Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. Affected by the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation overall [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, the improvement of China-Canada trade relations has increased the long - term supply pressure, causing rapeseed oil to decline in oscillation and increasing short - term volatility [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 8902 yuan/ton, down 161 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was -21 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was -66 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 253,596 lots, down 16,032 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract was 1,013,517 lots, up 95,878 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were -20,757 lots, down 14,342 lots; for rapeseed meal were -272,749 lots, down 31,903 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,942 sheets, down 200 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 637.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,956.25 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,636.99 yuan/ton, up 46.97 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 4.04, up 0.09 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 787 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 820 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast for the year was 13.446 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - The total import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the total import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.24% (17.23% previously), down 0.6%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.23% (17.21% previously), down 0.6% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 16.38%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 13.06%, up 0.24% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 18.03%, up 2.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 14.77%, up 1.07% [2]. Industry News - On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.8%, hitting a six - week high, due to a new trade agreement between Canada and China including a reduction in rapeseed tariffs [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report showed that the U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season was 4.262 billion bushels, higher than last month's forecast and market expectations. The USDA also raised Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts, which was bearish for the market [2]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest on record, which was positive for U.S. soybeans [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the steel market showed a stable and slightly stronger trend, with a divergence between the supply - demand fundamentals and macro sentiment. Despite the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market and the cooling of market risk appetite, the rebar industry remained relatively stable with a slight inventory reduction, providing bottom support for prices. - In the future, building material demand will face seasonal weakening pressure, but steel enterprise production will continue to recover. Rebar will start seasonal inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the raw material replenishment demand of steel enterprises before the Spring Festival will continue to support the prices of furnace materials, and the cost side will still have support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The steel market was stable and slightly stronger this week. The rebar industry was relatively stable with minor inventory reduction, despite the volatile commodity market and cooling risk appetite. - In the future, building material demand will weaken seasonally, steel production will recover, rebar will accumulate inventory seasonally, and cost support from raw material replenishment will keep prices fluctuating. [2] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal production was 228.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.49 million tons (-0.65%). - Rebar mill inventory was 142.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.27 million tons (-3.56%). - Rebar social inventory was 295.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.23 million tons (1.80%). - Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 76.53 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.79 million tons (-1.02%). - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 285.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.01 million tons (-1.72%). [4] Futures Market Review - There are figures related to the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (volume/position). [7][10] Spot Market Review - There are figures related to rebar prices in East China (Shanghai), hot - rolled 4.75 spot prices (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis. [15][16] Fundamental Data - There are figures related to the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar and hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and rebar and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis. [18][22][25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR Futures Data - BR主力合约收盘价: 1月15日为12190元，日度变化 -60元，周度变化175元 [4] - 持仓量: 1月15日为99183手，日度变化 -1393手，周度变化72844手 [4] - 需求量: 1月15日为150035，日度变化 -26996，周度变化48814 [4] - 成交量: 12月17日为181436 [4] - 仓单数量: 1月15日为26330，日度变化0，周度变化2000 [4] - 虚实比: 1月15日为18.83，日度变化0，周度变化13 [4] - 顺丁基差: 1月15日为 -190，日度变化60，周度变化 -125 [4] - 丁苯基差: 1月15日为110，日度变化110，周度变化 -75 [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Data - 02 - 03月差: 1月15日为 -60，日度变化 -30，周度变化 -10 [4] - 03 - 04月差: 1月15日为 -35，日度变化 -10，周度变化 -12 [4] - RU - BR价差: 1月15日为3805，日度变化 -105，周度变化 -210 [4] - NR - BR价差: 1月15日为660，日度变化 -105，周度变化 -275 [4] Spot Price Data - 山东市场价: 1月15日为12000元，日度变化0，周度变化50元 [4] - 传化市场价: 1月15日为11950元，日度变化0，周度变化50元 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价: 1月15日为12100元，日度变化0，周度变化200元 [4] - CFR东北亚: 1月15日为1450美元，日度变化0，周度变化35美元 [4] - CFR东南亚: 1月15日为1675美元，日度变化0，周度变化40美元 [4] Profit Data - 现货加工利润: 1月15日为 -273元，日度变化 -77元，周度变化 -384元 [4] - 进口利润: 1月15日为75元，日度变化7元，周度变化 -211元 [4] - 出口利润: 1月15日为603元，日度变化 -7元，周度变化222元 [4] Other Spot and Profit Data - 山东市场价（另一品种）: 1月15日为9875元，日度变化75元，周度变化425元 [4] - 江苏市场价: 1月15日为9650元，日度变化0，周度变化400元 [4] - 扬子出厂价: 1月15日为9550元，日度变化0，周度变化450元 [4] - CFR中国: 1月13日为1140美元 [4] - 乙烯裂解利润: 1月15日为 -33元，日度变化3元，周度变化9元 [4] - 碳四抽提利润: 1月14日为2648元 [4] - 进口利润（另一品种）: 1月13日为190元 [4] - 出口利润（另一品种）: 1月15日为 -1188元，日度变化240元，周度变化1493元 [4] - 丁苯生产利润: 1月15日为663元，日度变化 -25元，周度变化 -225元 [4] - ABS生产利润: 1月15日为 -871元，日度变化0，周度变化 -28元 [4] - SBS生产利润: 1月15日为 -215元，日度变化 -30元，周度变化 -220元 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market is currently in a state of weakening trends, with the spot prices of softwood pulp following the decline of the futures market. The hardwood pulp market has also shown signs of weakness, and the downstream demand is sluggish, intensifying the bearish sentiment [1][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of the pulp main contract in both the day and night sessions decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume and open interest increased, while the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The net position of the top 20 members increased [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of silver star - futures main contract decreased, while the basis of goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) increased. The month - spread of SP03 - SP05 also increased [3] - **Spot Market**: Different pulp varieties have different prices. For example, the domestic price of northern softwood pulp is 5700 yuan/ton, and the international price of silver star is 710 US dollars/ton [3] Industry News - Last week, the decline in the futures market led to a decline in the spot price of softwood pulp. The hardwood pulp market also showed signs of weakness. The downstream demand is weak, with low purchasing willingness, and the bearish sentiment is intensifying. Attention should be paid to whether the futures market can stop falling and stabilize, whether the low - price rumors in the hardwood pulp market will become a general price - reduction behavior, and whether there are changes in the downstream's willingness to replenish stocks at low prices [4] Paper Product Market - The mainstream price of 70g natural white offset paper is 4450 yuan/ton, and the average price of 70g high - white offset paper is 4750 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous working day. Factory production has not increased, and the market supply is abundant. The high pulp cost squeezes the industry's profit, and paper mills are determined to maintain prices. The market demand from consumers is weak, and it is difficult to effectively transmit the price downstream. Traders generally adopt a fast - turnover strategy, and there are price concessions in regional transactions. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and pulp price changes [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows a shockingly weak trend, with prices and trading volumes generally declining. The tire industry had a restorative growth in production capacity utilization in the first half of January, but there are issues such as flat shipments and rising inventory, especially significant inventory pressure on all - steel tires [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily and night - session closing prices of the rubber main contract decreased, with the daily - session closing price dropping from 15,995 yuan/ton to 15,835 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price dropping from 15,950 yuan/ton to 15,750 yuan/ton. Trading volume decreased by 17,091 hands, and the open interest of the 05 contract decreased by 7,441 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 2,800 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,563 hands [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract increased by 60, and the basis of mixed - futures main contract increased by 90. The monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 remained unchanged [1] - **Spot Market**: The external quotes of various rubber varieties decreased, such as RSS3 dropping from 2,170 dollars/ton to 2,160 dollars/ton. The prices of substitutes like Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene also decreased. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market generally declined [1] 2. Industry News - In the first half of January, the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate had a restorative growth. The production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2][3] - The tire industry's shipments are flat, and inventory is rising. As of January 15, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 47.92 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 46.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 days. All - steel tires are under greater inventory pressure [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of LPG is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. After the rapid increase in the spot price of propylene, the upward driving force has weakened [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Content by Category 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For LPG (PG), on January 26th, the 2602 contract had a closing price of 4,202 with a daily decline of 2.12% and a night - session closing price of 4,217 with a 0.36% increase; the 2603 contract had a closing price of 4,137 with a 2.27% decline and a night - session closing price of 4,147 with a 0.24% increase; the 2604 contract had a closing price of 4,379 with a 1.55% decline and a night - session closing price of 4,397 with a 0.41% increase. For propylene (PL), the 2602 contract had a closing price of 5,953 with a 1.20% decline and a night - session closing price of 5,981 with a 0.47% increase; the 2603 contract had a closing price of 6,050 with a 1.18% decline and a night - session closing price of 6,084 with a 0.56% increase; the 2604 contract had a closing price of 6,089 with a 1.14% decline and a night - session closing price of 6,124 with a 0.57% increase [1]. - **Spot Market**: For LPG, the prices of Shandong civil, East China civil, South China civil were 4,440, 4,523, 5,035 respectively, with changes of 0, - 20, - 10 compared to the previous day; the prices of East China imported, South China imported were 4,933, 5,110 respectively, with changes of 23, - 25. For propylene, the prices in Shandong and East China were 6,145, 6,325 respectively, with changes of 35, 0 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up Rate**: As of January 16, 2026, the PDH start - up rate was 73.07%, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the previous week; the alkylation start - up rate was 37.07%, unchanged; the