Core Viewpoint - The unexpected shift in Trump's stance regarding high tariffs on China, acknowledging them as excessive and proposing significant reductions contingent on China's agreement to U.S. conditions, marks a pivotal moment in U.S.-China trade relations [1][5][9]. Economic Context - The U.S. federal debt is projected to exceed $36 trillion by 2025, with public debt accounting for approximately $29 trillion. The government faces an interest repayment of $1 trillion this year against an expected revenue of $5 trillion, leading to a tense fiscal situation [3]. - The U.S. trade deficit is expected to surpass $1.2 trillion by 2024, exacerbated by high tariffs that have increased import costs for consumers and businesses, resulting in a 1.4% reduction in market income [11][18]. Trade Relations and Tariff Adjustments - The tariff conflict escalated from an initial 10% tariff on China to as high as 145%, with retaliatory measures from both sides. A temporary agreement was reached in May, reducing U.S. tariffs to 30% and Chinese tariffs to 10% [7][13]. - Despite the agreement, Trump retains a portion of the original high tariffs and emphasizes the need for China to increase purchases of U.S. goods and address trade imbalances [11][18]. International Relations and Strategic Moves - Japan's refusal to halt the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds adds pressure on the U.S. financial situation, prompting Trump to seek a resolution with China [5][12]. - The U.S. military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, involving allies like Japan and Australia, are seen as a strategy to maintain pressure on China while negotiating trade terms [9][14]. Future Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are complicated by the U.S.'s significant debt burden and the need for economic stability. China's economic resilience and commitment to mutual benefit in trade negotiations position it favorably in the ongoing discussions [20].

7月16日，美国总统特朗普在签署《全面遏制芬太尼贩运法案》前的几小时，突然话锋一转："我认为中国一直在帮助我们。"他特意强调中国在芬太尼问题 上"正在迈开大步"，甚至暗示中国"想做点什么"的态度值得肯定。戏剧性的是，当同日晚些时候特朗普真正落笔签署法案后，他的调门又陡然逆转。他再次 拾起那些被事实反复驳斥的说辞，声称"中国提供了大部分芬太尼"，甚至危言耸听地表示"有些人会说中国提供了所有芬太尼"。 这种自相矛盾的表演背后，关税——这个中方最关切的实质议题——他却绝口不提。特朗普对芬太尼问题的态度摇摆，始终与关税政策紧密相连。今年2 月，他就以中国"未能阻止芬太尼流入"为由，宣布对所有中国输美商品加征10%关税。这些指控出台时，美国海关边境保护局的记录却显示：自2019年5月 中国实施全球最严格的整类列管政策以来，美方再未查获过来自中国的芬太尼类物质。中方的反应迅速而有力。 在特朗普3月3日又迅速将税率提高至20%的第二天，中国就对美国农产品加征报复性关税，并精准"剑指"数十家美国企业。贸易关税争端迅速不断加码升 级，直到5月日内瓦会谈才达成临时休战——双方同意将双边关税下调115%，各自保留10%的"底线"。 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克大力推动特朗普政府的关税政策，但他的儿子却推出产品，允许投资者押注关税 将被法院永久驳回。 据媒体报道，卢特尼克之子旗下的金融服务公司Cantor Fitzgerald近期提出，以20%至30%的折扣价格 收购企业已缴关税的潜在退款权，押注特朗普关税可能在法律挑战中落败。 面临不确定的时间表和日益增长的财务压力，一些企业也认为，接受这一报价更为明智。 如果特朗普关税被法院永久性阻止，自4月2日开始缴纳关税的企业可获得连本带息的退款。 据美国海关和边境保护局数据，特朗普新关税政策已征收数十亿美元，专家估算，若上诉维持原判，退 款总额可能达140亿美元。 据Cantor代表透露，这一交易已有企业参与，达成约1000万美元的权益交易。 关税退款交易机制 Cantor Fitzgerald由卢特尼克的儿子Kyle和Brandon领导，公司代表表示愿意以企业已缴关税20%-30%的 价格收购关税退款权。 "对于缴纳1000万美元关税的公司，他们可以期望在交易中获得200万至300万美元。我们目 前有能力处理数亿美元规模的此类交易，未来可能会扩大规模以满足潜在需求。" 专家表示，这类交易通常被寻求从潜 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - The main silver futures contract in Shanghai closed at 9249 yuan per kilogram, up 1.00%, with an intraday high of 9437 yuan and a low of 9301 yuan [1] - COMEX silver closed at 39.24 USD per ounce, up 2.12%, with an intraday high of 39.38 USD and a low of 38.37 USD [1] Group 2: COMEX Silver Inventory Data - As of July 21, 2025, COMEX silver inventory was 15478.52 tons, equivalent to approximately 497,645,563 ounces [2] - The inventory increased from 15466.03 tons on July 18, 2025, indicating a rise in silver stock levels [2] Group 3: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Indonesia is negotiating details of a new trade agreement with the U.S., with recent tariff rates on Indonesian exports reduced from 32% to 19% [2] - Indonesia is seeking exemptions for its exports of palm oil and nickel, along with other commodities like cocoa and rubber [2] - The U.S. is considering imposing tariffs of at least 15% to 20% on any agreements reached with the EU, while maintaining a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 今日周二（7月22日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于787.78附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报785.48元/ 克，上涨0.72%，最高触及787.80元/克，最低下探784.20元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 【要闻速递】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为788元/克至814元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于771元/克 至811元/克。 跨国汽车制造商斯泰兰蒂斯集团表示，受到美国政府加征关税等因素影响，该集团在今年上半年面临23 亿欧元（约合193亿元人民币）亏损。斯泰兰蒂斯集团拥有菲亚特、标致、克莱斯勒和吉普等汽车品 牌。该集团表示，旗下汽车品牌在北美市场的销量持续下滑，其中今年第二季度销量同比下降25%。对 此，斯泰兰蒂斯集团表示，美关税政策是北美市场销量大幅下降的主要因素。美国政府于今年4月3日宣 布对进口汽车加征25%关税，斯泰兰蒂斯集团同一天宣布暂停在墨西哥和加拿大一些装配工厂的生产， 同时在美国密歇根州和印第安纳州暂时解雇900名工人。 据报道，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆21日在例行晨间记者会上，就美国交通部最新制裁作出强硬回应 ...

