2025.12.8-12.12 电解铝 期货品种周报 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 波动加大，轻仓持多为宜。 上周策略回顾 短线多单建议离场观望，中期多单继续持有。 本周策略建议 持有足量现货库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 下周美联储12月降息落地后市场或有小幅修正，但在全球供应严重缺乏弹性 +储能金属题材预期+历史低位库存+历史低位的铝铜比价等因素支撑下，铝 价偏强格局预计延续。 2 【总体观点】 | | 2025年12月第1周 | | --- | --- | | | 根据Mysteel调研，几内亚停产矿山的复产流程正在稳步推进，另外新矿山的发运计划进展顺利，后 | | 铝土矿市场 | 续总体供应稳中有增。本周由于氧化铝亏损加重，采购迟疑导致进口矿价格有所回落，不过据钢联 | | | 调研，12月份待售现货全部售出海漂现货市场较为收紧。 | | | 截止12月6日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9650万吨（上周9740万吨），产能利 | | | 用率约86.2%，据Mysteel调研统计，2026年氧化铝新投产能约144 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: None - **Neutral Outlook**: PX, PTA, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, Paper Pulp, Urea, Benzene, Styrene, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (European Route) [2][5][13][17][20][27][38][51][54][88][91][95][71][73] - **Negative Outlook**: MEG, PP, Caustic Soda, Glass, Methanol, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC [2][5][30][34][43][46][57][59][60][68] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market news, to assist investors in making decisions. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors. For example, some commodities are affected by raw material costs, while others are influenced by production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment [2][5][8][12] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 PX, PTA, and MEG - **PX**: It is in a high - level oscillating market supported by costs. The supply is expected to shrink, and the long - PX and short - BZ strategy can be continued, along with the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy [2][5][12] - **PTA**: It shows a unilateral high - level oscillating market, supported by PX costs. The long - PX and short - PTA strategy can be held, along with the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy [2][5][12] - **MEG**: The price hits a new low, and the trend is weak. The willingness to hold positions decreases, and attention can be paid to the positive spread of the monthly difference [2][5][12] 3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It oscillates. Overseas floodwaters recede, and production resumes, causing a decline in Thai raw materials. The domestic market is in the off - cutting season, and raw materials are firm [13][14][15] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates and declines. The supply of butadiene is slightly reduced, and the demand is stable. The synthetic rubber has fundamental pressure but is supported by valuation [17][18][19] 3.3 Asphalt - It is in a low - level oscillation, and factory inventories slightly increase. The weekly output decreases, factory inventories are flat, and social inventories decrease [20][26] 3.4 LLDPE - The basis declines, and the supply remains loose. The raw material price oscillates, the downstream demand is weak, and the mid - term supply - demand pressure exists [27][28] 3.5 PP - The mid - term trend still faces pressure. The supply is high, the demand peak has passed, and although the short - term market is strong, the trend pressure is large [30][31] 3.6 Caustic Soda - The trend still faces pressure. The high - production, high - inventory pattern continues, the demand is weak, and the cost support is limited [34][35][36] 3.7 Paper Pulp - It oscillates. The price of imported pulp rises emotionally, but the demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [38][41][42] 3.8 Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the rigid demand is weak [43][44] 3.9 Methanol - It operates under pressure. The port inventory decreases slightly, the short - term de - stocking slows down, and the mid - term supply pressure is high [46][49] 3.10 Urea - It gradually enters an oscillating pattern. The enterprise inventory decreases, the demand improves, and the price is supported, but the policy pressure may appear [51][52][53] 3.11 Benzene and Styrene - **Benzene**: It oscillates in the short term. The short - term reality is weak, but the long - term supply contraction expectation is strong [54][55] - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The downstream inventory pressure is high, and the supply pressure is not large [54][55] 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general [57] 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The trend is under pressure. The CP price changes, and there are many device maintenance plans [59][60][65] - **Propylene**: The pattern remains loose. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is under pressure [60] 3.14 PVC - It oscillates at a low level. The inventory increases, the short - term is not suitable for short - selling, and the supply may decrease in the future [68][69] 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It rebounds slightly, possibly getting out of the weak state temporarily [71] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session weakens, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrows slightly [71] 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Route) - It oscillates strongly due to geopolitical disturbances and price - increase announcements. The short - term capital sentiment is optimistic, but the high price may not be sustainable in the mid - term [73][85][86] 3.17 Short - fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - fiber**: It oscillates in the short term and faces pressure in the mid - term. The futures are weak, and the spot sales are sluggish [88] - **Bottle Chip**: It oscillates in the short term and faces pressure in the mid - term. The upstream raw materials are weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is light [88][89] 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to take profits on long positions opportunely. The market price is stable, the demand is weak, and the cost increases [91][92][94] 3.19 Pure Benzene - It oscillates mainly in the short term. The inventory accumulates, and the short - term reality is weak, but the long - term supply contraction expectation is strong [95][96]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，零星聚酯工厂补货。12月货在01贴30~35附近商 谈成交，价格商谈区间在4675~4710。本周仓单在01-39成交，下周初仓单在01-35有成交，今日主流现货基差在01-32。中性 2、基差：现货4685，01合约基差-39，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：日内PTA现货市场商谈氛围清淡，报递盘僵持，期 ...

