1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its strong upward trend during Monday's trading session, with gold and silver futures prices hitting new all - time highs. After the interest rate cut bullish factors were realized, the market selling pressure increased significantly, and the market entered a wide - range volatile correction starting last Wednesday. On Friday night, driven by the warming trading sentiment, the precious metals market continued to break through strongly, and the silver futures prices at home and abroad hit new all - time highs. Beyond the interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical conflicts and the intensifying US government debt problem are structurally bearish for the US dollar, providing strong support for the gold price. In the future, after the gold and silver prices quickly break through important levels, they may face upward resistance and the callback pressure gradually increases. There is a high possibility that the gold and silver prices will enter a phase of consolidation after hitting new highs. The market's strong bullish sentiment towards the precious metals market may become more cautious, and the subsequent market trend will still depend on the performance of the August PCE personal consumption expenditure data. Interval band trading is recommended, and short positions can be lightly established on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 846.5 yuan/gram, up 15.94 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 10317 yuan/kilogram, up 346 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 260256 lots, up 20079 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 504051 lots, up 70069 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 174322 lots, up 2828 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 128977 lots, down 6586 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 57429 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1148624 kilograms, down 10819 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 835.4 yuan/gram, up 9.5 yuan; the silver spot price was 10167 yuan/kilogram, up 306 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 11.1 yuan/gram, down 6.44 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 150 yuan/kilogram, down 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 994.56 tons, up 18.9 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15205.14 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266410 contracts, up 4670 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 51538 contracts, down 2399 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.43%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.66%, down 0.01% [2] 3.4 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 17.62%, down 4.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 17.63%, down 5.01% [2] 3.5 Industry News - Wall Street is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates faster and more significantly in the future. The futures market bets that the Fed's benchmark short - term interest rate will fall below 3% by the end of next year. US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, forcing both sides to negotiate to avoid a government shutdown. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund to promote US factory and infrastructure construction. The EU Commission passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [2]

Group 1: Market Data - The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 825.86 and 828.08 respectively; the current prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 9869.00 and 9902.00 respectively [2] - The price changes of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 1.76 and 1.26 respectively, with price change rates of 0.21% and 0.15% respectively; the price changes of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 61.00 and 67.00 respectively, with price change rates of 0.62% and 0.68% respectively [2] - The open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 87731 and 228640 respectively; the open interest of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 144039 and 395854 respectively [2] - The trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 192704 and 221255 respectively; the trading volumes of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 301538 and 646031 respectively [2] - The spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are -1.33 and -3.55 respectively; the spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are -58.00 and -91.00 respectively [2] - The price changes of Shanghai Gold T+D, London Gold, and London Gold (in USD/ounce) are -5.72, -2.62, and -15.12 respectively, with price change rates of -0.69%, -0.31%, and -0.41% respectively; the price change of Shanghai Silver T+D is -65.00, with a price change rate of -0.66%; the price change of London Silver (in USD/ounce) is 0.16, with a price change rate of 0.38% [2] - The current values of the differences between Shanghai Gold 2512 and 2510, and between Shanghai Silver 2512 and 2510 are 2.22 and 33 respectively; the current value of the gold/silver ratio (spot) is 84.04; the current values of the ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver are 7.04 and 7.30 respectively [2] - The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 56,430 kg and 1,203,523 kg respectively; the current inventories of COMEX gold and silver are 39,280,534 and 524,086,477 respectively [2] - The current values of the US Dollar Index, S&P Index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and USD/CNY are 97.3696, 6631.96, 4.11, 66.97, and 7.1087 respectively; their changes are 0.34%, 0.48%, 1.23%, 0.01%, and 0.09% respectively [2] - The current holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons each; the current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - In July, non-US investors increased their holdings of US Treasuries, with the total holdings reaching a record high. Japan's holdings of US Treasuries increased by $3.8 billion to $1.1514 trillion; the UK's holdings increased by $41.3 billion to $899.3 billion, reaching a record high. Mainland China's holdings decreased by $25.7 billion to $730.7 billion; Canada's holdings decreased by $57.1 billion to $381.4 billion, the lowest since April [3] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The expected number was 240,000, and the previous value was revised from 263,000 to 264,000. Although the number of initial claims decreased, the number of continued claims remained above the key level of 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [3] Group 3: Core Views and Strategies - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices declined. