高盛集团将其今年年末金价预测上调至每盎司5400美元，理由来自私人投资者和各国央行的需求正日益 增强。 以达恩·斯特鲁伊芬（Daan Struyven）为首的高盛分析师在一份报告中写道，2026年12月的目标价已从 每盎司4900美元上调，预计各国央行今年每月将购买60吨黄金，而随着美联储降息，交易所交易基金 （ETF）的持仓量也将增加。 他们表示，各国央行"已开始通过传统的ETF购买方式，与私人领域投资者争夺有限的黄金供应"。 周三，黄金价格攀升至每盎司4800美元以上的历史新高，延续了急剧涨势。这次飙升重新引发了投资者 之间的辩论：在这辉煌的一年之后，金价还能上涨多少？ 除了高盛，其余市场预测也正变得越来越乐观。 工银标准银行高级大宗商品策略师朱莉娅·杜（Julia Du）认为，金价可能推高至7150美元。 对许多黄金多头而言，地缘政治仍是决定性的背景。MKS PAMP金属策略主管尼基·希尔斯（Nicky Shiels）表示，当前周期并不类似于投机性顶峰。她预计今年金价将达到5400美元。 她说："去年是历史性的一年，对整个贵金属市场来说有点像百年一遇的事件，白银价格基本翻了不止 一番，黄金上涨了60%， ...

Group 1 - As of the end of Q3 2025, global official gold reserves reached approximately $3.69 trillion, accounting for 28.9% of total official reserves, marking a new high since 2000 [4][27]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92% in Q3 2025, the lowest level since 1995, continuing a trend of being below 60% for over ten consecutive quarters [4][27]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been increasing its gold reserves consistently, with a total increase of 1,151 million ounces (approximately 358 tons) since November 2022 [3][11]. Group 2 - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves has been ongoing for 15 years, with a notable increase in purchases from emerging market central banks, which accounted for over 45% of net gold purchases in 2023 [5][23]. - In 2022, global central banks purchased a total of 1,081.9 tons of gold, with purchases remaining above 1,000 tons annually through 2024 [18][20]. - The World Gold Council's report indicates that the demand for gold from central banks has significantly increased since 2022, driven by geopolitical tensions and a shift in reserve asset preferences [23][24]. Group 3 - The PBOC's gold reserve stood at 7,415 million ounces (approximately 2,306.32 tons) by the end of December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 86 million ounces (approximately 26.75 tons) [8][11]. - The PBOC's strategy of increasing gold reserves is part of a broader trend among central banks to diversify their reserve assets, with gold being viewed as a stable and secure investment [12][15]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that over 90% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in 2026, with a significant portion anticipating a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves over the next five years [35][36].

Group 1 - The international gold market continues to rise, with spot gold prices historically breaking through the $4800 per ounce mark, reaching a new market high [1] - As of January 21, the daily increase in spot gold exceeded 1.62%, and the cumulative increase since the beginning of 2026 surpassed 10%, significantly impacting domestic gold investment and consumption markets [1] - The prices of both investment gold and brand gold jewelry have risen in tandem, affecting ordinary consumers [1] Group 2 - The price of gold jewelry in China has surpassed 1500 yuan, currently reported at 1506 yuan per gram, with notable increases from January 20 [2] - Specific brands such as Lao Feng Xiang, Zhou Sheng Sheng, and Lao Miao have reported price increases of 42 yuan, 41 yuan, and 38 yuan per gram respectively since January 20 [2][5][7] Group 3 - The surge in gold prices is attributed to rising market risk aversion and long-term structural support factors, with short-term triggers linked to geopolitical events such as those in Greenland [9] - The current price increase aligns with macroeconomic narratives including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, global "de-dollarization" trends, and continued accumulation by multiple central banks [9] - Despite potential short-term volatility, the core logic supporting gold prices remains solid, highlighting its strategic value as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios [10]

新高之后，黄金何去何从 - 联合解读会议 20260121 摘要 最近一段时间，地缘政治因素叠加，使得贵金属黄金价格不断上行，创出新高。 从宏观角度来看，黄金一直是我们持续关注并提示机会的资产。我们在过去几 年发布了一系列报告，从不同角度探讨黄金的供需关系和上涨机会。例如， 2020 年的《全球大放水会如何收场》、2021 年的《无用方为大用》、2023 年的《去美元化的黄金机遇》以及 2024 年和 2025 年的相关报告。这些报告 构成了我们持续推荐黄金的重要依据。 近年来，我们发现传统衡量黄金价值的 方法，如避险属性、美联储放水等，在长期解释力上有所不足。因此，我们回 归到供需基本面进行分析。在供给相对稳定的情况下，需求方面出现了显著增 量。居民通过 ETF 购买黄金，以及各国央行持续购金，是推动金价上涨的重要 因素。特别是在地缘政治波动加剧的背景下，具有避险属性的资产如黄金，其 需求进一步增加。 黄金市场未来趋势如何？ 从长期来看，黄金市场仍然具有很高的确定性。中国外汇储备中黄金占比已从 之前的一点几上升至接近 6%，但与全球平均水平 15%以上相比仍有较大差距， 这意味着央行购金需求尚未结束。在当前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. The stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. The precious metals market is expected to have significant fluctuations, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to be weakly volatile. The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to correct in the short term. The coking coal and coke futures may continue to be weak in the short term. The ferroalloy has an overall over - supply pressure, and long positions in the low - level range can be considered after the price decline. The crude oil is expected to continue to rebound after the correction. The fuel oil, polyolefin, and synthetic rubber may have long - position opportunities. The natural rubber is expected to have a wide - range shock. The PVC may be strongly volatile. The urea is expected to be in a strong - oscillating state. The PX may be in an oscillating adjustment. The PTA may be in an oscillating operation. The ethylene glycol may face pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. The short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. The bottle - chip may follow the cost side to oscillate. The soda ash is suitable for range operation in the short term. The glass is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. The caustic soda price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. The pulp market is under pressure due to inventory and weak demand. The lithium carbonate price may have greater short - term fluctuations. The copper price is at a high level and may be adjusted. The aluminum price may be adjusted at a high level. The zinc price may face pressure and correct. The lead price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The tin price may be strongly volatile. The nickel is in an over - supply pattern. The soybean meal may have long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and the soybean oil may consider liquidating long positions when the price rises. The palm oil may consider long - position opportunities after the correction. The rapeseed meal and oil may