Core Insights - Major project construction across various regions in China has accelerated significantly entering the fourth quarter, with substantial investments aimed at boosting economic growth and improving social welfare [1][2] Group 1: Project Initiatives - Fuzhou has launched 188 major projects with a total investment of 136.3 billion yuan, covering various sectors including industrial development and infrastructure [1] - Jiangsu Province emphasized the need for rapid project advancement, aiming to increase physical work output and expedite project completion [1] - Guangxi initiated seven major transportation infrastructure projects with a combined investment exceeding 71 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - Major project construction is expected to have a significant short-term impact on economic growth by directly stimulating large-scale investments and creating numerous job opportunities [2] - The construction initiatives are anticipated to activate economic circulation and boost demand across various industries, including steel, cement, and logistics [2] - In the long term, these projects are crucial for industrial upgrading, promoting cluster development, and optimizing industrial structure, thereby supporting high-quality economic development [2] Group 3: Financial Support - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, specifically aimed at supplementing project capital [2][3] - This financial support is designed to address capital shortages for major projects and enhance their financing capabilities, leveraging more social capital for project construction [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system and address potential tightening pressures [3][4]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On October 15, the PBOC executed a 600 billion yuan 6-month reverse repurchase operation, marking the second such operation in October [3]. - A total of 1.3 trillion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature in October, including 800 billion yuan for 3-month and 500 billion yuan for 6-month terms [3]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at ensuring stable liquidity in the market, especially in light of significant government bond issuances and new policy financial tools [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the combination of 3-month and 6-month reverse repos will help stabilize the market's liquidity, particularly around the New Year [4]. - The reverse repo rates are lower than the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rates, which may reduce funding costs for financial institutions and support future credit expansion [4]. - There is an expectation of 700 billion yuan in MLF maturing in October, with the market anticipating that the PBOC will continue or slightly increase the amount in future operations [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC is expected to utilize a mix of reverse repos and MLF to manage short- to medium-term liquidity, while also considering tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts to support long-term liquidity [4]. - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for growth stabilization policies, with potential resumption of government bond trading operations to maintain a reasonable yield curve [4].

Group 1: Economic Policy and Investment - The fourth quarter is crucial for economic work and planning for the next year, with macro policies being implemented to ensure stable economic performance, requiring approximately 15 trillion yuan in investment and 13 to 14 trillion yuan in consumption [1] - New policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan are expected to support project capital, enhancing infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [4] - Local governments are anticipated to expedite the use of remaining special bond funds, with an estimated 680 billion yuan available for investment [5] Group 2: Consumer Support Policies - The government has issued 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs, with over 330 million people benefiting from subsidies, leading to sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] - There are expectations for further support policies for large-scale consumption, including expanded subsidies for vehicle replacements and initiatives in health, medical, and digital sectors [2][3] - The retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan for the year, with consumption contributing over 50% to GDP [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Investment - China is set to enhance its high-level opening-up policies, with the Hainan Free Trade Port scheduled to officially operate by December 2025, easing restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7] - The 138th China Import and Export Fair will take place from October 15 to November 4, aiming to support foreign trade enterprises amid external challenges [7] - A series of favorable policies for foreign investment are expected to be implemented, focusing on advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors [7][8]

