Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was -20 (-334), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The external market prices tumbled. FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, with South China at 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). PDH - to - propylene profit declined. Inventory pressure was high, with short - term supply pressure large, but supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II restored, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis fell sharply to negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, civil gas showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. In East China, it was 4264 (-74), in Shandong 4200 (+110), and in South China 4420 (-30). Ether - after carbon four was 4390 (-10). The lowest deliverable area was Shandong, with a basis of 49 (+197), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 151 (+9). FEI declined and CP fluctuated, at 465 (+2) and 440 (-2) US dollars/ton respectively [1]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly because of macro and geopolitical news. The basis decreased by 334 to -20, and the 11 - 12 monthly spread increased by 59 to 137. Domestic civil gas prices dropped substantially. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas with a price reduction of 250 to 4200; East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. External market prices dropped sharply. FEI and CP monthly spreads increased by 5 US dollars, reaching -10 and -4 respectively. The internal - external price differences PG - CP, PG - FEI, and FEI - CP all increased. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased by 26 to 78. Freight rates decreased significantly. FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open. PDH - to - propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, but there was support from chemical demand and an expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate decreased by 2.12 pct to 68.76%. Although spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis dropped sharply, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel futures market showed an oscillating trend. The market is in a weak - balance state with insufficient demand in the peak season, supply - side profit constraints, and inventory reduction providing support. Short - term stainless - steel futures may continue to oscillate within a range, and policy expectations and the "Silver October" performance of the demand side will be the key variables to break the range [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel ss2512 contract oscillated. The opening price dropped to the lowest point of 12,500 and then rebounded to the highest point of 12,615. The trading volume was large at the opening and when the price reached the highest point. The position increased continuously, with a trading volume of 125,870 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 stainless - steel futures contracts showed a normal market pattern with near - term prices lower than far - term prices. Most contract prices declined slightly, with far - term contracts having a relatively larger decline. The total position of the variety was 289,810 lots, an increase of 5,297 lots from the previous trading day. The position of the active contract ss2512 increased by 7,755 lots, while that of the sub - main contract ss2511 decreased by 2,869 lots [2][4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2512 changed significantly, with a maximum of 950 yuan/ton and a minimum of 163 yuan/ton, and 423 yuan/ton on the day. Spot prices of 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate varied in different regions, such as 12,700 yuan/ton in Foshan Yongjin, 12,900 yuan/ton in Wuxi Yongjin, etc. [5]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: In the past 10 trading days, registered warehouse receipts decreased overall, from a maximum of 87,803 tons to a minimum of 83,231 tons. On the day, it was 83,231 tons, a decrease of 776 tons from the previous day [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Demand**: The demand in the downstream consumption peak season is not optimistic. The total inventory in the Wuxi and Foshan stainless - steel markets increased to 909,000 tons in October, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%, indicating that demand is lower than expected [7]. - **Supply**: Overseas goods are arriving at ports, and domestic stainless - steel production in October has increased, intensifying the cautious wait - and - see sentiment of enterprises. - **Cost**: The supply disturbance of nickel ore from Indonesia has weakened. The procurement of nickel ore for new HPAL projects in 2026 has started, and the domestic pure - nickel social inventory has accumulated to about 43,600 tons in October, indicating sufficient supply for smelters [8]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas, and the improvement of downstream consumption needs to be continuously tracked [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook The stainless - steel futures market may continue to oscillate in the short term. Policy expectations and the performance of the "Silver October" demand side are the key factors to break the range. The risk of a callback due to intensified industrial negative feedback should be watched out for [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The inventory pressure is high, and the short - term supply pressure is large, but there is support from chemical demand, and the combustion demand is expected to pick up. Although the spot supply pressure is large and the PG basis has dropped significantly and turned negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the market may not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Key Points from the Table and Analysis - **Price Changes on October 20th - 21st**: - On October 21st, the civil gas prices decreased. In East China, it was 4338 (-7), in Shandong 4090 (-110), and in South China 4450 (-10). The post - ether carbon four was 4400 (-20). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of - 161 (-41), and the November - December spread was 138 (+1). FEI and CP decreased to 456 (-15) and 438 (-9) dollars/ton respectively [1]. - **Weekly Changes and Other Information**: - The PG main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news. The basis was - 20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The overseas market prices dropped sharply. The FEI - CP spread was 20 (+12.