甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/1 5 801 2247 2243 2345 - 2315 2435 - 322 - -25 - 2026/01/1 6 801 2230 2231 2345 - 2315 2435 264 322 -16 -25 - 2026/01/1 9 801 2217 2203 2355 - 2315 2410 264 322 -40 -25 - 2026/01/2 0 801 2208 2178 2355 - 2285 2388 262 322 -29 0 - 2026/01/2 1 801 2213 2200 2355 - 2285 2385 - - - 0 - 日度变化 0 5 22 0 - 0 -3 - - - 0 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry News - BHP Billiton reported record-high iron ore production in the first half of the year and accepted a partial price cut in annual contract negotiations with China [1] - On January 19, an explosion occurred at a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steelmaking department of Baotou Steel Plate Factory, affecting the production of the plate mill and surrounding production lines [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] 2. Futures Market Data 2.1 Price and Trading Volume - RB2605 closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.35%), with a trading volume of 633,661 lots and an open interest of 1,742,258 lots, an increase of 1,023 lots [2] - HC2605 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.06%), with a trading volume of 335,123 lots and an open interest of 1,449,160 lots, a decrease of 36,985 lots [2] 2.2 Spot Price - The spot price of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged [2] - The spot price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou remained unchanged, while the price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Tangshan steel billets remained unchanged at 2,930 yuan/ton [2] 2.3 Basis and Spread - The basis of RB2605 decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -16 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between RB2605 and RB2610 increased by 3 yuan/ton to -45 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2605 and HC2610 remained unchanged at -19 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between HC2605 and RB2605 increased by 4 yuan/ton to 169 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2610 and RB2610 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 143 yuan/ton [2] 3. Weekly Data 3.1 Production - On January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 2.85 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 0.62 tons [4] 3.2 Inventory - Rebar inventory decreased by 0.04 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.8 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.91 tons [4] 3.3 Apparent Demand - Rebar apparent demand increased by 14.44 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 5.55 tons, and the total apparent demand increased by 27.5 tons [4] 4. Import and Export Data 4.1 December 2025 - China imported 51.7 million tons of steel in December 2025, a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons (4.2%), with an average price of 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton (11.0%) [4] - From January to December, China imported 605.9 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 75.6 million tons (11.1%) [4] 4.2 October 2025 - China imported 50.3 million tons of steel in October 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%), with an average price of 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 31.1 US dollars/ton (1.9%) [4] - From January to October, China imported 504.1 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 68.0 million tons (11.9%) [4] 5. Production and Inventory of Key Steel Enterprises 5.1 December 2025 - In late December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1,807 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.643 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.0% [4] - They produced 1,837 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.670 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [4] - They produced 2,081 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.892 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.9% [4] 5.2 Social Inventory - In late December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 27 million tons (3.6%), a decrease of 112 million tons (13.4%) compared with late November, and an increase of 62 million tons (9.4%) compared with the same period last year [4] 5.3 Enterprise Inventory - In late December, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1,414 million tons, a decrease of 187 million tons (11.7%) compared with the previous ten days, an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the beginning of the year, a decrease of 14 million tons (1.0%) compared with the same period last month, an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 178 million tons (14.4%) compared with the same period the year before last [4] 6. Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar is 0, and the trend strength of hot-rolled coil is 0 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 strengthened, the monthly spread rebounded significantly, the high - sulfur cracking in Europe rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded significantly, and the high - sulfur EW oscillated at a high level. The cracking of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounded month - on - month, the inter - month spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil slightly increased in stock, which was at a historical high year - on - year, ARA residue oil slightly decreased in stock, and Fujairah residue oil increased in stock. [3][4] - This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high - sulfur was stronger than that of low - sulfur. The high - sulfur spot tightened, the cracking rebounded, and the short - term downside space was limited, while the low - sulfur external market remained weak. [4] 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 333.76 | 341.06 | 336.61 | 344.17 | 347.28 | 3.11 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 384.56 | 389.58 | 385.89 | 387.29 | 392.05 | 4.76 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 10.45 | - 10.09 | - 10.43 | - 9.82 | - 9.95 | - 0.13 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 621.40 | 634.20 | 630.80 | 645.50 | 660.65 | 15.