铜周报：宏观扰动再起，铜价高位回调 2025-10-13 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 p 供给端：自由港印尼矿区因为泥石流事故停产，Grasberg矿区2025年四季度铜产销量预计大幅下降。9月，国内南方粗铜加工费 700元/吨，较上月减少150元/吨。9月进口CIF粗铜加工费85美元/吨，较上月减少10元/吨。截至10月10日，铜精矿现货粗炼费为- 40.70美元/吨，铜精矿现货粗炼费继续维持历史低位。截至10月10日，国内铜精矿港口库存50.9万吨，铜精矿港口库存小幅上升，环 比增加6.04%。9月电解铜产量112.1万吨，同比增加11.62%，环比减少4.31%，9月部分冶炼厂检修导致产量下降，同时废铜政策不确 定性影响下阳极板供应紧张，部分企业减产。 p 需求端：旺季下游消费恢复有限，铜价高位抑制需求。截至10月9日，国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率下降至43.44%，环比下降 30.34个百分点，同比下降16.99个百分点。国庆假期企业多集中安排生产放假，叠加节后归来首个交易日铜价冲破85000元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has significantly increased liquidity net injection in September, amounting to 926.8 billion yuan, indicating a potential for further monetary easing in the fourth quarter, including possible reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - In September, the PBOC's liquidity injection included 19 million yuan from the Standing Lending Facility (SLF), 300 billion yuan from the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), and 3.9 trillion yuan from short-term reverse repos, while there was no activity in government bond transactions [3][4]. - The MLF and reverse repos can serve as substitutes for government bond transactions, reducing the necessity for the PBOC to inject liquidity through bond purchases [3][4]. - The PBOC's toolbox remains rich, with significant room for both quantity-based tools like RRR cuts and price-based tools like interest rate cuts [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by weak recovery, necessitating a continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to address external shocks and domestic demand deficiencies [4][9]. - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to be a crucial pathway for stimulating investment, with a projected leverage effect that could lead to an additional investment scale of approximately 1 trillion to 1.7 trillion yuan [4][7]. - The PBOC's approach to government bond transactions differs fundamentally from quantitative easing (QE) practices in developed economies, focusing on liquidity management rather than a large-scale, one-sided purchase of bonds [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Indicators - The market liquidity remains ample, with funding rates stabilizing around policy rates, and the PBOC is expected to maintain a balance between financial stability and economic development [3][8]. - Observations of market interest rates should focus on the weighted average of key rates rather than individual transaction rates, as fiscal factors can influence liquidity conditions [8][9]. - The anticipated gradual recovery of prices will require coordinated efforts across various sectors, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to trend down to around 1.6% amid ongoing economic adjustments [9].

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 钢材: | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五螺卷跳空高开，收阴线。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问时表示，中国的 | | | | | 出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合规定的申请将予以许可。中方事先已就措施可能对 | | | | | 产供链产生的影响进行了充分评估，并确信相关影响非常有限。如果美方一意孤行， | | | | | 中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 | | | | | 2、住建部：目前全国白名单项目贷款的审批金额已经超过了 7 万亿元，有力保障 | | | | | 了商品房项目建设交付。存量住房市场规模持续扩大，全国已有 15 个省区市二手 | | | | | 住宅的交易量超过新房。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 3、据了解，自国家发 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government is in a shutdown due to a lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill, leading to a focus on private sector data as official reports are absent. The ADP employment numbers for September showed a larger-than-expected decline, indicating a continued weakening trend in employment. Manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded but remains in contraction territory, with new orders reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector. Non-manufacturing PMI is also not optimistic, with price components slightly rising due to tariff cost transmission [2][3] - In Europe and Japan, political instability is evident with the resignation of the French Prime Minister and the election of a right-leaning leader in Japan, creating uncertainty in the political landscape. The European Central Bank has no immediate plans for rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike process may slow down due to policy direction [3] - Domestic consumption has been boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption. However, the real estate market shows signs of weakness, particularly in first-tier cities, and the central bank is expected to adopt a more flexible and anticipatory policy approach in the fourth quarter [2][3] Fixed Income Research - In Q3 2025, the central bank maintained support for the market with significant net injections through reverse repos and MLF, keeping funding prices low. The issuance of government bonds decreased, but net financing remained high due to reduced maturity volumes. The bond market showed a bear steepening trend, with investor confidence in buying bonds remaining low [5][6] - Looking ahead to Q4, the bond market is expected to remain under pressure, but the situation is anticipated to improve compared to Q3. The key indicators to watch include PPI, which will influence bond pricing. The central bank's continued support and potential resumption of bond purchases are expected to stabilize interest rates [6][7] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday, but supply may also increase, making significant improvements in the fundamentals unlikely. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a key event to monitor for industry developments [8] - For copper, global supply remains tight, providing support for prices, but general demand and high prices may pressure future price increases. Aluminum prices are expected to face limitations due to high costs affecting purchasing sentiment [8][9] - Gold prices are influenced by the U.S. entering a rate cut cycle and political risks from the government shutdown. If the shutdown is resolved and economic data remains strong, gold may face short-term corrections [9][10] - Lithium supply concerns have eased with approvals for resource reports, but short-term oversupply pressures may affect prices. Rare earth prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic export policies and overseas demand [9][10] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The recent World Lung Cancer Conference highlighted the R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The National Medical Products Administration has initiated the 11th round of centralized drug procurement [12][13] - The medical care CPI for August showed a 0.9% year-on-year increase, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI decreased by 2.9%. Cumulative revenue and profit in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector have declined by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2025 [13] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback in September, with a focus on the upcoming ESMO conference and third-quarter earnings reports. There is potential for improvement in fundamentals, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [14][15]