consider reducing and holding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The cotton price is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term. The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term. The apple price is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term. The live pig market may face supply pressure in the first quarter, and it is advisable to wait and see. The egg market can consider a positive spread strategy. The corn and starch may follow the corn market, and the supply pressure of corn needs to be further released. The log price is expected to be stable, and the futures may oscillate at the bottom [5][6][7][10][12][14][15][19][21][24][26][29][30][35][37][39][40][42][43][45][46][48][49][51][52][54][56][58][60][63][64][66][68][71][73][74][77][78][81][84][85][87][89]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 122.7 billion yuan. The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure due to factors such as the relatively low yield, the stable economic recovery, and the rising risk appetite [5][6]. Housing and Real Estate - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that the real estate market is city - based, and cities should use regulatory autonomy. The government will continue to implement policies according to cities, support reasonable financing of real estate enterprises and housing demand, and promote the stable operation of the real estate market [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank in Guangdong adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the fluctuation center of the stock index will gradually move up [7]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the speculative sentiment has heated up significantly, and it is advisable to liquidate long positions and wait and see [9][10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. In the medium term, the prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is decreasing year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year. The prices may continue to be weakly volatile, and the hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The demand for iron ore has decreased, the supply is under pressure, and the port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to correct in the short term [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coke enterprises has improved. The price increase of coke has been resisted by steel mills. The futures may continue to be weak in the short term [15]. Ferroalloy - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures had different performances. The supply of manganese ore has changed, the cost of ferroalloy has a narrow - range fluctuation, and the production and demand are both weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues, and long positions in the low - level range can be considered after the price decline [17][18][19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated higher. Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures, the number of oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US has adjusted its policy on Venezuelan energy. The crude oil is expected to continue to rebound after the correction [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The export volume of fuel oil from Singapore has increased, but the high inventory restricts the increase. The price difference in the spot market has improved, and long - position opportunities can be considered [23][24]. Polyolefin - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had mixed quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao declined. The northern cold weather and the southern labor shortage have affected the production, but the demand from high - end manufacturing for modified PP is stable. The profit of some enterprises has recovered, and long - position opportunities can be considered [25][26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The market rise was supported by the increase in butadiene price and high device operation rate, but the downstream demand was weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and long - position opportunities can be considered [27][28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, the demand from the tire industry has improved, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to have a wide - range shock [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. It is in the traditional off - season, but the policy expectation may make the market strongly volatile. The production capacity utilization rate has decreased, the demand from downstream enterprises has declined slightly, the cost has changed, and the inventory has increased. It may be strongly volatile [32][33][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The export demand and cost support make the price strongly oscillating. The daily production is high, the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is stable, and the inventory is lower than expected [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate has increased, and the cost side has support. It may be in an oscillating adjustment [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from the polyester industry has decreased, and the processing fee is at an average level. It may be in an oscillating operation [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply may increase, the port inventory is under pressure, and the expected arrival at the port has increased significantly. It may face pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [41][42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the sales have improved, and the terminal factory is digesting raw material inventory. It may follow the raw material price to oscillate [43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The load has decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the export growth rate has increased, and it may follow the cost side to oscillate [44][45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is abundant, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the downstream demand is average. It is suitable for range operation in the short term [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The supply is abundant, the inventory has decreased slightly, but the trader's inventory has increased. The market sentiment is stable, and it is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The