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in a risk - management move, in line with market expectations. Only newly - appointed Fed Governor Milan supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut [4] - The dot - plot shows that the Fed's current neutral expectation is to cut interest rates by 25 - 50 basis points this year and to below 3.5% next year. Under Trump's continuous pressure, the Fed's stance on rate cuts remains cautious [4] - The US retail sales in August were strong, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% (the forecast was 0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month. The CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core inflation remained at 3.1% year - on - year [4] - Multiple data this month show a weak employment market in the US economy, especially the non - farm payrolls of 22,000, far lower than the market expectation of 75,000. Trade negotiations have shown multiple developments, but the overall trade environment has deteriorated. The market is still observing the continuation of the impact of tariff inflation [4] - The US fiscal deficit and debt continue to expand, and central banks represented by China continue to increase their gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold are still clear. Due to the lack of expectations for recession - style rate cuts, attention should be paid to the adjustment of profit - taking after the short - term expectations are fulfilled [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [4] - With liner companies significantly reducing freight rates and pre - holiday cargo volume being concerning, the near - month contracts have obvious declines, and further position - adding is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set [2] Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - From September 12 to September 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) dropped 11.71% to 903.32 points; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) fell 8.1% to 1440.24 points; the NCFI (European route) decreased 14.78% to 729.42 points; the SCFIS (US West route) rose 37.7% to 1349.84 points; the NCFI (US West route) declined 9.13% to 1216.14 points [2] - From September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased 46.33 points to 1398.11 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) dropped 2.1% to 1125.30 points; the SCFI European route price fell 12.24% to 1154 USD/TEU; the CCFI (European route) decreased 6.2% to 1537.28 points; the SCFI US West route rose 8.27% to 2370 USD/FEU; the CCFI (US West route) declined 2.2% to 757.45 points [2] PMI Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), service PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, hitting the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous 4.5) [2] - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from last month [3] - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4; the Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3] Trade and Tariff Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [4] Market and Contract Information - On September 17, the main contract 2510 closed at 1109.7, with a decline of 6.72%, a trading volume of 4.35 million lots, and an open interest of 4.96 million lots, an increase of 2092 lots from the previous day [4] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. Temporarily wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Take profit when each contract rises, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Events - The EU will announce measures against Israel on September 17, including suspending trade preferences and imposing sanctions on extreme - right ministers and violent settlers, to pressure Israel to end the Gaza conflict [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. The Canadian central bank also cut rates. Hong Kong aims to assist mainland tech firms in financing, promote RMB - denominated trading of Hong Kong stocks, and build a regional gold reserve hub [1]. - Gold has long - term upward drivers due to factors like the Fed's rate - cut cycle, weak U.S. employment data, and central banks' gold purchases, but short - term adjustments may occur after the expected rate cut [2]. - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to the combination of tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, along with mixed downstream demand [3]. - The Chinese stock index has entered a high - level consolidation phase in September. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun, with different index characteristics for offensive and defensive strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day - **International News**: On September 18, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with the dot - plot indicating another 50 - basis - point cut in 2025 and a 2026 median rate of 3.4% [5]. - **Domestic News**: The National Cyberspace Administration of China requires leading enterprises to take on the responsibility of tackling "neck - stuck" technologies in key areas like chips [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public comments on a mandatory national standard for intelligent connected vehicles' combined driving assistance systems. From January to July, the sales of passenger cars with combined driving assistance systems reached 7.7599 million, a 21.31% year - on - year increase [7]. 3.2 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.63%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.85%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 1.93%, and other commodities had various changes in price on September 17 compared to September 16 [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance. The Chinese stock index rose, with the power equipment sector leading the gain and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.40 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased on September 16. September's trend is more volatile, and the market is in a high - level consolidation phase. