Inflation Data Summary - In September, the U.S. CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in the previous month, but below the market expectation of 3.1%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.4% previously and below the expected 0.4%[2] - Core CPI also increased by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 3.1% last month, and the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, down from 0.3%[2] Economic Implications - The mild inflation data reduces the risk of the Federal Reserve making uninformed decisions amid the government shutdown affecting non-farm data releases[3] - The overall inflation increase is tempered by declines in housing, used car, and truck prices, while tariff impacts continue to be felt in categories like appliances and furniture[3] - Market expectations are set for two rate cuts within the year, with probabilities of 96.7% for October and 94.4% for December, indicating a strong belief in easing monetary policy[7] Sector-Specific Insights - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, down from 0.5% in the previous month, with notable declines in beef prices[4] - Energy prices increased by 1.5% month-on-month, influenced by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, although overall price increases remain limited[4] - Core goods prices fell to a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, primarily due to a drop in used car and truck prices, which decreased from 1.0% to -0.4%[5]

Inflation Overview - In September 2025, the overall CPI in the U.S. increased by 3.0% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.9% but below the market expectation of 3.1%[8] - Core CPI also rose by 3.0% year-on-year, matching the previous value and falling short of the market expectation of 3.1%[8] Price Trends - Food CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, while energy CPI experienced a notable rise, primarily due to a significant increase in gasoline prices, contributing 0.12 percentage points to the overall CPI[11] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with clothing prices rising by 0.7%, contributing 0.02 percentage points to the overall CPI, while used car prices fell by 0.4%[11] Housing and Services - Housing inflation has cooled, with the housing CPI increasing by only 0.2% month-on-month, contributing 0.07 percentage points to the overall CPI[11] - Core services CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with limited inflationary pressure observed in most service categories[11] Monetary Policy Outlook - The overall inflation data being lower than expected strengthens the likelihood of two interest rate cuts within the year, with a 25 basis point reduction anticipated in both October and December[11] - The Federal Reserve may adjust its stance on further rate cuts in the first half of next year based on employment performance and the impact of tariffs on inflation[11]

Inflation Trends - September CPI year-on-year growth increased to 3%, while month-on-month growth slightly decreased to 0.3%[4] - Core CPI year-on-year fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3%, with a month-on-month decline as well[4] - Energy inflation rose, with the CPI energy component year-on-year growth increasing to 2.8%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[10] Commodity and Service Inflation - Core commodity year-on-year growth remained stable at 1.5%, with a slight month-on-month decline[11] - Used car prices showed a slowdown in growth, indicating a lack of sustained upward momentum in future automotive inflation[11] - Core service year-on-year growth decreased to 3.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with transportation services also declining by 1 percentage point to 2.5%[16] Economic Outlook - The expectation for two more interest rate cuts within the year has been reinforced following the inflation data release[20] - The overall inflation performance is moderate, lacking significant upward momentum, which paves the way for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates[20] - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[22]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In September 2025, the US CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while core CPI also rose by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, all below market expectations[2] - Overall inflation shows a marginal rebound, but core inflation is declining, indicating a potential easing impact from tariffs on US inflation[3] - Energy inflation rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while food inflation increased by 3.1%, showing a slight decline from August[4] Group 2: Future Inflation Trends and Federal Reserve Actions - The report suggests that inflation may trend downward in the future, with core inflation expected to remain stable or decrease slightly[5] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates by 25 basis points, with a total expected reduction of 75 basis points for 2025, due to ongoing risks in the labor market and low consumer confidence[6] - Consumer confidence index recorded a low of 55 in October, indicating pessimism about future economic conditions[42] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - The Michigan University inflation expectation remained stable at 4.6%, with a 5-year expectation at 3.7%, suggesting consumers do not anticipate rapid cost transfers to them despite income pressures[46] - The core services inflation, excluding housing, showed a year-on-year decline, reflecting significant differences across various consumption sectors[23] - Risks include potential inflation surprises due to international tensions and unexpected economic downturns in the US[47]

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, lower than the 0.4% increase in August, and year-on-year it increased by 3.0%, slightly above the previous value of 2.9% but still below market expectations of 3.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of decline, with the year-on-year increase also dropping to 3.0% [1] - Analysts believe that the moderate inflation growth opens up the possibility for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, despite short-term increases in energy prices [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities anticipates that the core inflation in September will continue to show a moderate upward trend, reinforcing the market's pricing of a rate cut in October [2] - The Federal Reserve's focus is shifting towards supporting the labor market, as signs of weakness in the job market have become more apparent, even in the absence of government data during the shutdown [2] - Even if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in October, the path for future easing by the Federal Reserve may be more constrained, with potential upward pressure on inflation leading to a possible pause in rate cuts in December or January [2]

