Core Viewpoint - The demand for ternary materials in the market continues to diverge, with domestic high-nickel high-voltage orders persisting, while overall overseas demand remains weak [2][4]. Group 1: Production and Market Share - In Q1 2025, China's ternary material production was 140,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of 10.3%, while global production was 212,000 tons, down 9.3%. China's global market share increased from 64.4% in 2024 to 66.1% [2]. - The proportion of 6-series ternary materials in China has further increased, exceeding 30%, while the share of mid-low nickel materials continues to shrink [4]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Cost Impact - The cobalt price experienced significant volatility, with prices rising over 80% in about two weeks due to various policy factors, including the suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the establishment of a strategic alliance with Indonesia. This has notably impacted the cost of ternary materials, especially mid-low nickel types [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - Currently, orders for ternary materials are limited outside of high-nickel high-voltage products, with most changes being adjustments in order distribution among suppliers. In Q1 2025, Nantong Ruixiang emerged as a top player due to strong product shipments, while companies like Rongbai Technology, Tianjin Bamo, and Guangdong Bangpu benefited from overseas high-nickel demand [12]. - The ongoing U.S. tariff war is expected to suppress overseas demand for new energy vehicles in the short term, leading to a downward adjustment in total market expectations. However, domestic orders remain relatively stable, indicating a potential widening gap in demand across different supply chains [14].

作 者丨易妍君，彭卓 编 辑丨张星，梁明，江佩佩 4月2 2日市场震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一， 沪指重回3 3 0 0点上方 。截至早盘收盘，沪指涨0 . 3 1%，深成指跌0 . 4 1%，创业板指跌0 . 9 8%。盘 面上热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少， 全市场超3 1 0 0只个股下跌 。 | | | 3 0 元 / 克 关 口，续 创 历 史 新 高 。 高盛近期更新了预测，预计到2 0 2 5年年底，现货黄金价格将达到3 7 0 0美元/盎司，而到2 0 2 6年年中将攀升至4 0 0 0美元/盎司。 | | | FRENCE OF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | SHFE更全 | 833.48 | 35.02 | 4.39% | 34.26% | | SGE#31+D | 831.02 | 31.42 | 3.93% | 35.16% | | SGE黄金9999 | 831.80 | 27.69 | 3.44% | 35.30% | | 上海金 | 821.75 | 17.91 | 2.2 ...

中新网4月22日电（记者陈彩霞）"美国总统特朗普对关税的错误理解，导致他做出了一系列错误决定， 对全球资本市场、股市及债市造成严重冲击，将美国单边霸凌主义表现得淋漓尽致。"中国社科院国家 全球战略智库国际政治研究部主任赵海在接受中新网采访时如是说道。 赵海认为，目前中美双方在沟通层面存在着重大障碍，而这些障碍"明显是美方制造出来的"。 赵海强调，美国发起的关税战短期内遭遇强烈反弹，导致美国内市场陷入混乱，民众抗议不断，其阵营 内部也出现分裂——代表华尔街资本的美国亿万富翁马斯克与"美国优先"派代表、白宫贸易和制造业高 级顾问彼得·纳瓦罗激烈对立。 "面对各方压力，特朗普被迫调整策略，将关税政策仓促退让包装成'抬价后谈判'的既定计划，试图通 过施压换取他国让步，并最终将矛头集中指向中国。"赵海说道。 针对美"对等关税"一再升级，中方先后出台一系列反制措施，有力回击经济霸凌。 当地时间4月18日，美国哥伦比亚广播公司援引多名消息人士透露，由于特朗普政府对中国商品加征的 畸高关税将导致供应链危机，特朗普政府内部已开始讨论组建一个工作组，以便在未能与中国政府谈判 取得突破的情况下紧急处理这些问题。 他分析称，中美关系 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: April 22, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The expectation of price increase in May for spot goods is insufficient. Airlines are lowering quotes at the end of April, and quotes at the beginning of May are basically the same as those at the end of April. The demand on the US route has dropped significantly due to high tariffs and port - calling fees, and airlines may disperse ships to other routes, increasing supply pressure and making price increases more difficult. Short - term attention should be paid to the possible oversold rebound caused by the easing of Sino - US frictions, and the risk of decline in far - month contracts may be greater [8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The expectation of price increase in May is insufficient. Airlines are lowering quotes at the end of April, and quotes at the beginning of May are basically flat with those at the end of April. The large container quotes are mostly between $1900 - 2200, HPL quotes are higher, and it plans to further raise quotes for the second half of May. But there is no collective price - supporting action from shipping alliances yet. - Supply side: High US tariffs and port - calling fees on Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industries have led to a significant drop in demand and freight rates on the US route. Airlines' dispersion of ships to other routes may increase supply pressure and make price increases more difficult. - Suggestion: Pay attention to the possible oversold rebound due to the easing of Sino - US frictions in the short term. The decline risk of far - month contracts may be greater [8] 2. Industry News - From April 14th to 18th, the Chinese export container shipping market was basically stable, with the comprehensive index slightly decreasing. China's Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The market expects the "tariff war" to put pressure on Q2 trade and economy. - On April 18th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1370.58 points, down 1.7% from the previous period. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The European shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates slightly falling. The Mediterranean shipping market was slightly stronger, with spot booking prices rising slightly. - The WTO adjusted the forecast of global merchandise trade volume from a 2.7% increase at the beginning of the year to a 0.2% decline. The US - China shipping market saw a decline in cargo volume, and the freight rate on the US - West route decreased slightly. - Discussions on a Gaza cease - fire agreement are close to completion. The US government plans to charge additional fees on Chinese ships docking in US ports. Maersk will adjust peak - season surcharges for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the US and Canada. US President Trump said he is confident of reaching an agreement with China [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From April 14th to 21st, the SCFIS for the European route increased by 7.6% from 1402.35 to 1508.44, while the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased by 13.8% from 1587.84 to 1368.41 [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures contracts on April 21st, including EC2504, EC2506, etc., showing information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [19][22]

