1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term "oscillating and slightly bullish" rating for rapeseed meal futures [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. With low oil - mill operation and low inventory, and short - term peak demand, the market is in short - term range oscillation. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact. In the short term, rapeseed meal may rise and then fall due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff, and return to range oscillation driven by soybean meal [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Rapeseed meal is expected to be influenced by low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, rising and then falling, and returning to range oscillation due to soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed improves the supply - tight expectation. The demand side has good expectations. Canadian rapeseed annual output decreases slightly, and China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, along with ongoing anti - dumping investigations on Canadian rapeseed imports, have uncertain future results. Global rapeseed output decreases slightly due to EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and geopolitical conflicts support commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and seasonal low demand for rapeseed meal [12]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed arrival**: The arrival of imported rapeseed in July is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [20]. - **Oil - mill crushing and inventory**: Oil - mill rapeseed inventory drops slightly, rapeseed meal inventory remains low, and the rapeseed crushing volume fluctuates slightly [22][24]. - **Rapeseed meal transaction**: Rapeseed meal rebounds from the bottom, and the spot price fluctuates slightly following the futures, with a high - level spot discount [34]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [32]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in peak season, and the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, but short - term inventory pressure is low. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is - 113, indicating a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a 58.18% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.1 tons and an 84.67% year - on - year decrease from last year's 3 tons [8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward [8]. - **Main positions**: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out [8]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal may rise and then fall in the short term due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff, and return to range oscillation driven by soybean meal [8]. - **Trading strategies**: - **Futures**: Short - term oscillation is slightly bullish. RM2509 oscillates above 2500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting is recommended [13]. - **Options**: Wait and see [14]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal rebounds and returns to range oscillation in the short and medium term, influenced by the listing of domestic rapeseed and good demand. Future Sino - Canadian trade relations and the follow - up impact of the Sino - US tariff war will affect the market. The KDJ indicator oscillates at a high level, and the short - term market is slightly bullish, but the upward space may be limited. The MACD rebounds, and the short - term market is slightly bullish, but the red energy is insufficient. The future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal [43]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - **Most important**: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [46]. - **Second - most important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory, and downstream procurement [47]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Palestine - Israel conflict.

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is showing a predominantly positive trend, with rapeseed meal futures experiencing a price increase of 1.46% [1][2] - The main rapeseed meal futures contract opened at 2610.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 2646.00 CNY and a low of 2610.00 CNY during the trading session [1] - The market is currently in a seasonal peak for aquaculture feed consumption, but the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is considered poor compared to alternatives [2] Group 2 - Analysts from various institutions have differing views on the future of rapeseed meal prices, with some expecting price pressure due to the influx of Brazilian soybeans and tight supply of old-season rapeseed [2] - The low inventory of imported rapeseed and the impact of tariffs on Canadian oilseed meal are contributing to short-term price fluctuations [2] - The market is currently observing a wait-and-see approach regarding the outcomes of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, leading to a cautious trading atmosphere [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **For Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and its growth is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The domestic rapeseed meal market is affected by multiple factors. The arrival of the aquaculture peak season increases the demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation, and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds to the supply increment. The market price is under pressure, and the futures price shows a weak performance [2]. - **For Rapeseed Oil**: The cost of Canadian rapeseed provides support for the domestic rapeseed oil market, but the high inventory pressure of domestic oil mills and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations add supply pressure. The price is affected by factors such as international oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9482 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2550 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 711.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 5.5 Canadian dollars), and that of the active contract of rapeseed is 4947 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 78 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 245 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan) [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 328,197 lots (down 17,063 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 600,032 lots (up 49,071 lots). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 23,914 lots (down 1,157 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 19,928 lots (down 6,809 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil is 100 (unchanged), and that for rapeseed meal is 22,685 (down 1,329) [2]. 现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9680 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 5133.35 yuan/ton (up 31.96 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 204 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is - 120 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan). The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1470 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1190 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan). The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.56 million tons (up 4.32 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons), the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 14.26% (down 4.83 percentage points) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12.2 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.01 million tons (down 0.54 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 63.05 million tons (up 2.05 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 36.83 million tons (down 0.41 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 7.2 million tons (down 0.1 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 30.8 million tons (down 0.7 million tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 2.81 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.87 million tons (down 0.56 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 26.64 million tons (down 1.132 million tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons (down 0.87 million tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 416.7 billion yuan (down 6.8 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.78% (down 0.15 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 20.77% (down 0.16 percentage points). The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.11% (down 0.23 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 15.1% (down 0.24 percentage points) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.12% (up 0.69 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.61% (up 0.04 percentage points). The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.37% (down 0.09 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 15.1% (down 0.01 percentage points) [2]. Industry News - On June 25, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher due to tight old - crop supply and bullish technical signals. The July contract rose 4.40 Canadian dollars to 697.80 Canadian dollars/ton, and the November contract rose 8.40 Canadian dollars to 714.60 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].

