20 25年4月23日至24日，二十国集团（G2 0）主席国南非在美国华盛顿举 行今年第二次G2 0财长和央行行长会议。会议讨论了全球经济展望、完善 国际金融架构、应对非洲发展和增长困境等议题。财政部部长蓝佛安，中 国人民银行行长潘功胜出席会议并发言。 蓝佛安：关税战、贸易战进一步影响经济金融稳定 2025年4月23日至24日，二十国集团（G20）主席国南非在美国华盛顿举行今年第二次G20财长和央行行长会议。会议主要就全球宏观经济形势和金融稳 定、国际金融架构以及促进非洲增长和发展等议题进行了讨论。财政部部长蓝佛安出席会议并发言，副部长廖岷陪同参会。 来源 | 财政部、中国人民银行 编辑丨丁开艳 责编丨兰银帆 往期回顾 Review of Past Articles - 蓝佛安表示，当前世界经济增长动能不足，关税战、贸易战进一步影响经济金融稳定。中方坚定维护以世界贸易组织为核心的多边贸易体制，主张通过平 等对话协商解决贸易和关税争议，也将坚定维护自身正当权益。各方应通过加强多边合作进一步完善国际经济金融体系，积极推动多边开发银行改革，有 效推进国际复兴开发银行股权审议，务实完善《缓债倡议后续债务处理共同框架》 ...

► 文 观察者网 齐倩 近期，国际经贸风云变幻，美国总统特朗普挑起的关税战冲击全球产业链。但在如此关税风暴下，来自日本、德国、美国等国家的汽车、 医药、化学等多行业企业纷纷宣布新的在华投资，其中包括丰田、日产、西门子、巴斯夫等行业巨头。 据各地政府网站和媒体消息，4月以来，多家行业巨头与中方达成新的合作协议。 4月22日，上海市人民政府与丰田汽车公司在沪签署战略合作协议，双方将在新能源汽车等领域加强合作，共同助力中国社会绿色低碳发 展。据介绍，此次丰田项目总投资146亿元，接下来将加速整个项目的审批进度。根据规划，预计今年6月份实现项目正式开工，2027年第 一台车正式下线。 《南华早报》称，这是特朗普发动关税战以来，外企宣布的最大一笔在华投资之一。 一周前（15日），这家日本汽车巨头还与四川蜀道投资集团及蜀道装备科技签署了一项价值2.36亿元人民币的协议，成立一家氢燃料电池 合资企业。 4月23日，另一家日本知名汽车制造商日产携其全新电驱化车型亮相2025上海国际车展，同时启动了新的全球战略，制定全球各区域市场 策略、根据市场需求打造产品组合，加强与本土伙伴合作。 日产携其全新电驱化车型亮相2025上海国际 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry, but gives individual ratings for each black commodity: steel - narrow - range adjustment; iron ore - repeated oscillations; coking coal - consolidation; coke - consolidation; manganese silicon - oscillation; ferrosilicon - oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on April 25, 2025, including price changes, supply - demand situations, and future trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures fell slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 3106 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. This week, rebar production decreased slightly, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped significantly. Considering short - term tariff war relief and domestic policy expectations, as well as raw material and finished - product support, it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2509 dropped 0.96% to 720.5 yuan/ton. Port spot prices also fell. Supply showed a slight increase in global shipments, while demand saw an increase in molten iron production and a rise in port inventory. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected to oscillate repeatedly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures dropped 0.68% to 956 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is mainly for on - demand procurement. With policy support expectations, it is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures dropped 0.28% to 1590.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports declined. Supply production is stable, and demand is supported by high - level blast furnace operation. It is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices declined, and market sentiment needs to be boosted. With a decrease in supply in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5658 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. Spot prices in some areas decreased, and market sentiment is weak. With continued production cuts in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, as well as profit, spread data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, etc [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][29][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][43] - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant professional qualifications [52][53]