近期，据证券时报消息，美国在国际舞台上动作频频，为了达成自身目的使出不少手段。可从当前局势 来看，这些招数效果不佳。美国对中国的关税施压已经持续了一段时间。据海关总署副署长王令浚通 报，受美国所谓"对等关税"影响，中美贸易第二季度同比下降20.8%，上半年我国对美国进出口总值 2.08万亿元，同比下降9.3%，出口和进口也分别有不同程度下降。 不过6月份中美贸易有所回升，进出口值从5月份不到3000亿元回升到超过3500亿元，同比降幅明显收 窄。这说明中美经贸合作的韧性还在，互利共赢的本质没有变。可美国似乎没意识到这一点，还在继续 搞关税这套。特朗普给不少国家送上"关税函"，对欧盟、墨西哥追加30%关税，对加拿大扬言加征至 35%，这种做法不仅没给美国带来好处，反而让美国的市场和信任受损。《华盛顿邮报》就刊文称，贸 易壁垒这条路会导致美国真正衰落。 特朗普（资料图） 在挑拨中国与其他国家关系上，美国也没闲着。美国国务院官员米尼翁接受日本媒体采访时，提醒东盟 国家不要依赖中国，还称美国最终会跟各国保持公平的贸易。可实际情况是，特朗普对东盟下了重手， 泰国、柬埔寨被征36%的关税，缅甸高达40%，菲律宾也被征20 ...

特朗普（资料图） 特朗普口中的"欺诈"，指向的是美联储总部建筑翻新项目。本月2日，特朗普政府翻出旧账，以"存在政 治立场偏差""在国会作虚假陈述"为由，要求国会调查鲍威尔，还说他在接受质询时隐瞒事实、态度消 极，该"免职追责"。据《华尔街日报》报道，这个翻新项目2017年获批，2022年启动最新工程，到2023 年预算从19亿美元涨到了近25亿美元。不过路透社说，目前没证据显示鲍威尔涉嫌欺诈，美联储也否认 了豪华装修的指控。 而且美国联邦最高法院5月22日有过相关裁决，美联储官员不能因为政策分歧被解雇，只有渎职或玩忽 职守等情况才能被解职。这已经不是特朗普第一次因为鲍威尔引发市场动荡了。几个月来，他一直要求 美联储降息，说美国政府为债务支付的利息太高。4月21日，他再度施压降息，当天美国就遭遇了股汇 债"三杀"。第二天他改口说"无意"解除鲍威尔职务，市场情绪才稍微缓和。特朗普觉得当前4.3%左右的 基准利率太高，应该降到3%以下。 特朗普（资料图） 可鲍威尔多次表示，货币政策调整还得观望，要先判断关税对通胀和经济走势的影响。美国政府15日公 布，6月消费者价格指数同比涨幅是2月以来最大的。《纽约时报》认为，这 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the evolving dynamics of the U.S. economy, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation, with June CPI data reflecting these influences. The overall market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path remain stable, with anticipated rate cuts in September and December [6][7]. Market Trends - Domestic market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,559.79, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 11,007.49, up 0.86% [4]. - In the U.S. market, major indices exhibited mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.07%, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.51% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.59% [6]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The report notes a decline in initial jobless claims to 221,000, continuing a five-week downward trend. The June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.67%, up from 2.38%, indicating a rebound influenced by tariffs, particularly in used car prices and imported goods [6][7]. - The analysis suggests limited further increases in tariffs due to insufficient economic fundamentals to absorb negative impacts, with expectations that the inflationary effects of tariffs will diminish by the third quarter [6]. Currency and Credit Dynamics - The report discusses the historical evolution of the U.S. dollar's credit anchor, transitioning from the gold standard to a debt-driven economy, highlighting the challenges faced by the dollar in maintaining its value amidst increasing debt and geopolitical uncertainties [9][10]. - Short-term outlook for the dollar indicates a weak and volatile trend, with potential for structural depreciation in the medium term due to diverging monetary policies and fiscal sustainability concerns [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Emerging market equities and bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with expectations of foreign capital inflows boosting stock prices, particularly in domestic demand-driven sectors. Bonds are expected to benefit from a rebalancing of dollar assets [10]. - The report emphasizes the continued importance of gold as an investment, recommending accumulation during price corrections, supported by factors such as a weak dollar and central bank demand for diversification [10].