突尼斯媒体报道，时隔9个月，突尼斯中央银行决定再次下调基准利率，从7.5%下调至7%，自2026年1 月7日起生效，相应的银行贷款和存款利率分别调整至8%和6%，以确保利率范围的一致性，并保证货 币政策方向能够有效地传导至市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrated macroeconomic policies to enhance governance effectiveness and support China's economic stability and high-quality development [3][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - Macroeconomic policies are crucial for maintaining stable economic operations and achieving high-quality development in China [3]. - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for the first time in 14 years, which will significantly aid in economic recovery [3][4]. - The 2026 macroeconomic policy will focus on stability and quality improvement, continuing to implement proactive policies and enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy in 2025 will increase the deficit ratio and issue a larger scale of government bonds, supporting local governments and addressing hidden debt replacement policies [4]. - There is a need to enhance local fiscal capacity and establish mechanisms for increasing revenue and reducing expenditure to ensure basic public services [4][5]. - The total public budget expenditure for 2025 is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan, with 1.03 trillion yuan allocated for transfers to local governments [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy in 2025 will include timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [6]. - The central economic work conference highlights the importance of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [6]. - A variety of monetary policy tools will be utilized flexibly to support the real economy while maintaining financial system health [6][7]. Group 4: Policy Coordination - Effective macroeconomic governance requires a focus on the consistency and effectiveness of policies, integrating economic and non-economic policies [8][9]. - There is a need to strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to ensure that various measures work in concert to stabilize the economy [9]. - The article stresses the importance of managing expectations and enhancing narrative capabilities to boost social confidence in the economy [9].

Morning session notice Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，早盘小幅回探后连续上涨，截至收盘 30 年 期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.37%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.15%，5 年期 TF2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.09%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.02%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 99 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天无逆回购到期，当 | | | | | 日合计净投放 99 亿元。央行周四还开展 1.1 万亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 3 | | | | | 个月（90 天），当日有 1.1 万亿元买断式逆回购到期，完全对冲。 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率保持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.47%，上一 ...

Core Viewpoint - After the New Year, the mainstream region's soda ash spot prices have gradually stabilized, with an increase in export volume in November 2025, but domestic demand remains weak, keeping prices low [1] Group 1: Supply and Production - In 2025, the national soda ash production reached 37.857 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with December production rising to 3.18 million tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic ammonia-soda plants was 79.2% as of January 2, 2026, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points month-on-month and 7.3 percentage points year-on-year; the operating rate of the soda-lime process was 72.7%, down 1.1 percentage points month-on-month and 8.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Two new production units are planned to be commissioned in the first quarter of 2026, adding a total capacity of 3.7 million tons per year, bringing the total domestic soda ash capacity to 44.6 million tons per year [2] - Domestic soda ash companies have been depleting inventory for two consecutive weeks, with inventory dropping to 1.4083 million tons as of January 2, a decrease of 30,200 tons week-on-week and 40,000 tons year-on-year, although the absolute inventory level remains high [2] Group 2: Export and Demand - In November 2025, soda ash exports totaled 189,400 tons, a decrease of 25,100 tons month-on-month; the total export volume from January to November 2025 was 1.9612 million tons, an increase of 922,500 tons year-on-year [2] - The increase in export volume is primarily due to domestic soda ash prices being at a low point, leading to increased export orders; however, future export growth remains uncertain with rising spot prices [2] - As of January 2, 2026, the daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 153,300 tons, a decrease of 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in December 2025 was 73,500 tons, an increase of 4.2% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year [3] - The demand structure for heavy soda indicates that float glass accounts for 35%-40% and photovoltaic glass for 10%-15%; float glass production decreased by 6.5% year-on-year, while photovoltaic glass production fell by 9.3% year-on-year [3] - Light soda demand has increased due to the recovery in the lithium carbonate industry, while the demand for alumina and detergents remains stable; overall, the short-term supply-demand balance for soda ash is unlikely to change significantly [3]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policy is crucial for maintaining stable economic operations and advancing high-quality development in China, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 and 2026 [1] Fiscal Policy - In 2025, the fiscal policy will increase the deficit ratio and arrange a larger scale of government bonds, enhancing local transfer payments to support growth, structural adjustments, and risk prevention [2] - The fiscal expenditure for 2025 is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan, with central government transfers to local governments amounting to 10.3 trillion yuan, indicating significant fiscal pressure [3] - There is a need to address local fiscal difficulties by establishing mechanisms for increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, ensuring the basic financial security for grassroots services [2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy in 2025 will adopt a flexible approach, including timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [4] - The emphasis will be on maintaining liquidity and promoting low financing costs while addressing structural economic issues through targeted monetary policy tools [4] - A diverse toolbox of monetary policy instruments will be utilized to balance short-term and long-term goals, supporting the real economy while ensuring the health of the financial system [4] Policy Coordination - There is a strong emphasis on the need for precise and effective macroeconomic policies, focusing on enhancing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and supporting key areas such as domestic demand and technological innovation [5] - The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies is essential to prevent inconsistencies that could undermine market expectations and policy effectiveness [6] - The government aims to strengthen