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The CP propane - butane arrival discount in South China increased to 78 (+26). Freight rates decreased significantly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window was still open at - 71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct). Next week, the operating enterprises are expected to gradually increase their loads [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the basis data of various futures varieties on October 20, 2025, including macro, black, energy - chemical, non - ferrous, and agricultural products. It shows the spot price, spot price change, basis, basis - corresponding contract, and basis deviation degree of each variety [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - The spot price of IF on October 20, 2025, was 4538, with a change of 24, a basis of 31, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.76 [2]. - The spot price of IH was 2975, with a change of 7, a basis of 4, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.44 [2]. - The spot price of IC was 7070, with a change of 54, a basis of 160, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.96 [2]. Black - For Shanghai's rebar, the spot price on October 20, 2025, was 3200, with no change, a basis of 155, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.84 [3]. - Beijing's rebar had a spot price of 3190, a change of - 10, a basis of 145, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.14 [3]. - Shanghai's hot - rolled coil had a spot price of 3270, no change, a basis of 55, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.80 [3]. - Shandong's iron ore had a spot price of 824, no change, a basis of 57, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.46 [3]. - Tianjin Port's coke had a spot price of 1656, no change, a basis of - 54, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.40 [3]. - Port - warehouse receipt coking coal had a spot price of 1600, a change of 72, a basis of 312, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.32 [3]. - Qinhuangdao Port's thermal coal had a spot price of 753, a change of 9, a basis of - 48, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.26 [3]. - Shahe's low - price glass had a spot price of 1135, a change of - 15, a basis of 44, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.36 [3]. - Hubei's low - price glass had a spot price of 1090, a change of - 20, a basis of - 1, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.28 [3]. - Yinchuan's ferrosilicon had a spot price of 5530, no change, a basis of - 26, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.34 [3]. - Inner Mongolia's ferromanganese had a spot price of 6050, no change, a basis of 262, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.91 [3]. Energy - Chemical - Port methanol had a spot price of 2256, no change, a basis of - 10, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.59 [3]. - Henan methanol had a spot price of 2350, no change, a basis of 84, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.47 [3]. - Lunan methanol had a spot price of 2500, no change, a basis of 234, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.70 [3]. - Hebei methanol had a spot price of 2630, no change, a basis of 364, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.86 [3]. - East China PTA had a spot price of 4299, a change of - 18, a basis of - 85, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.88 [3]. - East China PP had a spot price of 6490, a change of 20, a basis of - 75, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.59 [3]. - North China LLDPE had a spot price of 6840, a change of 10, a basis of - 39, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.10 [3]. - High - end PVC had a spot price of 4630, a change of 15, a basis of - 90, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.65 [3]. - Low - end PVC had a spot price of 4560, a change of 45, a basis of - 160, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.72 [3]. - East China asphalt had a spot price of 3550, no change, a basis of 409, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [3]. - Shandong asphalt had a spot price of 3330, a change of - 30, a basis of 269, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.72 [3]. - South China asphalt had a spot price of 3500, no change, a basis of 359, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [3]. - Inner - market ethylene glycol had a spot price of 4077, no change, a basis of 74, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.70 [3]. - Soda ash had a spot price of 1130, a change of 10, a basis of - 89, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.67 [3]. - Shandong pulp had a spot price of 4960, a change of 10, a basis of - 196, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.74 [3]. - East China short - fiber had a spot price of 6075, a change of - 25, a basis of 47, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.56 [3]. - Urea had a spot price of 1490, no change, a basis of - 110, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.88 [3]. - Shanghai natural rubber had a spot price of 14510, a change of 30, a basis of - 300, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.74 [3]. - Whole - latex natural rubber had a spot price of 13810, a change of 115, a basis of - 1000, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.04 [3]. - Qingdao 20 - number rubber had a spot price of 1825, a change of 10, a basis of 773, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 1.00 [3]. - Styrene had a spot price of 6370, a change of - 115, a basis of 5, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.90 [3]. Non - Ferrous - Copper had a spot price of 85650, a change of 875, a basis of 75, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.30 [4]. - International copper had a spot price of 75790, a change of 710, a basis of - 80, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.69 [4]. - Aluminum had a spot price of 20930, a change of - 20, a basis of 10, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.45 [4]. - Zinc had a spot price of 21870, a change of 20, a basis of - 40, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.60 [4]. - Lead had a spot price of 16925, a change of 25, a basis of - 200, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.31 [4]. - Nickel had a spot price of 121300, a change of - 250, a basis of 400, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.78 [4]. - Tin had a spot price of 280000, a change of - 1000, a basis of 660, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.35 [4]. Agricultural Products - 43% Jiangsu soybean meal had a spot price of 2870, no change, a basis of - 25, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.08 [5]. - Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil had a spot price of 8540, a change of 50, a basis of 242, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.12 [5]. - Guangdong average - price 36% rapeseed meal had a spot price of 2480, a change of 40, a basis of 130, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [5]. - Market average - price rapeseed oil had a spot price of 10420, a change of 77, a basis of 502, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 1.00 [5]. - Guangzhou 24° palm oil had a spot price of 9290, a change of 80, a basis of - 28, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.75 [5]. - National cotton had a spot price of 14480, a change of 45, a basis of 1015, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.58 [5]. - Guangxi white sugar had a spot price of 5770, a change of - 20, a basis of 342, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.26 [5]. - Yunnan white sugar had a spot price of 5840, a change of - 20, a basis of 412, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.58 [5]. - Hebei Shijiazhuang fresh eggs had a spot price of 2890, a change of - 110, a basis of 120, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.05 [5]. - Liaoning Dalian fresh eggs had a spot price of 2820, a change of - 110, a basis of 50, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.16 [5]. - Shandong Dezhou fresh eggs had a spot price of 2750, a change of - 100, a basis of - 20, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.24 [5]. - Henan Shangqiu fresh eggs had a spot price of 2800, a change of - 100, a basis of 30, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.36 [5]. - Bei'an soybeans had a spot price of 4050, no change, a basis of - 36, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.78 [5]. - Jiamusi soybeans had a spot price of 4120, no change, a basis of 34, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.45 [5]. - Changchun corn had a spot price of 2240, no change, a basis of 102, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.44 [5]. - Weifang corn had a spot price of 2360, no change, a basis of 222, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.45 [5]. - Changchun starch had a spot price of 2580, no change, a basis of 170, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.67 [5]. - Weifang starch had a spot price of 2605, no change, a basis of 225, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [5]. - Henan Kaifeng pigs had a spot price of 11400, a change of 160, a basis of - 755, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.94 [5]. - Hebei jujubes had a spot price of 9600, no change, a basis of - 1785, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.84 [5]. - Shandong apples had a spot price of 6400, a change of - 1000, a basis of - 2465, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.98 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Polyester Industry**: In the short term, PX, PTA, and other products are mainly in a weak shock state. The supply of PX is expected to shrink, but the overall supply - demand is still weak. PTA's basis has weakened, and the supply of ethylene glycol is abundant with a high probability of inventory accumulation. Short - fiber prices are supported by low inventory, and bottle - chips may enter a seasonal inventory accumulation channel [1]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene in October is expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure in the short term [2]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The demand for caustic soda is weakly supported in the short term but may have support in the medium - long term. The supply - demand pressure of PVC is large, and the price is weak, but the cost end provides bottom support [3]. - **Methanol Industry**: The price of methanol may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the stability of overseas device operation, the clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and the actual arrival performance [4]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (December) remained unchanged, CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, etc [1]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 1.2%, FDY150/96 price decreased by 0.1%, etc [1]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX remained unchanged, PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 1.2%, etc [1]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price decreased by 0.6%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 0.4%, etc [1]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.4%, EG futures 2601 remained unchanged, etc [1]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.4%, China PX operating rate decreased by 2.5%, etc [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (November) remained unchanged, CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, etc [2]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot decreased by 1.7%, EB futures 2511 decreased by 1.8%, etc [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flow of phenol increased by 20.8%, the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) increased by 4.1%, etc [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 10.0%, styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.1% [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.1%, domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 4.8%, etc [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 1.2%, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 0.8%, etc [3]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB East China port decreased by 5.0%, export profit decreased by 77.6% [3]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged, CEREDIa decreased by 1.4%, etc [3]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits**: Caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 3.9%, PVC total operating rate decreased by 7.0%, etc [3]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates**: Viscose staple fiber industry operating rate decreased by 1.1%, printing and dyeing industry operating rate increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates**: Longzhong sample building materials operating rate increased by 21.8%, Longzhong sample profile operating rate increased by 109.6% [3]. - **Chlor - Alkali Inventories: Social