美国4月对日本汽车及零部件加征25%关税，多数其他商品加征10%关税。6月初钢铁进口关税翻倍至 50%。汽车及零部件约占日本对美出口的1/3。根据日美7月底达成的贸易协议，日本对美出口的汽车及 其他商品关税将降至15%，但该税率的实施尚需时日。 凯投宏观亚太区主管马塞尔·蒂利安特在报告中指出，数据表明"美国加征关税开始产生实质影响"。鉴 于"日本出口结构严重偏向资本品"，他预测海外投资增长乏力也将冲击出口。路透社援引分析人士的话 表示，在出口额暴跌的同时，日本出口商的出货量相对稳定，但他们最终不得不将成本转嫁给美国消费 者，而这将进一步影响未来数月的销售。 日本对其他贸易伙伴的出口同样疲软。对中国出口下降3.5%，对欧盟出口下滑3.4%，对东南亚国家出 口减少2.9%。 今年4至6月日本经济年化环比增长1%，主要得益于出口的带动，但7月贸易数据公布后，不少媒体对日 本经济能否保持增长感到担忧。 【环球时报特约记者 李明 严格】日本财务省20日发布的7月份贸易统计数据显示，当月日本整体出口额 同比下降2.6%，降幅超出路透社经济学家调查预测的2.1%，是4年多来的最大降幅。其中对美出口额同 比减少10.1%，连 ...

Group 1 - Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline in over four years, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, and steel [1] - Despite the drop in export value, export volume increased by 1.2%, indicating that exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering prices [1] - Japan's trade deficit in July reached 117.5 billion yen, with imports decreasing by 7.5% to 9.48 trillion yen, driven by significant declines in crude oil, coal, and liquefied natural gas imports [1] Group 2 - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1% in July, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4%, although the volume of car exports only fell by 3.2% [1] - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese imported cars and parts starting in April, and increased steel tariffs to 50% in June, affecting approximately one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [1] - Toyota warned that U.S. tariffs could lead to a reduction in operating profit by 1.4 trillion yen [1] Group 3 - A trade agreement reached at the end of July is expected to reduce tariffs on cars and most goods to 15%, but implementation will take time [2] - Japan's economy showed unexpected resilience in the second quarter, which may support the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates later this year, although the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs will be a key consideration [2] - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its current policy stance in the upcoming September meeting, as the effects of tariffs on export volumes become more apparent [3]

