格隆汇12月21日丨美联储哈玛克表示，11月通胀数据积极，可能是由于10月和11月上半月政府停摆造成 的数据收集扭曲，而低估了12个月的价格增长。虽然劳工统计局报告称11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，但针对 数据测量困难进行调整后的估计值使其更接近预测者们普遍预期的2.9%或3.0%的水平。此外，哈玛克 对降息的担忧核心在于她的观点，即中性利率水平比普遍认为的要高，且经济本身就具备在明年保持稳 健增长的势头。中性利率无法直接观测，但可以通过经济运行状况来推断。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Report Title - "Weak Oscillation, Bottoming Out and Rebounding - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report", dated December 21, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The inflation data in the US in November showed a slowdown, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected and down from 3.0% in September. Core CPI also hit a new low since March 2021. In China, the CPI in November rose 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase expanding. The increase was related to the rise in food prices [33]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding this week. Refined nickel prices first fell and then rose, and nickel inventories were at a high level compared to the same period. There were supply disturbances as the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia might be 2.5 billion tons, lower than in 2025. The nickel ore market was affected by the rainy season, with unstable shipments in the Philippines and relatively loose supply in Indonesia. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream demand and rising costs, but its medium - term sustainability was weak. In the stainless - steel market, approaching the year - end off - season, steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand was poor, and inventory reduction was slow. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract was approximately 113,000 to 120,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract, it was about 12,300 to 13,200 yuan/ton [33]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Market Review - Focused on the price trend of the nickel futures main contract, presenting a data chart of the nickel futures closing price (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [6][7] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - Showed the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports, presenting a data chart of the Chinese nickel ore port inventory from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 tons [9][10] 2.2 - 2.4 Midstream - **2.2**: Presented the price of electrolytic nickel, showing a data chart of the electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) price from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [12][13] - **2.3**: Presented the price of nickel sulfate, showing a data chart of the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [14][15] - **2.4**: Presented the monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, showing data charts of the monthly import volume of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with units of tons and yuan/nickel respectively [16][17] 2.5 - 2.8 Downstream - **2.5**: Covered the price, futures positions, and inventory of stainless steel. It presented data charts of the stainless - steel futures closing price (continuous), stainless - steel futures positions, and Wuxi stainless - steel inventory from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with units of yuan/ton, lots, and tons respectively [18][21][24] - **2.6**: Presented the monthly output of power and energy - storage batteries, showing a data chart of the monthly output of Chinese power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the monthly output of power and energy - storage batteries from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of megawatt - hours [26][27] - **2.7**: Presented the monthly output of new - energy vehicles, showing a data chart of the monthly output of Chinese new - energy vehicles from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 vehicles [28][29] Part 3: Future Outlook - Analyzed the inflation data in the US and China, and the market conditions of nickel and stainless steel. Predicted the operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract [33]

Group 1 - The silver market is currently in a consolidation phase, with prices fluctuating and reaching a high of $66 on Wednesday, while remaining above $64 on Friday, indicating a long-term upward trend [1] - The U.S. labor market shows volatility, with November non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.5% [1] - Retail sales in the U.S. remained flat in October, with declines in auto sales and gasoline revenues offsetting growth in other categories [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the lowest level since July and below market expectations of 3.1% [2] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, also falling short of the expected 3.0% [2] Group 3 - On Thursday, silver prices opened at $66.177, experienced a drop to $65.514, and then surged to a high of $66.65 before closing at $65.473, indicating a strong bullish trend [3] - The key short-term support level for silver is $64.32, which is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum; a drop below this level could trigger profit-taking [3] - The current strong expectations for interest rate cuts suggest limited downside potential for silver prices, despite the possibility of a pullback [3]

