Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES gives a ★★★ rating to silicon iron, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity; a ☆☆☆ rating to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and silicon manganese, suggesting a short-term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market has a weak domestic demand and is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The iron ore market has increasing supply pressure and short-term market uncertainty, and is expected to fluctuate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and their price rebound space is not overly optimistic under inventory pressure [4][5] - The silicon manganese market has limited improvement in fundamentals, with manganese ore prices likely to decline further [6] - The silicon iron market has acceptable overall demand and a slight decrease in inventory, with attention paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand and production both declined, and the inventory reduction slowed down; hot-rolled coil's demand, production, and inventory all decreased slightly; the pig iron output is still relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation is still fermenting; the market sentiment provides some support, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upward space [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment volume has declined, the domestic arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased; the terminal demand is weak in the off-season, the steel mill profitability rate has decreased, and the pig iron output has changed little; the market has certain policy expectations, and the external geopolitical risk has increased [3] Coke - The pig iron output has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts; the coking profit has shrunk, and the daily coking output has declined; the overall inventory has decreased slightly, and the traders' purchasing willingness is still low; the price has rebounded due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, but the rebound space is limited [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal mine output has declined slightly, and the spot auction market is still weak; the terminal inventory has decreased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly; the price has rebounded due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, but the rebound space is limited [5] Silicon Manganese - Driven by rebar, the price has increased; a large steel mill in the north has a lower tender inquiry price; the inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly output has started to increase; the manganese ore price is under pressure, and the manganese mine's price support intention has increased [6] Silicon Iron - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price has increased; the pig iron output has decreased slightly; the export demand is stable, and the secondary demand is high; the supply has decreased, the market transaction level is average, and the inventory has decreased slightly [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均延续小幅反弹的走势。最新公布的财新 5 月制造业 PMI 数据大幅下行，说 明 5 月抢出口效应走弱，未来出口订单面临较大压力。叠加特朗普 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data presents a mixed picture, with various sectors showing signs of weakness, indicating that the market needs time to digest the pressure [3][4][5] - Industrial enterprises' added value increased by 6.1%, but this represents a significant decline compared to the previous month, reflecting concerns at the company level [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% in April, but this is a noticeable drop from 5.9% in March, indicating a weakening demand [3][4] Group 2 - The consumption sector faces challenges, particularly due to price wars and a lack of pricing power, which is expected to persist in the short term [4] - The liquor industry, especially white liquor, is under pressure due to new government regulations aimed at reducing waste, which could lead to a long-term decline in consumption [4] - Real estate investment fell by 10.3% in April, marking a significant drag on the economy, with first-tier cities experiencing a shift from rising to falling second-hand housing prices [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is in a rebound phase, expected to last for about a month, with a target height of around 3,400 points, followed by a potential second adjustment to around 3,200 points later in June to July [1][5][8] - Compared to 2018-2019, the current economic situation has improved, with a stronger RMB exchange rate and a domestic policy cycle leaning towards stabilizing or even increasing leverage [1][6] - The market is still in a bull market cycle, with tariff shocks being likened to historical black swan events, suggesting a potential recovery of losses from mid-March to early April [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - The rebound is primarily driven by policy expectations and the potential for US-China negotiations, with the market likely to recover most of the declines from late March to early April [2][12] - The current economic conditions are significantly better than in 2018-2019, with improvements in consumer and growth industry profits, and a stabilizing manufacturing sector [6][9] - The market's structural profit-making effect remains, with increasing opportunities in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and robotics [1][9] Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The second adjustment in the market is expected to occur due to the lingering impact of tariffs on corporate profits, despite the market having recovered some index-level impacts [2][5][8] - The current growth stock bull market differs from historical patterns, suggesting a need for internal switching between high and low growth stocks, and a phased allocation to value themes to manage volatility [14][15] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on sectors with growth potential and stable performance, such as new consumption, military, non-ferrous metals, and banking [11][10] Future Market Predictions - The market is anticipated to continue its rebound, with a potential peak around 3,400 points before a second adjustment to approximately 3,200 points [5][16] - The sustainability of the current rebound is contingent on the outcomes of US-China negotiations and domestic policy developments, with close monitoring required for timely strategy adjustments [12][16]

