Core Insights - Gold prices have become a focal point in global markets, rising from $2080 per ounce in early 2024 to over $3255 in April 2025, driven by multiple factors [1] Group 1: Safe-Haven Demand - The uncertainty in global economic recovery and frequent geopolitical conflicts have heightened safe-haven demand for gold, making it a core driver of price increases [3] - Events such as U.S. military actions in Yemen and drone attacks on Russian oil facilities have further escalated market anxiety, prompting investors to shift funds into gold [3] Group 2: Erosion of Dollar Credibility - The status of the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve currency is being challenged due to high national debt and fiscal deficits, alongside uncertainties in Federal Reserve monetary policy [4] - Rising inflation expectations and declining real interest rates pressure the returns on dollar-denominated assets, enhancing gold's appeal as a global asset [4] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with purchases exceeding 1000 tons from 2023 to 2024, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025 [6] - Central banks are bolstering their currencies with gold reserves, further driving demand and price increases [6] Group 4: Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy - Changes in U.S. economic inflation data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts are providing support for gold prices [7] - In 2025, the Fed is in a rate-cutting cycle, with persistent high inflation contributing to a downward trend in real interest rates, which benefits gold [7] Group 5: De-Dollarization Trend - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend, exacerbated by divisive policies, is amplifying gold's volatility and enhancing its strategic position as an alternative reserve asset [8] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a core asset for diversification in investment portfolios [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite gold prices being at historical highs, the underlying logic for price increases remains intact, supported by ongoing central bank demand and short-term safe-haven needs [9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with extreme scenarios suggesting a potential rise above $4500 per ounce [9]

好的啊那我差不多开始直播了啊 我们来看一下这个直播声音还有画面是不是都正常啊我们来看一下啊好的啊咱们看这个直播 是已经是有画面了啊大家看一下这个声音是不是正常啊正常的话也可以在咱们这个时候这个下方去评论一下啊 好的感觉这听上去都正常的那么各位投资朋友们大家下午好欢迎来到咱们狗草影的直播间我是本次的主播同一那怎么非常开心和大家又能够在直播间见面了那么今天讲的是白银相关的这样子的一个专题的一个直播今天咱们这个直播的主题是说白银为什么可以持续的有反弹那其实呢我们说 这个包括我们说像这个今天也就是这个2025年的这个3月18号啊我们也能够发现啊这个根据万德水来去看啊像我说黄金啊近期也有这个气候黄金他是突破了一个啊近期的一个新高的这样子的一个状态那么呢其实像啊这个我们的这个 他去看我们这个白银的时候呢大家也会去拿它去和黄金一起去看啊或者想到就是说毕竟我说白银也是属于贵金属的品种啊那么我们说在黄金存在这个风险高的时候其实我们也能够发现白银近期的一个表现也是相当来说可圈可点的 那么我们在接下来的直播当中我们会去和大家啊关于这个近期白银的一个行业走势包括我们近期马上就要发生了一件大事啊也就是我们说这个美联储的一个三月份的一个 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the volatility of precious metal prices has increased, prompting banks to issue risk warnings to investors regarding precious metal investments [1][2][4] - Construction Bank has repeatedly issued similar warnings throughout the year, indicating a significant rise in market risk associated with precious metals [4][6] - Several banks have raised the minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation business, thereby increasing the barriers for individual investors [8] Group 2 - On April 14, the spot gold price reached a new historical high of $3,245 per ounce, reflecting a continuous rise in international gold prices [9] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,300 to $3,700 per ounce, marking a 12% increase, which is the most aggressive adjustment by the firm this year [10] - The World Gold Council reported an increase in global central bank gold reserves by 24 tons in February, driven by concerns over U.S. economic growth and rising inflation [11]

SP Angel：黄金期货下跌，但因美元走弱和避险需求，保持在历史高位 金十数据4月14日讯，黄金期货价格下滑，但在避险需求和美元疲软的推动下保持在历史高位附近。SP Angel分析师在一份报告中说，ETF资金流入激增、美元走软，以及投资者在市场动荡中转向避险资 产，这些因素支撑了金价。SP Angel说，美国长期国债的大幅抛售也可能引发了更多的黄金购买。SP Angel写道，黄金和美国国债通常会争夺避险地位，鉴于对美国经济的担忧，投资者可能会削减美国国 债头寸，转而买入黄金。 ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds and asset managers are increasingly optimistic about the Japanese yen, with long positions reaching the highest level since 2006, driven by a reassessment of the Bank of Japan's interest rate path and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to U.S. tariffs [1] - The yen appreciated by 2.3% against the dollar last week, reaching its highest level since September of the previous year, as investors anticipate that the trade war initiated by Trump may negatively impact global economic growth [1] - Speculative traders have shifted to shorting the dollar, marking the most bearish sentiment towards the dollar since October of the previous year, as the environment favors safe-haven currencies like the yen [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, expressed uncertainty regarding tariffs but reiterated that the bank would consider raising interest rates if the economic outlook improves, with a 48% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year [2] - Japan is set to begin high-stakes trade negotiations with the Trump administration, which could set the tone for other countries seeking relief from U.S. tariffs [2][3] - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized the importance of not rushing negotiations and the need to address national security issues, indicating that Japan may seek favorable treatment in trade discussions [3] Group 3 - Japan has received a 90-day reprieve on 24% of reciprocal tariffs, but 10% baseline tariffs and 25% tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum remain in effect, with Japan previously seeking exemptions without success [3] - The upcoming negotiations will cover various topics, including automobiles, agricultural products, non-tariff barriers, and foreign exchange, with Japan's Finance Minister indicating a cautious approach to discussing currency matters [3][4]