MTBE start - up rate was 67.57%, unchanged [1]. - **LPG Shipment Volume**: On January 18, 2026, the global LPG shipment volume from the US was 19.6 tons, an increase of 9.6 tons compared to the previous day; the shipment volume to Asia was 9.2 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons. The global LPG shipment volume from the Middle East was 7.2 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons; the shipment volume to Asia was 7.2 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the interval [-2, 2], with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On January 16, 2026, the February CP paper - cargo price of propane was 527 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the price of butane was 515 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 509 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton [6]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans. For example, the PDH phase II of Jinneng Technology Co., Ltd. will be under maintenance from January 13, 2026, to early February 2026; the PDH phase II of Wanhua Chemical (Penglai) Co., Ltd. started maintenance on January 14, 2026, with the end time to be determined [7]. - There are also domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans. For example, Rizhao (Zhonghai) will have the whole - plant maintenance starting from January 3, 2025, with the end time to be determined; Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. will have the whole - plant maintenance from December 2025 to the end of February 2026 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and fundamental data of various energy and chemical products on January 19, 2026, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, etc. Each product has a specific trend judgment, such as "oscillating weakly", "high - level oscillation", etc. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - Trend: Oscillating weakly [2][4] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 17,091 lots. The spot - futures basis and the difference between the mixed rubber and the futures main contract increased [4] - Industry news: In the first half of January, the tire industry's start - up rate increased, with semi - steel tires more significantly improved. However, the tire industry's shipment was dull, and inventory increased, especially for all - steel tires [5][6] Synthetic Rubber - Trend: High - level oscillation [2][7] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 13,086 lots. The basis increased by 275 [7] - Industry news: The inventory of butadiene in East China ports and domestic butadiene rubber increased. In the short term, butadiene rubber is in a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term fundamentals of butadiene are slightly bullish [8][9] LLDPE - Trend: The low production of standard products continues, and spot trading weakens [2][10] - Fundamental data: The closing price of L2605 decreased by 1.33%, and the 05 contract basis increased from - 135 to - 95 [10] - Market analysis: The upstream inventory transfer is smooth, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. The raw material price is strong, and the ethylene monomer link is weak. The medium - term supply and demand pressure still exists [10][11] PP - Trend: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and PP cost support is relatively strong [2][13] - Fundamental data: The closing price of PP2605 decreased by 1.46%, and the 05 contract basis increased from - 172 to - 146 [13] - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand game of existing stocks intensifies. The demand side is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [13][14] Caustic Soda - Trend: Near - term pressure continues [2][16] - Fundamental data: The price of the 03 - contract futures is 2006 yuan/ton, and the basis is 57 [16] - Market analysis: The cost and supply - demand of caustic soda have collapsed, and the near - term pressure is high. The far - term contracts need to be cautious about short - selling [16][17] Pulp - Trend: Oscillating weakly [2][20] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the pulp main contract decreased by 74 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 145,287 lots [22] - Industry news: The decline in the futures market has affected the spot price, and the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the futures market's stop - falling and the downstream's replenishment willingness [23] Glass - Trend: The original sheet price is stable [2][25] - Fundamental data: The closing price of FG605 increased by 1.29%, and the 05 contract basis decreased from - 36 to - 53 [26] - Market analysis: The supply - side pressure is not large, the downstream demand is weak, and export orders support the rigid demand [26] Methanol - Trend: Oscillating [2][28] - Fundamental data: The closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 34 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 295,829 lots [29] - Market analysis: The methanol market is weak in the short term, and the port inventory is significantly reduced. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upside and downside space [31][32] Urea - Trend: Oscillating and consolidating [2][33] - Fundamental data: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 12,272 lots [34] - Industry news: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly. In the short term, the price may回调 slightly, but the medium - term is still bullish [35][36] Styrene - Trend: Short - term oscillation [2][37] - Fundamental data: The price of styrene 2602 increased by 75, and the non - integrated profit increased by 61 [37] - Market news: The short - term export of styrene exceeds expectations, and the downstream replenishment cycle has started. The short - term is in high - level oscillation [38] Soda Ash - Trend: The spot market has little change [2][39] - Fundamental data: The closing price of SA2605 decreased by 0.75%, and the 05 contract basis is 8 [40] - Market news: The domestic soda ash market is stable with slight oscillations, the production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishes inventory at low prices. The short - term lacks substantial support [40] LPG and Propylene - Trend: Short - term supply of LPG is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; the upward driver of propylene weakens after the spot price rises rapidly [2][43] - Fundamental data: The closing