Core Insights - Gold spot prices are projected to gain approximately $50/oz week-over-week, closing around $4,340/oz after a strong start to the week [2][3] - The market is anticipating at least two more rate cuts next year, influenced by macroeconomic data [2] Economic Data Impact - Key employment data for October and November revealed a 4.6% unemployment rate, a loss of 105,000 jobs in October, and only 64,000 new jobs added in November, indicating a weak labor market [4][6] - Retail sales growth for October was reported at 0% month-over-month, with downward revisions to previous figures [6] Inflation and Market Sentiment - November's Core CPI showed a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, better than the expected 3%, but market confidence in the data is low due to the October government shutdown [7] - The perceived reliability of inflation metrics is questioned, limiting their influence on rate-cut expectations [8] Market Dynamics - Despite weak U.S. economic data, gold prices have remained stable, suggesting a near-term ceiling for gold [8] - Ongoing demand from ETFs and central banks, along with geopolitical risks, continues to support gold prices at current levels [8]

周五（12月19日）亚欧时段，现货黄金仍震荡徘徊短期高位区间内尚未爆发，目前暂交投于4326美元附近。周四（12月18日），金价一度飙升至4374美元/ 盎司的近两个月高点，却在短时间内回吐涨幅，收盘时勉强守住阵地，收报4332.31美元/盎司。这一波动并非孤立事件，而是深受美国最新消费者物价指数 （CPI）数据影响的产物。低于预期的通胀数据一方面刺激了美联储降息预期，推动美债收益率下滑，为金价提供了短暂的上涨动力；另一方面，却削弱了 黄金作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力，导致多头获利了结。 基本面： 美国11月CPI数据的公布，成为本次金价波动的导火索。根据劳工统计局的报告，11月消费者物价同比上涨2.7%，远低于经济学家预期的3.1%。这一数据本 应是市场的一剂强心针，因为它暗示通胀压力正在缓解，有助于美联储维持宽松货币政策。然而，现实情况远比表面复杂。由于联邦政府停摆长达43天，数 据收集工作严重受阻，导致10月大部分物价数据缺失，甚至取消了10月CPI的发布。这份报告被经济学家戏称为"瑞士奶酪"，充满了缺口和偏差。延续法在 处理缺失数据时假设10月价格指数不变，这在统计上引入了下行偏向，使得通胀趋势显得比实际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent slight rebound in zinc prices is attributed to the interplay between U.S. inflation data and market sentiment, while poor domestic physical trading further constrains the market, indicating that short-term zinc prices will primarily experience high-level fluctuations and adjustments [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed volatility today, with the main contract (2602) opening at 22,985 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 23,090 CNY/ton, and closing at 23,075 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY, or 0.17% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2602 contract was 88,361 lots, an increase of 2,041 lots, while the open interest rose by 2,640 lots to 86,365 [1]. - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,072.5 USD, an increase of 14.5 USD [1]. Group 2: Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price for 0 zinc was reported between 23,110-23,210 CNY/ton, with an average of 23,160 CNY, up 40 CNY; 1 zinc was between 23,030-23,130 CNY/ton, averaging 23,080 CNY, up 50 CNY [1]. - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price ranged from 22,770-23,070 CNY/ton, averaging 22,920 CNY, also up 50 CNY, while 1 zinc was between 22,700-23,070 CNY/ton, averaging 22,850 CNY, up 50 CNY [1]. - The current spot zinc market quotes 0 zinc between 23,100-23,210 CNY/ton and 1 zinc between 23,030-23,130 CNY/ton [1]. Group 3: Macro and Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than market expectations and down from 3.0% in September, indicating a potential underestimation of actual inflation levels [2]. - Domestic smelters are experiencing increased maintenance, while downstream consumption shows resilience, leading to a continuous decline in social inventory [2]. - The import volume of zinc ore has decreased due to unfavorable price differentials, resulting in expanded losses for Chinese imports of zinc concentrate [2]. - Domestic smelters are beginning winter raw material reserves, favoring domestic zinc concentrate procurement, but competition among smelters is intensifying, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and reduced profits [2]. - The demand side is weakening, particularly in the real estate sector, with only the automotive sector showing some support due to policy backing [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recent decline in zinc prices is influenced by disappointing U.S. inflation data and traders reducing their positions ahead of the Christmas season, despite tight supply and decreasing social inventories providing some support [1][2]. Group 2 - In the zinc futures market, overnight London zinc prices fell by 0.44%, closing at $3058 per ton, with a trading volume of 9734 lots, down by 3501 lots [1]. - The macroeconomic context indicates that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, significantly lower than the expected 3.1%, but the data collection was hindered by a 43-day federal government shutdown, leading to concerns about the reliability of the data [1]. - The domestic zinc mining import volume has decreased due to unfavorable price comparisons, leading to increased losses in importing zinc concentrate, while domestic smelters are starting to stockpile raw materials for winter, favoring domestic zinc concentrate procurement [2]. - The overall demand side shows a weakening trend, particularly in the real estate sector, with construction and home appliance sectors also showing signs of decline, while only the automotive sector shows some positive developments due to policy support [2]. - The current trading environment is characterized by low willingness to restock among downstream markets, resulting in a generally quiet trading atmosphere [2].