the consistency and effectiveness of macro policies, ensuring that various measures work in concert to stabilize the economy [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that President Trump is expected to decide on the next Federal Reserve Chair by January, possibly around the time of the World Economic Forum in Davos [1] - There are currently four candidates for the position: NEC Director Hassett, former Fed Governor Warsh, current Fed Governor Waller, and BlackRock executive Riedel, with Riedel being the only candidate yet to be interviewed [1] - Mnuchin stated that current interest rates are still considered high, suggesting that monetary policy should not be in a restrictive state, with appropriate rates estimated to be between 2.5% and 3.25% [1] Group 2 - Mnuchin emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to fulfill its responsibility to promote investment growth, while also supporting the economic agenda of the Trump administration, which he claims has laid the foundation for strong economic growth [2] - He praised the tax cuts, trade agreements, and deregulation policies enacted last year, while criticizing the Biden administration's trade policies, high taxes, and heavy regulations for weakening economic vitality [2] - Regarding housing policy, Mnuchin noted that large financial institutions have been buying single-family homes since the global financial crisis, and he highlighted Trump's plan to restrict institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes to alleviate housing affordability issues [2] Group 3 - The government has not yet finalized the specific thresholds for what constitutes an institution in terms of housing purchases, with discussions ongoing about the number of homes that would classify an entity as an aggregator [3]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Mexican peso appreciated nearly 20% against the US dollar, becoming one of the best-performing currencies in emerging markets despite global trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Peso Performance Overview - The peso exhibited characteristics of "high-level operation, significant fluctuations, and strengthening at year-end" throughout 2025 [2]. - The peso's appreciation was supported by the Mexican central bank's restrained monetary policy and influenced by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's policies and global capital flows [4][5]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The Mexican economy showed "low growth but resilience," with GDP growth expectations adjusted to approximately 0.7% for 2025, supported by stable labor markets and ongoing investment projects [6]. - Inflation rates decreased from previous highs but showed volatility, with overall inflation reaching 3.8% in November 2025, prompting the central bank to lower the benchmark interest rate to 7% [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - In 2026, the peso's performance will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, potential changes in carry trade structures, and uncertainties surrounding trade and political issues [9][10]. - The peso is expected to enter a "rebalancing phase" after its strong performance in 2025, with increased volatility anticipated due to external factors and capital flow changes [10].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools, indicating a continued loose monetary stance in January 2026 [1][3][4] Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On January 8, the PBOC conducted a 99 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 99 billion yuan due to the maturity of other repos [1] - The PBOC is likely to continue using tools such as government bond transactions and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to ensure ample liquidity in the market [1][3] Group 2: Factors Affecting Liquidity - Multiple factors are expected to disturb liquidity in January, including fiscal deposits and credit issuance, with a projected net increase in fiscal deposits of approximately 620 billion yuan [2] - The liquidity gap for January 2026 is estimated to be around 1.9 trillion yuan, influenced by cash withdrawals and bank reserve requirements [2] Group 3: Policy Tool Utilization - The market anticipates that the PBOC will intensify the use of policy tools to stabilize the funding environment, with expectations of a more proactive approach [3] - The PBOC is expected to employ a combination of reverse repos, MLF, and government bond transactions to inject medium-term liquidity, reflecting a continued "moderately loose" monetary policy [3][4] Group 4: Long-term Monetary Policy Signals - The PBOC's recent work meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining ample liquidity to support high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery [4] - The overall monetary policy for 2026 is expected to exhibit characteristics of "quantity expansion and price stability," with a cautious approach towards tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The early start of the 2026 tax filing season is expected to boost the U.S. economy, allowing the benefits of the tax cuts passed by the Republican Party to reach Americans quickly [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, announced that the IRS will begin accepting tax returns on January 26, marking one of the earliest starts in the last decade [1] - Yellen urged the Federal Reserve to maintain an 'open mind' in its monetary policy decisions and to play a role in stimulating investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), amid multiple factors affecting January's liquidity [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On January 8, the PBOC conducted a 99 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 99 billion yuan due to the maturity of other repos [1] - The PBOC is likely to continue using tools like government bond transactions and MLF to ensure ample liquidity, with expectations of a sustained loose monetary environment [1][3] Group 2: Factors Affecting Liquidity - January's liquidity is influenced by multiple factors, including fiscal deposits and credit issuance, with a projected net increase in fiscal deposits of approximately 620 billion yuan, potentially widening the liquidity gap [2] - Credit issuance is expected to have an above-seasonal performance in January, driven by banks' early lending strategies, which may further increase the liquidity gap [2] Group 3: Policy Tool Utilization - The market anticipates that the PBOC will intensify the use of policy tools to stabilize liquidity, with expectations of less volatility in funding rates compared to seasonal patterns [2][3] - The PBOC's monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," utilizing a combination of reverse repos, MLF, and government bond transactions to inject medium-term liquidity [4] Group 4: Long-term Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC's 2026 monetary policy is characterized by "quantity expansion and price stability," with a focus on maintaining liquidity while being cautious with tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [4] - The overall liquidity environment is projected to remain ample, with low volatility in funding rates becoming the norm, supported by the PBOC's targeted operations [4]