supply is sufficient, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures declined slightly. The import pulp market sentiment is weak, the price trend is divided, the inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, and the demand from paper mills is weak [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market trading sentiment has cooled down. The supply is abundant, the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price may have greater short - term fluctuations [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures were flat. The macro - environment is complex, the supply is tight, but the high price has suppressed the demand, and the inventory has increased. The price is at a high level and may be adjusted [53][54][55]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures rose. The bauxite supply is abundant, the alumina market is oversupplied, the electrolytic aluminum production increase is limited, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high price. The price may be adjusted at a high level [56][57]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures rose. The raw material supply is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, the consumption is seasonally weak, and the price may face pressure and correct [58][59]. Lead - On the previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is low. The price may maintain a range - bound oscillation [60][61]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures rose. The supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory has decreased. The price may be strongly volatile [62][63]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The macro - environment is complex, the Indonesian nickel policy has changed, the supply cost may increase, but the downstream demand is weak, and it is in an over - supply pattern [64]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures declined slightly, and soybean oil futures rose. The South American soybean harvest is slow, the dollar has weakened, the domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, and the demand for soybean meal and oil has different performances. The soybean meal may have long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and the soybean oil may consider liquidating long positions when the price rises [65][66]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price has risen to a seven - week high. The export has increased, the production has decreased, the domestic import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years. Long - position opportunities can be considered after the correction [67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports have changed, and the inventory has increased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil can be considered to be reduced and held [69][70][71]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures declined. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable, the domestic cotton production is high but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the future planting area may be reduced. The demand is resilient. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term, and long positions can be considered after the correction [72][73][74]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and there is pressure from domestic and imported sugar. The price may be bearish in the medium - to - long term [76][77][78]. Apple - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term, and long positions can be considered after the correction [80][81][82]. Live Pig - On the previous trading day, live - pig futures declined. The northern and southern pig prices have declined, the supply is abundant, and the consumption change during the Spring Festival needs to be followed. The first - quarter supply may face pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see [83][84]. Egg - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The egg production cost has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply may be high in January. A positive spread strategy can be considered [85]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The northern port inventory is low, the supply pressure needs to be released, the demand for corn starch has improved slightly, and it may follow the corn market [86][87]. Log - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is abundant, the inventory has different changes, the demand from downstream processing plants has increased. The price is expected to be stable, and the futures may oscillate at the bottom [88][89].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a pullback after a rise, with significant trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Gold prices reached a historic high, leading to substantial gains in gold-related ETFs and funds [1][8]. Market Performance - On January 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.54% [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 177.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Gold Price Movement - Gold prices reached a peak of $4,888 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [8]. - Gold Stock ETF (517400) closed up by 6.33%, with a year-to-date increase of 26.73% [2][13]. - Gold Fund ETF (518800) closed up by 2.93%, with a year-to-date increase of 11.60% [5][13]. Geopolitical Influences - Increased geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. President Trump's statements regarding Greenland, have contributed to rising gold prices [8]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's remarks at the World Economic Forum highlighted a shift in the global order, which may impact investor sentiment towards U.S. assets [9]. Central Bank Actions - The Polish central bank approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold, emphasizing gold's role as a stable asset independent of other countries' monetary policies [10]. - Global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, supporting the bullish outlook for gold prices [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices could continue to rise, with some forecasting an average price of $4,741.97 per ounce by 2026, a 38% increase from the previous year [12]. - The long-term logic for gold remains strong, supported by factors such as geopolitical risks, a potential U.S. interest rate cut cycle, and ongoing central bank purchases [13].

