21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 随着美国关键通胀数据相对平稳落地，市场对美联储降息的预期再度升温。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月12日，美国劳工部发布的消费者价格指数显示，美国7月份通胀压力维持 6月份以来的上升势头。7月份消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，与6月份涨幅持平。但剔除波动较大的食 品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者价格指数同比上涨3.1%，高于6月的2.9%，远高于美国联邦储备委 员会制定的2%目标；环比涨幅为0.3%，高于6月份的0.2%。 整体而言，关税的影响在7月份的CPI数据中没有6月那么明显，通胀没有加速上行。在CPI数据公布 后，投资者押注美联储9月降息25个基点的概率超过90%，美联储或在今年剩余的三次会议上都降息。 据央视新闻报道，8月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交平台"真实社交"上发文，要求美联储主席鲍威尔立 即降息，并指责其"总是行动太迟"。特朗普称，他正考虑允许针对鲍威尔的相关诉讼继续推进。 在经济数据和白宫压力的双重驱动下，美联储9月降息50个基点的可能性也已经浮现，接下来会"暴力降 息"吗？ 通胀意外温和 迄今为止，美国大规模征收进口关税对商品价格的传导有限。 中航证券首 ...

Inflation Data - The US July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[6] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected at 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and recorded at 3.06%[6] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the 2-year US Treasury yield fell to 3.72%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.31%[4] - The market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a decline in the dollar index below 98 and a rise in US stocks[4] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market expectations suggest 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but the analysis indicates a potential adjustment down to 2 cuts (in September and December) or even 1 cut (in October)[5] - There is an identified risk of at least an 11 basis point correction in the current rate cut expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on the dollar index and short-term interest rates[5] Economic Outlook - The rebound in used car prices and ongoing tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts prices contribute to inflation dynamics, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector[6] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term trends over short-term data fluctuations, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's eventual rate cuts and ongoing central bank gold purchases[5]

Inflation Data Summary - In July, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, consistent with expectations but lower than the previous 0.3%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.1%, exceeding expectations of 3% and up from 2.9% in the prior month[1] Market Reactions and Trends - The underwhelming July CPI data led to a consensus in the market favoring a rate cut in September, with positive responses in both stock and bond markets[2] - Despite some positive signs in imported goods prices, service sector inflation accelerated, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy[2] Key Influencing Factors - Energy prices fell significantly, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, down from a previous increase of 0.9%[3] - Food prices remained stable, showing no change month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.3%[3] - Core services, particularly in transportation, saw notable increases, with transportation services rising by 0.8% month-on-month[4] Future Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll data will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, especially if employment risks materialize[5] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell is expected to maintain a cautious approach, emphasizing data dependency before any rate cut decisions[5]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The US July CPI was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from the previous value[2] - Core CPI for July was 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 2.9%[2] - Service prices increased more than goods prices, indicating a shift in inflation dynamics[2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices rose by 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.29%[3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut rose to nearly 100%, with at least two cuts anticipated by year-end[3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The average tariff rate in the US increased from 16.6% to 18.6% as of August 7, the highest since 1933, which is expected to raise inflation by 1.5-1.8 percentage points[4] - The market anticipates a significant rise in inflation starting Q3, with PCE inflation projected at 3.0% and core PCE at 3.2% for Q4[5] - The likelihood of consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is low, given only three FOMC meetings remaining this year[5]

Group 1 - Global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of over $1 billion (approximately 15 tons) last week, with North American funds being the primary driver, while European and Asian funds experienced slight net outflows [1] - Asset management funds increased their long positions by 15,000 contracts, raising their net long position to 45.7% of total open interest, while reducing their net short positions to 11.5%, the lowest level since gold prices stabilized [1] Group 2 - On the domestic market, gold prices rose by 0.08%, closing at 777.72 yuan per gram [2] - Market sentiment has been affected by trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., leading to a potential support for dollar assets, while U.S. economic data deterioration has increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, heightening market risk aversion [4] - Technical analysis indicates that international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, facing resistance at the previous high of $3,450, with expectations of potential upward movement if a stronger breakout occurs [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The July CPI remained unchanged year - on - year, with a growth of 2.7%, lower than the Wind expected value of 2.72%. The core CPI increased slightly year - on - year, growing by 3.0%, also lower than the expected 3.04%. Both CPI and core CPI are below the inflation level in February this year [2]. - The main reason for the CPI decline this month is the drop in the energy item, and food prices also slightly decreased. The energy sub - item decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, and gasoline prices decreased by 2.2% month - on - month. Food sub - item increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown [3]. - The new and used car markets are warming up, indicating a recovery in consumer demand and confidence. However, the used - car wholesale market shows a slight decline, and the inflation concerns from it may be alleviated. Furniture prices are still cooling, reflecting a deepening of weakening demand [4]. - Service - related CPI continues to rise, mainly due to expectations. But the cooling housing market may make service inflation unsustainable, and the spiral risk is still weak [5]. - Supply chain pressure continues to ease, and the CPI of tariff - related commodity categories is cooling. The "one - time impact theory of tariffs" has more explanatory power for the market [7]. - This month's CPI presents a pattern of "service inflation and commodity deflation". Weak demand has a strong resistance to prices, and the decline in commodity CPI further confirms that the impact of tariffs on prices may be one - time. The rise in service CPI may not form a stubborn inflation spiral [7]. - Inflation is still controllable. Market participants regard the inflation data as a positive signal. The FedWatch tool shows that the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen from 85.9% to 93.4%, and more voices within the Fed support interest rate cuts [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Observation - **CPI and Core CPI Trends**: In July, the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase (0.1 pct lower than the previous value). The core CPI increased by 3.0% year - on - year, with a 0.3% month - on - month increase (0.1 pct higher than the previous value) [2]. - **CPI Sub - item Analysis**: The energy sub - item decreased by 1.1% month - on - month (previous value 0.9%), and gasoline prices decreased by 2.2% month - on - month. The food sub - item increased by 2.9% year - on - year, 0.1 pct lower than last month, and 0.0% month - on - month (0.3% in June) [3]. - **Demand - Sensitive Indicators**: Used - car prices increased by 0.5% month - on - month (previous value - 0.7%), and 4.8% year - on - year. New - car prices also recovered. The CCI US consumer confidence index rose to 97.3% (previous value 93%). However, the used - car wholesale market declined, with the Manheim used - car value index showing a year - on - year decrease to 2.8% and a month - on - month decrease to - 0.53% [4]. - **Demand - Lagging Indicators**: Furniture price growth slowed to 0.7% month - on - month (previous value 1.0%), reflecting the real impact of tariffs on prices and the deepening of weakening demand [4]. - **Service - Related CPI**: Service - related CPI continued to rise, but the housing market cooled. Most service - related CPI items increased, especially for medical care services and transportation services. The S&P CS housing price index shows that market rent growth has slowed for 5 consecutive months [5]. 3.2 In - depth Analysis - **Inflation Pattern**: This month's CPI shows a pattern of "service inflation and commodity deflation". Weak demand has a strong resistance to prices, and the decline in commodity CPI confirms the one - time impact of tariffs on prices [7]. - **Reasons for the Limited Service Inflation Spiral**: Firstly, the rise in service CPI is driven by inflation expectations, but the actual decline in commodity prices this month may disprove these expectations. Secondly, the areas where service inflation continues to rise are mostly essential - need categories, and the downward trend in the real estate market shows that inflation lacks a strong rolling effect [7][10]. - **Inflation Outlook**: Inflation is still controllable. Since May, the CPI has remained at 2.7% after a one - time jump, and the core CPI has only increased by 0.1 pct per month, which is lower than the level in February. The market regards the inflation data as positive, and the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased [8].