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | - 236.84 | - 244.62 | - 244.91 | - 258.21 | - 268.60 | - 10.39 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 21.81 | 23.19 | 22.94 | 23.87 | 23.87 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 50.80 | 48.52 | 49.28 | 43.12 | 44.77 | 1.65 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 359.16 | 356.84 | 359.12 | 355.91 | 372.09 | [1] | Singapore 180cst M1 | 363.46 | 363.27 | 364.49 | 364.98 | 374.36 | [1] | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 426.98 | 426.45 | 427.95 | 423.67 | 436.23 | [1] | Singapore GO M1 | 81.65 | 81.51 | 82.07 | 82.46 | 85.51 | [1] | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.10 | - 6.79 | - 6.30 | - 6.65 | - 5.97 | [1] | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | - 177.23 | - 176.72 | - 179.37 | - 186.53 | - 196.54 | [1] | Singapore FOB 380cst | 358.88 | 358.34 | 359.26 | 355.87 | 362.64 | 6.77 | [2] | Singapore FOB VLSFO | 429.02 | 429.37 | 431.00 | 425.98 | 428.48 | 2.50 | [2] | Singapore 380cst Basis | - 1.45 | - 1.65 | - 1.45 | - 0.80 | 0.25 | 1.05 | [2] | Singapore High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 13.9 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 1.3 | [2] | Singapore Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 14.9 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 16.9 | 16.3 | - 0.6 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2510 | 2485 | 2478 | 2467 | 2482 | 15 | [2] | FU 05 | 2566 | 2520 | 2526 | 2507 | 2539 | 32 | [2] | FU 09 | 2533 | 2498 | 2500 | 2487 | 2510 | 23 | [2] | FU 01 - 05 | - 56 | - 35 | - 48 | - 40 | - 57 | - 17 | [2] | FU 05 - 09 | 33 | 22 | 26 | 20 | 29 | 9 | [2] | FU 09 - 01 | 23 | 13 | 22 | 20 | 28 | 8 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3166 | 3088 | 3136 | 3120 | 3135 | 15 | [3] | LU 05 | 3074 | 3041 | 3052 | 3066 | 3071 | 5 | [3] | LU 09 | 3090 | 3056 | 3073 | 3085 | 3090 | 5 | [3] | LU 01 - 05 | 92 | 47 | 84 | 54 | 64 | 10 | [3] | LU 05 - 09 | - 16 | - 15 | - 21 | - 19 | - 19 | 0 | [3] | LU 09 - 01 | - 76 | - 32 | - 63 | - 35 | - 45 | - 10 | [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From January 15 to January 21, 2026, the base price of thermal coal showed a continuous decline, starting from -100.40 yuan/ton on January 15 and dropping to -115.40 yuan/ton on January 21 [2]. II. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Energy Commodities**: - **Base Price**: For fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, the base prices on January 21 were 62.33, -0.58, and 64.30 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1395 on January 21 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber was - 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, LLDPE - PVC was 1896 yuan/ton [9]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rubber on January 21 was - 345 yuan/ton [10]. III. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 5 - month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar was - 780.30 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, rebar/iron ore was 3.96 [19]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rebar on January 21 was 143.0 yuan/ton [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic base prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of copper on January 21 was - 1270 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 21 were given. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (29.11), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.83 [31]. V. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: The base prices of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of soybeans No.1 on January 21 was - 152 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No.1 was - 41 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, soybeans No.1/corn was 1.89 [37]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: The base prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on January 21 was 0.27 [49]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were given. For example, for CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 57.4 [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals and Minerals - Copper (CU) has a 0.29% 主力基差率, up 0.30% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 330, 次月基差 of 290, and 再次月基差 of 70 [3] - Aluminum (AL) has a -0.42% 主力基差率, up 0.22% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -45, 次月基差 of -100, and 再次月基差 of -160 [3] - Zinc (ZN) has a -0.12% 主力基差率, up 0.38% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 30, 次月基差 of -30, and 再次月基差 of -65 [3] - Lead (PB) has a -1.35% 主力基差率, up 0.32% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -170, 次月基差 of -235, and 再次月基差 of -275 [3] - Tin (SN) has a 0.71% 主力基差率, up 0.76% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 2730, 次月基差 of 2730, and 再次月基差 of 2670 [3] - Industrial Silicon (NI) has a 3.59% 主力基差率, up 0.14% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 2020, 次月基差 of 4860, and 再次月基差 of 4650 [3] - Lithium Carbonate (LC) has a -1.35% 主力基差率, up 0.93% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -590, 次月基差 of -1470, and 再次月基差 of -1570 [3] - Gold (AU) has a -0.34% 主力基差率, down -0.2B% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -3.61, 次月基差 of -6.53, and 再次月基差 of -8.73 [3] - Silver (AG) has a -0.23% 主力基差率, down -0.93% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -104, 次月基差 of -53, and 再次月基差 of -25 [3] Black Industry - Rebar (RB) has a 4.46% 主力基差率, down -0.51% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 140, 次月基差 of 92 [3] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC) has a -1.18% 主力基差率, down -1.63% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -39, 次月基差 of -59, and 再次月基差 of -84 [3] - Iron Ore has an 8.14% 主力基差率, up 1.32% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 64.6, 次月基差 of 82.1, and 再次月基差 of 96.1 [3] - Coke has a -6.4% 主力基差率, down -0.22% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -116.0, 次月基差 of -193.5, and 再次月基差 of -276.5 [3] - Coking Coal (JIM) has a 1.11% 主力基差率, up 6.96% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 13.0, 次月基差 of -66.5, and 再次月基差 of -227.0 [3] - Thermal Coal (ZC) has a 12.55% 主力基差率, down -0.50% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -101.4, 次月基差 of -101.4, and 再次月基差 of -101.4 [3] - Ferrosilicon (SF) has a -4.7% 主力基差率, up 0.20% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -236, 次月基差 of -328, and 再次月基差 of -426 [3] - Manganese Silicon (SM) has a 1.93% 主力基差率, up 2.92% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 72, 次月基差 of 30, and 再次月基差 of -40 [3] - Stainless Steel has a -0.03% 主力基差率, down -0.91% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -20, 次月基差 of -125, and 再次月基差 of -310 [3] Agricultural and Sideline Products - Glass (FG) has a -4.67% 主力基差率, up 2.85% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -50, 次月基差 of -160, and 再次月基差 of -214 [3] - Soybean (A) has a -5.1% 主力基差率, up 0.07% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -221, 次月基差 of -252, and 再次月基差 of -280 [3] - Soybean Meal (M) has a 12.94% 主力基差率, unchanged from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 353, 次月基差 of 232, and 再次月基差 of 183 [3] - Rapeseed Meal (RM) has an 8.06% 主力基差率, down -1.47% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 179, 次月基差 of 113, and 再次月基差 of 183 [3] - Soybean Oil (V) has a 6.93% 主力基差率, up 0.27% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 554, 次月基差 of 674, and 再次月基差 of [3] - Rapeseed Oil (Ol) has a 9.53% 主力基差率, up 0.84% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 848, 次月基差 of 827, and 再次月基差 of 899 [3] - Peanut (PK) has a 16.60% 主力基差率, up 0.38% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 1358, 次月基差 of 994, and 再次月基差 of 1028 [3] - Palm Oil (P) has a 0.60% 主力基差率, up 0.30% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 55, 次月基差 of 78, and 再次月基差 of 62 [3] - Corn (C) has a 2.37% 主力基差率, unchanged from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 63, 次月基差 of 42, and 再次月基差 of 94 [3] - Corn Starch (CS) has a 0.59% 主力基差率, unchanged from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -20, 次月基差 of -50, and 再次月基差 of -3 [3] - Apple (AP) has a -8.51% 主力基差率, up 1.88% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -795, 次月基差 of 454, and 再次月基差 of 514 [3] - Egg (JD) has a 22.39% 主力基差率, up 5.21% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 184, 次月基差 of -248 [3] - Live Pig (LH) has a 14.48% 主力基差率, up 4.71% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 1455, 次月基差 of -30, and 再次月基差 of 1260 [3] Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Cotton (CF) has a 9.18% 主力基差率, down -0.01% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 1335, 次月基差 of 1170, and 再次月基差 of 740 [3] - Sugar (SR) has a 2.78% 主力基差率, up 0.27% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 146, 次月基差 of 130, and 再次月基差 of 50 [3] - Methanol (MA) has a 0.59% 主力基差率, up 0.10% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 13, 次月基差 of -11, and 再次月基差 of -58 [3] - Ethanol (EG) has a -3.20% 主力基差率, up 0.39% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -120, 次月基差 of -228, and 再次月基差 of 21 [3] - PTA (TA) has a -0.89% 主力基差率, up 0.26% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -45, 次月基差 of -3, and 再次月基差 of 21 [3] - Polypropylene (PP) has a 5.68% 主力基差率, up 0.23% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 368, 次月基差 of 335, and 再次月基差 of 354 [3] - Styrene (EB) has a 1.30% 主力基差率, down -0.26% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 212, 次月基差 of 396 [3] - Short Fiber has a 0.97% 主力基差率, down -0.2B% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -30, 次月基差 of -128 [3] - Plastic (L) has a 4.24% 主力基差率, down -1.36% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 283, 次月基差 of 259, and 再次月基差 of 230 [3] - PVC (V) has a -4.9% 主力基差率, down -0.53% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -201, 次月基差 of -316, and 再次月基差 of -411 [3] - Rubber (RU) has a -0.29% 主力基差率, up 0.57% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -45, 次月基差 of -5, and 再次月基差 of -640 [3] - 20 - Rubber (NR) has a 4.55% 主力基差率, up 0.37% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 480, 次月基差 of 375, and 再次月基差 of 215 [3] - Soda Ash (SA) has a -4.9% 主力基差率, unchanged from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -50, 次月基差 of -111, and 再次月基差 of -154 [3] - Urea (UR) has a -1.24% 主力基差率, up 0.49% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -22, 次月基差 of 4, and 再次月基差 of 1 [3] - Pulp (SP) has a 2.85% 主力基差率, down -0.70% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 153, 次月基差 of 115, and 再次月基差 of -21 [3] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC) has a -5.5% 主力基差率, down -0.23% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -28.8, 次月基差 of -33.4, and 再次月基差 of -37.6 [3] - Fuel Oil (FU) has a 5.08% 主力基差率, down -0.75% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 141, 次月基差 of 167, and 再次月基差 of 189 [3] - Asphalt (BU) has a -1.97% 主力基差率, down -0.70% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -78, 次月基差 of -59, and 再次月基差 of -12 [3] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) has a 1.15% 主力基差率, down -0.52% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 43, 次月基差 of 22, and 再次月基差 of -41 [3] - LPG (PG) has a 22.14% 主力基差率, up 0.12% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 729, 次月基差 of 1055, and 再次月基差 of 743 [3] Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF) has a 0.12% 主力基差率, down -0.05% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 1.7, 次月基差 of 5.9, and 再次月基差 of 45.7 [3] - SSE 50 (IH) has a -0.05% 主力基差率, up 0.10% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -0.5, 次月基差 of -1.7, and 再次月基差 of 2.1 [3] - CSI 500 (IC) has a 0.27% 主力基差率, down -0.01% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 6.1, 次月基差 of 21.9, and 再次月基差 of 139.9 [3]