数据来源：Wind 【多重利好支撑金价上行，全球实物黄金ETF一季度流入额创历史第二高纪录】 【国际金价续创历史新高，金饰价格突破1000元/克】 消息面上，受国际金价继续上涨影响，国内各金饰品牌挂牌价格也随之攀升至历史新高。上周末，不少 商家金饰普遍每克涨了30多元，最高突破1000元/克。 4月11日，国际黄金价格再创历史新高。截至收盘，伦敦现货黄金报3238.07美元/盎司，上涨1.97%； COMEX黄金报3254.90美元/盎司，上涨2.44%。今年以来，伦敦现货黄金、COMEX黄金累计涨幅分别 达23.39%、23.32%。 相关ETF方面，2025年4月14日早盘，上海金ETF(518600)涨超1%，延续近期上涨态势。拉长时间看， 截至2025年4月10日，上海金ETF近1周累计上涨2.29%。 份额方面，上海金ETF最新份额达1.90亿份，创近1年新高。从资金净流入方面来看，上海金ETF近12 天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得7747.08万元净流入，合计"吸金"4.18亿元，日均净流入达 3482.97万元。 | 7.227 +0.073 +1.02% | | | | 上海金ETF ① ...

作 者丨尹华禄 编 辑丨陈思颖 图源丨摄图网 随着国际金价站上3 2 0 0美元/盎司关口，国内金饰价格也升至历史高位。 4月11日，周生生足金饰品价格达到9 9 1元/克，周大福足金、周六福足金9 9 9的饰品价 格均为9 9 0元/克， 周六福足金9 9 9 . 9价格则达到1 0 1 0元/克 。金投网显示，今年1月2 日，周生生每克黄金报价8 0 3元，据此计算，金饰涨价超2 0 0元/克。 值得一提的是，现货黄金和COMEX黄金于4月7日均一度跌破3 0 0 0美元关口。当时，周生生 足金饰品标价为9 1 2元/克，短短四日内累计涨近8 0元。 | N 足铂999 | IVIV 406 | | --- | --- | | 企业礼金条 | 980 | | 投资金条 | 866 | 黄金概念股和相关ETF均表现不俗。 4月11日上午收盘，黄金板块集体走高，四川黄金涨停，赤峰黄金、西部黄金、湖南黄金等跟 涨。截至1 4 : 1 8，以上个股涨幅有所收窄。 | 四川黄金 | 25.88 | 7.83% | 1.88 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 001337.SZ | | | ...

【机构观点分析】 瑞达期货：全球去美元化趋势逐渐显露凸显黄金配置价值 申银万国期货：政策和市场的不确定性继续推升黄金 混沌天成期货：长期的美元信用和债务逻辑驱动仍旧驱动贵金属的强势 FXStreet：避险需求推涨金价但降息押注下降限制涨幅 世界黄金协会：经济不确定下黄金需求激增目前金价的涨势基本面更加稳固 （文章来源：新华财经） 瑞达期货表示，市场避险情绪支撑金价强势运行并续创历史新高。市场对于美债供应担忧加剧叠加美国 政府信用风险攀升，美元反弹动能受到抑制，全球去美元化趋势逐渐显露，凸显黄金配置价值。受消息 面驱动，市场风险偏好抬升，流动性紧缺边际缓解，助推金银价格上行。黄金在降息预期提振以及央行 持续购金的支撑下或维持其强劲上行趋势，中长期逢低布局逻辑不变。 申银万国期货表示，政策和市场的不确定性继续推升黄金。此前特朗普所谓"对等关税"把金银等贵金属 排除在关税之外，令由持续性的价差套利导致的现货挤兑缓解，呈现价格的回补。此外市场进一步计价 衰退逻辑，全球动荡加剧。后续市场的主要指引来自于市场形成对特朗普关税政策更为明确的预期、各 国的政策反制／谈判走向、美国经济是否会显露更多实质性的衰退信号、美联储政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in gold prices due to rising geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, leading to heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On April 9, gold prices surged, with spot gold rising over 2% and reaching a peak of $3052 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 2.62% to $3068.5 per ounce [4][1]. - Year-to-date, both spot gold and COMEX gold futures have seen an increase of over 16%, outperforming major global stock indices [4][1]. - The rise in gold prices reflects investor anxiety over tariff threats and potential changes in global trade rules [4][1]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trade tensions are contributing to an increasingly uncertain global economic outlook, with rising raw material costs expected to drive inflation in the U.S. [2][5]. - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. government is projected to increase the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index by 1.7% in the short term, with potential further increases if other countries retaliate [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding global tariff policies is expected to bolster demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Group 3: Gold ETF Inflows - In the first quarter of the year, gold-backed ETFs saw a net inflow of 226.5 tons, valued at $21.1 billion, marking the largest quarterly inflow in three years [7][1]. - The total holdings in gold ETFs increased by 3% to 3445.3 tons by the end of March, the highest level since May 2023 [7][1]. - The majority of the inflows came from the U.S. and Europe, with U.S.-listed gold ETFs leading with an inflow of 133.8 tons [7][1]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Analysts believe that the long-term logic for rising gold prices remains intact, driven by increased inflation and economic uncertainty due to tariffs [5][6]. - The potential for stagflation in the U.S. economy, coupled with high inflation and slowing growth, is expected to strengthen the case for gold as an investment [6][5]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank demand for gold are anticipated to support a bullish outlook for gold prices [6][8].

周二（4月8日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元下跌1.09%，报146.23日元，日内交投区间为148.12-145.97日 元。 美元兑瑞郎下跌1.25%，报0.8483；欧元兑瑞郎跌1.00%，报0.92861。 欧元兑日元跌0.68%，报160.21日元；英镑兑日元跌0.71%，报186.828日元。 ...