Group 1 - Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline in over four years, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, and steel [1] - Despite the drop in export value, export volume increased by 1.2%, indicating that exporters are lowering prices to absorb the costs of U.S. tariffs [1] - Japan's trade deficit in July reached 117.5 billion yen, with imports decreasing by 7.5% to 9.48 trillion yen, driven by significant declines in crude oil, coal, and liquefied natural gas imports [1] Group 2 - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1% in July, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4% [1] - Japanese automakers are absorbing some of the tariff costs to maintain sales, as evidenced by a smaller decline of only 3.2% in the volume of car exports to the U.S. [1] - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese imported cars and parts starting in April, with steel tariffs increased to 50% in June, affecting approximately one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [1] Group 3 - The recent trade agreement reached at the end of July suggests that U.S. tariffs on automobiles and most goods may be reduced to 15%, but implementation will take time [2] - Economic analysts warn that Japan could face a recession depending on the extent of the tariff impacts [2] - The Bank of Japan's decision-making may become more cautious due to the ongoing decline in exports, despite the economy showing unexpected resilience in the second quarter [3] Group 4 - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its current policy stance during the upcoming policy meeting on September 19 [4] - Analysts note that the decline in Japan's auto exports is a clear sign of the tariff impacts, with Japanese goods losing price competitiveness in the U.S. market [4] - The timing of any potential tariff reductions remains uncertain, with significant negative impacts anticipated if no reductions occur [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is facing a critical juncture, with signs of a weakening job market and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][4] - Goldman Sachs highlights the challenge for investors to find assets that can benefit from anticipated rate cuts while providing protection against potential economic downturns [1][3] - The report indicates that as long as deep downside risks are avoided, the U.S. stock market can continue to "climb the wall of worry," but the risk of a market pullback is higher than usual due to already priced-in growth slowdown [1][4] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll report has significantly altered market dynamics, drawing attention to the "employment" aspect of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate [2][3] - Employment growth has sharply declined across multiple indicators, suggesting a labor market characterized by limited hiring and no large-scale layoffs [2][3] - Goldman Sachs warns that such downward revisions are typically indicative of cyclical turning points, urging investors to take these weak signals seriously [3] Group 3 - Following the July non-farm data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have shifted dramatically, with a high likelihood of a rate cut in September [4] - The market has fully priced in a September rate cut, with expectations for more than two cuts throughout the year [4] - If further signs of weakness in the job market emerge, the market may price in earlier and more substantial rate cuts, leading to steepening of the 2-year and 5-year U.S. Treasury yield curve [4] Group 4 - The decline in market implied volatility makes options betting on accelerated rate cuts an attractive "recession protection" tool [5]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's exports in July experienced a significant decline, marking the largest year-on-year drop in four years, primarily due to weakened exports to the United States, raising concerns about the country's economic growth prospects [1][3][4]. Export Performance - In July, Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of a 2.1% decline, and representing the largest drop since February 2021 [1][4]. - Exports to the U.S. saw a notable decrease of 10.1%, although this was an improvement from June's 11.4% drop [4][6]. - The automotive sector was particularly hard hit, with exports of cars and parts plummeting by 28.4% and 17.4%, respectively, further exacerbating the decline in overall export figures [3][4]. Trade Agreement Impact - A trade agreement reached on July 22 between Japan and the U.S. included a 15% tariff on certain goods, with automotive tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%. However, the impact of these tariffs will be reflected in August's data, while July's figures still show the ongoing pressure from tariffs [4][6]. Economic Growth Challenges - The decline in exports poses new challenges for Japan's economic growth, which had previously shown resilience with a GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2% year-on-year in Q2, driven by net exports [5][6]. - Continued export weakness raises concerns about Japan's ability to sustain economic expansion, especially as domestic consumption remains sluggish [6]. Monetary Policy Implications - The persistent decline in exports is expected to influence the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions, with market expectations leaning towards a cautious stance in the upcoming policy meeting on September 19 [6].

Core Insights - The current US economic growth shows signs of comprehensive slowdown, with a cooling labor market and weak inflation reinforcing market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [2][6][14] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will significantly impact the US dollar and US Treasury markets, with historical trends indicating that Treasury yields typically decline ahead of policy shifts [2][7][30] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global equity markets is structurally differentiated, primarily depending on the motivation behind the policy [2][8][30] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data from the US indicates a broad weakening, with key indicators falling below market expectations. Non-farm payrolls for July increased by only 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000, marking the lowest monthly increase since October 2024 [6][14] - The unemployment rate has been on the rise, reaching 4.2% in July, further confirming the cooling labor market. Inflation data also shows weakness, with July's CPI growth at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8% [14][20] Interest Rate and Currency Dynamics - US Treasury yields are expected to decline ahead of the Federal Reserve's official interest rate cut, driven by the forward-looking nature of the bond market. Short-term Treasuries (e.g., 2-year) are more sensitive to interest rate changes compared to long-term Treasuries (e.g., 10-year) [7][22][29] - The US dollar index typically weakens during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycles. For instance, during the 2001 rate cut cycle, the dollar index fell by 13.34%, while it has already decreased by 3.20% since the first cut in 2024 [30][33] Equity Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have historically led to varied impacts on global equity markets, largely influenced by the underlying economic conditions. Passive easing in response to recession often results in significant declines in equity markets, while preemptive cuts in resilient economic conditions can support equity valuations [8][30][34] - In the context of the 2024 preemptive rate cuts, corporate earnings remain relatively robust, which has helped to improve market risk appetite and support equity markets [8][34] Recent Asset Movements - Major US stock indices have recently shown gains, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 rising by 2.20%, 2.14%, and 2.03% respectively. The healthcare, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains [5][37] - In the commodities market, LME zinc, copper, and Brent crude oil have seen increases, while gold and rebar steel have declined [5][37]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose significantly in July, exceeding market expectations, indicating renewed inflationary pressures in the upstream supply chain [1][3] - Experts warn that the cost pressures from tariffs are accelerating down the supply chain, potentially leading to a wave of bankruptcies among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the U.S. [1][7] Group 1: PPI Data - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month in July, marking the largest rise since June 2022 [3] - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, significantly higher than June's 2.3% and the market expectation of 2.6%, representing the highest level since February of this year [3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - As of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of the tariff costs, while consumers covered 22%. If tariffs continue to rise, consumers are expected to bear 67% of the costs by October [5] - Current tariff policies may lead to a 1% decline in U.S. GDP and an increase in inflation by 1% to 1.5% [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The likelihood of the U.S. economy contracting for two consecutive quarters is estimated at 90% if current tariff policies remain unchanged, with a projected GDP decline of 4% [7] - SMEs are particularly vulnerable and may face a wave of bankruptcies if the economic downturn continues [7]

