Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline on "Black Friday," with all three major indices falling sharply, but a subsequent rebound in after-hours trading suggests a more rational analysis of future market directions by Wall Street [1] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.9% - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.71% - The Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted by 3.56%, marking the largest single-day decline since April [1] Market Reactions - After the initial shock, Wall Street began to reassess the situation, interpreting the recent actions as a negotiation tactic by Trump rather than a genuine threat [1] - The White House confirmed that negotiations between the U.S. and China were not canceled, which contributed to the market's recovery [1] Historical Context - Previous instances indicate that Trump's threats, such as the 100% tariff, are often used as leverage and tend to be unsustainable over time [1] - The last occurrence of a 100% tariff lasted about a month before it was retracted, suggesting a pattern in Trump's negotiation style [1] Economic Indicators - The stability of U.S. Treasury yields and the stock market is closely tied to the ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China, indicating that both parties' actions are critical for market confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market opened lower, with significant declines in major indices, particularly the Nasdaq, which fell by 1.83%, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors amid ongoing economic uncertainties [1] Market Performance - Major technology stocks experienced substantial declines, with Intel (INTC.US) dropping over 6%, Nvidia (NVDA.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), and Oracle (ORCL.US) each falling more than 4%, while Tesla (TSLA.US) and TSMC (TSM.US) decreased by over 3% [1] Economic Concerns - Despite signals of openness in trade negotiations between China and the U.S., market observers from institutions like Morgan Stanley, Evercore ISI, and JPMorgan remain cautious, warning that the risks of short-term volatility have not dissipated [1] - High valuations combined with the risk of a U.S. government shutdown and trade uncertainties could exacerbate economic losses [1] Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 13 days, causing chaos among federal public affairs and government employees, which has negatively impacted financial markets [1] - Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the government shutdown is already affecting the economy, with ongoing stalemates between Republicans and Democrats over funding plans [1] - The shutdown has led to significant disruptions, including illness among air traffic controllers causing airport delays and the closure of landmark attractions affecting the tourism industry [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil prices experienced a rebound on October 13, with WTI crude oil closing at $59.49 per barrel, up 1.00%, and Brent crude at $63.32 per barrel, up 0.94% [1] - The recent price drop was attributed to the volatility in US-China trade relations, but the willingness to negotiate has limited further market sell-offs [1][3] - The oil market is currently undergoing a restructuring of soft power dynamics, influenced by geopolitical events and trade negotiations [3][4] Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser projected strong global oil demand growth driven by developing countries, with an expected increase of 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2025 and 2026 [2] - Saudi Aramco's production capacity stands at 12 million barrels per day, with a low extraction cost of $2 per barrel, indicating a strong position in the market [2] - The psychological support for WTI oil prices is seen at the $60 per barrel mark, influenced by stable demand from China [3][4] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the release of hostages signify a shift from "risk discount" to "restorative valuation" in Middle Eastern oil supply dynamics [4] - The role of the US as a mediator in the Gaza conflict reflects its energy diplomacy and soft power, potentially impacting oil transportation routes [4] - The current oil price fluctuations are viewed as a rebalancing of the "military-energy-currency" soft power framework [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in international oil prices is seen as a correction of overly pessimistic sentiment rather than a trend reversal, with ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks continuing to impact market stability [1][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil has risen above $63 per barrel, while WTI crude is stabilizing around $60, following significant declines due to renewed trade tensions [1]. - Last Friday, both Brent and WTI recorded their largest single-day drops since August, with Brent falling by 3.8% and WTI dropping below the $60 mark [1]. Group 2: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The U.S. has indicated a willingness to negotiate with Asian countries after announcing 100% tariffs and export restrictions, which has provided temporary relief to oil prices [1][3]. - Asian countries have responded positively to dialogue but remain firm against threats, which may help alleviate short-term trade concerns and support risk assets [3]. Group 3: Market Uncertainties - Despite the positive signals, investor confidence remains low due to the lack of concrete actions and negotiation arrangements [3]. - The introduction of port surcharges on U.S. vessels by Asian countries has led to the cancellation of some crude oil transport plans, increasing uncertainty in the energy market [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - WTI crude has found temporary support around $59.00 after a rapid decline, but it has not yet broken through the critical resistance level of $60.00 [3]. - If prices do not stabilize above $60, the rebound may not be sustainable, with support levels identified between $59.30 and $58.50 [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The overall technical outlook remains weak, and short-term operations should be approached with caution, especially if there are no substantial developments in U.S.-Asia trade negotiations [6].

