Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the overall reference view is "weak operation". Due to the existence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the premium of crude oil has increased. After the previous sharp decline, the confidence of long - positions in the oil market has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. However, 8 major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. After the bearish impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan of the oil - producing country organization is gradually realized, the room for further expansion of production in the future is limited. Against the background of differences between long and short positions in the oil market, on Wednesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained an oscillating and weakening trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.45% to 504.7 yuan per barrel, and it is expected that on Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend. [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil 2509 Contract Views - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation [1] - Intraday: Oscillation and weakening [1] - Reference view: Weak operation [1] Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained an oscillating and weakening trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.45% to 504.7 yuan per barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Thursday. [5] Core Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased the premium of crude oil. After the previous sharp decline, the confidence of long - positions in the oil market has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. 8 major oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. After the bearish impact of the production increase is digested and the original production increase plan is realized, the room for further production expansion is limited. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger, but considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. In the second half of the year, it is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish or neutral approach in the short - term, taking short - long positions on dips and making quick trades. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][12]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has strengthened recently driven by the rebound in the black building materials sector, it will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [14]. - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical influence has subsided, and the BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate following the cost side [18]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the price is expected to remain volatile [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July [21]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in July, and the processing fee is under pressure. The demand side is also under continuous pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the expected inventory reduction at ports will gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period in history, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants and more - than - expected production cuts of domestic plants, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On July 17, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 517.4 yuan. According to the US EIA weekly data, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels to 422.16 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91%; the SPR increased by 0.30 million barrels to 402.70 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%; gasoline inventory increased by 3.40 million barrels to 232.87 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%; diesel inventory increased by 4.17 million barrels to 106.97 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.70 million barrels to 20.14 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 7.77%; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.57 million barrels to 44.81 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.28% [1]. - In terms of market prices, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.11 dollars, a decline of 0.16%, to 66.64 dollars; the Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.15 dollars, a decline of 0.22%, to 68.71 dollars; the INE main crude oil futures fell 0.80 yuan, a decline of 0.15% [7]. Methanol - On July 16, the 09 contract fell 19 yuan/ton to 2367 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15. Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Enterprises still have good profits. Overseas plants' operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and the market has gradually digested the impact on the overseas supply side. Market fluctuations have begun to narrow. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profits have recovered slightly, but the overall level is still low, and the spot valuation of methanol is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is expected to be limited [4]. Urea - On July 16, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47. The domestic operating rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and the cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has bottomed out and rebounded. With the start of autumn fertilizer preparation, the operating rate will further increase, which will support the demand for urea. The export container loading is still ongoing, and the port inventory continues to rise. The subsequent demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger. However, considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. As of July 10, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 78.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.75 (+ 0.23) tons. In terms of spot prices, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 14120 (- 50) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1730 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1735 (- 5) dollars. The butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9300 (- 50) yuan, and the cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11300 (- 100) yuan [9][10][11][12]. PVC - On July 17, 2025, the PVC09 contract fell 41 yuan to 4934 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 94 (+ 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 115 (- 2) yuan/ton. On the cost side, the calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price was 820 (0) dollars/ton. The cost side remained unchanged, and the caustic soda spot price was 840 (0) yuan/ton. This week, the overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%; the ethylene method was 71%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The in - plant inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5), and the social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2) [14]. Styrene - The spot price has decreased, and the futures price has increased, with the basis weakening. Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward correction space. On the cost side, the operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. On the supply side, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory of styrene has increased. It is the off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has declined. In the short - term, the geopolitical influence has subsided, the BZN is expected to recover, and the styrene price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17][18]. Polyethylene - The futures price has decreased. The US has released tariff policies against multiple countries, and the uncertainty of global trade policies has returned. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The inventory of traders has fluctuated at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. It is the off - season, the orders for agricultural films on the demand side have fluctuated at a low level, and the overall operating rate has declined. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [20]. Polypropylene - The futures price has decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually increase, with the marginal supply of propylene returning. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has declined seasonally. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish [21]. PX - On July 17, 2025, the PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6716 yuan, the PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 834 dollars, the basis was 160 (- 58) yuan according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 9 - 1 spread was 98 (+ 16) yuan. In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In terms of plants, there were not many changes in domestic plants. A 21 - ton plant of Idemitsu in Japan was shut down, the plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and the plant in Thailand was under maintenance. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 11.7 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of May was 434.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.5 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 254 dollars (- 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 79 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the short - term, the valuation has been compressed after the Asian supply has returned and the polyester load has entered the off - season. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23][24]. PTA - On July 17, 2025, the PTA09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4706 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 5 yuan to 4720 yuan, the basis was 11 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 50 (+ 10) yuan. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. As of July 11, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 217.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA increased by 25 yuan to 210 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 8 yuan to 300 yuan. In the future, on the supply side, the maintenance volume in July is small, and there are new plants being commissioned, with continuous inventory accumulation expected, and the PTA processing fee is under pressure. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester fibers has increased, and the production of bottle - chips has been reduced. Overall, the demand side is under continuous pressure. In terms of valuation, the PXN is expected to be supported under the expectation of improved patterns brought by PTA commissioning. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. Ethylene Glycol - On July 17, 2025, the EG09 contract rose 29 yuan to 4351 yuan, the spot price in East China fell 8 yuan to 4400 yuan, the basis was 70 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was 2 (+ 16) yuan. On the supply side, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. Among them, the operating rate of syngas - based production was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.8%; the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 64.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. In terms of syngas - based plants, Hongsifang and Tianying restarted; in terms of oil - chemical plants, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load; overseas, the Sharq plant in the Jubail area of Saudi Arabia shut down and reduced its load again due to power problems. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. The forecast of imported arrivals at ports was 4.5 tons, and the departure from East China ports on July 15 was 0.9 tons, with a decrease in outgoing inventory. The port inventory was 55.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 485 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 938 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 530 yuan. In terms of industrial fundamentals

近期波动原因 来源：赛博AI实验室 截至2025年7月16日，金价呈现震荡下行趋势，市场多空因素交织。以下是综合分析及关键要点： 一、当前金价动态 国际与国内价格 国际金价：现货黄金报3325.56美元/盎司（同比下跌0.54%），纽约期金收于3336.7美元/盎司，周内跌 幅扩大至0.67%。 国内金价：上海黄金T+D报772.27元/克，深圳水贝批发价约756元/克，品牌金店（如周大福、六福）足 金首饰价仍处高位（1007-1008元/克）。 利空因素： 美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，强化美联储推迟降息预期，美元走强压制金价。 地缘风险短期缓和（中东停火、欧盟推迟对美关税报复），削弱避险需求。 技术性抛压加剧，3340美元关键支撑位失守后触发连锁抛售。 支撑因素： 央行购金潮延续（中国连续8个月增持，全球央行Q1购金量同比增34%）。 黄金科技需求增长（脑机接口、纳米芯片导线应用）。 二、市场行为与消费心理 "买涨不买跌"现象凸显 深圳水贝商家反馈：金价下跌后销售额反比上涨时减少30%-40%，消费者观望情绪浓厚，期待"抄底 价"（如600元/克）。促销措施（如降工费3-5元/克）效果有限。 婚庆刚需群 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a perfect rotation with silver prices surging significantly, outperforming gold and platinum in recent months [1][2]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Silver prices have seen a dramatic increase, reaching over $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, with a year-to-date increase of 33%, surpassing gold's 27% rise [1][2]. - As of July 15, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures price rose to 9,225 yuan per kilogram, with a year-to-date increase of 23.5% [2]. Group 2: Drivers of Silver's Rise - The surge in silver prices is attributed to industrial demand driven by the acceleration of global energy transition and geopolitical risks, leading to increased investment in precious metals [3][6]. - The global photovoltaic market is expected to see a significant increase in silver demand, with projections of over 600 GW of new installations by 2025 [3]. Group 3: Sources of Investment Flow - Recent inflows into the silver market are primarily from institutional investors and individual investors, with a notable increase in silver ETF holdings and speculative positions in futures markets [4]. - As of July 14, the largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 14,966.24 tons, marking a peak for the year [4]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - The World Silver Association forecasts that silver prices could reach $40 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by strong industrial demand and investment inflows [5][7]. - Analysts predict that silver's price will continue to rise due to supply constraints and robust industrial demand, particularly from green technologies [6][7]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Trends - The silver market is currently experiencing a structural deficit, with industrial demand expected to remain strong, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and solar energy [7][8]. - Despite some cautious outlooks regarding short-term price movements, there is an expectation that silver will outperform gold in the long run as economic growth accelerates [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. There is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of breaking the "involution" on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Volatility jumps should be guarded against, and non - dollar assets should be focused on. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States on most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm payrolls in the US were better than expected again, with a significant rebound in government employment and a large decline in private - sector employment. The proportion of permanent unemployment increased, and the number of continued unemployment claims also continued to rise. Coupled with the slowdown in hourly wage growth, it indicates concerns in the job market. On July 4, the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly to 5.8% year - on - year, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of China's export volume in June increased by 1.0 percentage points compared with May. The recovery of exports to the US was the main boost, and the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US increased by 18.4 percentage points compared with May, possibly mainly benefiting from the "rush to import" in the US after the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs in May. In addition, exports to ASEAN remained at a high level, and the "rush to re - export" continued to play a role. In June 2025, the national consumer price rose 0.1% year - on - year, with food prices falling 0.3%, non - food prices rising 0.1%, consumer goods prices falling 0.2%, and service prices rising 0.5%. On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity." As early as July 2024, the Politburo meeting raised the issue of "involution" to the central level. Commodities oriented to domestic demand such as coking coal, rebar, and glass, as well as polysilicon, which has been falling since the beginning of the year, were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy during the week [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation ideas are differentiated. Domestically, there are moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements the established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock market sentiment has rebounded, and the bond market maintains a volatile outlook. Stock index futures continue a moderate upward trend but are affected by insufficient incremental funds and are expected to fluctuate. Stock index options should be maintained with caution due to the continuous deterioration of option liquidity and are expected to fluctuate. Bond market sentiment has weakened for treasury bond futures, and they are affected by factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing and are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Risk appetite has risen, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Sentiment has declined, and attention is paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention is paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases, affected by tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Market sentiment leads, and attention is focused on the realization of positive factors. Steel products have continuous positive news and strong performance on the disk, affected by the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore has limited fundamental negatives, and macro sentiment boosts the ore price, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate. Coke has limited supply - demand contradictions, and the first round of price increases has started, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate. Coking coal has slow supply recovery and slow upstream de - stocking, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate. Silicon iron has little supply - demand contradiction and follows the sector's fluctuations, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement, and is expected to fluctuate. Manganese silicon has limited supply - demand drivers and follows the sector's operation, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes, and is expected to fluctuate. Glass stimulates speculation on the disk, and inventory has slightly decreased, affected by spot production and sales, and is expected to fluctuate. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation, and inventory continues to accumulate, affected by soda ash inventory, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - The game of reciprocal tariffs vs. the expectation of domestic policy stimulus, non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper is affected by the possible early implementation of US tariffs on copper, and its price is under pressure, affected by supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations, and economic recession, and is expected to fluctuate. Alumina is affected by the rumor that the mining license incident has eased, and the alumina disk has declined, affected by ore production not recovering as expected, electrolytic aluminum production recovering more than expected, and extreme sector trends, and is expected to fluctuate. Aluminum has a large inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is under pressure to decline, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Zinc has a supply - demand surplus, and the zinc price fluctuates weakly, affected by macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply recovering more than expected, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Lead has a solid cost support, and the lead price fluctuates, affected by supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports, and is expected to fluctuate. Nickel has increased nickel ore exports from Philippine nickel enterprises, and the short - term nickel price fluctuates widely, affected by unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and supply not being released as expected in some links, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Stainless steel has a weakening nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel disk runs weakly, affected by Indonesian policy risks and demand growth exceeding expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Tin has a resilient supply - demand fundamental, and the tin price fluctuates, affected by the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Industrial silicon is affected by the continuous "anti - involution" sentiment, and the silicon price has rebounded, affected by unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations, and is