更要命的是，美国国内的对抗越来越激烈。哈佛大学拒绝联邦政府的审查令，这直接把联邦政府和学术机构、蓝州之间的矛盾推到了顶点，演变成了一 场"谁掌握定义权"的体制战争。联邦政府对传统中立领域的强制渗透，严重动摇了美国制度的根基。 总而言之，现在美国内外交困，各种风险叠加，甚至都有人说有发生内乱的风险。想想看，贫富差距拉大，社会分裂严重，加上经济危机和政治斗争，这火 药桶随时都可能爆炸。 最近美国那边，事情可真不少。感觉就像几百年前咱们老祖宗那会儿，商鞅变法的时候似的，一不小心就玩脱了。想当年商鞅那句"法治不诛心，诛心非法 治"，听起来挺霸气，结果呢？昏君奸臣一窝蜂，国家差点就散架了。现在美国这情况，跟这还真有点像，权力失衡，内忧外患，让人看着都替他们捏一把 汗。 说起来，这还得从特朗普的关税政策说起。这哥们儿一出手，就是全球关税战，那叫一个气势汹汹！结果呢？普通老百姓的钱包先瘪了，一年多花个三千多 美元，这可不是个小数目。爱荷华州的大豆农更是哭晕在厕所，价格暴跌68%，不少人直接破产。更可怕的是，美国经济对中国的依赖程度，比咱想象的还 要高，抗生素97%、稀土永磁体80%……这关税一打，风险直接飙升到爆表！国际货 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the return of multiple Boeing 737 MAX aircraft to Seattle due to increasing tariffs on aircraft purchases, which have risen by 125% since April 10 [12][15] - Airlines, including Xiamen Airlines and China Southern Airlines, are reconsidering their acceptance of Boeing aircraft amid the ongoing trade tensions, leading to delays in aircraft deliveries [12][16] - Boeing's Zhoushan factory, which has delivered fewer than 20 aircraft since its opening in late 2018, may face operational uncertainties again due to the tariff situation [13][15] Group 2 - The article highlights that Boeing has previously transferred delayed aircraft orders from Chinese airlines to Indian carriers, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [15] - The demand for narrow-body aircraft like the 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo remains high, with projections indicating that these aircraft will be sold out by 2030 [15][16] - If the tariff situation persists, other aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus and COMAC may benefit from the shifting demand in the market [16]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reports that the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are aggressive but may not have a lasting impact, as China's photovoltaic (PV) exports to the U.S. have become desensitized to tariffs through indirect exports via Southeast Asia [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "tariff war" has led to increased overseas production costs for Chinese PV manufacturers, which further squeezes profitability, yet they still maintain a relative advantage over U.S. manufacturing costs [1] - The process of U.S. PV manufacturing returning is filled with uncertainty, and in the medium term, the reliance on imported PV products is unlikely to change [1] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - To mitigate risks and enhance profitability, companies should focus on expanding into non-U.S. markets, promoting technological upgrades, and building brand recognition [1] - Achieving market diversification, localizing operations, and transitioning towards solution service providers are deemed crucial strategies for countering risks and driving profit recovery [1]

