| ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议低位适度持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 空 01 多 05 套利 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆ ...

AI基金尚正新能源产业混合A（015732）披露2025年半年报，上半年基金利润179.49万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0493元。报告期内，基金净值增长 率为8.47%，截至上半年末，基金规模为2356.47万元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金，长期投资于先进制造股票。截至9月3日，单位净值为0.704元。基金经理是张志梅和石竟成。 基金管理人在半年报中表示，展望未来，我们相信"反内卷"对具备持续技术研发和产品创新能力的企业将是长期的利好，对于引领全球新能源产业发展的诸 多优秀企业而言，当前正处于构筑全球品牌影响力的关键阶段，国内市场竞争格局的优化也将反哺其海外市场的拓展，"内忧"问题缓解的同时，我们也期待 这些企业在海外市场能够获得更好的成长，真正实现企业盈利端的"反内卷"。 投资维度，我们认为除了核聚变等个别颠覆式技术外，围绕构建未来全球低碳能源系统的基本技术要素已经趋于成熟，随着新能源产业的爆发式发展阶段已 经过去，新的发展阶段需要以更适合的投资范式来匹配，我们将在这方面保持探索。 截至9月3日，尚正新能源产业混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为10.96%，位于同类可比基金154/171；近半年复权 ...

中国物流与采购联合会今天公布8月份中国大宗商品价格指数。从指数运行情况看，指数连续4个月环比 上升，大宗商品市场延续稳定增长的态势，经济内生增长动力进一步增强。 8月份中国大宗商品价格指数为111.7点，环比上涨0.3%。在中国物流与采购联合会重点监测的50种大宗 商品中，8月份价格环比上涨的大宗商品有25种。其中，焦炭、氧化镨钕和碳酸锂涨幅居前，较上月分 别上涨20.1%、19.1%和16.6%。 分行业看，装备制造、高技术制造继续保持快速增长，带动部分行业价格回升。8月份黑色价格指数延 续反弹，环比上涨2.2%；有色价格指数继续上扬，环比上涨0.2%。暑期用能高峰叠加反内卷政策实 施，推动能源价格指数止跌回升，8月份能源价格指数环比上涨2%。 另外，农产品价格指数小幅走低，环比下降0.8%；化工价格指数延续跌势，环比下降1%。受高温多雨 天气影响，下游需求放缓，矿产价格指数继续走低，环比下降1.6%。 中国物流与采购联合会大宗商品流通分会副会长 周旭：在扩内需、反内卷等系列政策效应持续释放 下，企业信心稳步增强，新旧动能加快转换。但当前全球经济不确定性因素仍然较多，部分行业价格仍 处于低位，巩固经济回升向 ...

从具体数据来看，8月份国内纯碱期货价格总体呈现震荡回落态势。7至8月间，纯碱市场经历了一波估 值的快速切换。7月初，以反内卷为核心的供给修复预期推动期货和现货价格连续反弹，市场更多关注 未来的供给修复机会。然而，由于新工艺、新产能的持续投放，产量增加的同时，实际需求因靠近房地 产等传统行业而表现疲软，供需差距逐渐显现。因此，7月末市场走势转为先涨后跌。 进入8月，市场驱动因素逐渐从预期转向现实。现货价格回落促进了供给端的收缩，工厂检修数量增 加，行业开工率下降。同时，期货市场上预期因素被逐步挤出，更多聚焦于实际的供需传导过程。尤其 是纯碱现货库存有所消化后，盘面价格下跌速度放缓。下游玻璃需求的短期反弹也加速了纯碱去库速 度。截至上周，纯碱生产企业库存与高点相比下降了约15万吨，为9月份的消费季节奠定了良好基础。 近期，期货市场关注的焦点之一在于玻璃与纯碱的供需动态及价格走势。薛鹤翔与陆甲明，作为申银万 国期货研究所的知名分析师，对此进行了深入分析。 据两位分析师指出，玻璃市场目前面临供需修复速度放缓的挑战。尽管夏秋之交通常是需求驱动的关键 时期，且国内多项消费支持政策的效果也备受瞩目，但短期内，库存的反弹仍给 ...

