Core Viewpoint - Thailand's economy is facing a more severe recession than expected, with the central bank warning of a potential negative growth in GDP for the third quarter, marking the first quarterly contraction since the end of 2022 [1] Economic Forecast - The Bank of Thailand has revised its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter from 0.5% to -0.5% [1] - The central bank anticipates a GDP growth rate of 0.5% by the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] Contributing Factors - The economic contraction is attributed to multiple factors, including temporary factory closures and the impact of tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [1] - Manufacturers in Thailand have reported facing dual pressures from U.S. tariffs and a relatively high Thai baht exchange rate [1]

Core Insights - The resilience of the restaurant industry is highlighted as consumers, particularly high-income groups, continue to spend on dining out despite economic pressures [2][3][6] - Sales in the restaurant sector have shown a growth of 6.5% over the past year, surpassing the previous year's growth of 4.3% [2] - The strong performance of the stock market has significantly boosted consumer spending, especially among high-income households [3][6] Sales Performance - Restaurant sales are thriving due to the overall growth of the U.S. economy, which has kept unemployment rates low [2] - High-income Americans are the primary drivers of growth in the restaurant sector, with online reservation platform OpenTable reporting a 12% increase in bookings compared to last year [6] - Fast-food chains are attracting price-sensitive consumers through new promotional offers, as seen with Domino's Pizza's $9.99 special [6] Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumers are adopting new habits to manage expenses, such as opting for smaller portions and sharing meals [8] - The Federal Reserve's economic survey indicates that diners are cutting back on desserts and alcoholic beverages to save money [8] - The restaurant industry has seen minimal job growth, with only 13,000 new positions added in the first eight months of the year, compared to 40,000 in the same period of 2024 [8] Future Trends and Risks - Low-income families are under increased pressure due to rising inflation, leading them to reduce visits to fast-food restaurants [9] - Major chains like McDonald's are experiencing a decline in foot traffic from low-income customers, prompting them to enhance promotional efforts [9] - A potential stock market downturn poses a significant threat, as high-income households, which account for nearly 60% of restaurant spending, may reduce their dining out frequency [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The US government shutdown and Sino-US frictions before the APEC meeting have led to a RISK OFF trading mode, negatively impacting overvalued and crowded AI technology assets. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan and the Fourth Plenary Session in China next week may bring unexpected positive effects; otherwise, the market may face further adjustment risks [4]. - Domestically, economic data remains weak, especially in consumption and real estate. Industrial enterprise capacity utilization has declined marginally, indicating slow progress in anti-involution policies and ongoing efforts to reverse deflation. Leading companies in pro-cyclical industries are expected to have better profit prospects [4]. - Domestic liquidity is generally loose, but the central bank has tightened funds in the open market. Passive ETF funds and margin trading funds have continued to attract capital, while industrial capital has increased its reduction, and foreign capital has flowed out significantly recently. Credit impulses have started to decline from their peak, weakening the positive impact of market liquidity [4]. - After a short-term small adjustment, the valuations of various indices remain at relatively high historical levels. The equity-bond risk premiums at home and abroad are at historical lows, and broad-based indices have limited attractiveness to allocation funds, but there are still structural opportunities [4]. - Overall, the limited liquidity in the large-scale market makes it difficult to drive continuous growth. During the window of positive macro-policy implementation, the market will choose a direction, with funds shifting from the aggressive growth style to the cyclical style for year-end valuation switching. It is recommended to adopt a high-selling and low-buying strategy for stock index futures next week, selling short IC and IM index futures on rebounds and buying long IF and IH index futures on sharp declines [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Performance**: In the past week, the Dow Jones Index led the gains, while the Hang Seng Tech Index led the losses. The performance order was Dow Jones Index > FTSE Europe > FTSE Emerging Index > Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 > Nikkei 225 > Germany DAX > CSI 300 > CSI 500 > Hang Seng Tech Index [8]. - **Domestic Stock Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.99%, the ChiNext Index by 5.71%, and the Hang Seng Index by 3.97%, among others [9]. - **Industry Performance**: The banking sector led the gains, while the consumer services sector led the losses [12]. - **Futures Performance**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.47%, 0.63%, 0.9%, and 0.88% respectively, and the delivery discounts of the four major futures converged to par. The inter - period spread rates (between the current month and the next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.55%, - 0.67%, - 1.05%, and - 0.57% respectively, and the inter - period discounts significantly widened. The inter - period spread rates (between the next quarter and the current month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.66%, - 0.73%, - 1.27%, and - 0.58% respectively, and the forward discounts of each futures contract widened significantly [20]. 