Group 1 - The main contract of rapeseed meal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 2581.00 yuan, with a drop of 2.71% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future market trends of rapeseed meal, with 中辉期货 suggesting cautious short selling, 瑞达期货 indicating a general maintenance of fluctuations, and 方正中期期货 predicting short-term price oscillations [2][3][4] Group 2 - 中辉期货 notes that the rapeseed meal market is currently stable, with a basis quote in the range of 120-130 yuan/ton, and emphasizes the importance of managing positions and targets due to limited new supply [2] - 瑞达期货 highlights that the increase in oil factory operating rates due to the arrival of imported soybeans is putting pressure on the rapeseed meal market, while the demand for rapeseed meal is supported by the peak season for aquaculture [3] - 方正中期期货 points out that the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is decreasing, and there is an expectation of increased production for the new season, while also noting the pressure from soybean meal prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) declined on June 23 due to rainfall in western Canada and the weakening of US soybeans, which alleviated concerns about crop shortages. The 11 - month rapeseed contract closed 17.70 Canadian dollars lower at 725 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The good condition of US soybeans and favorable weather forecasts for the Midwest continue to constrain the US soybean market. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate has increased significantly, leading to a more relaxed supply and putting pressure on the meal market prices [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the peak season of aquaculture has arrived, increasing the feed demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal is good, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations adds to the potential increase in supply, dragging down the market price of rapeseed meal. The short - term market focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, and the growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage [2]. - For rapeseed oil, palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing season, which restricts its market price. However, increased exports boost the palm oil market. The US Environmental Protection Agency's suggestion to increase the blending requirements for biofuels in 2026 and 2027 has greatly increased the demand expectation for US soybean oil, driving up the soybean oil market price. The Middle - East situation has a significant impact on international oil prices, increasing the volatility of the oil market. Domestically, the high inventory pressure of oil mills continues to restrict the market price. Although the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations adds supply pressure, the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides support for the domestic rapeseed oil market price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil futures contract was 9572 yuan/ton, down 149 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal futures contract was 2662 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 94 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 288 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - The position of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased by 21,225 hands to 372,654 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 1429 hands to 35,129 hands. The position of the main rapeseed meal contract decreased by 2498 hands to 516,622 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 6616 hands to 20,885 hands [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 100, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased by 963 to 24,711. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures contract was 724.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 17.1 Canadian dollars [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9920 yuan/ton, and the average price was 9936.25 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2550 yuan/ton, and the oil - meal ratio was 3.78, up 0.05 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 199 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was - 112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1540 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed was 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons, and the annual predicted production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 5280.97 yuan/ton, down 136.56 yuan/ton, and the import rapeseed crushing profit was 125 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, down 5 million tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 14.26%, down 4.83 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 12.2 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.01 million tons, down 0.54 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 63.05 million tons, up 2.05 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 36.83 million tons, down 0.41 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 7.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 30.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 2.81 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 2.87 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.37%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.37%, up 0.42 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 15.87%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.4%, unchanged [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.77%, up 0.