethenylbenzene fell 1.1% to 7276 yuan/ton. In a period without clear driving factors, it fluctuated in a narrow range. Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, crude oil prices fell, and market bullish sentiment weakened. The spot supply - demand weakened, and port inventories increased, but the end - of - month short - squeeze sentiment was strong. Fundamentally, supply returned, demand weakened, and the market was moving towards inventory accumulation. The fundamentals of pure benzene improved marginally. Two points should be noted: the low inventory level of the ethenylbenzene industry chain and the better fundamentals of pure benzene from July to August [26][27][29] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 7th local time that she expected to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues between China and the U.S., and the two sides would discuss expanding cooperation [34] - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will pay an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Premier Li Qiang [34] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect, including expanding the scope of participating institutions in Southbound Trading Connect and optimizing the offshore RMB bond repo business [35] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has been cooperating with mainland regulatory authorities to promote the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the trading scale of RMB - denominated Hong Kong stocks is expected to rise [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79745 with a basis of 125, indicating a premium over futures, which is considered neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 5100 to 102500 tons on July 8, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3039 tons to 84589 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, suggesting a bullish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, but the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the Fed's slowdown in interest rate cuts, high - level inventory reduction, uncertainties in US trade tariffs, and geopolitical disturbances, and a 50% US copper tariff overnight, market volatility has intensified [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Copper fundamentals are neutral due to smelting production cuts, scrap copper policy changes, and stable manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis is neutral with a spot premium over futures [2]. - Inventory changes are neutral as both total and SHFE inventories increased [2]. - The price trend is bullish as the closing price is above the rising 20 - day moving average [2]. - The main players' position is bearish with a net short position that is decreasing [2]. - Market expectations are volatile due to Fed policy, inventory changes, trade tariffs, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is expected to be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22]. Other Data - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [14]. - Processing fees are falling [16].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global precious metals market in 2025 is influenced by geopolitical events such as the stalled Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks and escalating tensions in the Middle East, creating a complex environment for investors [1] - The World Gold Council reports that global central bank gold purchases will exceed 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, with China's gold reserves increasing to 73.61 million ounces, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] - The occupation of mining hubs in the Democratic Republic of Congo is impacting palladium and cobalt supply chains, while trade tensions from Trump's tariff policies present operational challenges for investors [1] Group 2: Investment Challenges - The precious metals market is experiencing daily price fluctuations exceeding $100, with incidents like a single-day gold price swing of over $55 on March 18 due to geopolitical tensions, highlighting the risks of traditional trading platforms [3] - Data indicates that 73% of investors incur losses due to poor platform selection, emphasizing the importance of trading efficiency and fund security in the industry [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - The company has established a three-dimensional risk management system comprising regulatory compliance, technical safeguards, and fund custody, ensuring transparency and security for investors [4] - Each trade generates a unique transaction code, allowing real-time tracking and verification, akin to an "electronic ID" for transactions [4] - The platform employs advanced technology, including multi-layer firewalls and SSL encryption, maintaining a slippage rate of 0.05% under high-pressure conditions [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For entry-level investors, the company offers a micro-position design starting at 0.01 lots, allowing for small-scale testing of trading strategies with a focus on risk management [5] - Advanced investors can utilize a "core + satellite" allocation strategy, with 70% in gold ETFs and 30% in silver futures, capitalizing on projected silver price increases driven by solar demand [7] - The platform's multi-asset trading capabilities enable tracking of correlations between gold, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, automatically initiating hedging strategies when divergences exceed 15% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the sovereign credit environment in Asia has shown a structural differentiation trend, affected by multiple factors such as the spill - over effect of global tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and internal growth momentum changes. The differences in policy responses, industrial structures, and external dependence among Asian countries have led to a continuous divergence in sovereign credit trends [6]. - In East Asia, the credit foundation is relatively solid, but external demand weakness and structural fiscal pressures are emerging, and the overall regional risk is rising. In Southeast Asia, there are opportunities for diversified development, but credit risks show a differentiated trend. In South Asia, the foundation is relatively weak, and the pressure of sovereign credit differentiation is increasing [6]. 