2. Fund Flow - **Margin Trading and Stabilization Funds**: Margin trading funds continued to flow in 15.42 billion yuan last week, reaching 2.46 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 0.08% to 2.63%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds decreased by 70.07 billion yuan to 3638.85 billion yuan last week, due to the market decline [23]. - **Industrial Capital**: In October, the cumulative equity financing was 13.56 billion yuan, with 1 company involved. Among them, IPO financing was 0.79 billion yuan, private placement was 12.77 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.8 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing decreased significantly. The market value of stock market unlockings last week was 78.4 billion yuan, an increase of 32.6 billion yuan from the previous week. The annualized reduction in October was 248.4 billion yuan, and the scale of reduction continued to increase marginally [26]. 3. Liquidity - **Monetary Injection**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired at 1021 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase injection of 67.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net monetary withdrawal of 347.9 billion yuan. The MLF had a net injection of 300 billion yuan in September, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral to loose but tightened marginally [28]. - **Monetary Demand**: Last week, the net monetary demand from national debt issuance was 16.63 billion yuan, and from local debt issuance was 18.09 billion yuan. The total net monetary demand from the bond market was 557.58 billion yuan. The debt financing demand of local governments and national debt decreased significantly, while that of enterprises increased marginally [31]. - **Fund Price**: DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 1.4bp, 3.8bp, and 0bp respectively to 1.41%, 1.36%, and 1.32%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 8.2bp, and the CD rate of joint - stock banks increased by 4.4bp to 1.67%. The overall fund price fluctuated at a low level and increased marginally [34]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year national bonds changed by - 1.6bp, - 1.4bp, and - 0.7bp respectively, and the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year national development bonds changed by - 4.6bp, - 2bp, and 0.3bp respectively. The yield term structure continued to flatten, the long - end yields declined slightly due to stock market adjustments and weak economic data, and the short - end yields were relatively strong due to liquidity tightening. The credit spread between national bonds and national development bonds narrowed at the long - end, and the expectation of broad credit cooled down [38]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of October 17, the US 10 - year Treasury yield changed by - 3.0bp to 4.02%, the inflation expectation changed by - 3.0bp to 2.27%, and the real interest rate remained unchanged at 1.75%. The Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrowed by 3.42bp to - 219.43bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.28% [40]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of October 16, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.129 million square meters, a seasonal increase of 0.483 million square meters from the previous week, but a 49.7% decrease compared to the same period in 2019. The second - hand housing sales rebounded seasonally, but the overall real estate market still showed a weak peak season. The market sales were supported by rigid demand at a low level, and more incremental policies were awaited to boost the recovery [43]. - **Service Industry Activity**: As of October 17, the average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.8% year - on - year to 81.44 million person - times, but increased by 24.8% compared to the same period in 2021. The Baidu congestion delay index of 100 cities rebounded slightly from the previous week, and the service industry economic activity tended to grow naturally and stably but cooled down marginally [47]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: The capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry stopped falling and rebounded. The capacity utilization rates of steel mills, asphalt, cement clinker enterprises, and coke enterprises changed by - 0.22%, 1.3%, - 2.87%, and - 0.94% respectively. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased by 0.13% from the previous week. Overall, the internal and external demand of the manufacturing industry cooled down, the capacity utilization rate decreased marginally, and the external demand was under short - term pressure due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions [51]. - **Goods Flow**: The goods flow and passenger flow remained at relatively high levels but declined marginally beyond the seasonal norm, indicating the pressure on the real economy. The transportation volume of highways and railways decreased beyond the seasonal norm, indicating a cooling of exports [56]. - **Imports and Exports**: In terms of exports, the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, the approaching expiration of the 90 - day exemption, and the end of the rush to export under tariff disturbances will increase the export pressure marginally in the future [58]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US economic data is strong. Although the US government shutdown has affected the release of CPI and non - farm payroll reports, the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in the remaining part of 2025, with a total reduction of about 50bp. The probability of an interest rate cut in October is as high as 99%, and the probability in December has risen to 94%. The expected end - of - year interest rate is between 3.5% - 3.75% [61]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The equity - bond risk premium was 2.68%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous week, at the 48.3% quantile, below the central level. The foreign capital risk premium index was 3.62%, a rebound of 0.08% from the previous week, at the 18.5% quantile, indicating a low level of attractiveness to foreign capital. The valuations of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 90.1%, 83.9%, 93.6%, and 79.7% quantiles respectively in the past five years, at relatively high levels. The quantiles changed by 3.3%, - 3.1%, - 5%, and - 4.1% respectively from the previous week, indicating that the attractiveness of the cyclical style decreased marginally, while that of the growth style index increased marginally [64][69]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market in October is in a period of seasonal oscillatory rise and structural differentiation, with the cyclical style dominant and the growth style generally oscillating at a high level. The stock market in October generally has a good profit - making effect, and the style is easy to switch. Considering the high valuation of the growth style and the relatively weak real economy, but with positive macro - policy expectations in October, it is recommended to buy long stock index futures on sharp declines this week and bet on the oversold rebound opportunities of IC and IM [72].

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of gold price surges, highlighting that gold has experienced three significant rallies, with the first two resulting in substantial losses for investors due to high-level entrapment [1][3] - The first major surge occurred from 1978 to 1980, where gold prices increased from $244 to $850, marking a 248% rise amid geopolitical tensions and domestic economic issues in the U.S. [3] - The second surge took place from 2008 to 2011, with gold rising from approximately $700 to $1905, a 171% increase, driven by the global financial crisis and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies [3] Group 2 - Recent warnings from financial institutions indicate that nearly half of U.S. states are facing economic recession, with Moody's reporting that over 22 states are in economic contraction [6] - The economic downturn is exacerbated in Washington D.C. due to significant federal layoffs and budget cuts, with the recession spreading across the entire U.S. [6] - The ongoing global geopolitical instability and the trend of de-dollarization have led to increased demand for gold, as countries seek to build independent banking systems and accumulate gold reserves [6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that gold has entered a new phase of significant price increases even before the U.S. economy officially enters a recession, with expectations of gold prices potentially exceeding $4500 in the next three months [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent changes in Trump's stance on tariffs, particularly regarding the rabbit, indicating a lack of implementation of these tariffs [1] - It highlights the financial struggles of U.S. soldiers, who are reportedly taking loans to support their livelihoods, reflecting broader economic issues in the U.S. [1] - The article notes that gold prices have reached a historic high of $30 trillion, significantly outpacing Bitcoin's market cap of $2.1 trillion, with gold prices increasing by 58% over the past year compared to Bitcoin's 56% [1] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market has seen a slight rebound since October 11, with Bitcoin nearing the $100,000 mark, but the recovery is described as weak [3] - Key support levels for Bitcoin are identified at $98,000 and $100,000, while resistance is noted at $108,000 [3] - Ethereum has not declined as sharply as Bitcoin, with significant levels to watch being $3,600 and $3,550 for support, and $3,800 for resistance [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the restart of the trade war, the economic recession restricts the consumer demand for gold and silver jewelry; the demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization; when the US restarts interest rate cuts, the medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals; a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts has been tracked [2][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - The US government plans to lay off more than 4,000 people, and the military may face unpaid leave due to the government shutdown. There are various international events such as border conflicts between Pakistan and Afghanistan, potential supply of "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine, and