2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观因素影响，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观因素影响，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：电煤疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 8 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating and weak, and intraday is oscillating and strong, with a reference view of running strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, increasing raw material output and new rubber supply. After the May Day holiday, the downstream tire industry's operating rate is in a stage of recovery, and procurement demand is expected to increase. During the holiday, the Japanese rubber futures rose 1.27%, but international oil prices tumbled. With the recovery of domestic tire enterprises' operating rates after the holiday, demand factors strengthened, boosting the rubber price to stabilize and rebound. On Tuesday night, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 0.68% to 14,910 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating and weak, and intraday is oscillating and strong, with a reference view of running strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ oil - producing countries agreed to continue to accelerate production increase in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the release of bearish sentiment on the first day after the holiday, international crude oil futures prices rebounded on Tuesday night, driving the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract to rise slightly. The futures price rose 1.11% to 11,435 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable trend on Wednesday [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides views and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, log, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). The overall market shows a mixed trend, with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and some to have potential investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost collapse may lead to a post-holiday price decline. Suggest a long PX and short SC strategy. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and the de-stocking rate may slow down [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short SC strategy. Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and the de-stocking pattern continues. Consider a 6 - 9 positive spread operation [9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short MEG strategy. Supply will continue to increase, and port inventory de-stocking is difficult [9]. Rubber - Expected to trade in a range. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and price differentials [10][11]. Synthetic Rubber - Expected to face downward pressure and trade in a range. Although the valuation provides some support, the driving force is downward due to the decline in crude oil prices during the holiday [14][16]. Asphalt - Expected to weaken following oil prices, with the crack spread likely to continue to recover. Current production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory shows a mixed trend [17][29]. LLDPE - The trend is weak. Trade war impacts and high supply with weak demand are the main factors. New capacity is expected to be put into operation, and demand from downstream industries is limited [30][31]. PP - Prices have slightly declined, and trading volume has decreased. The market is weakly sorted, and downstream demand is flat after pre-holiday stocking [34][35]. Caustic Soda - Expected to trade in a range in the short term but face pressure later. Demand is in the off-season, and supply reduction is needed to balance the market [37][38]. Pulp - Expected to trade in a wide range. Port inventory is at a relatively high level, and downstream demand has not improved significantly [42][44]. Log - Expected to trade weakly in a range. The number of incoming ships and the volume of incoming goods have decreased [47][51]. Methanol - Expected to operate weakly. The market is in a pattern of high domestic production, high imports, high profits, and gradually increasing inventory [52][55]. Urea - Expected to trade in a range with increased support at the lower end. Production enterprise inventory may decline, and the futures market is expected to be volatile [57][58]. Styrene - Expected to trade weakly. The pure benzene market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and downstream negative feedback is expected to be transmitted [60][61]. Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. The market is expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term, with stable production and weak downstream demand [63][65]. LPG - The support from crude oil is weakening. Pay attention to the inter-month positive spread strategy. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in production capacity utilization [67][74]. PVC - Expected to trade weakly. High production and high inventory structure are difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the market is under pressure from supply and demand [76][77]. Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The external spot price has dropped significantly, and the short-term trend is expected to weaken further. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has slightly corrected following crude oil, and the spread between high and low sulfur in the external market has widened [80]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to trade at a low level in a range. Hold a light short position in the 10 - 12 reverse spread [82].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a bullish trend for gold, with a significant price increase of nearly $100 observed during the holiday period, suggesting that pullbacks present buying opportunities [2][4] - The highest price reached was 3338, and the bullish momentum is expected to continue, with key resistance levels identified at 3370 and 3420, which are crucial for further upward movement [4][5] - The daily chart shows a strong bullish candle, indicating potential upward movement towards the upper Bollinger Band around 3500, suggesting a large upward space [4] Group 2 - For the H4 timeframe, support is noted around 3310, with buying opportunities suggested if a pullback occurs, while targets are set at 3352 and 3370 [5] - Domestic gold futures (沪金) are currently trading around 797, with a bullish outlook after a prior decline, and potential targets above 820 are indicated [5][6] - International silver is showing a clear trend, with support at 31.5 and a focus on buying opportunities around 32, with targets set at 33 and 34 [5][6] Group 3 - Domestic silver futures (沪银) are currently at 8340, with a bullish outlook and targets set at 8400 and 8450, indicating a potential for further upward movement [6] - International crude oil is experiencing adjustments, with a focus on a potential rebound from 55, while the overall long-term trend remains bearish [6] - Domestic fuel oil futures (燃油) are suggested for buying