Group 1 - The article distinguishes between comprehensive bull markets and structural bull markets in the A-share market, highlighting their different market characteristics [1] - Since 2000, there have been four bull markets in A-shares: comprehensive bull markets from 2005-2007 and 2013-2015, and structural bull markets from 2016-2018 and 2019-2021 [1][3] - Comprehensive bull markets are characterized by higher average daily increases in the Shanghai Composite Index and market turnover rates compared to structural bull markets, with a greater proportion of stocks rising over 100% and equity funds yielding over 100% [1][3] Group 2 - The core driver of bull markets is the recovery of fundamentals, with liquidity easing and industrial trends often creating a resonance effect [3] - Comprehensive bull markets typically arise when fundamentals improve broadly, as seen in the 2005-2007 bull market, while structural bull markets can occur during periods of structural improvement in fundamentals combined with liquidity easing and industrial trends [3][4] - The 2005-2007 bull market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 502%, with nominal GDP maintaining double-digit growth and A-share net profit growth rebounding from -5.8% to 63.5% [4] Group 3 - The 2013-2015 bull market was driven by a combination of monetary easing in China and the U.S., along with the influx of leveraged funds, resulting in a 164% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The structural bull markets from 2016-2018 and 2019-2021 were influenced by improvements in fundamentals and inflows of northbound capital, with the latter period seeing a 49% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The article suggests that the A-share market may enter a new cycle of structural bull markets driven by the three-dimensional resonance of fundamentals, industry, and capital [4][5] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the recovery of fundamentals is expected to be gradual, with macro and micro liquidity resonating with industrial upgrades to drive market growth [5] - The potential for simultaneous monetary easing in China and the U.S. could lead to a shift of domestic assets towards equity markets, supported by a slowdown in IPOs and restrictions on shareholder reductions [5] - The article posits that while a comprehensive bull market may be unlikely due to the broad scope of the A-share market, new incremental capital could drive a structural bull market, with 2025 being a potential starting point [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to Trump's unexpected tariff policy, there is strong panic in the international financial market. Western stock indices such as the US stocks are leading the decline. A - shares, with a more domestic - oriented investor structure, had a smaller decline before the Tomb - sweeping Festival. The stock index market showed characteristics of the after - glow stage such as low volatility and shrinking volume. Considering the large external market fluctuations and the indices' valuations at a phased high, the sharp decline this week was in line with expectations, and the short - term trend has not stabilized. It is recommended that investors maintain a defensive stance. In the medium - term, the underlying logic for the start of the A - share bull market has not changed. After the short - term pessimistic expectations peak, the impact of external factors such as tariffs tends to be "bad news out". Referring to the market from H2 2019 to H1 2020, an opportunity for a second upward rally after the sharp decline can be awaited. Attention should be paid to whether the Fed will implement a compromise - style interest rate cut after the uncertainty of the US economic outlook, and whether domestic policy efforts will increase after the end of the earnings report window at the end of April [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The People's Daily published a commentator article stating that in the face of the US's arbitrary tariff measures, China has countermeasures. Monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have sufficient room for adjustment and can be introduced as needed. Central Huijin announced that it is firmly optimistic about the development prospects of the Chinese capital market, fully recognizes the current allocation value of A - shares, has increased its holdings of exchange - traded funds (ETFs) again, and will continue to increase its holdings to maintain the stable operation of the capital market [4] 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review 3.2.1 Disk Tracking - In the previous trading day, A - shares tumbled rapidly. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 5.46%, the CSI 300 Index fell 7.05%, the CSI 500 Index fell 9.55%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 11.39%. In terms of sectors, only the agriculture sector rose 0.73%, while the Internet sector fell 14.08% and the software sector fell 13.35%. More than 5,200 stocks declined, and more than 3,000 stocks hit the daily limit down, indicating extremely poor profitability [4] 3.2.2 Technical Tracking - Affected by the spill - over of external market risks, the indices gap - downed collectively yesterday, and the technical indicators quickly turned bearish. Attention should be paid to the repair situation in the next two days, and the short - term daily and weekly - level pressures have strengthened [4] 3.2.3 Fund Flow - The trading volume of A - shares increased slightly, reaching around 1.6 trillion yuan yesterday. The willingness of funds to bottom - fish was fair, but it is hard to say that the market has stabilized, and it is expected that the divergence will continue today [4] 3.3 Core Logic Summary and Operation Suggestions 3.3.1 Core Logic Summary - After Trump's unexpected tariff policy, the international financial market is panicky. Western stock indices lead the decline, while A - shares decline less. The short - term market has not stabilized, but the medium - term bull - market logic remains unchanged. After the short - term pessimism, external factors may turn positive, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate policy and domestic policy adjustments [3] 3.3.2 Operation Suggestions - In futures operations, the discount of stock index futures contracts generally widened yesterday, with larger changes in IF and IH contracts, which have room for correction. It is recommended to continue holding the long - IF and short - IM portfolio; maintain a wait - and - see stance for single - side trading. In options operations, the implied volatility of stock index options soared rapidly yesterday, with the at - the - money IV of the CSI 300 for the current month reaching around 40%, approaching the high in September 2024. Since put option buyers had substantial profits yesterday, they can take profits today, and it is not recommended to enter the market as option sellers for now [3]