and Factory Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 1.1%, PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 6.1% [3]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 0.26%, MA2605 closing price increased by 0.09%, etc [4]. - **Methanol Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, methanol port inventory decreased by 3.36%, etc [4]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.86%, upstream - overseas enterprise operating rate increased by 2.28%, etc [4]. Polyolefin Industry - **Polyolefin Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price increased by 0.07%, L2509 closing price increased by 0.30%, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Non - Standard Prices**: East China LDPE price decreased by 0.54%, East China HD film price remained unchanged, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26%, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Inventories**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67%, PE social inventory increased by 4.02%, etc [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market continues to be weak, with PE and PP prices under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and weakening cost support [1][2][3] - For PE, the continuous decline is due to loose supply - demand fundamentals, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices. For PP, the weakening is dragged down by falling crude oil and propane prices, along with a loose supply - demand pattern [2][3] - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and provides strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6879 yuan/ton (+5), PP main contract at 6565 yuan/ton (+14). LL North China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (+30), LL East China spot at 6950 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6580 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis was 1 yuan/ton (+25), LL East China basis 71 yuan/ton (-5), PP East China basis 15 yuan/ton (-4) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 492.1 yuan/ton (-17.4), PP oil - based production profit was - 127.9 yuan/ton (-17.4), PDH - based PP production profit was 110.2 yuan/ton (-21.6) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 150.2 yuan/ton (+0.3), PP import profit was - 573.0 yuan/ton (-49.7), PP export profit was 31.3 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: Recent continuous decline is due to loose supply - demand, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices. Supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Demand follows up limitedly, and cost support weakens. Monitor cost and macro - policy impacts [2] - **PP**: The weakening of the futures market is due to falling crude oil and propane prices and a loose supply - demand pattern. Supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Demand follows up insufficiently, and cost support weakens. Monitor propane supply and PDH device operation [3] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile, focus on macro - dynamics [4] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4] - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply pressure of PVC decreased, but next week, the number of overhauls is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4659 - 4717. The fundamentals are neutral, and factors such as macro - policies and export dynamics should be continuously monitored [6]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [6][9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 317,720 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 149,660 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. Next week, the number of overhauls is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 48.59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 33.26%, a month - on - month increase of 7.39 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 72.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.569 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 46.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 30.4 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand is close to the historical average [6]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 713.18 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 14.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 552.76 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 2.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,363.45 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On October 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,660 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 28 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 360,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.06%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 277,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.71%. The ethylene factory inventory was 83,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. The social inventory was 556,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.76%. It is bearish [6]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [6]. 2. PVC Market Overview - Various indicators such as prices, spreads,开工率, profits, and inventories of different types of PVC enterprises and contracts are presented, including changes compared with the previous values and their respective growth or decline rates [13]. 3. PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The historical basis trend of PVC, along with the East China market price and the main contract closing price, is shown from 2022 to 2025 [16]. - **Price and Volume Trend**: The price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from September to October 2025 are presented [19]. - **Spread Analysis**: The historical spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 are shown [22]. 4. PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: The price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and other data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [25][28][30][32]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production profits, daily and weekly production, and overhaul volumes of PVC are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [37][39]. - **Demand Trend**: The daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream开工率 of different products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and related data of the real estate market and social financing scale are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [41][44][46][51][54]. - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [56]. - **Ethylene Method**: The import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export, are presented [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on October 20, 2025, including the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of different commodities in multiple sectors such as power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide reference for investors in futures trading. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from October 13 to October 17, 2025, shows that the basis was - 87.4, - 81.4, - 70.4, - 60.4, and - 53.4 yuan/ton respectively, with a continuous increase trend. The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 during this period [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis, ratio, and other indicators from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 7.78, 6.92, 8.63, 15.20, and 82.20 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 690, - 595, - 645, - 600, and - 445 yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was - 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on October 17 was 2187 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 57.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 17 was 3.95 [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of copper on October 17 was 350 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin) on October 17, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (16.83) [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on October 17 was - 48 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for various agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 32 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on October 17 was 2.88 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 17 was 29.03 [50]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 42.5 [50].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Hedging Weekly Report - Report Date: October 17, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite continued to decline this week, with broad - based indexes falling on shrinking volume, and the market style tilted towards large - cap value. The Shanghai Composite 50 index fell only 0.24% this week, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 tumbled nearly 5%, and the Sci - tech Innovation and ChiNext sectors continued to decline, with a weekly decline of nearly 6% [4]. - The basis continued its high - volatility pattern this week. As of Friday, the basis of each variety decreased compared with last week. The premium of IH narrowed to about 0.6%, the annualized discounts of IF and IC widened to about 2.6% and 12% respectively, and the discount of IM was basically the same as last week [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - **Futures Basis Data**: Provided the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, including last week's basis, this week's basis, basis changes, and index - enhanced annualized returns. For example, in the IF2510 contract, the basis changed from - 3.03 last week to 25.37 this week, with a change of 28.40 [2]. - **Market Conditions and Basis Analysis**: After the external relations fluctuated last weekend, the A - share market showed a complex trend. The overall market risk appetite declined, and the basis was highly volatile. The term structure of the remaining contracts was flat after the October contracts expired, and the hedging costs were similar [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: This week, the average daily trading volume of IH was 78,080 contracts, a 17.0% increase from the previous week, and the open interest was 97,922 contracts, a 7.4% decrease. Similar data were provided for IF, IC, and IM [5]. - **Basis after Considering Dividends**: Presented the basis data after considering dividends for different contracts of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, basis after considering dividends, expected total dividend points, and annualized premium/discount rates [6]. 2. Hedging Profit and Loss - **Hedging Profit and Loss Data**: Provided the hedging profit and loss data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for last week and this week. For example, the hedging profit and loss of the IF2510 contract changed from - 3.26 last week to - 28.40 this week [11]. - **Hedging Profit and Loss Charts**: Presented the 60 - trading - day cumulative hedging profit and loss charts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The PG futures market has rebounded recently, driven by factors such as a technical bounce after an oversold situation and concerns about potential supply disruptions from the US due to tariff threats. However, considering the uncertainties in macro and policy aspects during the China - US negotiation window and the expected continuation of the global oversupply situation in LPG, there are still resistances in the market [1] Market Analysis Summary - On October 16, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4180 - 4300 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3910 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4450 yuan/ton; East China market, 4200 - 4310 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4620 - 4810 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4490 - 4530 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 539 dollars/ton and 544 dollars/ton respectively, both up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4211 yuan/ton and 4250 yuan/ton in RMB, up 14 yuan/ton each. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 533 dollars/ton and 538 dollars/ton respectively, also up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4164 yuan/ton and 4203 yuan/ton in RMB, up 14 yuan/ton each [1] - The recent rebound of the PG futures is due to an oversold bounce. After Saudi Arabia cut the October CP price more than expected, the overseas market dropped during the National Day holiday, and the domestic futures followed suit. The spot market was relatively stable, leading to a stronger basis. After the price decline, the cost reduction of raw materials is conducive to the marginal repair of downstream chemical profits and demand. The narrowing price difference between LPG and naphtha will stimulate the switch of raw materials from naphtha to LPG. The threat of US tariffs has also strengthened the rebound sentiment. But due to the uncertainties in macro and policy and the expected continuation of the global oversupply of LPG, the market resistance remains [1]