Core CPI and Inflation Trends - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3% in September, while the overall CPI increased to 3% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.3% [2][4][14] - Energy prices saw a rise, contributing to the overall CPI increase, while core services continued to cool down [4][14] Energy Sector Insights - The year-on-year growth rate of energy CPI rose to 2.8%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, with Brent crude oil averaging $68.2 per barrel in September [5] - Oil prices have been under pressure since October, averaging $64.9 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical developments and economic growth concerns [5] Commodity Inflation Analysis - Core commodity year-on-year growth remained stable at 1.5%, with a slight month-on-month decline [7] - The used car market showed signs of slowing sales, indicating a potential lack of sustained upward pressure on prices [7] Service Sector Performance - Core service year-on-year growth decreased to 3.5%, with housing and transportation services contributing to the decline [10] - Owner's equivalent rent growth fell to 3.8%, suggesting that housing inflation may continue to cool in the coming months [10] Long-term Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for one year slightly decreased to 4.6%, while five-year expectations rose to 3.9%, indicating ongoing concerns about future inflation risks [12] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the inflation data release, expectations for two more interest rate cuts this year were reinforced, as the overall inflation performance appears moderate and lacks significant upward momentum [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the September CPI data in the U.S., highlighting a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is above the previous value of 2.9% but below the expected 3.1%. The core CPI also shows a similar trend, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs and energy prices [1][7][20]. CPI Data Summary - The September CPI data was initially scheduled for release on October 15 but was postponed to October 24 due to the government shutdown. However, CPI data remains a priority as it is essential for calculating cost-of-living adjustments for social security [1][6]. - The year-on-year CPI increase of 3% in September reflects a rebound in energy prices, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, lower than both the previous value and expectations [7][8]. - Core CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, which is also below both the previous value and expectations [7][20]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices showed upward pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the fourth consecutive month of at least 0.2% increase. This reflects the shared burden of new tariffs among businesses, suppliers, and consumers [2][13]. - Specific items affected by tariffs include personal computers (+0.2%), sports goods (+1%), footwear (+0.9%), clothing (+0.7%), and household appliances (+0.8%) [2][13][14]. - Core services prices cooled down, with a core services CPI of 3.5% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both lower than previous values. Housing costs showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, returning to pre-pandemic levels [3][16][17]. Inflation Trends and Business Responses - Overall, the inflation data for September indicates a moderate recovery, with businesses absorbing some costs from tariffs while also passing on some to consumers. For instance, new car prices increased only 0.8% year-on-year, while used car prices saw a higher increase [4][20][21]. - A survey by the New York Fed indicated that about one-third of manufacturing firms have passed on all tariff costs to customers, while around 45% have only passed on part of the costs, and 25% have absorbed the costs entirely [20][21]. Economic Indicators - The October Markit PMI data showed strong economic expansion, with a composite PMI of 54.8, the highest in six months. The manufacturing PMI was 52.2, and the services PMI was 55.2, indicating robust activity in various sectors [5][22]. - However, consumer confidence slightly declined to 53.6 in October, reflecting concerns over high interest rates and price fatigue [23]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was reported at 96.7%, reinforcing market expectations of a "soft landing" for the economy. U.S. stock markets saw gains across major indices, with technology stocks leading the rally [5][24][25].

美国CPI数据公布后，交易员加大对美联储今年还将降息两次的押注。与美联储政策利率挂钩的期货合 约还显示，市场对美联储在明年1月会议上进一步降息的预期也在升温。 民生证券认为，美国9月核心通胀有望延续温和上涨态势，这也意味着市场基本定价的10月降息预期难 以逆转。短期来看，美联储对于就业市场风险的权衡暂时超过了通胀，近期鲍威尔也多次强调，劳动力 市场出现越来越多疲软迹象，即便在停摆期间缺乏政府数据的情况下，就业下行风险已明显上升。至少 站在当前节点，温和的通胀为美联储保留了10月降息的余地，或可优先缓解就业问题。 美国9月CPI低于预期，市场预期下周美联储继续降息。 本周五，美国公布9月消费者价格指数（CPI）， 因通胀数据降温，投资者乐观认为这份数据为美联储 继续维持降息路径扫清了障碍，并支撑了股市更高的估值水平。当天，美国三大股指均创下收盘历史新 高，其中道指涨1.01%，史上首次突破47000点，标普500指数涨0.79%，纳指涨1.15%。 因市场对美联储的降息预期升温，带动银行股走强，其中摩根大通、富国银行和花旗集团股价均涨超 2%，美国银行股价上涨1.56%。从周线上看，本周道指累计上涨2.2%，标 ...

"9月核心CPI低于预期，这应会让美联储对其下周降息的计划感到更为安心。"布朗说，下周联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）中支持降息的力量可能进一步壮大。 他指出，9月通胀低于预期主要是因为租金价格涨幅较弱，其中，占CPI篮子权重高达26%的业主等价租金（OER）环比 仅上涨0.1%，主要居所租金微涨0.2%，均不及预期。另外，到目前为止，关税对通胀的传导效应整体仍不明显，但9月 再次出现多种潜在关税影响商品价格上涨的迹象。比如，服装价格环比上涨0.7%，新车价格上涨0.2%。不过，这些上 涨部分被二手车价格和医疗护理商品价格下跌所抵消。 惠誉评级美国经济研究主管奥卢·索诺拉也对智通财经表示，9月CPI数据让美联储松了一口气，不会影响其10月可能连 续第二次降息的计划。 智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国9月通胀全线低于预期，这意味着下周美联储大概率将实施今年第二次降息。 劳工统计局周五晚发布的数据显示，9月，消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3%，涨幅虽然为今年2月来最高，但不及预 期的3.1%；环比上涨0.3%，不及预期的0.4%，涨幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。剔除能源和食品价格的核心CPI同比上涨 3%，环比上涨0 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September increased by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, suggesting underlying inflation remains a concern [1] - Energy prices were a significant driver of the CPI increase, with the energy price index rising by 1.5% month-on-month, and gasoline prices up by 4.1% for the second consecutive month [1] Inflation Trends - The food price index increased by 3.1%, the energy price index by 3.7%, and the housing price index by 3.6% year-on-year in September, reflecting broad-based inflationary trends [1] - Despite overall manageable inflation, the data indicates a warming trend in prices, influenced by the Trump administration's tariff policies on domestic consumption [1] Federal Reserve Implications - The slight uptick in inflation and growing concerns over weak employment provide the Federal Reserve with clear room to consider interest rate cuts in the remaining monetary policy meetings of the year [1][2]