当地时间8月12日，美国劳工部数据显示，美国7月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，环比上涨 0.2%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，环比涨幅为0.3%。这两项数 据均高于上月，其中环比涨幅为近6个月以来的最大值。 尽管7月份核心CPI创半年新高，对于市场预期的美联储9月降息预期而言仍不是好消息，但7月份美国 CPI整体数据显示通胀压力仍相对温和，市场担忧的通胀急剧上升的情况尚未出现。 中金公司宏观研究团队认为，从分项来看，关税成本仍在向零售端传导，但也有部分价格出现回落。一 些此前下跌的服务价格转为上涨，增加了通胀的黏性。美国通胀将进入一轮结构性上行阶段。 对美联储而言，核心CPI并未朝着2%目标收敛，而是重回3%以上，与目标越来越远。这可能加大美联 储内部分歧，使其难以就政策决议形成共识。货币政策路径的变数将大幅提升，市场波动将加剧。 开源证券宏观研究团队指出，核心商品的再通胀，或显示关税对美国通胀的冲击还在进行中。从美联储 关注的超级核心服务通胀来看，7月份同比、环比增速分别较6月份上升0.19个百分点、0.27个百分点。 往后看，随着低基数效应的出现、关税影 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's comments regarding his conversation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade dynamics between the U.S., Russia, and China [1] - Trump indicated that Orbán provided insights on the military capabilities of Russia compared to China's trade strength, suggesting that Russia wins through warfare while China wins through trade [1] - The article highlights Trump's defensiveness regarding U.S.-China trade relations, asserting that China would not defeat the U.S. through trade during his presidency, contrasting with President Biden's approach [2] Group 2 - A report from Goldman Sachs challenges Trump's claims about the benefits of his tariff policies, indicating that U.S. companies have borne 64% of tariff costs, with consumers expected to shoulder 67% of these costs by October [4][5] - The report warns that rising prices due to tariffs will exacerbate domestic inflation, with 64% of CEOs planning to pass on increased costs to consumers [5] - Trump's reaction to the Goldman Sachs report included personal attacks on the firm's CEO, dismissing the report's findings and maintaining that tariffs do not lead to inflation or economic harm [6][7]

Core Insights - US inflation data came in lower than expected, maintaining market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - Japanese stock market followed the upward trend of US stocks, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching a historical high [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.72% during intraday trading, reaching 43,451.46 points, marking a historical peak [1] - The index ultimately closed up 1.3% at 43,274.67 points, also setting a new closing record [1]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from June, and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than June's 0.3% increase [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in June, and the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, the largest since January [1] - Service prices have rebounded, indicating challenges in controlling inflation, despite no significant price increases in goods directly related to tariffs [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The U.S. inflation situation is complex, with strong resilience observed; tariff-related price increases are noted in certain services, such as medical insurance and furniture [4] - Despite rising prices, overall inflation has not deteriorated significantly due to a cooling labor market, with a downward revision of non-farm employment numbers and a first-half economic growth rate of only 1.4% [5] - The potential impact of recent data on Federal Reserve monetary policy is highlighted, with President Trump advocating for immediate interest rate cuts to lower government refinancing costs and support the economy ahead of the midterm elections [7] Group 3: Market Expectations - There is a significant probability that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate cuts in September, especially if labor market data continues to worsen, despite inflation being above target [8] - Investor sentiment is leaning towards a rate cut in September, influenced by the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data expected at the end of August [8]