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just started [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank increased net reverse - repurchase operations. With the Fed's rate cut, the domestic central bank has more policy space, and the bond price has stabilized [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.52% at night. Eight countries decided to increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel voluntary cut may be partially or fully restored [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.67% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol inventory along the coast increased significantly. Methanol is short - term bearish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Wednesday. Supply is increasing, but with the arrival of the peak consumption season, demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices rebounded. The current market is mainly driven by supply and demand. After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has eased, and the stable oil price provides support. Terminal demand recovery may support the price rebound [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures are consolidating. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased last week. The market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the future depends on consumption and policy changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated more after the Fed's rate - cut decision. Gold has long - term upward drivers but may face short - term adjustments [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.84% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is high. Downstream demand is mixed, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.76% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and smelting output is expected to rise. Short - term supply may exceed demand, and zinc prices may be weakly volatile [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is increasing, while demand shows a mixed trend. The inventory is decreasing. Futures prices may be highly volatile, and the price is under pressure from the expected resumption of production [22]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile trend at night. The short - term market is under pressure but also supported by policy expectations [23]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore demand is supported. Global iron ore shipments have decreased, and port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The steel market has a small supply - demand contradiction. The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is facing challenges, and the market is in a short - term adjustment phase [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With the improvement of Sino - U.S. trade relations, the domestic supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats were weakly volatile at night. The MPOB report had a negative impact on palm oil, but the impact has been mostly digested. The market is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Sugar**: International raw sugar prices are expected to be weak due to increased supply. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventory but is also under pressure from imported sugar and new - season beet sugar. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international trend and be weak [29]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. The domestic cotton market is entering the new - flower acquisition period, and the price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [30]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was weak. During the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies' cargo - booking pressure increased, and price cuts intensified. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and attention should be paid to the follow - up price - cut rhythm of shipping companies [31].

Core Viewpoint - The trade negotiations between South Korea and the United States regarding a $350 billion investment plan are facing significant disagreements, leading to a challenging negotiation process [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - South Korea's Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, Kim Jong-hwan, stated that the current U.S. is fundamentally different from the U.S. of 10 or 20 years ago, indicating the complexity of reaching a trade agreement [1] - A senior official from the South Korean presidential office emphasized that the government will not sign an agreement that severely harms the interests of South Korean companies, asserting a stance of not forcing companies to bear losses [1] - The trade agreement framework was reached in July, but specific execution plans have not yet been finalized, with ongoing negotiations to adjust terms to better fit South Korea's economic context [1] Group 2: Investment Details - The U.S. is requesting that the investment methods and profit distribution structures for the $350 billion investment align with those used for Japan, which poses challenges given South Korea's economic scale [1] - South Korea is engaged in protracted negotiations to seek adjustments that reflect its actual economic situation, indicating a need for tailored solutions rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [1]

Group 1 - The core issue in the trade negotiations between South Korea and the United States is the disagreement over a specific investment plan worth $350 billion, leading to a "tug-of-war" situation in the talks [1] - A senior official from the South Korean presidential office stated that the government will not sign an agreement that severely harms the interests of South Korean companies, emphasizing the stance of not forcing companies to bear losses [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trade negotiations between South Korea and the United States regarding a $350 billion investment plan are facing significant challenges, with both sides having differing views on the specifics of the agreement [1]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - South Korea's Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, Kim Jong-hwan, emphasized that the current U.S. is fundamentally different from what it was 10 or 20 years ago, indicating the complexity of negotiating trade agreements under new circumstances [1]. - A senior official from the South Korean presidential office stated that the government will not rush into an agreement that severely harms the interests of South Korean companies, reinforcing the stance of not forcing companies to bear losses [1]. Group 2: Investment Agreement Details - Although a framework for the trade agreement was reached in July, specific execution plans have not yet been finalized [1]. - South Korean Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum mentioned that the U.S. is requesting that the investment methods and profit distribution structures align with those used for Japan, which poses challenges given the scale of the South Korean economy [1].