expected to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate is affected by the speculation of supply disruptions under the "anti - involution" background, and the lithium carbonate position has increased and the price has risen, affected by demand falling short of expectations, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil has supply pressure, and attention is paid to geopolitical disturbances, affected by OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations, and is expected to fluctuate. LPG's disk returns to trading the fundamental looseness, and the PG disk may fluctuate weakly, affected by cost - end progress such as crude oil and overseas propane, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Asphalt futures continue to fall, affected by unexpected demand, and are expected to decline. High - sulfur fuel oil's discount continues to fall, and its weakness is strengthened, affected by crude oil and natural gas prices, and is expected to decline. Low - sulfur fuel oil's low - high sulfur spread continues to rebound, affected by crude oil and natural gas prices, and is expected to decline. Methanol has a decline in domestic operation against an increase in imports, and it fluctuates weakly, affected by macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate. Urea has a situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand that is difficult to change, and it depends on exports to drive, affected by market transaction conditions, policy trends, and demand realization, and is expected to fluctuate. Ethylene glycol has a stable basis, and devices are restarting one after another, and it continues to fluctuate, affected by ethylene glycol inventory, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. PX is stable for the time being, and it fluctuates strongly, affected by crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities, and is expected to fluctuate. PTA has a weakening supply - demand situation and a strong cost - end PX, and it fluctuates, affected by polyester production, and is expected to fluctuate. Short - fiber has a falling basis, rising processing fees, and its absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations, affected by terminal textile and clothing exports, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. Bottle chips start to be overhauled, and the bottle - chip processing fees reach the bottom, affected by the later start - up of bottle chips, and are expected to fluctuate. PP is driven by commodity sentiment and fluctuates, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations, and is expected to fluctuate. Plastic has limited spot support and fluctuates, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations, and is expected to fluctuate. Styrene is in a driving vacuum period and fluctuates, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. PVC has strong expectations and weak reality and fluctuates, affected by expectations, costs, and supply, and is expected to fluctuate. Caustic soda's spot price continues to rebound, and it is cautiously optimistic, affected by market sentiment, start - up, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - There may be La Nina at the end of the year, which boosts the sentiment of going long on protein meal. Oils are affected by the good growth of US soybeans, and market sentiment has weakened, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, and are expected to fluctuate. Protein meal, corn, and starch may have a La Nina at the end of the year, which boosts the market sentiment of going long. Protein meal is affected by US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situations, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. Corn is affected by demand falling short of expectations, macro - situations, and weather, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Rubber is supported by macro sentiment, and the rubber price runs, affected by producing - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes, and is expected to fluctuate. Synthetic rubber fluctuates on the disk, affected by large fluctuations in crude oil, and is expected to fluctuate. Pulp is dominated by macro factors and rises within the range, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes, and is expected to fluctuate. Cotton's price fluctuates narrowly, affected by demand and output, and is expected to fluctuate. Sugar is affected by changes in imports, affected by abnormal weather, and is expected to fluctuate. Logs are in a dilemma and fluctuate, affected by shipment volume and dispatch volume, and are expected to fluctuate and decline [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral oscillation (adjusted from relatively strong) [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No specific star rating provided [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, for observation) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, for observation) [1] Core Viewpoints - The increase in global oil inventories accelerated marginally in Q2, and the overall inventory decreased by 0.3% in the first week of Q3. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the rating of the crude oil market this week is adjusted to neutral oscillation [2]. - As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow the downward trend. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack spread is expected to continue its downward trend, while the LU crack spread may turn into a sideways pattern [2]. - If the increase in the deduction ratio is mainly for secondary hydrogenation units, it will divert asphalt supply. The asphalt supply increase's resilience needs further observation, and the price increase is limited before demand improves substantially [3]. - The Middle East's production increase pressure persists, and the overseas LPG price continues to oscillate weakly. The domestic LPG market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures market oscillates weakly [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, the overall inventory decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the rating is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation. The upside space for Brent crude above $70/barrel is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow the downward trend, with a deeper decline in FU and a widening spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils. The supply of high - sulfur heavy resources is expected to increase, and the FU crack spread is expected to decline. The LU crack spread may turn into a sideways pattern [2]. Asphalt - If the increase in the deduction ratio is mainly for secondary hydrogenation units, it will divert asphalt supply. The cumulative year - on - year increase in the shipments of 54 sample refineries decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June. The asphalt price is supported by low inventory, and the upward movement is limited before demand improves [3]. LPG - The Middle East's production increase pressure persists, and