2025 年 12 月 10 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.45%报 112.590 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.12%报 107.980 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 105.785 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.430 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 9 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1173 亿 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车-2025-12-10 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The structural surplus is changing, but the game contradictions remain unchanged [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand continue to operate weakly, and the cost - support logic is strengthening [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Spot trading remains light, and it shows a weak and volatile trend [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the subsequent environmental protection situation in Xinjiang [2]. - Polysilicon: With the establishment of the platform company, the trading strategy for the market is mainly to buy on dips [2][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,350 yuan, down 680 yuan from the previous trading day; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract was 12,500 yuan, down 10 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 102,410 lots; that of stainless - steel's main contract was 127,287 lots. Other data on electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel products also showed different degrees of changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mine area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. The Indonesian government imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and new regulations on RKAB approval were issued [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 91,000 yuan, down 2,060 yuan; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 92,800 yuan, down 2,040 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts also changed significantly. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 92,649 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [9][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As the price of lithium carbonate soars, listed companies are accelerating the layout of sodium - ion batteries. Sodium batteries and lithium batteries are in a synergistic and complementary relationship [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 8,340 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan; the closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,610 yuan/ton, up 1,065 yuan. The trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory data of industrial silicon and polysilicon also showed different trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 55.8 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to the previous period [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "Research and Application Project on Key Technologies for Improving the Quality of Polysilicon Powder" of Shaanxi Non - ferrous Tianhong Ruike Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance, and the purity of its polysilicon powder products was successfully stabilized at the 7N level [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [15].

国信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，在新能源需求快速释放下，硫酸需求保持中速增长，同时带 动硫磺需求增长，导致全球硫磺供需偏紧。硫磺制酸几乎是所有头部磷肥企业首选的制酸工艺。硫磺制 酸对保证硫酸供应意义重大。目前我国硫酸-硫磺产业链景气度较高，在全球供需偏紧、海外合同价格 不断走高情况下，国内硫磺价格有望进一步上涨。 硫磺主要伴生于油气开采及炼化，未来油气消费增速下降，同时明年高硫原油产量预计下降，全球硫磺 产量增速预期较低 硫磺主要在油气生产及炼化过程伴生，硫磺产量与化石能源消费紧密相关。主流机构均预测明年原油消 费增速较低，仅约1%。IEA预测，今年全年天然气消费增速为1.3%，明年天然气消费增速预计为2%。 全球高硫原油主要产区为中东，OPEC近期决定于2026年一季度暂停增产，并且部分国家提交了额外减 产计划。伊朗受美国制裁，原油产量不断下降。油气需求增速较低，高硫原油产量预期下降，全球硫磺 产量预计低速增长。俄罗斯本为全球第二大硫磺生产国，今年来其炼厂持续受袭，直接影响了气硫磺的 生产和出口，加剧硫磺供应紧张。 2024年中国硫磺产量为1106.74万吨，进口量为995. ...

近期，据专业光伏网站"索比光伏"统计，今年以来，多个省区废止光伏指标项目达80个，规模超 11GW，涉中核、三峡、国家能源、华能、华电、国电投、晋能控股、 广东电力 等多家能源央企及地 方国企。 央企为何会"中断项目"？有能源央企内部人士对《能见派》表示，实行市场定价后，很多光伏项目收益 有所下降，企业不仅需要满足资本金内部收益率的硬性要求，还需承担非技术成本，这使得光伏项目前 景蒙上阴影。 收益率不能低于6.5%？ 据公开信息统计，光伏项目遭原中标业主放弃指标以云南省尤为集中，项目总规模超800MW，业主涉 及中核、 广东能源集团 、 国家能源集团 、 京能集团 、 中国能建 等。还有 中核汇能 勐丙、安龙堡两 项目合计14.5万kW，于11月15日在昆明交易中心挂牌转让，挂牌价1元/ kW，附带负债3.4亿元。 当前风电、集中式光伏项目指标的获取，要么通过竞争性配置争夺，要么借助源网荷储等市场化模式申 报。无论采用何种方式，电力企业均需投入高额前期开发成本，涵盖项目调研、方案设计、资质申报等 多个环节。一旦退出，前期投入都是沉没成本。 即便如此，为什么会有这么多开发企业"忍痛割肉"？ "国资委的要求是资本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wanma Co., Ltd. focuses on three main business areas: electric wires and cables, new materials, and new energy [1] Group 1: Business Overview - The company has a product line in the new energy sector that includes charging piles and charging stack products ranging from 7kW to 960kW [1] - The product offerings include high-power integrated and split DC charging piles, wall-mounted AC charging piles, and smart AC charging piles [1] - The company provides charging services for new energy vehicles and has expanded into operation and maintenance services [1] Group 2: Product Applications - The electric wire and cable products are applicable in smart grid-related fields [1]