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a 116 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity and stabilize interest rates, indicating a willingness to support economic recovery [1] - The operation had a fixed interest rate of 1.40% and a full bid amount of 116 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 116 billion yuan for the day [1] Group 2 - Multiple trust companies received notifications to investigate their reverse repurchase leverage ratios, reflecting regulatory concerns about market risks and the need for stricter controls [2] - This move aims to standardize market operations and prevent the accumulation of high leverage risks, contributing to long-term financial market stability [2] Group 3 - Various regions are seizing the "golden period" for major project construction, with new policy financial tools being rapidly implemented to support project capital [3] - The announcement of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to boost infrastructure investment growth in the fourth quarter, positively impacting related industries [3] Group 4 - Three gold and jewelry companies in Shenzhen were penalized for illegal activities, including operating a gambling business, highlighting the need for increased legal awareness and risk prevention among investors [4] - The crackdown on illegal activities in the gold and jewelry market aims to enhance market transparency and credibility, promoting healthier industry development in the long run [4] Group 5 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 11th day, affecting approximately 600,000 employees who are either on unpaid leave or working without pay [5] - The shutdown has begun to result in layoffs, with over 4,000 employees from various departments facing termination [5]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Investment - The fourth quarter is crucial for economic work and planning for the next year, with macro policies being implemented effectively [1] - An estimated investment of around 15 trillion yuan and consumption of 13 to 14 trillion yuan is needed in the fourth quarter [1] - New policy tools are expected to stimulate investment, with a focus on major project construction and financial support [4][5] Group 2: Consumer Support Policies - A new round of consumer support policies is anticipated, including an additional 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumption upgrades [2] - The "old for new" subsidy program has seen 330 million participants, driving sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] - Policies may also support sectors like health, tourism, and digital services, with potential issuance of consumption vouchers [2] Group 3: Retail and Consumption Growth - Factors such as childcare subsidies and a recovering stock market are expected to support retail sales growth, with total retail sales projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [3] - The contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to surpass 50% [3] Group 4: Foreign Trade Policies - Significant foreign trade policies are set to be released in the fourth quarter, with a focus on high-level opening up [6] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is on track for its official operation by December 2025, with plans to ease restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7] - The 138th Canton Fair will introduce new measures to support foreign trade enterprises [7] Group 5: Financial and Investment Support - Local governments are expected to expedite the use of remaining special bond funds, with an estimated 680 billion yuan available [5] - New policies to encourage private investment in emerging sectors are anticipated [5] - Financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan will be used to support project capital [4]

四季度是全年经济工作冲刺的收官季，也是谋划下一年发展的关键期。近期，从中央到地方，一揽子宏 观政策持续落地，效能不断显现。 受访专家认为，全年经济实现平稳运行，预计四季度需要15万亿元左右的投资总量和13万亿元至14万亿 元的消费总量。在稳投资、稳消费、稳外贸等领域或将推出增量政策，并强化现有政策的执行，结合财 政、货币、行业政策打出组合拳。 全力冲刺四季度经济哪些增量政策值得期待？ ◎记者白丽斐李苑 重大项目建设离不开充足的资金保障。国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超日前表 示，新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲预计，新型政策性金融工具主要面向将要开工或已开工未完工的项目，用作 项目资本金，以尽快实现实物工作量的增长。按照过往经验来看，政策性金融工具将对四季度基建投资 起到一定撬动作用。 大宗消费支持政策或将再加码 为推动消费结构转型升级，一揽子提振消费举措持续落地。 近日，国家发展改革委会同财政部，向地方下达了今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧 换新资金，至此全年3000亿元中央资金已全部下达。今年前8个月，全国共有3.3亿 ...