the situation in the Middle East. Domestically, there are issues like government cabinet reshuffles and political events. Economically, the Fed has different stances on interest rate cuts, and the government "shutdown" continues with the Senate's repeated rejections of the temporary appropriation bill. The gold market is considered unsaturated with long - term macro - support factors remaining [8] Gold Market Tracking - COMEX gold futures and options: The latest long - position management fund holding is 122,450 contracts, and the short - position is 35,978 contracts. The SPDR gold ETF holds 862 tons, and iShares holds 402 tons. The Shanghai gold warehouse receipt is 3 tons, and the external - market inventory is 617 ounces. There are also changes in positions over different time periods [9] Silver Market Tracking - COMEX silver futures and options: The latest long - position management fund holding is 44,277 contracts, and the short - position is 27,801 contracts. The SLV silver ETF holds 13,802 tons. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons, and the external - market inventory is 8,398 tons. There are also changes in positions over different time periods [14] Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - There are data on the import gold and silver hedging profit margins over a period from 2024/7/15 to 2025/9/29 [21] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Trends Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - There are data on the non - commercial net long positions and total positions of the ICE dollar index futures and options over a period from 2025 - 02 - 25 to 2025 - 09 - 23 [23] US Treasury Bond Futures Position Tracking - There are data on the non - commercial net long positions of CBOT 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year US Treasury bond futures and options, as well as the total positions of US Treasury bond futures over different time periods [26][27] US Inflation Expectation - There are data on the US inflation expectations (break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year) from 2025 - 08 - 19 to 2025 - 10 - 16 [30] US Real Interest Rate - There are data on the US Treasury real yield curves for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year on a monthly basis from 2005 - 11 to 2025 - 05 [32] US Interest Rate Term Structure - There are data on US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) [35] US and Major Non - US Countries' 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yield Spreads - There are data on the yield spreads between the US 2 - year Treasury bond and those of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany from 2025 - 08 - 19 to 2025 - 10 - 16 [38]

Gold Market - Investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven due to escalating tariff issues and the U.S. government shutdown, with interest rate cut expectations driving gold prices up [1] - The recent credit crisis among U.S. regional banks has rekindled fears reminiscent of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse, leading to increased market bets on credit recession [1] - Macro data indicates a weakening economic outlook, heightening recession risks, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut at the end of October is a response to financial system stress rather than a sign of economic soft landing [1] - Credit recession is anticipated to trigger economic downturns, potentially leading to a financial crisis, which has contributed to rising gold prices [1] - Technically, gold prices are showing strong upward momentum, with support at $4,300 and resistance at $4,420 [1] Oil Market - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.524 million barrels last week, significantly exceeding market expectations of a 288,000 barrel increase, indicating weak consumption in the U.S. oil market [2] - Oil prices are expected to test year-to-date lows due to the ongoing stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the impact of tariff wars [3] - Technically, oil prices are on a downward trend, with support at $55.20 and resistance at $57.70 [3] Dollar Index - The recent failures of two U.S. regional banks have heightened market fears, leading to significant sell-offs and a continued decline in the dollar [4] - The eurozone is expected to experience a slow economic recovery, supported by loose monetary policy and gradual fiscal measures, with potential for euro appreciation [4] - Technically, the dollar index has broken below 98.50, with support at 97.70 and resistance at 98.30 [4] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index is experiencing accelerated declines, with a high probability of breaking below the 24,000 mark [6] - Technically, the index is trading below the 120-day moving average, indicating a continuation of the downward trend, with support at 23,800 and resistance at 24,500 [6] Copper Market - Copper prices are consolidating within the range of $4.75 to $5.11, with a downward trend continuing [7] - Technically, the market is operating below the 60/120-day moving averages, with support at $4.77 and resistance at $4.95 [7]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has lasted for 16 days, marking the longest shutdown in nearly seven years, exposing deep political polarization and leading to a systemic crisis affecting various sectors of the economy [1][15] - The shutdown has resulted in significant economic losses, estimated at $1 billion per day, totaling $16 billion over the 