【期现】 截至12月4日收盘，焦煤期货震荡反弹走势，以收盘价统计，焦煤主力2601合约+21.0(+1.96%)至 1091.5，焦煤远月2605合约+19.5(+1.67%)至1184.0，1-5价差走强至-92.5。S1.3G75山西主焦煤(介休)仓 单1300元/吨，环比+0.0元/吨，基差+208.5元/吨；S1.3G75主焦煤(蒙5)沙河驿仓单1205元/吨(对标)，环 比+0.0元/吨，蒙5仓单基差+113.5元/吨。焦煤期货低位震荡，山西煤焦现货继续下跌，蒙煤现货报价企 稳。 【供给】 截至12月4日，全样本独立焦化厂焦炭日均产量64.5万吨/日，周环比+0.8万吨/日，247家钢厂焦炭日均 产量46.6万吨/日，周环比+0.3万吨/日，总产量为111.1万吨/日，周环比+1.1万吨/日。 截至12月4日，日均铁水产量232.30万吨/日，环比-2.38万吨/日；高炉开工率80.16%，环比-0.93%；高炉 炼铁产能利用率87.08%，环比-0.89%；钢厂盈利率36.36%，环比+1.3%。 【库存】 截至12月4日，焦煤总库存(矿山+洗煤厂+焦化厂+钢厂+16港+口岸)周环比+56.0至3 ...

成文日期: 20251202 报告周期: 日度 研究品种:豆粕 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 豆粕期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251202）期货品种豆粕 m2601 合约价格呈窄幅波动 走势。以 3033 元/吨为开盘价，盘中最高上涨至 3048 元/吨，最低 下跌至 3029 元/吨，终盘报收于 3045 元/吨，较昨日上涨 1 元/吨, 参考涨幅 0.03%。全日成交量 494360 手，持仓量为 1164957 手。 1.2 品种价格 当日豆粕期货各合约价大多小幅上涨,品种合约总持仓量为 3785832 手，较上一交易日增加 25028 手。 图 2：豆粕期货日行情表 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 ：豆粕 m2601 分时图 数据来源:国金期货-文华财经赢顺 WH6 | 合约名称 | 最新 涨跌 涨幅% 成交量 持仓量 日增仓 | | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 结算 | | --- | --- ...