Group 1 - The China Securities 500 Quality Growth Index (930939) has shown a slight increase of 0.22% as of April 30, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Amlogic (688099) up 4.29% and Anker Innovations (300866) up 3.80% [1] - The 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) has also risen by 0.22%, with the latest price reported at 0.92 yuan, and a significant increase in shares by 5 million this month, ranking it in the top third among comparable funds [1] - Huaxi Securities highlights the role of the Chinese version of the stabilization fund in supporting the A-share market, emphasizing a higher positioning for "stabilizing and activating the stock market" compared to previous times [1] Group 2 - The 500 Quality Growth ETF closely tracks the China Securities 500 Quality Growth Index, which selects 100 companies with high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow from the broader 500 Index [2] - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) and Ninebot (689009), with the top ten stocks accounting for a total weight of 24.26% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The trading volume of the two markets has been continuously declining, with frequent sector rotations and a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The core of domestic market trading is policy expectations and external tariff disturbances. The A - share market's sensitivity to tariff policies has weakened, and without an obvious and clear policy shift, it is difficult to have a significant impact on domestic stock indices. Domestic policies are expected to act according to the progress of tariff games and economic data. Before a change occurs, the volatile market is likely to continue. As tomorrow is the last trading day before the holiday, the market is expected to maintain a cautious attitude for pre - holiday risk avoidance. Important US economic data will be released during the May Day holiday, which may affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and thus disrupt the A - share market. Therefore, it is necessary to be vigilant about the increased volatility of stock indices after the holiday [6] Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 34.226 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH declined with shrinking volume, while IC and IM rose with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The US Treasury Secretary claimed that China is responsible for the escalation of the tariff war. The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China has repeatedly made it clear that there are no winners in tariff and trade wars. The tariff war was initiated by the US. If the US wants to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and pressuring and conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity. - The Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue 71 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds on May 9. The re - issued treasury bonds are 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bonds, with the same coupon rate as the previously issued bonds of the same period, which is 1.88% [5] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | -0.21% | -0.35% | 0.23% | 0.7% | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 6.3647 | 3.3464 | 6.492 | 17.8842 | | Trading volume MoM | -0.5073 | -0.3138 | -0.3088 | -0.9018 | | Open interest | 241,073 | 78,771 | 198,932 | 310,352 | | Open interest MoM | -2,958 | -195 | -832 | -5,159 | [6] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.05 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.05 | | | Ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks | 2.13 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 102.2083 | | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -34.226 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current trading core of the domestic market is policy expectations and external tariff disturbances. The A-share market's sensitivity to tariff policies has weakened, and domestic policies are expected to act according to tariff game progress and economic data. Before a change occurs, the volatile market is likely to continue. With the decline in trading volume today, the market sentiment is cautious, and the market is expected to remain cautious during the three - trading - day week before the holiday, with the stock index maintaining a volatile trend [6] Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance. Except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, all others closed down. The turnover of the two markets decreased by 572.58 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH rose with shrinking volume, while other varieties fell with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the central bank's independence from political intervention. The Fed is in a quiet period, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for the third time. The IMF lowered the forecast of Asia's GDP growth rate to 3.9% this year and warned of further downward risks [5] - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 1509.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The National Development and Reform Commission said it has rich policy reserves and will speed up the implementation of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with most policies to be implemented in the second quarter [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | -0.19% | 0.06% | -0.52% | -0.97% | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 6.872 | 3.6602 | 6.8008 | 18.786 | | Trading volume change | -1.3541 | -0.7492 | -1.2934 | -3.8222 | | Open interest | 244031 | 78966 | 199764 | 315511 | | Open interest change | -1592 | -3111 | -5259 | -7247 | [7][8] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.20 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.62 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.30 | | Turnover of the two markets (billion yuan) | 10563.09 | | Turnover change (billion yuan) | -572.58 | [8]

| ICTERHER | | | 投资咨询业务资格 · 证监许可 2012 · · | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 唐笛吹赤 1 | 17 | | 研究院:李泽钜 | | 发布日期:2025/04 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 月底中央政治局会议渐行渐近,政策预期犹存,股指赛略仍以逢低布局多 | | | | | 头为王。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | | | 关税不确定性仍高企。商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期反弹后价格存在回调 风险。 | | | 铝 | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确定性,铝价震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 農汤 | 氧化铝供需格局有所好转,预计下行空间有限,但上行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US trade friction is at a standstill with high uncertainty, and there are still domestic policy expectations. In the short term, the hot metal production remains at a high level, providing some support for the raw material demand. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, and the supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose. Before the holiday, it is expected to fluctuate mainly. To avoid policy risks, it is recommended to continue to reduce short positions and hold a light position during the holiday [4][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke 3.1.