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何解读近期人民币汇率走势 ？ A： 4月份以来，人民币汇率呈现出对美元汇率稳定，对主要非美货币贬值的特征。 截止4月23日， 今年以来在岸人民币兑美元持平，但根据Wind以即期汇率估算的CFETS人民币汇率指数，今年以来 人民币对一篮子货币贬值幅度5.2%，今年以来最大贬值幅度已达5.7%。 人民币兑美元维持稳定，兑其他一篮子货币被动贬值是主动的政策选择的结果。 我们注意到，今年1 月末至3月中旬期间，央行始终将美元中间价设定在7.17附近。自3月开始中间价开始缓慢上移（趋向 于贬值），特别是在4月3日关税战升级后，央行进一步主动引导中间价上移，扩大人民币汇率弹性。 这样的结果是，在美元对其他主要货币快速贬值期间，人民币对美元汇率基本稳定，但是对欧元、日 元等主要货币贬值幅度超过10%。在我们看来，央行意在通过人民币对一篮子货币的贬值释放国内出 口压力。特别是在中美双边贸易接近冻结的情况下，人民币对欧元和日元贬值有助于增强中国出口竞 争力，起到汇率自动稳定器的作用。类似的情况也出现在首轮中美贸易战期间，2018年6-10月人民币 对一篮子货币最大贬值幅度6.2%，2019年5-10月人 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Wanwei High-tech (皖维高新) Company Overview - Wanwei High-tech primarily operates in the chemical and new materials sectors, with significant contributions from PVA products and a focus on automotive applications and optical materials [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Industry and Product Performance - PVA products account for a substantial portion of revenue, approximately 20 billion CNY, making up a significant share of overall income [4]. - The chemical segment contributes 50-60% of profits, while the new materials segment accounts for about 20% [4]. - The company expects to produce 280,000 tons in 2025, maintaining a high operating rate despite recent price declines in CAP products due to tariffs [2][7]. New Product Developments - A new production line for high-end automotive-grade PVB film is in trial stages, aiming for production in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The company is also developing a 300,000 sets per year automotive safety glass project in Chaohu, Anhui, with completion expected by the end of 2025 [12]. Market Dynamics - Recent price drops in CAP products were limited, with average prices decreasing from 12,400 CNY to 12,000 CNY, primarily due to tariff impacts [6]. - The company remains confident in market sales and has seen strong performance in exports, particularly in non-U.S. markets [20][19]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a strong performance with a net profit of 117 million CNY, driven by increased sales and prices of main products [3]. - The optical materials segment has seen profitability in fiber waveguides, while polarizers are still operating at a loss [15]. Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - The company has secured orders from major automotive manufacturers such as SAIC General and BYD, indicating strong market integration [11]. - Wanwei is actively competing with international chemical giants, leveraging improved product quality and capacity to gain market share [21]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates stable market conditions in Q2 2025, with expectations for improved sales performance [18]. - Plans for new product lines and expansions are set to enhance overall production capabilities and market presence [16][17]. Additional Insights - The company is focused on expanding its presence in international markets and adapting to changing trade environments [19]. - There is an emphasis on investor engagement, inviting potential investors to visit and observe the company's operations [23]. Conclusion Wanwei High-tech is positioned for growth with a strong focus on automotive and optical materials, backed by solid financial performance and strategic market initiatives. The company is navigating challenges in the global market while maintaining confidence in its operational capabilities and future prospects.

2025 年 4 月 25 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 尿素： | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 11 | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 13 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 15 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 ...

美 东时间4月24日盘后，谷歌母公司Alphabet发布了2025年一季度财报。作为关税影响宏观经济后最直面冲击的行业，谷歌这个广告龙头的表现，会比平时获得更 多的市场聚焦。 实际来看，谷歌Q1业绩强劲，明显优于近期进一步下调后的预期 （BBG一致预期并未完全体现预期的调整）。 但相比于一季度表现，二季度之后的展望才更加关 键。 不过谷歌一般不提供业绩指引，这次电话会估计逃不掉分析师的追问，建议关注一下。 海豚君则倾向于除了"不确定"，管理层给不出更清晰的描述，无非是强调自己的广告ROI优势和历史应对经验。 当下的广告前景如何一切取决于关税谈判进展，在 没有实质性的利好落地之前，商家投放预算会更偏向谨慎。而后续谈判若真的有好消息，那么商家态度变化，至少也要等到三季度才会有所体现。因此，二季度 是不确定中的确定——确定的是业绩差，不确定的差到什么程度。因此本篇点评除了梳理业绩表现外，也会结合谷歌当下的境遇，聊一聊安全区间。 具体来看核心信息： 1. 略解心忧的Q1业绩： 一季度表现比谨慎的预期要明显强劲， 尤其体现在盈利能力上。 Q1经营利润率环比继续提升至34%，暂时没有体现出因支出增长而承压 的情况。 其中 ...