晨会纪要（2025/09/05） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.05） 宏观及策略研究 流动性环境将迎改善，市场迎来中期布局窗口——A 股市场 2025 年 9 月投资 策略报告 金融工程研究 主要指数多数上涨，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 金属行业景气向好，关注"反内卷"和降息——金属行业 2025 年半年报综述 轻工纺服半年度业绩均有承压，关注包装纸、出口链修复——轻工制造&纺 织服饰行业 2025 年半年报业绩综述 证 券 创新药和 CXO 表现亮眼，医疗器械仍有承压——医药生物行业 2025 年半年 报业绩综述 研 究 报 告 晨 会 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 8 纪 要 晨会纪要（2025/09/05） 宏观及策略研究 流动性环境将迎改善，市场迎来中期布局窗口——A 股市场 2025 年 9 月投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decrease in revenue for H1 2025, but managed to achieve a slight increase in net profit, indicating stable overall performance despite challenging market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 24.738 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.73% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.38%. Net profit for the quarter was 486 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.04% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.54% [1]. Product Pricing and Cost Dynamics - The prices of polyester products followed the decline in costs, with major products' prices showing year-on-year decreases: POY at 6,160.30 yuan/ton (-9.99%), FDY at 6,464.69 yuan/ton (-15.90%), DTY at 7,688.11 yuan/ton (-9.07%), and PTA at 4,267.54 yuan/ton (-19.11%) [2]. - The procurement prices for key raw materials were PX at 6,040.91 yuan/ton (-18.92%), PTA at 4,284.51 yuan/ton (-18.06%), and MEG at 4,016.97 yuan/ton (+0.71%) [2]. Strategic Expansion - The company successfully expanded into the coal sector by acquiring high-quality coal mine resources in the Turpan region, with reserves of 500 million tons and an initial mining scale of 5 million tons/year [3]. - The coal quality is noted for its high calorific value and low impurities, which will enhance the company's overall production capabilities [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from policy implementations and seasonal demand recovery, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 2.277 billion, 2.750 billion, and 2.965 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.1, 12.5, and 11.6 for the years 2025-2027, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [3].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Changjiang Dividend Return Mixed Fund A (013934) reported a profit of 2.1244 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0144 yuan, and a net asset value growth rate of 2.11% during the period [3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of September 3, the fund's unit net value was 1.034 yuan, with a recent three-month net value growth rate of 4.70%, ranking 573 out of 607 comparable funds [5]. - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 8.01%, ranking 552 out of 607, while the one-year growth rate was 21.28%, ranking 536 out of 604 [5]. - Over the past three years, the fund's net value growth rate was 12.59%, ranking 175 out of 495 [5]. Group 2: Fund Management Insights - The fund manager indicated that the logic of incremental capital is expected to continue, with new structural opportunities represented by "anti-involution" being noteworthy [3]. - The manager emphasized the importance of focusing on high-dividend stocks to contribute excess returns to the fund portfolio [3]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately 9.69 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 33.74 times [11]. - The weighted average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 0.68 times, compared to the industry average of 2.47 times, and the weighted average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was approximately 0.54 times, against an industry average of 2.07 times [11]. Group 4: Growth Metrics - For the first half of 2025, the fund's weighted average revenue growth rate was -0.07%, and the weighted average net profit growth rate was -0.1% [17]. - The weighted annualized return on equity was 0.07% [17]. Group 5: Fund Composition and Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had a total of 2,098 holders, with a total of 127 million shares held [33]. - The top ten holdings included China Shenhua, Everbright Bank, Minsheng Bank, China Ping An, Industrial Bank, China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Bank, China Railway Construction, China State Construction, and Kweichow Moutai [37].

化工板块今日（9月5日）开盘猛攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）盘中迅速拉升，场内 价格涨幅一度达到2.13%，截至发稿，涨1.7%。 展望后市，中原证券表示，随着化工行业反内卷整治的进一步深入，部分子行业产能重复建设、无序过 度竞争的局面有望缓解，迎来景气的阶段性好转。2025年9月份建议关注农药、有机硅、涤纶长丝、煤 化工和轻烃化工行业。 注：细分化工指数近 5 个完整年度收益率分别为 2020 年： 51.68% ； 2021 年： 15.72% ； 2022 年： -26.89% ； 2023 年： -23.17% ； 2024 年： -3.83% 。标的指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调 整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。 中国银河证券表示，供给端，近几年化工行业资本开支及在建产能增速趋于放缓，但预计存量产能及在 建产能仍需时间消化。需求端，下半年随政策刺激效果逐渐显现、终端产业回暖动能逐步转强，内需潜 力有望充分释放。看好下半年化工品的结构性机会及行业估值修复空间。 东方证券指出，随着各方面关于"反内卷"政策的解读逐渐丰富，市场对于政策的理解也不断深入。其认 为"反内卷" ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 5 日） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 偏空因素堆积，焦煤高位回调 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1180.0 元/吨， ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline on Thursday, with sectors such as consumption, photovoltaic equipment, banking, and securities performing well, while aerospace, communication equipment, semiconductors, and electronic chemicals lagged behind [1][2] - The current A-share market is benefiting from favorable internal and external policies, with abundant liquidity and significant improvement in market funding, as evidenced by trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan for several consecutive days [1] - Global capital is flowing into the A-share market, with a notable shift of household savings towards capital markets, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [1] Group 2 - The market is currently facing a mixed performance, with increased risk aversion among investors leading to notable adjustments in high-priced stocks, while defensive sectors like retail and food are showing resilience [2] - Looking ahead, the market may be transitioning into a phase of consolidation after a period of rapid adjustments, with a recommendation to remain patient and wait for signs of stabilization before re-entering [2] - Key variables to monitor for future market performance include improvements in macroeconomic data, changes in overseas market conditions, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the direction of institutional reallocations following the semi-annual report disclosures [1][2]