据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1091.8元/克，上涨1.09%。 国际黄金价格报4787.3美元/盎司，下跌1.04%。 全球央行持续大规模增持黄金，2025年全球官方净购金量达297吨，多国央行黄金储备占比持续提升。 波兰央行批准150吨黄金增持计划，中国央行连续多月增持黄金，叠加全球去美元化进程加速，黄金作 为信用对冲工具的货币属性持续强化，成为支撑金价高位运行的核心长期逻辑，抵消短期情绪波动带来 的回调压力。 美联储独立性担忧叠加降息预期 彭博社报道美联储主席鲍威尔将出席最高法院关于特朗普罢免美联储理事库克的听证会，市场担忧裁决 若偏向特朗普将削弱美联储政策独立性，冲击美元信用。同时2026年市场普遍预期美联储将开启至少两 次降息，降低黄金持有机会成本，进一步助推资金涌入黄金资产，强化金价上涨动力。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 特朗普格陵兰表态降温避险情绪 当地时间1月21日特朗普在达沃斯演讲中表示，格陵兰是北美战略安全必需领土，将寻求 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley indicates that the role of the US dollar in the global system is gradually being weakened, but credible alternative currencies remain limited, making gold the biggest challenger to the dollar [1] Group 1: Dollar's Declining Influence - The international influence of the US dollar has declined across multiple indicators, including its share in central bank foreign exchange reserves and its usage in corporate and emerging market sovereign issuances [1] - Despite the decline, the dollar still holds the largest share in global reserves [1] Group 2: Gold's Rising Position - When considering gold, the situation changes significantly; gold's share in central bank holdings has increased from approximately 14% to between 25% and 28%, with this upward trend showing "no signs of slowing down" [1] - Risk premiums and hedging behaviors will continue to exert pressure on the dollar while supporting gold demand [1] Group 3: Policy Factors - The policy factors driving "de-dollarization" are currently in a state of "neutral to slightly accelerating," and the evolution of these policies in the short term will determine how far the de-dollarization trend will go [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Trump's speech in Davos and agreements on Greenland and NATO, along with the US Supreme Court's decision, led to the resurgence of the "TACO trade," affecting the dollar, gold, silver, US bonds, stocks, and commodities [2]. - Domestically, the 2025 economic data was better than expected, with A - shares showing a positive mid - term trend despite short - term adjustments [3]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, precious metals' gold - silver ratio is expected to rise, copper prices will adjust in the short term, aluminum prices will fluctuate at high levels, etc. [4][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Trump defined Greenland as a US core security interest, reached a "future agreement framework" with NATO on Greenland and Arctic security, postponed the February 1 tariff measures, and the US Supreme Court maintained the ban on immediately dismissing Fed Governor Cook. The "TACO trade" reappeared, with the dollar index rebounding to 98.8, gold and silver retreating, the 10 - year US Treasury yield falling to 4.24%, and US stocks rising over 1% after sharp fluctuations [2]. - Domestic: The 2025 economic data was better than expected, with export resilience exceeding expectations, consumption falling as expected, and investment being a short - term drag. Fiscal and monetary policies will moderately support the economy in Q1. A - shares rose on Wednesday, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 leading the gain by over 3%, and the market entering a stage of volume - shrinking and differentiation [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4836.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.78% to $92.95 per ounce. LBMA predicted that the average silver price in 2026 would reach $79.57 per ounce. However, after the explosive growth in 2025, the market is over - inflated. The gold - silver ratio is at a 50 - year low and is expected to rise, with gold outperforming silver in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper's main contract weakened, and LME copper sought support at $12,700. Trump's agreement with NATO on Greenland reduced market risk - aversion, causing copper prices to adjust downward. High copper prices dragged down domestic demand, and the global visible