2025.04. 24 本文字数：1579，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 在浙江舟山的波音飞机完工与交付中心，原本有三架737MAX客机即将交付中国的航空公司，但最 近的一周内，三架客机陆续从舟山飞回美国。 多家航司管理层告诉记者，公司目前不仅暂停接收波音飞机，而且也暂缓购买进口自美国的相关航材 零部件。而一家飞机租赁公司的高层也对记者透露，按照合同，从租赁公司引进的波音飞机，缴纳的 租金也要增加相应的关税，目前对于存量租赁订单，有航司提前支付了几个月的租金或提前付税，而 增量的租赁订单也选择暂不接收。 "加征125%的税率对于航空公司引进美国的飞机来说将带来巨额的成本增加，国内的航空公司可通过 寻找替代来源，或者延迟运力的引进等方式来应对。"民航业内人士林智杰对记者分析，目前国内航 空市场的运力还是相对过剩的状态，暂缓增加一些飞机运力，不会对具体运营产生重大影响。 而上述"替代来源"，主要是指引进美国以外的飞机。目前，国内航司最需要的窄体客机主要来自美国 的波音公司和欧洲的空客公司，去年三大航都接收了国产C919飞机，在窄体机市场也有了国产飞机 的新选择。 对于波音来说，中国是其单一最大海 ...

Group 1 - Herbert Hoover, a successful businessman before entering politics, became the U.S. President and significantly raised tariffs on foreign goods, leading to economic turmoil and recession in the U.S. [1] - Hoover's early life was marked by the loss of his parents, which redirected his path from a potential agricultural life to one that included education and global experiences [2][3] - His connection with former President Benjamin Harrison during his time at Stanford University influenced his views on protectionist policies, which he later implemented as President [4][10] Group 2 - As Secretary of Commerce, Hoover promoted housing and automotive industries, earning a reputation as one of the best Commerce Secretaries in U.S. history, which became a political asset for his presidential campaign [12] - Hoover's presidency began with optimism but quickly turned into crisis with the stock market crash of October 1929, marking the start of the Great Depression [14][15] - In response to the economic downturn, Hoover implemented various measures, including urging companies not to cut wages or lay off workers, which ultimately led to business failures [16] Group 3 - Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930, raising tariffs on over 20,000 goods to an average rate of 53%, which prompted retaliatory measures from other countries and worsened international trade [18] - The tariff led to a significant decline in global trade from 1929 to 1933, exacerbating the financial crisis and contributing to the collapse of the U.S. banking system [19][20] - Despite Hoover's efforts to stabilize the economy, including delaying debt repayments, the unemployment rate continued to rise, leading to his eventual defeat in the 1932 election [21]

关税战打了两周，虽有反复，但对抗的基调没有改变，所谓进口关税豁免，和关税暂缓实施，并不是缓和信号，懂王一天一个样，根本看不到关税战马上 会结束的样子。中国反制进口美国商品的关税能执行，肯定不是乱来的，也至少要做好维持一段时间的准备。 毕竟国际对抗不是过家家，在美国进口关税执行还不太顺利之际，这边中国的进口关税执行已经落地。 除了已经在国产替代风口上几年的芯片股，有更多的产业受此轮进口关税影响。农业这次受的影响也颇大，美国出口中国最多的是农产品。巨额关税后， 这一部分的进口量完全消失，成本上升在所难免，因此，国内作物将有一定量价齐升的机会，同时，大豆这类基础作物的价格上涨，将全面向下游包括 油、养殖行业蔓延。 因此，在关税过后的两周内，内需方向的股票都迎来一定炒作，农林牧渔行业罕见地实现了超额收益。 农林牧渔行业，不景气已有很长时间，股价低迷，行业也远没有到景气过热的阶段，进口关税带动的预期也是偏乐观的，大涨的背后，也不失为合理的回 归，那么，这个行业是否就此开启了新的向上周期呢？ 一、关税的影响路径 这次加全面关税，大家都很突然，短短时间内就从54%加到124%，虽说，农产品这种美国的优势产品，本身就已经有一 ...