杰富瑞：即使中国收紧稀土出口管制，导致紧张局势升级，中美贸易协议仍有可能达成。最新的限制措施可能旨在增强中国在与华盛顿的贸易谈判中的筹码。如果两国关系进一步升级，中国将占据上风。“中国由于其社会主义制度，能够比美国承受更多痛苦，并且持续更长时间”。“特朗普是一位交易撮合者，而非理想主义者，这意味着他愿意接受妥协，（尤其是在）痛苦过大或成本/收益不利于他的情况下。” ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. may impose export controls on Boeing aircraft parts in response to China's rare earth export restrictions, which could significantly impact Chinese airlines and related U.S. suppliers [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Trump's administration has utilized Boeing as a strategic tool in trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of aircraft as high-value trade items [2][3]. - The U.S. and China have historically been significant trade partners, with China projected to be the third-largest goods trading partner for the U.S. in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Boeing's Strategic Importance - Boeing's aircraft, particularly the 737 model, have been a major part of China's aviation market, with approximately 1,855 active Boeing aircraft and at least 222 on order [1]. - The long delivery cycles of aircraft orders allow countries to announce purchases without immediate financial burdens, aligning with Trump's negotiation strategies [2][3]. Group 3: Impact on Suppliers - U.S. suppliers, such as General Electric Aviation, may face challenges if export controls are enacted, particularly concerning engines used in Boeing's 737 MAX and other aircraft [1].

Core Viewpoint - Stocks experienced their worst day since April due to new tariff threats and trade talks, reviving market concerns related to trade issues from earlier in the year [1] Group 1 - The market's decline was significantly influenced by renewed fears surrounding trade negotiations and tariff implementations [1] - This downturn reflects the ongoing volatility in the market related to trade policies, which has been a recurring theme throughout the year [1] - Investors are reminded of the potential impacts of trade tensions on stock performance, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to such developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - China has announced unprecedented export controls on rare earth materials, which are critical for modern technology, potentially giving it leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S. [1][4] Group 1: Export Control Measures - On October 9, China's Ministry of Commerce issued new regulations that impose export controls on certain rare earth-related items and technologies containing Chinese components [4][9] - The new rules require foreign companies to obtain Chinese approval for exporting rare earth magnets and some semiconductor materials that contain 0.1% or more of Chinese heavy rare earth elements [4][9] - The regulations will take effect on December 1 for certain items and immediately for others, particularly those with military applications, which will generally not be permitted for export [5][9] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Economy and Technology - Experts warn that strict enforcement of these regulations could lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, particularly affecting the AI industry [1][4] - The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese rare earths for high-tech products, with China controlling approximately 70% of global rare earth mining, 90% of refining, and 93% of magnet manufacturing [4] - The new export controls are seen as a significant challenge to U.S. efforts to build domestic supply chains and reduce reliance on Chinese materials [7][9] Group 3: Strategic Timing and Negotiation Leverage - The timing of the announcement coincides with anticipated high-level talks between the U.S. and China, suggesting a strategic move to strengthen China's bargaining position [5][8] - Analysts believe that these measures are part of a broader strategy to compel the U.S. to reconsider tariffs and export controls on Chinese technology [7][8] - The U.S. may respond with increased tariffs, cutting off Chinese access to semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and accelerating domestic rare earth production [5][7]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 9, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 612 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, 2,063.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,451.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a relatively loose funding condition on the first trading day after the holiday, with overnight repo rates for deposit-taking institutions dropping about 6 basis points to around 1.32% [3] - The overnight quotes for non-bank institutions borrowing against credit bonds also decreased but remained above 1.5%, not returning to the particularly loose liquidity levels seen previously [3] - The central bank's operation of over 1 trillion yuan in reverse repos alleviated the pressure from the large amount of reverse repos maturing [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.66%, down more than 1 basis point from the previous day [8] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.46%, the 10-year by 0.15%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.02% [14] Group 5: Key News - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on specific rare earth items, requiring exporters to obtain licenses for exports to countries outside China, particularly for military users and certain semiconductor manufacturing applications [15] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced adjustments to the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions starting January 1, 2026 [15] - During the recent holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million person-times, an increase of 123 million compared to