prices of LPG and propylene futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also have corresponding changes [43] - Market news: The 2 - month CP paper cargo price of propane decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [48][49] PVC - Trend: Weakly oscillating [2][53] - Fundamental data: The 05 - contract futures price is 4803 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 223 [51] - Market analysis: The PVC market has a high - production, high - inventory structure, and the short - term supply and demand improvement is limited. The short - term做空 of chlor - alkali profit is the core logic [51][52] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Trend: Fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the upward trend pauses; low - sulfur fuel oil rebounds slightly at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [2][54] - Fundamental data: The closing prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also change slightly [54] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Trend: Weakly oscillating [2][56] - Fundamental data: The closing price of EC2602 increased by 0.50%, and the trading volume is 2,673 [56] - Market news: The freight rates of European and US - West routes have increased, and the future shipping schedule may be dynamically adjusted [56][63] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Trend: Short - fiber is in a short - term oscillation market, and the processing fee runs at a low level; bottle chip is in a short - term oscillation market [2][69] - Fundamental data: The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also decrease [69] - Market news: The short - fiber futures oscillate at a low level, and the spot price is lowered. The bottle - chip factory lowers the price, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable [69][70] Offset Printing Paper - Trend: Close short positions opportunistically [2][72] - Fundamental data: The prices in the spot market are stable, and the futures prices decline. The basis in the Shandong and Guangdong markets increases [72] - Industry news: The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the production is basically stable, and the new orders are limited [73][75] Pure Benzene - Trend: Short - term oscillation [2][77] - Fundamental data: The prices of pure benzene futures contracts increase slightly, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increases [77] - News: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu and Chinese ports increases, and the spot price of pure benzene in Shandong and East China decreases [78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Tin prices broke through significantly at high levels and then fell sharply. On January 16, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 413,500 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis. - In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic tin ore production was 61,800 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, and domestic tin ore supply remained stable. Myanmar's repeated progress in mine resumption affected the price range, and Indonesia's exports decreased in December. - In November, the demand growth of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained strong, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging sectors will maintain resilience, and the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units in 2025, reaching a new high and ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The domestic economy is resilient, and the prosperity of the new energy and semiconductor industries is rising. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest rate cuts in the later period. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances. - LME inventories increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventories increased significantly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The mining end situation is volatile. High - price expectations suppress demand and stimulate supply. After the futures price was significantly pulled up by funds and then fell sharply, the industry association called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and the exchange introduced cooling measures. In terms of operation, reduce the holdings of long positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For those who bought put options, they can reduce their positions after the market stabilizes. Later, focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification of consumption data. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **View**: The impact factors such as output, downstream demand, inventory, imports and exports, market sentiment, cost - profit, and macro environment are all rated as neutral [15]. - **Strategy**: Reduce the holdings of long positions, with the weekly reference support level raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For put option buyers, reduce positions after the market stabilizes. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's exports, and consumption data [14]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3.3. Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than the mention of SHFE and LME tin futures - spot prices and basis charts [21]. 3.4. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, SHFE tin inventory was 9,526 tons, with a significant week - on - week increase. - As of January 14, 2026, LME total tin inventory was 5,925 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. - As of January 9, 2026, refined tin social inventory was 8,076 tons, with a slight week - on - week decrease [33][37]. 3.5. Cost - Profit As of January 15, 2026, the processing fee of Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 3.6. Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In October 2025, domestic tin ore production was 5,236.8 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][52]. 3.7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; China's electronic computer production was 29.028 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. - In December 2025, China's PVC production was 2.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; in November 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 142.35 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; China's refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. - In November 2025, China's washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; China's color television production was 17.449 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; China's integrated circuit production was 43.9 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [59][64][69][74][78]. 