生猪产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月5日 朱迪 70015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 王力合约基左 | -82 | -240 | 155 | 64.58% | | | 生猪2605 | 11870 | 11925 | -22 | -0.46% | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 11385 | 11490 | -105 | -0.91% | | | 生猪1-5价差 | -485 | -435 | -50 | -11.49% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 90529 | 91758 | -1229 | -1.34% | | | 仓单 | 85 | 0 | 85 | #DIV/0! | 主 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11300 | 11250 | 50.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11250 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 4, the coke主力合约 closed at 1,651.5 yuan/ton, up 1.69% intraday. The position of the主力 contract was 27,065 lots at the close, a decrease of 2,216 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased by 2.99% week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port remained flat. Coke daily output increased, but the daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills decreased, and the steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35.06%. In December, there is still uncertainty in coking coal supply, and the Politburo meeting may bring macro - level benefits, which creates resistance to further decline of coke futures. The main contract rebounded slightly at the lower edge of the trading range [6][37]. - On December 4, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 1,091.5 points, up 1.11% intraday. The position of the main contract was 350,729 lots at the close, a decrease of 41,446 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 6.3% week - on - week. In November, coking coal production increased, and imports accelerated, resulting in insufficient supply - side support and a weakening market sentiment. However, considering the December Politburo economic meeting and the end - of - year coal mine production reduction expectation, there is resistance to further decline of coking coal futures. The focus remains on coal mine production [7][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - From January to October this year, global new ship order volume was 1,632 vessels and 94.87 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decline of 44.5%. It is expected that the average annual demand in the global shipbuilding market during the 15th Five - Year Plan period will be about 110 million deadweight tons and 42 million compensated gross tons, a decrease of about 20% compared with the average of the 14th Five - Year Plan period but still about 50% higher than that of the 13th Five - Year Plan period [9]. - On December 4, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,500 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - first - class Coke (Flat - price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | - 2.99% | - 2.99% | - 4.14% | - 9.50% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - first - class Coke (Out - of - warehouse) | 1,450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 13.17% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 6.25% | - 6.25% | 1.69% | - 9.77% | | Jingtang Port Australian - produced Coking Coal | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.37% | - 1.26% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced Coking Coal | 1,650 yuan/ton | - 3.51% | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,651.5 | 1.69% | 1,667.5 | 1,615.0 | 196,462 | 2,295 | 27,065 | - 2,216 | | Coking Coal | | 1,091.5 | 1.11% | 1,096.5 | 1,059.5 | 337,231 | - 85,112 | 350,729 | - 41,446 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and full - sample independent coking plants from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [29][30][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is similar to the core view, with the main contract rebounding slightly due to supply uncertainty and potential macro - level benefits, and attention should be paid to coal mine production [37]. - The outlook for coking coal is also in line with the core view, with resistance to further decline due to the Politburo meeting and end - of - year production reduction expectation, and the key lies in coal mine production [38].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 土泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月4日 | | 原田 | | 现价 江苏一级 8620 8620 0 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8286 8288 -2 -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2601 334 332 2 0.60% | | 江苏1月 01+260 01+270 现货基差报价 -10 | | 8619 | | 棕榈油 | | 12月3日 12月2日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 8720 8620 现价 广东24度 100 1.16% | | 8720 0.11% 期价 P2601 8730 10 | | 基差 P2601 -10 -100 90 90.00% | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+0 50 ត | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9195.1 9091.7 103.4 1.14% | | 盘面进口利润 -372 -93 -25.14% 广州港1月 -465 | | 仓单 352 355 0.00% 0 | | 菜籽油 | | 现价 江苏三级 10050 10080 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High - level oscillatory market, maintain long PX short BZ, 5 - 9 positive spread [2][8] - PTA: Single - sided high - level oscillatory market, hold long PX short PTA, 5 - 9 positive spread [2][9] - MEG: Hold long MEG short PTA, price oscillates between 3800 - 4000, focus on positive spread of monthly difference [2][9] - Rubber: Oscillatory and weak [2][10] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillatory decline [2][14] - LLDPE: Basis turns positive, supply remains loose [2][17] - PP: Short - term rebound, medium - term trend still under pressure [2][19] - Caustic soda: Trend still under pressure [2][23] - Pulp: Oscillatory operation [2][28] - Glass: Original sheet price stable [2][32] - Methanol: Oscillatory operation, upside space narrowing [2][36] - Urea: Spot trading volume continuously increasing, price center rising [2][41] - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [2][44] - Soda ash: Spot market with little change [2][48] - LPG: Trend under pressure [2][51] - Propylene: Pattern remains loose [2][52] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2][62] - Fuel oil: Narrow adjustment, weak trend continuing [2][63] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Night session continuing to weaken, spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices narrowing slightly [2][63] - Freight index (European line): Oscillatory