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The second - round price increase of spot coke has started but not yet landed, and the spot price is mainly stable. The coke 09 contract rose 0.87% to 1566 as of Friday's close. The freight rate of coke by truck remained stable last week [8][9][10] 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and coke supply increased significantly. As of April 25, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises nationwide was 75.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 66.85 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.52 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking was 87.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 47.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 tons [28][34] 3.1.3 Demand - Hot metal production accelerated its recovery, and steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. As of April 25, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,300 tons; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points. The speculative sentiment was average, export profits declined, and the spot trading volume of building materials remained low [37][40] 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills made rigid - demand purchases, coke enterprises slightly reduced their inventories, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of April 25, the total coke inventory decreased by 29,600 tons week - on - week to 1.0148 million tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 25,200 tons week - on - week to 243,580 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 23,900 tons week - on - week to 104,870 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory increased by 19,500 tons week - on - week to 666,350 tons [43][46] 3.1.5 Profit - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and the coke futures profit fluctuated. The national sample of 30 independent coke enterprises had a loss of 9 yuan per ton of coke, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan. The futures profit of coke 09 increased by 3.45 yuan per ton week - on - week to 323.2 yuan per ton [54] 3.1.6 Valuation - Coke 09 had a slight premium, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 13.5 week - on - week to - 79.39, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 week - on - week to - 28.5 [58] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The spot price mainly weakened. The coking coal 09 contract rose 0.37% to 956 as of Friday's close [4][61] 3.2.2 Supply - The impact of coal mine production cuts was limited, the operating rate of coal washing plants increased, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the import of coking coal from January to March 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As of April 25, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants nationwide was 63.01%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points; the daily average output of clean coal was 534,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,400 tons. From January to March 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 27.47 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 2.32% [72][76] 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises reduced their inventories, coal mines accumulated inventories, and the total inventory remained flat. As of April 25, the total coking coal inventory increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week to 2.61251 million tons. Among them, the inventory of coking coal in mining enterprises increased by 212,600 tons week - on - week to 354,600 tons; the port inventory decreased by 125,900 tons week - on - week to 324,790 tons; the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 3,500 tons week - on - week to 181,680 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 71,700 tons week - on - week to 968,960 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory decreased by 17,500 tons week - on - week to 782,480 tons [79][82] 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 had a slight discount, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 3.5 week - on - week to 14, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged week - on - week at - 48 [101]

Group 1: US Market Dynamics - The US stock market experienced a significant rally, with the Nasdaq index rising over 6.7% from April 23 to 25, driven by strong performances from tech giants like Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google [1] - Tesla's stock surged nearly 25% in a week following CEO Elon Musk's announcement to focus more on company operations and the US government's easing of autonomous driving regulations [1] - The Federal Reserve officials indicated potential interest rate cuts, with Cleveland Fed President Mester suggesting cuts could begin in June, which fueled market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Concerns - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies remains a significant concern, with conflicting statements about potential tariff rollbacks creating market volatility [3] - Despite hints from Trump about possibly retracting some tariffs, the US Commerce Department denied any progress in negotiations, leading to a decline in consumer confidence as prices for goods on platforms like Temu and Shein rose by 20% to 100% due to tariffs [3] - Analysts warn that persistent high tariffs could exacerbate inflation and slow economic growth, potentially prompting the Fed to implement more aggressive rate cuts [3] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is experiencing a narrow trading range characterized by upward pressure and downward support, with significant resistance at the trading volume zone from April 7 [3][4] - Despite a slight increase in margin trading balances, there is a net outflow from equity ETFs, indicating some investors are taking profits amid the rebound [3] - UBS analysts predict a potential recovery in A-share earnings, with the CSI 300 index expected to see a 6% growth in earnings per share, supported by increased fiscal policies and continued inflow from individual investors [4] Group 4: Sector Performance and Investment Strategies - A-share sectors benefiting from clear domestic policy direction, such as large financials and self-sufficient industries, are expected to lead the market, while export-dependent sectors face risks from US tariff policies [7] - The current influx of retail investors into the A-share market is notable, with 3.9 million new accounts opened in October 2024, significantly higher than the average [8] - The market is likely to open higher on Monday, but the ability to break through resistance levels will depend on trading volume; sectors aligned with policy support and earnings recovery should be prioritized for investment [11]