Group 1: Market Information - Futures: CF01 closed at 15155 with a 10-point increase, CF05 at 14535 (10-point increase), CF09 at 14705 (5-point increase), CY05 at 20515 (unchanged), and CY09 at 20625 (55-point decrease). CY01 had no trading [2]. - Spot: CCIndex3128B was 15819 yuan/ton (-61), Cot A was 74.80 cents/pound, and various other spot prices were provided with their respective changes [2]. - Spreads: Cotton and棉纱跨期 spreads, as well as跨品种 and内外价差, were presented with their corresponding values and changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - On January 21, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1678 yuan/ton·km, up 0.96% from the previous day. It's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [4]. - As of January 15, 2026, Pakistan's 2025/26 new cotton market volume reached 85.1 tons, almost the same as the previous year. Textile mills purchased 75 tons (down 1%), and unsold new cotton was 7.4 tons (down 5%) [4]. - In December 2025, the export of all-cotton grey cloth was 48.85 million meters (up 9.3% year-on-year), and the export value was $45.68 million (up 5.3%). For the whole year of 2025, the cumulative export was 639 million meters (up 23.17%) and the cumulative export value was $613 million (up 9.34%) [5]. Trading Logic - Cotton sales are progressing quickly and are at a high level compared to previous years. Downstream demand for stocking is increasing, but considering the approaching Spring Festival, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading. - Options: Hold off on trading [7]. Cotton Yarn Industry - The domestic pure cotton yarn market is sluggish overall, with a differentiation between product categories. High-count combed yarns are in high demand, while low-count yarn prices are stable or decreasing, and regular yarn orders are mediocre [8]. - The all-cotton grey cloth market has continuous transactions, mainly small and scattered orders. Some areas are starting to collect payments, and factories are increasing production to fulfill orders [8]. Group 3: Options - Volatility: On January 19, 2026, the 60-day HV of cotton was 9.2812, slightly higher than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF605-C-14600, CF605-C-14200, and CF605-P-13800 were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [10]. - Strategy: Hold off on trading options [12]. Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes charts showing various cotton price spreads and basis, such as the 1% tariff on the domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1st, 5th, and 9th month basis, CY05-CF05 and CY01-CF01 spreads, and CF9-1 and CF5-9 spreads [14][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to improve, with port inventories declining from their peak in the first week and downstream提货 demand being boosted. Although the styrene startup rate remains low, the startup rates of non - styrene pure benzene downstream industries have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in downstream startup rates. Overseas, attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the expected reduction of the US tariff policy on South Korean pure benzene. The domestic pure benzene startup rate remains low. - For styrene, the port inventory is still slightly decreasing at the beginning of the week, and the port basis is slightly strengthening. The recovery rate of styrene startup is still slow, the resumption of production at Bohua is still to be determined, and Zhenhai Liande continues to be shut down. The downstream startup rate has increased, with the EPS startup rate rising above the seasonal level, the PS startup rate declining seasonally, and the ABS startup rate consolidating at a low level. Overall, the weighted downstream startup rate has increased, and the ABS inventory pressure has gradually eased [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main contract basis is - 77 yuan/ton (+105), and the spot - M2 spread is - 175 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main contract basis is 142 yuan/ton (+47 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 178 US dollars/ton (+20 US dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 180 US dollars/ton (+23 US dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 154.0 US dollars/ton (-6.0 US dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 386 yuan/ton (-78 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Startup Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 29.70 tons (-2.70 tons), and the startup rate is not mentioned in the text [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 93,500 tons (-7,100 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 58,900 tons (-1,000 tons), and the startup rate is 70.9% (-0.1%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Startup and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 78 yuan/ton (+145 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 54.05% (+7.34%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 322 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 57.40% (-1.50%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 978 yuan/ton (-55 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 69.80% (+0.00%) [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Startup and Production Profits - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 990 yuan/ton (-45), and the startup rate is 77.17% (+2.95%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 919 yuan/ton (+0), and the startup rate is 89.00% (+3.