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街顶级投资机构Wedbush近日表示，"AI芯片霸主"英伟达(NVDA.US)以及更广 泛的美股科技板块，尤其是所谓占据纳指与标普500指数高额市值权重的"美股科技七巨头"(即英伟达、 谷歌以及苹果领衔的所谓"Magnificent Seven")需要就美国与中国之间持续的关税战役对于科技公司本身 的基本面预期，乃至特朗普政府掀起的面向全球关税政策对于公司基本面预期的影响程度予以明确且清 晰的展望路径。 新一轮美股财报季帷幕已经拉开，在Wedbush的分析师团队看来，英伟达与整个美股科技板块需尽快释 疑有关"特朗普面向全球关税政策"对于公司基本面预期的影响程度，如果科技公司们透露出的展望路径 像"芯片代工之王"台积电(TSM.US)那样无比强劲且强调关税影响十分有限甚至几乎无影响，可能带动 整个美股科技板块迈入"超级反弹曲线"。 上周，英伟达官方披露，美国政府在获得许可证之前阻止其向中国市场销售H20这一款专为中国市场定 制的AI芯片，这可谓成为英伟达基本面的又一次战略性的打击。英伟达预计因此将计提高达55亿美元 费用。 Ives等分析师们补充道："英伟达的负面消息可能只是未来动荡期的 ...

美国对华最高征1000%关税，外交部措辞升级，耶伦为中国说了公道话。特朗普政府又对中国发出了怎样的威胁？中方的回应出现了怎样的升级？耶伦又给 中国说了什么公道话？ 当然，这样的数字也只是看起来唬人，因为在关税超过商品利润，再怎么往上叠加都没有意义，在美国145%的关税政策下，实际上中美贸易就已经脱钩。 因此美国的又一次炒作关税数字，实际上对中国构不成任何威胁，只是进一步释放出美国的敌意而已。 在这样的背景下，中方的措辞也出现了升级。 4月16日，外交部发言人林剑被问及美国对华加税的数字问题时，提醒记者，具体的税率的数字应该问问美方。 当地时间4月15日，美国发布声明，对中国发出进一步威胁，白宫声称，由于中国采取报复行动，中方出口到美国的货品将面临高达245％关税。 在这之前，中方已经对美国输华商品对等反制征收了125％的关税，并明确表示美国商品已经没有进入中国市场的可能，因此接下来美国再加关税，中方将 不予理会。 结果果然不出中方所料，美国又开始在关税数字上做文章，恰好反映出特朗普政府已经黔驴技穷。 根据美国媒体报道，白宫所谓的245％关税，实际上并不是最新措施，而是此前关税的叠加，因为早在去年8月份，拜登政 ...

由于特朗普威胁罢免鲍威尔，引发美联储独立性危机，美元指数跌至2024年1月以来最低点，为新兴市场提供了反弹机会。 周一，新兴市场货币指数上涨0.3%，此前在上周，该指数已经录得0.8%的涨幅，创下六周以来最大单周涨幅。 Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.的策略师Win Thin和Elias Haddad在一份报告中写道： 我们相信美元疲软将会持续。然而，我们也继续认为，全球增长前景将在今年急剧恶化，因此对增长敏感的主要货币和新兴市场 外汇最近的涨幅可能无法持续。 彭博亚洲美元指数（追踪亚洲货币相对于美元表现）同样在周一走高，其中泰铢和马来西亚林吉特的表现尤为抢眼，日内涨幅均达到1%。 过去一个月，泰铢兑美元汇率涨幅达到3.2%，涨势显著。 美元本轮大跌源于特朗普解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的可能性，这引发了人们对美联储独立性的担忧。美元指数在连续三周走弱后，周一一度跌 破98关口，至2024年1月以来的最低水平。 Anand Rathi Wealth Ltd.的共同基金主管Shweta Rajani表示： 新兴市场资产迎来强势反弹周，印度股市五连涨 受对中国经济的乐观情绪以及特朗普宣布暂停加征 ...