16 days, with severe impacts on tourism, small businesses, and federal spending [5][15] Economic Impact - The shutdown has caused daily economic losses of approximately $1 billion, with tourism alone losing $100 million per day and 42,000 small businesses facing financing delays due to loan guarantees being stalled [5] - Federal spending delays amount to $12 billion, affecting essential programs such as agricultural subsidies and housing assistance [5] Agricultural Sector - The agricultural industry is facing severe disruptions, with farmers unable to access loans, leading to potential business closures; for instance, 30% of farms in Arkansas are at risk of closure due to halted disaster aid applications [5][9] Financial Markets - Financial markets are experiencing volatility due to delayed economic data releases, which have affected Federal Reserve policy expectations, with interest rate cut probabilities fluctuating significantly [7] - The uncertainty surrounding the shutdown has led to increased spreads in emerging market dollar bonds, raising financing costs for vulnerable economies like Argentina and Turkey [11] Public Services - The shutdown has led to significant disruptions in public services, including delays in cancer drug approvals and clinical trials, as well as increased flight delays due to staffing shortages in the aviation sector [9] - The Federal Aviation Administration has seen 11,000 employees on unpaid leave, resulting in a 23% increase in flight delays [9] Political Context - The budget standoff is tied to ideological battles between the two parties, with Republicans pushing for cuts to social programs and increased defense spending, while Democrats advocate for tax increases on the wealthy to maintain social services [3] - The political deadlock has raised concerns about the potential for future shutdowns, with historical data indicating that shutdowns have occurred approximately every two years since 1976 [13]

新华财经北京10月16日电美国联邦政府关门的第十五天，市场继续关注中美经贸博弈，美债收益率早盘 延续跌势，午后反弹收涨。 截至周三（10月15日）纽市尾盘，10年期美债收益率涨近1个基点，报4.04%，盘中再度跌破4%，近一 周下跌了10个基点。2年期美债收益率涨2个基点，报3.50%，盘中低点触及3.46%，创三年新低。 凯投宏观副首席市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼表示，美国国债收益率可能即将触底。他指出，近期美 债收益率因贸易关系再度紧张而下滑，但"除非贸易战真正重新爆发，否则我们认为短期内美债收益率 不会进一步大幅下跌"。戈尔特曼解释说，目前美债收益率处于相对低位的主要原因在于，尽管市场对 经济衰退的担忧有所缓解，但"近几个月来，美联储的政策前景已明显转向利率下调的方向"。他补充 说，美联储主席鲍威尔周二在讲话中也明确表示，仍计划继续降息。 美联储新任理事米兰15日表示，美国经济面临的"下行风险较一周前更高"，货币政策应对此作出相应调 整。如果美联储未能迅速下调利率，可能会对经济造成损害。 米兰强调，官员们可以迅速实施一系列较大幅度的降息，以尽快回到中性水平，而不是在全年中缓慢推 进。"我的观点是，我们可 ...

Group 1 - Global central bank leaders will discuss stock market bubbles and potential crash risks at the IMF and World Bank's autumn meeting, with IMF President Georgieva warning that current asset valuations are nearing levels seen during the internet bubble 25 years ago, indicating that a significant market correction could impact the global economy [1][2] - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 11th day, with President Trump instructing Defense Secretary Esper to use all available funds to ensure military personnel are paid during the shutdown, although he did not disclose the source of these funds [1][2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has narrowed the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair from 11 to 5, including current Fed governors and other prominent economic figures, with plans to further reduce the list before submitting it to President Trump [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has warned that U.S. job growth may have turned negative in recent months, with labor market weakness becoming a major concern for policy-making, and he is open to a 25 basis point rate cut in upcoming meetings [2] - The Michigan University survey indicates a slight decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index for October, dropping 0.1 to 55, which is a five-month low but still above market expectations, with consumers expecting a 4.6% inflation rate over the next year [2] - The UK Chamber of Commerce reports that business confidence remains low, with only 48% of entrepreneurs expecting revenue growth, and 25% have cut investments due to rising costs and economic uncertainty, urging against tax increases to stabilize the economy [2] Group 3 - Canada added 60,400 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 5,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 7.1%, indicating a notable recovery in the labor market [3] - Japan's Finance Minister has expressed concerns over the recent sharp decline of the yen against the dollar, labeling it as "one-sided and extreme volatility," and stated that the government will closely monitor excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market [3] - Moody's has warned that approximately 22 U.S. states are either in recession or on the brink of one, suggesting that if economic weakness spreads from smaller manufacturing states to larger states like California or New York, the U.S. economy could face an overall recession [3] Group 4 - International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.58% to $4,035.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increasing 0.76% to $47.52 per ounce [4] - International oil prices fell across the board, with U.S. crude oil main contract dropping 5.32% to $58.24 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract decreasing 4.8% to $62.09 per barrel [4] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 1.63 basis points to 3.572%, and the 10-year yield down 1.95 basis points to 4.117% [4]