inventory increased. In the short term, copper prices will adjust, but the adjustment range may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 24,155 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The easing of geopolitical tensions and the increase in downstream purchases during price adjustments limited the decline of aluminum prices. The position in the Shanghai aluminum market rebounded, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [8][9]. Alumina - On Wednesday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2,672 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. A Henan alumina plant's maintenance had limited impact on production. The import window remained open, inventory continued to accumulate, and alumina supply remained in surplus, continuing its weak trend [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 22,895 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The cost of scrap aluminum did not decline further, and there was a game between supply and demand in the market. Cast aluminum prices will remain volatile [11]. Zinc - Trump's agreement on Greenland reduced risk - aversion, and the dollar rebounded, putting pressure on zinc prices. Teck's downward adjustment of the production guidance for the Antamina mine in 2026 and supply disruptions from the Iran situation tightened the supply of zinc ore. However, it is currently the consumption off - season, and high - priced raw materials suppress demand. Zinc prices will remain volatile [12][13][14]. Lead - Downstream battery enterprises' weak purchasing sentiment and high inventory suppressed lead prices. However, some smelters plan to increase production cuts, which will ease the decline in lead prices. Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [15]. Tin - Trump's agreement on Greenland reduced market risk - aversion, and the dollar rebounded, causing tin prices to give back some gains. High - level inventories decreased, but downstream demand for high - priced raw materials was weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, with macro - sentiment leading the price movement [16]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated. Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions weakened. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate [17]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Supply remained high, and port inventory increased. Demand was weak in the off - season. Although there was an expectation of pre - holiday inventory replenishment, the overall supply was stronger than demand, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double Coking) - On Wednesday, double coking futures fluctuated and adjusted. The supply of coking coal and coke was loose due to coal mine resumption, while downstream demand was weak. The supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.04%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.36%. Argentina's soybean - producing areas may turn dry, which may affect yields. Domestic pre - holiday inventory replenishment and oil mills' price - holding intentions support the market. Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [20]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 1.28%. From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month. Supply contraction and inventory reduction are expected to support palm oil prices, which are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [21][22].

2026年1月21日，瑞士达沃斯。 "从某种意义上说，美国未来可能会成为自身成功的受害者。"海菲尔说。 一场演讲与一个投资决定 海菲尔提到的第一个背景，并非来自金融市场，而是政治叙事。 在达沃斯论坛期间，加拿大总理、前英国央行行长马克·卡尼的一场演讲，被不少与会者反复提及。卡 尼在演讲中直言，以规则为基础的旧国际秩序已经结束，世界正在进入大国竞争时代。在这种环境下， 中等国家如果继续停留在对过去的怀旧之中，将难以应对现实挑战。 "我觉得他说出了很多人正在感受到、但还没有完全说清楚的东西。"海菲尔如此评价。在他看来，这种 判断并不只是政治层面的感慨，而正在逐步反映到投资决策中。 丹麦投资机构的举动，正是这种情绪在资产配置层面的体现之一。尽管体量有限，但在当前高度敏感的 市场环境下，任何"减持美债"的表态，都会被迅速放大解读。 美国总统特朗普时隔数年后再次出席达沃斯论坛，并发表了特别讲话。随后，在与北约秘书长吕特会晤 后，特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲八国加征关税。 同一天，第一财经记者来到瑞银集团位于达沃斯小镇的办事处，采访瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监马 克·海菲尔（Mark Haef ...