3. Summary by Directory East Asia - China: Although the tariff war may be an important variable affecting China's economy in the short term, the rapid development of new drivers and increased policy efforts can help mitigate risks. With sufficient government fiscal space, abundant foreign exchange reserves, and a large net international investment position, China's sovereign credit risk outlook is stable. Under different scenarios of US tariff cancellation, the impact on China's exports and GDP varies. The tariff war may also promote China's R & D investment, industrial upgrading, and regional cooperation [7]. - Japan: Tariff shocks weaken Japan's slow economic recovery, the Japan - US game increases the uncertainty of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes, and fiscal pressure intensifies, hindering Japan's fiscal consolidation. The sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The US tariff policies have affected Japan's auto industry, exports, and domestic demand, and the IMF has lowered Japan's economic growth forecast. The Japan - US trade negotiation also adds to Japan's fiscal pressure [8][10][11]. - South Korea: Due to its high trade dependence on both China and the US, tariff policies will significantly impact South Korea's exports. With long - term political turmoil and "top - level" hollowing - out, there is high uncertainty in domestic demand recovery and policy implementation, and the sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The IMF has lowered South Korea's economic growth forecast. The South Korean government has submitted a supplementary budget, which may increase the national debt and fiscal deficit rate, but the government debt risk is still controllable [16]. Southeast Asia - Overall situation: The regional centripetal force in Southeast Asia is increasing, and there are opportunities for diversified development under the great - power game. The deepening cooperation between China and ASEAN countries can mitigate external environment fluctuations and drive regional economic growth. However, some countries may face negative impacts from economic and geopolitical risk spillovers, and the sovereign credit risk shows a differentiated trend [20][21]. - Positive - potential countries: Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia may have new development opportunities through regional economic and trade cooperation, which will boost their sovereign credit levels. For example, Malaysia's cooperation with China and Singapore can support its economy; Indonesia's large population and downstream integration strategy can drive economic growth; Cambodia's cooperation with China can enhance its geopolitical status and economic growth [22][23][24]. - Negative - potential countries: Thailand and the Philippines face downward pressure on sovereign credit. Thailand's economic structural problems and industrial upgrading lag may lead to a slowdown in economic growth under external shocks. The Philippines' geopolitical risks are rising due to its military cooperation with the US and internal political struggles, which will affect its economic and trade cooperation and fiscal policies [26]. South Asia - Overall situation: South Asia has experienced rapid economic growth, sufficient demographic dividends, and strong reform momentum, with deficit and debt burdens showing a high - level mitigation trend. However, the uncertainty of tariff policies may exacerbate the differentiation of credit risks among South Asian countries [2][28]. - India: India's strong economic growth, diversified economic structure, and strong external payment ability support its sovereign credit. The deepening cooperation with the US may mitigate tariff risks and enhance long - term economic growth potential. However, the India - Pakistan conflict may have a negative impact on India's sovereign credit [29]. - Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka: These countries are constrained by factors such as lagging industrial structure upgrading, high fiscal and debt pressures, and domestic and geopolitical conflicts. Tariff policies may significantly impact their pillar industries and increase social volatility risks. Global monetary policy fluctuations may also pose challenges to their economic recovery and debt repayment. Cooperation with China can help mitigate external risks [2][30].