the overseas LPG price continues to oscillate weakly. The domestic LPG market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the top of the domestic gas price under pressure. The futures market oscillates weakly [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance, with the market in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. Investors are advised to control risks and wait and see [2]. - For methanol, the upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The demand side is weak, and the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also limited by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [4]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen significantly, but they should guard against the risk of correction. The overall tire start - up rate is relatively high, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, with a neutral - to - long or neutral short - term view [7][8][10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The disk's main logic is the transition from destocking to stockpiling. Although it has strengthened recently following the black building materials sector, it will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene - ethylene, there are different views from both long and short sides. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate due to global trade policy uncertainties and seasonal off - season factors [17]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July due to the supply - demand weakness in the seasonal off - season [18]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, it is expected to continue destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following crude oil [20][21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the Saudi plant's unexpected situation is expected to make it run strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals are weak in the long term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: WTI主力原油期货收跌1.92美元，跌幅2.79%，报66.83美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌1.49美元，跌幅2.11%，报69.14美元；INE主力原油期货收涨13.60元，涨幅2.65%，报527.5元 [5]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.86 million barrels to 89.83 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. Diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.76 million barrels to 102.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. Total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.63 million barrels to 192.42 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.92% [5]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract rose by 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The overseas device start - up rate has returned to the middle - high level. The demand side is in the off - season, with the port olefin load reduction and the traditional demand start - up rate falling [2]. Urea - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract fell by 9 yuan/ton, reporting 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 46 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic start - up rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The demand side, such as compound fertilizer start - up rate, has bottomed out and rebounded, and the export collection is still continuing [4]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: NR and RU have risen significantly [7]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 10, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The semi - steel tire start - up load of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8]. PVC - **Market Situation**: The PVC09 contract rose by 30 yuan, reporting 5010 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 160 (- 40) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 113 (- 1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The demand side was weak, and the domestic start - up rate was still lower than in previous years and was gradually entering the off - season. Exports were expected to weaken [12]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Situation**: Spot prices and futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The cost side of pure benzene start - up rate has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply side of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate has continued to rise. The port inventory has increased, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global trade policy uncertainties have returned. The spot price has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The trader inventory is fluctuating at a high level, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off - season, with the downstream start - up rate seasonally fluctuating downward [18]. PX - **Market Situation**: The PX09 contract rose by 84 yuan, reporting 6778 yuan. The PX CFR rose by 15 dollars, reporting 852 dollars, and the basis was 243 (+ 42) yuan, with the 9 - 1 spread of 94 (+ 20) yuan [20]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: China's PX load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [20]. PTA - **Market Situation**: The PTA09 contract rose by 40 yuan, reporting 4740 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 25 yuan, reporting 4735 yuan, with a basis of 8 (+ 8) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 40 (+ 2) yuan [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Situation**: The EG09 contract rose by 52 yuan, reporting 4357 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 14 yuan, reporting 4398 yuan, with a basis of 67 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 12 (+ 14) yuan [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The port inventory decreased by 2.7 tons to 55.3 tons [23].

玻璃：预期好转，关注月末补库力度 纯碱：基本面偏空，轻仓参与 正信期货玻璃纯碱周报 20240714 首席研究员：徐婧 投资咨询编号：Z0012091 Email: xujing@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 首席研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号： Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel： 027-68851659 1、纯碱内容要点 | 因素 | 因素综述 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 上周纯碱产量70.89万吨（-0.00，-0.00%)，其中轻碱产量30.88万吨（-0.43），重碱产量40.01万吨（+0.43）。纯碱开 | | | 工率81.32%（-0.00%），其中氨碱82.56%（+1.24%），联产70.33%（-3.03%）。 | | 需求 | 上周纯碱企业出货量为65.51万吨，环比上周-1.70%；纯碱整体产销率为92.4%，环比上周-1.59%。上周纯碱需求略有转弱， | | | 下游企业以刚需拿货为主。下周浮法预期略有增量，光伏玻璃有减量预期。5月纯碱进口0.15万吨，环比-0.31万吨；出口 | | | 18.17万吨， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being in a weak - oscillating state [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.59% lower at 502.9 yuan/barrel on Thursday night [5]. Core Logic - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased the premium of crude oil, and the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened after the previous sharp decline. The demand for crude oil has increased due to the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere's summer peak season [5]. - Eight major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, which has put downward pressure on the oil price [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]