market [2][65] - Staple fiber: Cost - supported, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][77] - Bottle chips: Cost - supported, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][77] - Offset printing paper: Low - level oscillation [2][80] - Pure benzene: Short - term mainly oscillatory [2][84] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the performance of various commodities in the energy and chemical industry is differentiated, with some in oscillatory markets, some under pressure, and some showing signs of improvement. Factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment comprehensively influence the price trends of commodities [2] - For some commodities, short - term and medium - term trends may differ, and investors need to pay attention to changes in fundamentals and market news [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: PXN continues to widen, with supply expected to shrink as domestic operating rate is 88.5% (-1%), some devices have maintenance plans, and demand from PTA increases as its operating rate rises to 73.7% (+1.6%). However, overseas gasoline market impacts PX valuation [5][8] - **PTA**: With the restart of some devices, the operating rate rises to 73.7% (+1.6%), and polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+0.2%). Supported by PX cost, the single - sided price is in a high - level oscillatory market, but beware of the negative feedback from the terminal industry [9] - **MEG**: The price center drops, with supply tightening as some domestic devices have changes and overseas devices are under maintenance, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally. Hold long MEG short PTA [6][9] Rubber - The rubber market is oscillatory and weak, with the futures price falling, trading volume and open interest decreasing. The spot price also declines, and the demand from the tire industry is weak [10][11] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in an oscillatory decline. Although the inventory of some products decreases, the market is affected by natural rubber and butadiene news, with weak downstream demand and high supply suppressing the price upside [14][15] LLDPE - The LLDPE basis turns positive, but the supply remains loose. The futures price is weak, which dampens market sentiment. The downstream replenishment is cautious, and the supply pressure may increase in the medium - term [17][18] PP - PP shows a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is relatively high, and the demand peak has passed. Although the short - term trading volume improves due to low prices, the long - term factors such as cost, supply, and demand still dominate [19][20] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is under pressure, with high production and inventory. The demand from the alumina industry is weak, and the export is under pressure. The spot price is expected to decline [23][25] Pulp - The pulp market is in an oscillatory operation. The price rises due to supply tightening expectations and cost support. The demand for living paper is stable, and attention should be paid to port inventory and downstream procurement [28][30] Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the rigid demand is still weak, and the market is mainly for rigid - demand pick - up [32][33] Methanol - Methanol is in an oscillatory operation with narrowing upside space. The port inventory decreases, but the short - term destocking speed slows down. The high supply pressure in the domestic market is the main contradiction, and the MTO profit is compressed [36][39] Urea - The urea spot trading volume increases continuously, and the price center rises. The enterprise inventory decreases, and the demand from reserves and exports improves. The short - term price is strong, but the medium - term upside is limited [41][42] Styrene - Styrene is in a short - term oscillatory state. The pure benzene market is under pressure in the short - term but may improve in the future. The supply of styrene is stable, and the downstream inventory is high [44][45] Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [48][49] LPG and Propylene - LPG is under pressure, and propylene's pattern remains loose. The prices of LPG and propylene futures decline, and the operating rates of relevant industries change slightly [51][52] PVC - PVC is in a low - level oscillatory state. The price is at a historical low, and some devices may reduce production due to losses, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [60][61] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is in a narrow adjustment with a weak trend, and low - sulfur fuel oil continues to weaken at night. The spot prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil decline, and the spread narrows slightly [63] Freight Index (European Line) - The freight index (European line) is in an oscillatory market. The futures price rebounds with reduced positions. The spot freight rate changes, and the future trend is affected by factors such as shipping company price increases and market supply - demand [65][74] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - Staple fiber and bottle chips are cost - supported, with short - term oscillation and medium - term pressure. The futures prices are weak, and the spot prices are stable. The sales rate of staple fiber decreases [77][78] Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is in a low - level oscillatory state. The spot price is stable, and the cost increases while the profit decreases. The market demand is weak [80][81] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is mainly in a short - term oscillatory state. The port inventory increases, and the price changes slightly. The short - term market is under pressure, but there are supply contraction expectations in the future [84][85]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 04 日 铝：偏强运行 氧化铝：继续承压 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21940 | 30 | 485 | 280 | 1205 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22010 | - | - | ー | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2897 | 34 | 33 | 19 | 275 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 161612 | -16380 | -11276 | -47636 | 78532 | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 249248 | -9192 | -9808 | -62021 | 38262 | | | LME铝3M成交 ...