Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking industry, with expectations of a "moderately loose" monetary policy and "more proactive" fiscal policy supporting credit demand recovery in 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - In January 2025, new RMB loans reached 5.13 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 4.5-5.0 trillion yuan, marking the highest level for the same period in history, primarily driven by strong corporate credit performance [1][2]. - New social financing (社融) in January 2025 was 7.06 trillion yuan, also above the market expectation of 6-7 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 583.3 billion yuan, with significant contributions from RMB loans and government bonds [1][2]. - The report highlights a robust performance in corporate credit, with new medium to long-term loans amounting to 3.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150 billion yuan, and short-term loans increasing by 1.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280 billion yuan [1][2]. Summary by Sections New Loans and Social Financing - January 2025 saw new RMB loans of 5.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 210 billion yuan, and new social financing of 7.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 583.3 billion yuan [1][2]. - The increase in new loans was primarily due to strong corporate credit, with medium to long-term loans contributing significantly [1][2]. Corporate and Household Credit - Corporate medium to long-term loans were 3.46 trillion yuan, while short-term loans were 1.74 trillion yuan, indicating a strong demand for credit from businesses [1][2]. - Household credit showed signs of recovery, with new medium to long-term loans at 493.5 billion yuan, although this was a decrease compared to the previous year [1][2]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth was reported at 0.4%, maintaining positive growth, while M2 growth slightly decreased to 7.0% [5][6]. - The balance of social financing grew at a rate of 8.0%, remaining stable compared to previous months [5][6]. Deposits - New RMB deposits in January 2025 were 4.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 300 billion yuan but corporate deposits decreasing significantly [1][2].

特朗普作为美国新一届总统，"不当家不知柴米贵"，财政问题将是其新任期的重要考量。本文试图从财政角度，审视特朗普提出的新一届任期 的政策。 特朗普的四大节流方向：医改、停战、DOGE、非法移民。 从节流的角度来看，财政支出中国防和卫生健康方面的占比较高，可能是省钱的 重点。因此，一是可能对奥巴马医改进行重大改革，降低联邦政府对于医保的支出。二是通过停战，降低美国对外军事援助的费用。三是整顿 吏治，成立政府效率部，通过提高政府效率来削减预算开支。四是驱逐非法移民，拜登期间大规模非法移民的涌入造成了财政负担，控制非法 移民进入可能会缓解相关的财政压力。 若开源和节流进展不顺，特朗普有Plan B——加密货币。 如果前述财政举措落地不顺，财政赤字仍然明显上升，可能会对美元信心及其全球地 位带来冲击。那么不排除特朗普可能会借力比特币来对美元进行增信。近期特朗普已经表达了对比特币的支持，并称会让财政部持有比特币。 风险提示： 美国政策不确定性，地缘政治风险，全球经济金融风险 。 正文 特朗普2.0的政策重点——财政 特朗普2.0政策围绕财政问题展开，其中，财政刺激主要体现在对内大规模减税。根据美国国会预算办公室（CBO） ...