Industry Updates - The National Energy Administration projects that China's crude oil production is expected to reach 215 million tons by 2025, marking a historical high. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the country has added 105 million tons of new crude oil capacity, with offshore oil contributing over 60% of the new production for five consecutive years [2] - The first national-level continental shale oil demonstration zone in China, located in Xinjiang, has achieved an oil output of over 1.7 million tons this year, completing its construction tasks. The shale oil reservoir presents significant technical challenges due to its depth and low permeability [3] - The first intelligent autonomous control system for gas turbine power generation in China has been successfully put into operation, marking a transition to smart autonomous operation in thermal power generation [3] - Sichuan Province is soliciting opinions on the implementation details for green electricity direct connection projects, aiming for a self-consumption ratio of at least 60% of total available power generation by 2030 [4] - Jiangsu Province has completed its first batch of intelligent orderly charging pilot communities, enhancing the synergy between new energy vehicles and the new power system [4] Company News - The first gas turbine unit of the Sichuan Huadian Neijiang Gas Turbine Innovation Development Demonstration Project has officially commenced power generation, contributing to energy supply during the winter peak [7] - The East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project, undertaken by a Chinese company, has completed 581 kilometers of mainline welding, reaching a completion rate of 96.5%, and is entering the final stages of construction [7] Market Performance - In November, the production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.757 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, with a cumulative production of 13.788 million units from January to November, reflecting a growth of 28.6% [5]

天眼查App显示，近日，河北光启智能光伏科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为陈聪，注册资本500万人 民币，经营范围为一般项目：技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广;企业 管理;光电子器件制造;电力电子元器件销售;电子元器件制造;光伏设备及元器件制造;太阳能发电技术服 务;新能源原动设备销售;电子专用材料销售;半导体器件专用设备制造;金属材料销售;环境保护专用设备 制造;环境监测专用仪器仪表销售;软件开发;信息技术咨询服务;自然科学研究和试验发展;发电技术服务; 实验分析仪器销售（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：检验检 测服务（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以批准文件或许可 证件为准）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company held a Q3 2025 earnings presentation on December 9, 2025, to provide insights into its operational results and financial status, emphasizing its commitment to innovation and market expansion in both traditional and new energy sectors [1]. Group 1: Earnings Presentation Overview - The earnings presentation was conducted via the Shanghai Stock Exchange's online platform, featuring participation from the company's chairman and key executives [1]. - The meeting aimed to address investor inquiries regarding the company's performance and future strategies [1]. Group 2: Investor Questions and Company Responses - The company plans to continue focusing on its core engine business while accelerating the development of new energy products such as hybrid, hydrogen fuel cells, and electric drive systems [2]. - The subsidiary Yuanjun Hydrogen is currently in the testing and trial production phase for hydrogen fuel cell systems, with no commercial application yet [2]. - The company aims to enhance its product structure and quality, expand market share, and explore overseas markets as potential growth areas for 2025 and beyond [2][3]. - The company is committed to technological innovation, increasing R&D efforts, and optimizing product performance across various energy types, including traditional and clean energy [2]. - To improve profitability, the company is focusing on market expansion, internal management enhancement, and cost reduction strategies [3].

Group 1 - Longhua District announced the establishment of a hundred billion-level strategic emerging industry fund cluster, with the two largest funds each having a total scale of 2 billion yuan, namely the Deep Capital Jianxin Longhua AIC Fund and the Deep Guarantee Agricultural Bank Longhua AIC Fund [1] - The fund cluster will focus on key sectors such as digital economy, new energy, high-end medical devices, integrated circuits, and artificial intelligence, aligning with Shenzhen's "20+8" industrial cluster and Longhua's "1+2+3" industrial system [1] - The Deep Guarantee Agricultural Bank Longhua AIC Fund has completed the signing of its first batch of intended investment projects, which include high-quality potential listed companies in the fields of liquid cooling heat dissipation, precision laser equipment, and automated testing equipment [1] Group 2 - Longhua District is enhancing its inclusive financial support for specialized, innovative, and high-growth startups, having provided credit support of 160 billion yuan to over 31,000 enterprises [2] - A financial matrix service was launched at the conference, offering 100 billion yuan in credit, exclusive financial products, and preferential loan rates tailored for various market entities, including gazelle enterprises, unicorns, specialized and innovative small giants, and manufacturing champions [2]