Group 1 - The latest report from the UK Office for National Statistics shows that the GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [1] - In June, GDP growth accelerated to 0.4%, doubling previous forecasts, highlighting the economic resilience amid challenging conditions [1] - Consumer spending rebounded strongly, driven by the services sector, while manufacturing output also unexpectedly improved, providing a buffer against economic challenges [4] Group 2 - The unexpected economic resilience complicates monetary policy decisions, with inflation pressures easing on one hand and stronger-than-expected growth raising the threshold for policy adjustments on the other [8] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts this year have diminished, with rate futures indicating borrowing costs may stabilize at 3.5% next year [8] - The UK labor market shows mixed signals, with job losses smaller than initially anticipated since last autumn's fiscal adjustments, supporting consumer spending but raising concerns for monetary policy shifts [8] Group 3 - Retail sector performance serves as a key indicator of economic health, with John Lewis reporting a 12% increase in home goods sales and a 9% rise in fashion sales, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [10] - However, the British Retail Consortium's survey revealed a significant drop in retail sales balance from +24 to -6 in July, the largest decline since last winter, suggesting that the recovery may not be stable [10] - As the third quarter begins, the UK faces a delicate turning point, with positive growth data tempered by underlying challenges that may not be immediately visible [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of rising tariffs and producer price index (PPI) on U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), suggesting a potential wave of bankruptcies as these businesses struggle to absorb increased costs [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, significantly higher than June's zero growth and market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [2][3]. - Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 3.3% in July, up from 2.3% in June and exceeding the market forecast of 2.6% [2][3]. - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, compared to 2.6% in the previous month [2][3]. Tariff Cost Distribution - As of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of the tariff costs, consumers 22%, and foreign exporters 14%. Projections indicate that by October, consumers may bear 67% of the costs, while foreign companies and U.S. firms would bear 25% and 8%, respectively [5][6]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase predict that tariffs could lead to a 1% decline in U.S. GDP and an inflation increase of 1% to 1.5% [5][6]. Impact on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises - SMEs are particularly vulnerable to the rising costs associated with tariffs, with experts estimating a 90% chance of the U.S. economy contracting for two consecutive quarters, potentially leading to a 4% decline in GDP [6]. - The lack of operational capital in SMEs makes it difficult for them to absorb additional costs, leading to warnings of widespread bankruptcies among retailers if current tariff policies persist [6].

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose significantly in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the largest since June 2022, and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, the highest since February of this year, indicating upward inflation pressure in the supply chain [3][6][11] - The increase in PPI is primarily driven by the service sector, which saw a month-on-month rise of 1.1%, the largest since March 2022 [6] - Analysts believe that the rising PPI will lead to increased costs for businesses, which may eventually be passed on to consumers, indicating a potential rise in consumer price inflation [9][16] Group 2 - Economic experts predict that the U.S. is likely to enter a recession this year, with small and medium-sized enterprises facing a potential wave of bankruptcies due to rising costs and insufficient operating capital [2][28] - Goldman Sachs estimates that by October, U.S. consumers will bear 67% of the tariff costs, while foreign exporters will bear 25% and U.S. companies only 8% [19][21] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to lead to a decline in U.S. GDP by 1% and an increase in inflation rates by 1% to 1.5%, with significant uncertainty regarding the transmission of these costs to consumer prices [23][26]