above 2550, with upward targets set at 2700 and 2800, indicating a significant upward trend potential [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend. The short - term view is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is volatile and weak, and the overall reference view is a strong - side operation [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Price Movement and Core Logic - The methanol 2509 contract shows a volatile trend in the short - term, is volatile and weak in the medium - term, and is volatile and strong on the day. The overall view is a strong - side operation because the positive factors prevail [1]. - The high production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol this year has led to high methanol operating rates and weekly output during the spring maintenance period, resulting in significant internal supply pressure. However, the slow loading of methanol cargoes in the Middle East has alleviated the pressure on domestic port methanol inventories, and the inventory reduction rhythm is smooth. The profit of downstream olefin futures has recovered, and the demand factor is gradually increasing. After the May Day holiday, affected by the US's increased economic sanctions on Iran and a slight rise in natural gas futures prices, the domestic methanol 2509 futures contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend [5]. b. Price Calculation Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price on the same day, and the price increase or decrease is calculated based on these [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is a volatile and weak trend, an increase of 0 - 1% is a volatile and strong trend, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise [3]. - The volatile and strong/weak trends only apply to the intraday view, and no distinction is made for the short - term and medium - term views [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧加剧，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 2507 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 弱势运行 | 油价大幅下跌，合成胶弱势走低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：国内外天胶产区将陆续进入新一轮割胶旺季，原料产出稳步增长，新胶 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 05 月 06 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：仍处于磨底阶段 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 【综合快讯】 1. 美国 4 月非农就业人数增加 17.7 万，预估为增加 13.8 万，前值为增加 22.8 万。美国上周首次申领失 业救济人数为 24.1 万人，为 2025 年 2 月 22 日当周以来新高，预期 22.4 万人。（我的钢铁网） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 19910 | -20 | 50 | -670 | -2୧0 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20035 | l | ー | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2470 | રૂટ | 27 | -80 | -211 | | ...

2025 年 05 月 06 日 铅：需求偏弱，短期承压 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16840 | -0.33% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1931.5 | -1.30% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 34434 | 2654 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3716 | 901 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 36106 | -437 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 146740 | -324 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | -15 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -15.21 | -5.96 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -40 | -30 | 进口升贴 ...

2025 年 05 月 06 日 尿素：震荡运行，下方支撑增加 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,857 | 1,735 | 122 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,845 | 1,748 | 9 7 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 996,468 | 313,145 | 683323 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 213,194 | 210,028 | 3166 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 4,859 | 4,999 | -140 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 3,677,820 | 1,094,533 | 2583288 | | | 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -7 | 6 5 | -72 | | | 基 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -87 | -87 | 0 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Short after a rebound [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [4] Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) released at the end of April showed a decline in nickel prices. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decrease after May. Demand support from downstream nickel sulfate and profit thresholds of external procurement manufacturers have both declined. Stainless steel production cuts are less likely. Despite a short - term rebound in nickel prices, the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged [1][2]. Zinc - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) predicts a surplus of refined zinc in 2025. The supply side is generally loosening, while the demand side is likely to weaken, with a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long term [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro & Industry News - **Nickel**: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) released the latest INPI on April 28. The price of nickel pig iron (NPI) decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the prices of high - grade nickel matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) also declined [1]. - **Zinc**: The ILZSG expects a surplus of 93,000 tons of refined zinc in 2025. Global refined zinc demand is expected to grow by 1% to 13.64 million tons, and production will increase by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons. Zinc ore production is expected to grow by 4.3% to 12.43 million tons [4]. Supply - **Nickel**: Indonesia increased mining royalties on the 26th, and the price of nickel ore is firm. Although the total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month, it remains at a historically high level. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline [1]. - **Zinc**: Mining enterprise profits have shrunk, but the TC price has not declined, and imports at the mine end have significantly improved. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level. The possibility of production cuts at the supply side is extremely low, and the supply is generally loosening [4]. Demand - **Nickel**: The cost of nickel in the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans is around 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. Stainless steel production cuts are less likely [2]. - **Zinc**: The "Golden March and Silver April" peak demand season is coming to an end. Galvanizing production enthusiasm is low, and the demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline. Die - casting alloy and zinc oxide markets also show weak demand [5]. Conclusion - **Nickel**: Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, the situation is changing from tight to loose, and there is a surplus in the medium - to - long term, with a bearish outlook [5]. Operation Suggestions - **Nickel**: Short [2] - **Zinc**: Wait for an opportunity to short; if there is no rebound, the downside space is limited [6]