3.8. Imports and Exports - In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [82]. 3.9. Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [85]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The SHFE fuel oil is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term trend. After the technical breakthrough, the upward space is opened, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2600 yuan/ton integer mark. The trend of crude oil prices remains a key influencing factor, and if it can stay above $65 per barrel, it will further boost the confidence of the fuel oil market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 14, 2026, the opening price of the SHFE fuel oil main contract (FU.SHF) was 2496 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2599 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2492 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2586 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 6.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume on that day significantly increased to 1098156 lots, and the open interest was 244122 lots. The price showed a strong upward trend, and the closing price was close to the daily high, indicating that the bulls had an obvious advantage [2]. 3.2现货市场 - On January 14, 2026, the market price of fuel oil (domestic blended 180CST) in South China was 5008 yuan/ton, the market price of fuel oil (domestic 250) in East China was 4750 yuan/ton, and the market price of fuel oil (residual oil) in Northeast China was 3600 yuan/ton, with no obvious change from the previous day. The closing price of the fuel oil main contract on that day was 2586 yuan/ton, and the futures price was at a significant discount to the spot price, with a positive basis, reflecting a market structure where the current fuel oil spot market supply is tight and the futures market has a relatively loose expectation of future supply [4][5]. 3.3影响因素 - **产业资讯**: On the supply side, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries decreased, and the overall supply narrowed. On the demand side, there was a certain amount of inventory - building operations in the middle and lower reaches, and refinery inventories were running at a low level, supporting price increases. In addition, the ongoing tense situation in Iran and market concerns about possible reductions in crude oil exports further boosted the market's bullish sentiment [6]. - **技术分析**: The technical pattern in the past five trading days showed that the SHFE fuel oil price was in an oscillating upward trend. From January 8 to January 13, the price fluctuated in the range of 2418 - 2533 yuan/ton. On January 14, there was a breakthrough increase, with a single - day increase of 6.07%, forming a large positive line pattern, and the trading volume increased simultaneously, indicating strong upward momentum. The price successfully broke through the previous high, and the technical side showed obvious strong characteristics, confirming a short - term upward trend [7].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: January 13, 2026 [1] - **Report Cycle**: Daily - **Research Variety**: Soybean Meal - **Researcher**: Chen Bo (Qualification No.: F03138462; Investment Consultation Certificate No.: Z0022938) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to the bearish USDA report and high inventory of imported soybeans, while the domestic soybean meal inventory remains high and the overall consumption has not improved significantly. Technically, the price has fallen below the lower edge of the recent trading range, indicating a clear bearish pattern. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to the impact of subsequent imported soybean auctions and South American weather changes on market sentiment. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 13, 2026, the opening price of the DCE soybean meal main contract (M.DCE) was 2,799 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,761 yuan/ton, a 0.9% decline from the previous trading day. The highest price was 2,805 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2,756 yuan/ton, the daily trading volume was 1,180,639 lots, and the open interest was 2,258,105 lots. [2] 3.2现货市场 - On January 13, 2026, the spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 2,761 yuan/ton, with a basis of 439 yuan/ton. The spot market was strong while the futures market was weak. [5] 3.3影响因素 3.3.1产业资讯 - International market: The USDA January supply and demand report was bearish. The US soybean production reached 4.262 billion bushels, higher than the December estimate, and the Brazilian soybean production in 2025/26 was raised to 178 million tons. The CBOT soybean March contract closed down at 1,050 cents/bushel. [6] - Supply and demand fundamentals: In the first week of 2026, the imported soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons, an increase of 558,100 tons or 8.53% from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons, an increase of 2,600 tons or 0.22% from the previous week, both at relatively high levels, indicating supply pressure. [6] - Market transactions: On January 12, the total soybean meal transactions of major oil mills in China were 1.1593 million tons, an increase of 675,100 tons from the previous trading day, with the forward basis transactions accounting for 93%, concentrated in May - July 2026. [6] - Cost side: On January 13, the arrival cost of imported soybeans was 3,848.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43.58 yuan/ton or 1.12% from the previous workday, weakening the cost support. [6] 3.3.2技术分析 - In the past five trading days, the soybean meal main contract showed a downward - oscillating trend. From January 7 to January 13, the price fluctuated in the range of 2,756 - 2,827 yuan/ton, showing an "M" - shaped pattern overall. The price rose 1.74% on January 7, then fell for two consecutive days, rebounded slightly by 0.14% on January 12, and fell again by 0.90% on January 13, indicating that the bearish force was dominant. [6] 3.4行情展望 - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to imported soybean auctions and South American weather changes. [9]