Group 1: US Employment Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 13 fell to 224,000, down from 237,000 the previous week, and below economists' expectations of 225,000 [1][6] - The four-week moving average of jobless claims increased slightly to 217,500, indicating a "moderate fluctuation" in the overall data during the holiday season [1][6] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose to 1.897 million, better than the market expectation of 1.93 million, with the four-week average revised to 1.902 million from a previous value of 1.838 million [1][6] Group 2: Japanese Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike to 0.75%, marking the second increase this year and the highest level since September 1995 [2][6] - The central bank noted that the trend of moderate wage and price increases is expected to continue, with reduced uncertainty from US economic and trade policies [2][6] - The Bank of Japan emphasized that if inflation targets are met, it will continue to raise policy rates and adjust monetary easing [2][7] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced slight declines, trading around 4327, influenced by profit-taking and strong US employment data [3][8] - US inflation data falling short of market expectations diminished gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [3][8] - Key resistance for gold is noted at 4360, with support around 4300 [3][8] Group 4: Currency Markets - The USD/JPY pair saw slight declines, trading around 155.90, influenced by technical selling near the 156.00 level and weak US inflation data [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair also experienced slight declines, trading around 1.3780, affected by technical selling near 1.3800 and weak US inflation data [5][10] - Key resistance for USD/JPY is at 157.00, with support at 155.00, while for USD/CAD, resistance is at 1.3850 and support at 1.3700 [4][5][9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility in the gold market following the release of the US CPI data, which showed a significant decrease in inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The US November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 3.1%, while the core CPI rose by 2.6%, also below the previous value and market expectations of 3% [1] - The market anticipates a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, with expectations for continued interest rate cuts into 2026 being reinforced by the recent inflation data [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates at its recent meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting where no changes were made [1] - The market is closely watching the actions of the Bank of Japan, with expectations of a dovish stance being fully priced in [1] - Despite the current supportive environment for gold prices, caution is advised regarding the potential for gold to quickly break through previous historical highs [1]

中辉有色观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | | I | 100 10 | 2 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国数据利于宽松，英国继续降息，欧洲央行保持不变，短期市场流动性风险偏好 | 黄金 | | | 长线持有 | | 较好，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续 | | ★ | | 存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银短期故事越来越多、短期投机资金大量涌入，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供 | 白银 | | | 长线持有 | ★★ | 需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金 | | 银比价大幅快速降低，盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险 | | | | 美通胀不及预期，美联储 | | 1 月降息预期增加，美国虹吸全球铜库存，国内 2026 年铜 | | 铜 | | | | 长线持有 | ★ | 精矿 TC 长协谈判焦灼，铜易涨难跌，风物宜放长量，建议铜多单继续持有，回调仍 是布局良机，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 海外锌库存持续累库，锌精矿 ...