the previous year, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up 108.2 billion yuan [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Soybeans**: US soybean exports may continue to decline due to the impact of the Chinese market. The US government shutdown has increased market uncertainty, and the rapid progress of soybean harvesting has intensified supply pressure. Short - term US soybean futures prices remain in the same oscillation range. The domestic soybean supply is temporarily stable, and after the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to South American weather, Sino - US relations, domestic downstream inventory consumption, and restocking [3][47]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply pressure has not been resolved, and the negative basis of soybean meal has not been repaired. The two key variables are the shipping speed of Brazilian soybeans and the progress of Sino - US agricultural trade consultations. The short - term divergence between domestic and foreign soybean futures prices persists, and the mid - to long - term linkage may be restored if trade relations improve [4][49]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Canadian rapeseed harvesting has increased supply pressure, and ICE rapeseed prices are under pressure. The mid - term core variable is the progress of trade negotiations. The short - term rapeseed meal futures prices may oscillate weakly, and after the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to domestic arrivals and inventory changes [6][49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Market Review 1.1 Soybean Spot Prices Remain Stable - This week, the spot price of imported second - class soybeans in Zhangjiagang was 3,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the spot price of domestic third - class soybeans in Nenjiang, Heilongjiang was 3,820 yuan/ton, also unchanged [10]. 1.2 Bean Futures Prices Oscillate Weakly - In the 40th week of 2025, bean futures prices oscillated weakly. As the National Day holiday approached, the trading volume and open interest of both bean one and bean two significantly decreased [12]. 2 Sino - US Meeting: Soybeans Become an Important Issue; South American Soybean Exports Accelerate 2.1 US Government Shutdown, USDA Reports Suspended; Sino - US Meeting: Soybeans Become an Important Issue - S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts that the average yield of US soybeans in 2025 will be 53.0 bushels per acre, with a production of 4.261 billion bushels. The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of USDA and CFTC reports. Trump announced a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks, with soybeans as a core issue. However, it is difficult to change the situation of US farmers in the short term [23][24]. 2.2 Brazilian Soybean Sowing Accelerates; New - Season Yield Forecast Remains at a Record High - As of October 4, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans was 8.2%. The Brazilian National Supply Company predicts a 3.6% increase in soybean production to 177.67 million tons. StoneX forecasts a production of 178.6 million tons. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised the forecast of Argentine soybean production in the 2024/25 season to 49.5 million tons [25][26]. 2.3 South American Soybean Exports Accelerate; US Soybean Exports to China Remain Unimproved - In September, Brazilian soybean exports increased significantly compared to the same period last year. ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports to reach a record 110 million tons this year. Argentina's soybean exports also increased, and during the tax - exemption period, a large amount of soybeans were registered for export to China. US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, and there were no exports to China last week [27][28][29]. 2.4 Soybean Arrival Pressure Persists; Oil Mills' Soybean Meal Inventory Pressure Remains - Tables show the cost and crushing profit of imported soybeans from the US West Coast, US Gulf Coast, Brazil, and Argentina. The arrival pressure of soybeans and the inventory pressure of soybean meal in oil mills still exist [31][37][40]. 3 Conclusion - **US Soybeans**: The USDA quarterly inventory report shows that the inventory as of September 1 was 316 million bushels, slightly lower than expected. Exports may continue to decline, and the government shutdown has increased uncertainty. The short - term futures price oscillation range remains unchanged [45]. - **Bean Two**: The domestic soybean supply is temporarily stable, and after the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to South American weather, Sino - US relations, domestic downstream inventory consumption, and restocking [47]. - **Bean One**: During the National Day, the harvest of new soybeans in Northeast China accelerated, increasing supply pressure and suppressing prices. The protein content of new soybeans is lower this year, and downstream procurement is cautious. Short - term prices may oscillate weakly [48]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply pressure has not been resolved, and the negative basis has not been repaired. The two key variables are the shipping speed of Brazilian soybeans and the progress of Sino - US agricultural trade consultations. The short - term divergence between domestic and foreign soybean futures prices persists [49]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Canadian rapeseed harvesting has increased supply pressure, and ICE rapeseed prices are under pressure. The mid - term core variable is the progress of trade negotiations. Short - term futures prices may oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to domestic arrivals and inventory changes [49].