Core Insights - The geopolitical situation and central bank monetary policies are key factors influencing forex market volatility, with significant events in June 2025 altering short-term trends [1] - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran on June 23 led to a 5% drop in oil prices, reducing market risk aversion and impacting the dollar's strength [2] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, with officials advocating for a quick interest rate cut, increased the probability of a July rate cut to 23%, further weakening the dollar [3] Event-Driven Analysis - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran significantly reduced geopolitical risk, leading to a decline in demand for safe-haven assets like the dollar, thus creating favorable conditions for non-USD currencies [2] - The Federal Reserve's dovish comments reflect concerns about the U.S. economy, with indicators suggesting potential economic slowdown, prompting a shift in market expectations towards rate cuts [3] Forex Market Impact - The dollar index broke key support levels, reaching a six-week low, indicating a potential new adjustment cycle due to reduced safe-haven demand and rising rate cut expectations [4] - The EUR/USD pair successfully broke the 1.08 resistance level, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite challenges in the Eurozone economy [6] - The Japanese yen experienced a strong rebound due to a wave of short covering in the context of changing market risk preferences [7] Trading Strategy Analysis - Different G10 currencies may exhibit varying performances in the current environment, with the British pound influenced by Brexit developments and the euro benefiting from relative stability [8] - The Chinese economy's recovery will significantly impact the Australian dollar, while the Canadian dollar may face pressure from falling oil prices but could rebound with improved global economic expectations [8] - The current market conditions provide a favorable window for Chinese exporters to manage currency exposure effectively, while investors should remain vigilant regarding macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments [9]

6月24日盘中，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1746.4点。截止发稿， 集运指数（欧线）主力合约报1784.1点，跌幅6.36%。 集运指数（欧线）期货主力跌超6%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 船公司挺价松动，市场情绪较为悲观，周一集运指数延续下跌。在线订舱报价显示，赫伯罗特将7月中 上旬运价由2635/4335美元下调至2435/3835美元，小柜和大柜分别调降幅度为8%和12%。达飞将6月底 部分航次报价小幅下调至1735美元/TEU和3045美元FEU，7月初在宣涨的基础上分别下调15美金和45美 金至2235美元/TEU和4045美元FEU，表明订舱情况不及预期，以价换量特征明显。据央视新闻报道， 伊朗已接受美国提出的与以色列停火方案，地缘局势出现缓和将提振金融市场风险情绪，对航运市场影 响减弱。周一盘后上海航运交易所公布最新一期的SCFIS欧线指数录得1937.14点，环比上涨14.1点，结 合上一期1697.63点，平均值为1817.4点，预计交割价在1860点附近左右。根据季节性规律和价差走势分 析，策略上可适当关注2510-2512合约之间反向套利机会。 ...

欢迎关注微信公众号 品种 主力合约 点评 操作建议 板块 指数下方支撑较稳定,上方突破有待驱动,短期国 IF2509 际形势多变,指数区间震荡为主,观察期指贴水状 IH2509 股指 A股低开高走,阶段性企稳反弹 态,推荐尝试在中证1000品种上逢回调买入贴水 IC2507 较深的09合约,并卖出上方6300附近09看涨期 IM2509 权. 形成备兑组合。 T2509 关注月未央行公布国债买卖情况,如果重启买债可能带动利率 单边策略上,期债可适当逢调整配置多单。期现策 TF2509 顺畅下行,10年期国债利率有概率突破1.6%,反之如果预期落 国债 金融 TS2509 略上,可以适当关注TS2509合约正套策略。 空那么债市可能有阶段性回调压力。 TL2509 短期消息影响金价在3300-3400美元之间宽幅波 AU2508 中东地缘局势和美联储货币预期等消息影响反复 贵金属冲高回 动,卖出虚值看涨期权继续持续:目前银价在 贵金属 35.5-37美元区间波动,尝试沪银虚值期权双卖策 AG2508 落 路 集运指数 航司报价低迷带动EC盘面下跌 08主力在1900-2200区间窄幅震荡 EC2508 (欧线) ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-24 铝锭社会库存小幅增加 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20650元/吨，较上一交易日下跌70元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌30元/吨至150元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20470元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌40元/吨至-20元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20530元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌5元/吨至45元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-23日沪铝主力合约开于20425元/吨，收于20365元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌50元/ 吨，跌幅-0.24%，最高价达20580元/吨，最低价达到20340元/吨。全天交易日成交181056手，较上一交易日增 加87843手，全天交易日持仓253597手，较上一交易日增加89586手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.4万吨。截止2025-06-23，LME铝库存340975 吨，较前一交易日减少1875吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-23 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3130元/吨，山东价格录得3140 ...