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.77%, up 0.51 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 14%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.63%, up 0.18 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend, influenced by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed, the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the trend of soybean meal. The future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [8][42][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. The annual rapeseed production in Canada has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased due to lower output in the EU and Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. Bearish factors: The upcoming listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed Arrival**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost was in a slightly bullish and volatile trend [18]. - **Oil Mill Operation and Inventory**: The rapeseed inventory at oil mills continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory slightly decreased to a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume at oil mills slightly decreased [21][23]. - **Rapeseed Meal Transaction**: Not provided in the given content - **Aquaculture**: The prices of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimps and shellfish remained stable. China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports are presented, but no specific analysis is given [25][27][29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [15][17]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal decreased, but capital inflows were observed [8]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is in a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend. The low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes support the price, but the absence of additional tariffs on rapeseed imports limits the upside potential [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.55 tons, a 18.42% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.9 tons and a 40.38% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.6 tons, which is bullish [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The KDJ indicator is oscillating and falling from a high level, and the MACD is oscillating upward with a narrowing red energy bar. In general, the short - term trend is slightly bullish, but the future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [42]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, the futures are expected to be slightly bullish. For the RM2509 contract, it is recommended to trade within the range above 2600 or wait and see. For options, sell slightly out - of - the - money put options on the 09 contract [12]. 7. Next Week's Focus Points - The most important factors are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. Secondary factors include domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the inventory of rapeseed meal at domestic oil mills and downstream procurement. Other factors include macro - economy and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil production is expected to increase month - on - month, with seasonal production growth approaching, increasing supply expectations. Although domestic port inventories are currently low, as origin quotes weaken, future purchases are emerging. With the current inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and inventory is expected to grow, requiring a further narrowing of the spread to stimulate consumption [3]. - For soybean oil, as purchased ships arrive at ports, supply pressure is increasing, and oil mill压榨 is expected to rise. With no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, inventory is expected to enter a build - up cycle. Given the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may repair in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the expected improvement in China - Canada relations has reduced the premium in the market's policy - related trading. The current supply is at a peak, but new supply will be limited, and the marginal inventory reduction is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. High inventory is suppressing prices, but policy uncertainty provides support for far - month prices [3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened with the international market. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is abundant, and the fourth - quarter supply depends on China - US negotiations [15]. - In the domestic soybean meal market, prices have strengthened with the international market due to China - US negotiation expectations. However, the concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will put pressure on prices. Downstream demand is weak, and the basis remains weak [15]. - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is below expectations. The inventory reduction is difficult. The far - month supply has some gaps, but demand is limited. The market is weak, and future trends depend on China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price Spreads - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 4 yuan/ton; P 5 - 9 is - 152 yuan/ton with a daily change of 16 yuan/ton; P 9 - 1 is 30 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 12 yuan/ton [4]. - Soybean - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 432 yuan/ton with a daily change of 30 yuan/ton; Y - P 05 is - 650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 20 yuan/ton; Y - P 09 is - 386 yuan/ton with a daily change of 48 yuan/ton [4]. - Other spreads: Y/M and OI/RM also have corresponding price and change data [4]. 3.2. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm oil futures prices: Palm oil 01 is 8504 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 05 is 8382 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 09 is 8536 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.02% [6]. - Spot and related prices: BMD palm oil主力 is 4143 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.95%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8730 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton; the basis is 222 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean oil futures prices: Soybean oil 01 is 8082 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.23%; Soybean oil 05 is 7736 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.04%; Soybean oil 09 is 8156 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.32% [12]. - Spot and related prices: CBOT soybean oil主力 is 54.62 cents/pound with a decline of 0.13%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8300 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the basis is 98 yuan/ton with a decline of 18 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4. Oilseed Futures Prices - Soybean meal futures prices: Soybean meal 01 is 3097 with a decline of 7 and a decline rate of 0.23%; Soybean meal 05 is 2768 with a decline of 1 and a decline rate of 0.04%; Soybean meal 09 is 3067 with a decline of 10 and a decline rate of 0.32% [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures prices: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2395 with a decline of 33 and a decline rate of 1.36%; Rapeseed meal 05 is 2389 with a decline of 21 and a decline rate of 0.87%; Rapeseed meal 09 is 2679 with a decline of 15 and a decline rate of 0.56% [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the influence of US biodiesel news, soybean oil and palm oil are considered bullish in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is to be put under temporary observation due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price Data - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8870, 8820, and 8800 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 80, and 0 compared to June 18 [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8400, and 8360 respectively, with price changes of 70, 50, and 70 compared to June 18 [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9900, 9920, and 10100 respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, and 20 compared to June 18 [1] 2. Futures Data - **Spread between Main Contracts**: On June 19, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 386, up 48 from June 18; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1539, down 80 from June 18 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, 2025, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 540, 17552, and 100 respectively, with no change compared to June 18 [1] 3. Policy and Trade Data - **US Biodiesel Policy**: EPA's expected biomass diesel BBD blending obligations for 2026 - 2027 are 56.1 and 58.6 billion gallons respectively, exceeding the previous market expectation of 46.5 - 52.5 billion gallons [1] - **Indian Imports**: In May, India's sunflower oil, soybean oil, and palm oil imports were 183555 tons, 398585 tons, and 592888 tons respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.9%, 10.42%, and 84.44%; the total vegetable oil imports were 1187068 tons, a 33.15% month - on - month increase [1] 4. Production and Inventory Data - **MPOB May Data**: Palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 67900 tons, an 18.32% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; consumption was 327600 tons, a 3.36% month - on - month decrease; and the ending inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase [1] - **June High - frequency Data**: From June 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 26.3% (ITS data) or 17.77% (Amspec data) compared to the same period last month [1] - **Argentine Soybean Production**: As of June 11, the 24/25 soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, 2.8 percentage points behind the same period last year [2] - **US Soybean Production**: As of June 8, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [2] 5. Other Factors - **Weather**: Future two - week precipitation for US soybeans is moderately high, and Malaysia's precipitation is expected to be neutral [1][2] - **Trade Relations**: There is an expectation of easing China - Canada trade relations [2] - **Domestic Supply**: In the short - term, the low rapeseed inventory makes the supply of rapeseed oil tight, but the supply may be supplemented in the far - month due to the expected easing of trade relations [2]

Group 1: Cotton Market - Cotton futures prices are experiencing fluctuations as temperatures in Xinjiang rise, with most cotton fields entering the flowering stage, indicating good growth conditions [1] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding US-China tariff policies is causing market volatility, while the downstream textile industry is in a traditional consumption lull, leading to reduced orders and slight inventory accumulation [1] - Cotton prices may face downward pressure in the short term due to demand seasonality, with a support level to watch around 13,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal and Oil Market - Soybean meal prices are rising, but there are still supply pressures, and inventory depletion may be challenging due to a lack of significant increases in aquaculture production [1] - Soybean oil prices are also increasing, supported by strong bottom levels despite a persistent oversupply situation, influenced by international relations and overall oil market trends [1] Group 3: Sugar Market - Sugar futures prices are declining, with Brazil's exports showing a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and India's projected sugar production for the 2025/2026 season estimated at 35 million tons [2] - In Guangxi, sugar sales have increased by 537,100 tons year-on-year, with a sales rate of 71.85%, indicating a positive trend in local sugar consumption [2] - Short-term sugar prices in Zhengzhou are expected to follow external market fluctuations, with a key support level at 5,600 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Peanut Market - Peanut prices are declining due to weak spot market transactions, with new season prices stabilizing around 4.7 yuan per jin [2] - A significant reduction in import volumes is pushing up imported peanut prices, while peanut oil prices remain stable, indicating a mixed market response [2] Group 5: Overall Market Trends - The Yisheng Agricultural Futures Index showed a rebound last week, closing at 1,155.54 points, ending the previous week's downward trend [3] - The market is expected to continue experiencing wide fluctuations, with the index likely to maintain a volatile operating pattern in the near future [4]