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese exports to the U.S., affecting key industries such as automobiles and semiconductors, which has led to significant political backlash in Japan [3][5] - Japan's Prime Minister expressed strong opposition to the tariffs, indicating that this action undermines trade rules and has prompted Japan to seek negotiations to prevent escalation [3][5] - The tariffs are seen as a strategic move by Trump to pressure Japan into concessions, but it overlooks Japan's significant role in the global economy and its potential countermeasures [5][7] Group 2 - Japan holds over $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, giving it substantial leverage; a large-scale sell-off could destabilize U.S. financial markets and impact interest rates [7][9] - Japan's position in the rare earth supply chain is critical, as it could collaborate with China to restrict exports, severely impacting U.S. high-tech industries reliant on these materials [9][11] - Japan is diversifying its investments away from the U.S. and strengthening ties with ASEAN and India, indicating a shift in its economic strategy that could affect U.S. job markets and economic recovery [11][13] Group 3 - The trade conflict highlights the complexities of global economic interdependence and the potential for mutual harm, as tariffs could increase costs for U.S. consumers and businesses [7][15] - Trump's approach reflects a misunderstanding of the current geopolitical landscape, where Japan is not as easily pressured as other nations, leading to a potential long-term trade standoff [13][15] - Japan's response serves as a model for other countries facing similar pressures, emphasizing the importance of maintaining strategic autonomy and global partnerships [15]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, aiming to reshape market dynamics amidst a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and competition for resource pricing power [1][3][4] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decision - The increase in production is part of a gradual capacity release plan established by OPEC+ at the end of 2023, which aims to add 2.2 million barrels per day over 18 months, indicating a strategic response to changing market conditions [3][6] - The decision to accelerate production reflects a judgment that demand uncertainty is decreasing following the temporary cessation of U.S.-Iran conflicts, while competitive pressures from non-OPEC producers, particularly U.S. shale oil companies, are rising [3][4] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The collaboration between Saudi Arabia and Russia signifies a mature "limited alliance strategy," where both countries, despite differing geopolitical stances, find common ground in the oil sector [4][6] - The timing of the production increase is critical, coinciding with high U.S. interest rates and signs of economic slowdown, suggesting a proactive adjustment to counter Western energy policies [6][8] Group 3: Future Energy Landscape - The increase in production may signal a shift in global energy investment strategies, prompting a reassessment of capital allocations towards fossil fuels and green energy initiatives [8][9] - Saudi Arabia's recent diplomatic maneuvers, including engagement with China and a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reflect a strategic pursuit of energy stability and geopolitical influence [8][9] - The evolving role of OPEC+ is transforming it into a powerful platform that leverages energy influence to impact diplomatic, trade, and financial sectors, indicating a complex reconfiguration of traditional energy alliances [8][9]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-08 OPEC+增产超预期，库存区域分布不均 衡导致外强内弱，能化震荡 石油输出国组织及其合作伙伴（OPEC+）已决定在8月超预期增产54. 8万桶/日，且预计9月将进一步增产。该组织领导层对市场消化额外原油 的能力持乐观态度，理由是全球经济前景稳定，市场基本面健康。我们看 到当前原油累库具有区域性的不均衡，中国库存升至五年高点，欧美国家 石油库存依旧位于中位偏低水平。这可能导致OPEC+的增产一时间还无法 施压于原油市场。但是中长期，随着产量增速的逐步累计，原油的过剩将 逐步具有普遍性。 板块逻辑： 化工延续震荡整理态势，市场并未有明显趋势。液体化工周一公布库 存，EB和EG库存环比攀升，BZ库存周度略降；当前EB和BZ库存均位于五年 同期最高或偏高水平，EG库存依旧是五年同期最低。高库存格局下反弹空 间将有限，低库存则可能受到供给意外减量的提振。甲醇太仓基差过去一 周崩塌式下跌，这对盘面09合约带来些许压力。聚酯产业链对需求的担忧 依旧拖累期价。 原油：沙特上调OSP且美国推迟加征关税，油价反弹 LPG：盘面回 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价低开高走，其中 WTI 8月合约收盘上涨 0.93 美元至 67.93 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 1.28 美元至 69.58 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.87%。SC2508 以 512.0 元/桶收盘，上涨 10.7 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 2.13%。油价无视欧佩克+超预期增产利空，价格偏强 | | | | 运行。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，将对等关税生效 | | | | 日和谈判截止日期从 7 月 9 日延后至 8 月 1 日。此外，他还向 14 | | | | 个国家发出首批关税信函，8 月 1 日起将对日本和韩国加征 25% | | | | 关税，对马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦和突尼斯征收 25%的关税，南非 | | | 原油 | 则将面临 30%的税率，老挝和缅甸将被征收 40%的关税。 | 震荡 | | | 其他受影响国家还包括印尼 32%、孟加拉国 3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the U.S. imposing tariffs as a strategy to reduce trade deficits and regain leverage in international trade negotiations [1][4][6] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasizes the urgency of negotiations, stating that countries must act quickly to avoid reverting to previous higher tariff levels [3][6] - The U.S. aims to not only reduce trade deficits but also to bolster domestic manufacturing and increase fiscal revenue through high tariffs, particularly targeting industries like automotive and steel [6][12] Group 2 - The articles highlight the geopolitical implications of the tariff strategy, particularly in relation to China's rise and the potential threat it poses to U.S. economic dominance [6][11] - The concept of "Triffin's Dilemma" is introduced, explaining how the U.S. uses tariffs to manage trade deficits while maintaining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [9][12] - There is a growing trend towards "de-dollarization," with countries exploring alternative currencies for trade, which could undermine the U.S. dollar's dominance in the long term [11][12]