半年度报告——金融工程 国债期货套保、择时与套利策略表现 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 6 月 24 日 ★ 市场概况与策略回顾 2025 年国债期货成交持仓方面的主要变化为超长国债期货 成交量的大幅上行与两年期国债期货持仓量的大幅上行，短 久期国债期货成交持仓比显著下降成为今年主要套保品种。 金 融 工 套保组合表现：不同品种国债期货空头套保效果均好于买入 并持有基准，最优套保组合为高久期现券加低久期国债期货 套保组合。套保效果方面，国债 5-7 年指数使用 TS 套保组合 净值达到年化收益 7.1%,，夏普比率 4.26，最大回撤仅 0.2%， TF 套保组合年化收益 3.4%，T 套保组合年化收益 2.0%，均 由于买入并持有的年化收益 1.5%。不同品种套保效果横向比 较 TS 的套保效果最优，其原因前期曲线走陡以及 TS 空头久 期中性基差 carry 相对较高。 程 择时与套利策略表现：跨品种套利策略今年上半年表现较 佳，择时策略整体表现一般，其中超长债表现相对更优。基 于等权配置套利策略与择时策略，2025 年上半年组合最大回 撤有效控制在 1.1%以内，显著改善了择时策略在 ...

易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/24 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 90 -80 -280 -560 理论价差 492 882 1281 1680 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -65 -205 -295 -360 理论价差 212 330 449 567 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -100 -180 -285 -400 理论价差 213 328 442 556 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 120 120 120 95 理论价差 209 314 419 524 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 -740 ...

Core Insights - The phenomenon of "zero-kilometer used cars" has emerged in the Chinese automotive market, involving a significant number of dealers and creating a gray industrial chain that highlights issues of excessive competition within the industry [1][2][3] - This practice involves automakers, dealers, and used car merchants forming a profit transmission chain, where vehicles are registered and then sold as used cars to meet sales targets, leading to inflated sales figures without actual consumer delivery [1][2] Industry Dynamics - The loopholes in the new energy vehicle subsidy policy have facilitated the rise of "zero-kilometer used cars," with some companies exploiting these policies to create a subsidy arbitrage chain [2][3] - The presence of these vehicles disrupts the new car market by offering significant price advantages, which can lead to a depreciation in the perceived value of new cars and weaken brand pricing power [2][3] Market Impact - "Zero-kilometer used cars" have distorted the pricing logic of the used car market, undermining traditional valuation methods based on usage and mileage [3][4] - The proliferation of these vehicles has led to a trust crisis in the used car market, as some dealers engage in fraudulent practices such as odometer tampering [3][4] Consumer Risks - Consumers face multiple risks when purchasing "zero-kilometer used cars," including the loss of warranty and service benefits, as well as potential depreciation in resale value [3][4] - Hidden mechanical issues and potential legal disputes due to undisclosed vehicle histories pose additional risks for consumers [4] Regulatory Response - Regulatory bodies have begun to take action against these practices, with measures aimed at curbing false sales and subsidy exploitation, and improving vehicle registration traceability [4][5] - Future policy measures may include legislative definitions of "zero-kilometer used cars," inventory warning systems, and changes in revenue recognition standards to prevent data manipulation [4][5] Industry Self-Regulation - Some automakers are adjusting their sales targets to focus on actual consumer deliveries rather than inventory pressure, which may help reduce the occurrence of "zero-kilometer used cars" [5][6] - Leading used car platforms are enhancing quality inspection standards and requiring transparency in vehicle history to mitigate consumer risks [5][6] Long-term Solutions - The root cause of the "zero-kilometer used car" issue lies in the automotive industry's over-reliance on scale expansion, necessitating a shift from price competition to value competition [5][6] - A fundamental change in development logic is essential for creating a sustainable automotive ecosystem, emphasizing product innovation and core competitiveness over data manipulation [5][6][7]

月初，北交所就公布了"北证专精特新指数"的首批成分股名单，伴随着当前北交所行情火爆， 预计相 关指数基金会快速落地，并成长起一定规模 。今天我们将北证50套利的逻辑应用与这一新的指数，看 看哪些成分股最具套利价值。记得关注我们的小号~ 新指数将登陆北交！哪些成分股最具套利潜力？ ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2507 合约收于 78290 元/吨，涨幅 0.14%，沪铜指数减仓 5943 手至 52.52 万手。 2.现货：持货商积极出货换现，现货升水承压走低。上海报升水 90 元/吨，较上一交易日下 跌 30 元/吨。广东库存 5 连降，但市场看淡后市，持货商主动降价出货，报升水 60 元/ 吨，下跌 30 元/吨。华北临近年中月末，下游采购欲望不强，报贴水 150 元/吨，下跌 40 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国 5 月废铜进口量 ...

有色金属套利周报20250623 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Tel：027-68851554 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net 套利策略 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资金流动情况 第二部分：有色金属库存与利润情况 第三部分：有色金属基差与期限结构 第四部分：内外盘金属价格对比 第五部分：有色金属跨品种比值变化 3 目 录 目 录 | | 品 种 | 策 | 略 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 国内需求进入淡季 订单量减少 铝棒开始 ， 。 累库 社库拐点临近 铝价有冲高回落的风 | | 跨 期 | 铝 | 反 | 套 | ， ， 险 而淡季结束后 需求有望重新为铝价提 。 ， | | | | | | 供支撑 建议逢低滚动参与铝的跨期反套 ， 。 | | | | | | 国内精炼锌产出明显恢复 年内全球新投产 ， | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | | 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 ...