Group 1 - The core issue is the disagreement between South Korea and the United States regarding the specific plan for a $350 billion investment, leading to a protracted trade negotiation process [1] - South Korea's Minister of Trade emphasized that the current U.S. is fundamentally different from what it was 10 or 20 years ago, indicating the challenges in negotiating a trade agreement under pressure [1] - A senior official from the South Korean presidential office stated that the government will not sign an agreement that severely harms the interests of South Korean companies, reinforcing the stance of not forcing companies to bear losses [1] Group 2 - Although a trade agreement framework was reached in July, there is still no consensus on the specific execution plan [1] - The U.S. is requesting that the investment methods and profit distribution structures align with those used for Japan, which poses difficulties for South Korea due to its economic scale [1] - South Korea is engaged in negotiations to adjust the terms to better fit its actual economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trade relationship between the United States and India is showing signs of thawing as new rounds of bilateral trade agreement negotiations have been restarted, although India remains cautiously optimistic about the outcomes [2][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - On September 16, a new round of bilateral trade agreement negotiations was initiated in New Delhi, marking a positive signal in the previously strained relationship [4]. - The U.S. delegation, led by Brendan Lynch, aims to engage with Indian officials to restart trade discussions [4]. - The negotiations were originally scheduled for late August but were postponed due to the imposition of high tariffs on Indian goods by the U.S. [5]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The U.S. has imposed a total tariff rate of 50% on Indian imports, significantly affecting trade dynamics [5][10]. - In August, India's exports to the U.S. dropped from $8.01 billion in July to $6.86 billion, indicating the immediate impact of the tariffs [11]. - Overall, India's total exports fell to $35.1 billion in August, the lowest in nine months, with a trade deficit narrowing to $26.49 billion [12]. Group 3: Economic Projections - Analysts predict that the U.S. tariff policy could result in a loss of approximately $8 billion in exports for India, particularly affecting sectors like gems, jewelry, textiles, and chemicals [14]. - A think tank estimates that India's exports to the U.S. could decline by over 40% by 2026, potentially dropping to around $50 billion [13]. - The tariffs are expected to threaten hundreds of thousands of jobs in key export sectors, including textiles and jewelry [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the U.S. retail sales in August, which increased by 0.6% month-on-month, marking the 11th consecutive month of growth, suggesting robust consumer spending despite economic challenges. This may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [1][2][15]. Group 1: Key Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August, surpassing the expected 0.2%, and a year-on-year growth of 2.1% [2][15]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, while the core inflation rate was at 3.1% [2][15]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, which was below the market expectation of 3.3% [2][15]. Group 2: Commodity Insights - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to the anticipation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a neutral expectation of three cuts within the year [2][16]. - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate within a range due to mixed factors, including tight supply and varying demand from sectors like electricity and automotive [3][17]. - Oil prices increased by 1.56% as OPEC+ countries decided to adjust their production levels, indicating a stable outlook for global economic growth [3][10]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Chinese government, through the Ministry of Commerce and other departments, announced measures to expand service consumption, including optimizing student holiday arrangements and enhancing service supply [1][4]. - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to influence market conditions, particularly regarding tariffs and inflation [2][15]. Group 4: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed volatility, with major indices experiencing fluctuations, indicating a period of consolidation after a prolonged uptrend [8][9]. - The bond market saw a decrease in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 1.784%, reflecting increased expectations for interest rate cuts [9]. Group 5: Industry-Specific Developments - The real estate sector in China is facing challenges, with the launch of a direct sales platform by the China Real Estate Association aimed at improving market efficiency [6]. - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed signals, with soybean planting area adjustments and expectations for supply improvements affecting market dynamics [20][24].