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is 1171 yuan/ton (+262), and the startup rate is 73.26% (+11.95%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 921 yuan/ton (-41), and the startup rate is 65.30% (-2.30%) [1]. 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: Consider cautiously buying on dips and hedging for EB2602 and BZ2603 [4]. - Basis and inter - period: None [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily summary of futures arbitrage data for various commodities on January 21, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from January 14 - 20, 2026, shows a change from - 100 yuan/ton to - 112 yuan/ton [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 14 - 20, 2026, with values like 0.1410, - 0.58, etc. [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis: Data for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., rubber basis changed from - 310 yuan/ton to - 320 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - period spreads: For 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month of rubber, methanol, etc. For example, rubber's 5 - month minus 1 - month is - 645 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - commodity spreads: Spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis: Data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., rebar basis on January 20 is 159.0 yuan/ton [20] - Inter - period spreads: For rebar, iron ore, etc., including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month [19] - Inter - commodity spreads: Spreads like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026 [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., copper basis on January 20 is - 740 yuan/ton [27] - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, etc., on January 20, 2026 [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis: Data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, etc., from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., soybeans No.1 basis on January 20 is - 178 yuan/ton [35] - Inter - period spreads: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc., including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month [35] - Inter - commodity spreads: Spreads like soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026 [35] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis: Data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., CSI 300 basis on January 20 is 10.28 [46] - Inter - period spreads: For CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., including next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - quarter [48]

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月21日 | 最新值 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -10.28 | -4.42 | 68.00% | 38.0096 | 4.75 | H期配分去 | 3.09 | 91.30% | 83.20% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 22.94 | 97.50% | 1.00 | 86,1096 | IM期现价差 | -25.52 | 28.00% | -61.95 | 75.00% | 次月-当月 | -2.00 | 2.20 | 89.30% | 55.60% | | | 零月-当月 | -36.60 | 44.2 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic LPG market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly center. The 02-03 and 3-4 spreads form reverse spreads, and the follow - up needs to focus on the situation of warehouse receipts. Overall, the internal and external valuations are high, the supply - demand pattern of the external market is expected to weaken, while the domestic valuation is neutral [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Daily Data - From January 14 to January 20, 2026, the prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related products such as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil, showed different degrees of changes. The daily changes on January 20 were - 60, - 50, 0, - 4, 0, - 2, 0, - 20, - 27, - 12 respectively [1]. Daily Viewpoint - On Tuesday, the futures market dropped significantly. The 02 - 03 spread was 90 (+3), the 03 - 04 spread was - 279 (-12), and the 02 - 04 spread was - 189 (-9). On Monday night at 10 o'clock, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices rose slightly to 529.45 US dollars [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly center. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 250 (-58). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4340 (-50). The warehouse receipts were 5977 lots (-241). The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared with CP and MB. The internal and external PG - FEI was 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP was 69.6 (-8). The arrival discount of propane in East China, China was 77 (-2), and the FOB discounts of propane from AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. The freight increased, with the US Gulf - Japan at 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 27 (week - on - week +12). The PDH profit was significantly repaired but still poor. The port inventory decreased by 4.9%, the arrival of ships increased by 2.7%, and the overall shipment increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and the external supply decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February, with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline [1].