A股最近有点猛！ 上证已经连涨9个交易日，一口气升破3900点还不止，距离4000点，也仅一步之遥！ 资金面也活跃起来，正从各方涌入。 其中，中证A500指数通过在各个行业内优选龙头上市企业、行业配置均衡，成为资金年末入市的核心通道之一。 缘何走强？ 梳理近期A股走强，主要有以下几大逻辑： 第一，是宏观流动性与政策预期。 A500ETF南方(159352)成为本月ETF"吸金王"。Wind数据显示，截至12月26日，12月以来净买入248.25亿元，位居全市场ETF之首；最新规模达473.24亿 元，在深市同标的中排名第一。 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，宏观政策将保持连续性和支持力度，财政与货币政策有望协同发力，为经济提供支撑。 这种"预期在前"的思维，加上央行维持的"适度宽松"基调确保了市场整体资金面充裕，驱动了市场风险偏好的整体提升。 近期，随着美元指数走弱及市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期，人民币兑美元汇率持续走强，突破了"7"这个重要心理关口，大幅缓解了外资流出压力， 增强人民币资产吸引力，提升了国内投资者的信心。 第二，是对明年经济新动能的预期。 经济数据方面，虽然整体仍处于温和修复，但不乏结构性 ...

作者 | 深鹏 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） A股最近有点猛！ 上证已经连涨9个交易日，一口气升破3900点还不止，距离4000点，也仅一步之遥！ 资金面也活跃起来，正从各方涌入。 其中，中证A500指数通过在各个行业内优选龙头上市企业、行业配置均衡，成为资金年末入市 的核心通道之一。 A500ETF南方(159352)成为本月ETF"吸金王"。Wind数据显示，截至12月26日，12月以来净 买入248.25亿元，位居全市场ETF之首；最新规模达473.24亿元，在深市同标的中排名第一。 梳理近期A股走强，主要有以下几大逻辑： 第一，是宏观流动性与政策预期。 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，宏观政策将保持连续性和支持力度，财政与货币政策有望协同发 力，为经济提供支撑。 这种"预期在前"的思维，加上央行维持的"适度宽松"基调确保了市场整体资金面充裕，驱动了 市场风险偏好的整体提升。 近期，随着美元指数走弱及市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期，人民币兑美元汇率持续走强， 突破了"7"这个重要心理关口，大幅缓解了外资流出压力，增强人民币资产吸引力，提升了国 内投资者的信心。 第二，是 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses whether the A-share market will experience a significant drop in January 2025, similar to previous years, and identifies three main scenarios that could lead to such a decline: macroeconomic overheating leading to policy shifts, continued low sentiment exacerbated by external shocks, or unexpected events [5][11][12] - Current economic recovery is still fragile, making a policy shift unlikely, and the regulatory environment is supportive of the capital market, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5][25][26] - Historical data indicates that spring market rallies in bull years typically begin before the mandatory annual report disclosures, particularly in the tech sector [5][30][31] Group 2 - The report analyzes the relationship between industry performance prior to spring rallies and their continuation during these rallies, noting that industries that performed well before the rally tend to maintain their momentum in the early stages, with a continuation probability of 60-70% [5][33][34] - Conversely, industries that performed poorly before the rally have a 50-60% chance of outperforming in the later stages of the rally, especially if they were previously among the top performers [5][6][33][34] Group 3 - Potential catalysts for the market include the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, and further easing of real estate policies in China [5][35][36] - Specific industries to watch include media, computing, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, which have seen significant declines since November 2025, suggesting a potential rebound during the spring rally [5][42][43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction and decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the upcoming "spring excitement" in the construction sector as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its start, with a historical pattern of infrastructure investment showing a tendency for higher growth in the early stages of five-year plans [4][10] - The report highlights that the current infrastructure investment is still at a low level, but anticipates an increase in investment pace as the "15th Five-Year Plan" begins, which is expected to support the construction sector's performance in 2026 [4][10] - Key areas of focus for investment include major national projects such as the canal system, Tibet railway, and new energy infrastructure, which are expected to generate long-term order demand [19] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The report notes that the government is actively releasing positive signals regarding the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on high-quality development and major infrastructure projects [3][20] - The central government has emphasized the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and accelerating the renovation of old urban areas, with significant progress already reported in various provinces [3][21] Market Performance - The report indicates that the construction and decoration index has shown positive performance, with a 2.26% increase, and highlights the top-performing stocks in the sector [6] Future Outlook - The report identifies three core investment themes for the construction sector in 2026: 1. Major national projects that will continue to drive long-term demand [19] 2. High-dividend, low-valuation state-owned construction enterprises that are expected to gain value [19] 3. Private construction companies leveraging cash flow and flexibility to enter new markets such as clean rooms and AI infrastructure [19]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：云观经济 文：董忠云 刘庆东 王警仪 李博伦 庞晨 杨子萌 摘要 本周海外迎来圣诞假期，美股"圣诞行情"或已开启，虽然全球市场交投清淡但市场情绪较为良好。A股 方面，本轮经济转型牛为慢牛，春季躁动相比与以往，中枢抬升或更加稳健，且持续时间更长。一方 面， 12月中旬全球市场对于AI泡沫和日央行加息的双重担忧下，A股震荡区间的下沿已被进一步夯 实，同时海外双重担忧已逐渐被市场消化，因此本轮春季躁动行情起点或已基本明确，此后如有调整则 应更积极处理。另一方面，当前国内基本面稳增长的效果仍需进一步确认，本轮慢牛行情下，春季躁动 或为震荡抬升，因此不宜过于激进，后续等待新的催化出现后，A股中枢有望再创新高，并开启新一轮 行情。 回顾历史上A股两轮较大的科技景气度投资行情——移动互联网行情和新能源车行情。具体复盘发现， 这两轮景气度投资行情均可分为三个阶段。首先，资本开支底部回升确认产业趋势，估值上升；进一 步，业绩得到验证，为行情接力；最后，业绩增速见顶后，行情进入尾声。 自2022年11月ChatGPT发布以来，近两年AI产业链多个环节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A500 ETF Southern (159352) is experiencing a tight market with significant trading activity and continuous net inflows, indicating strong investor interest and potential for future growth [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 29, 2025, the A500 ETF Southern (159352) had a turnover of 4.03% and a transaction volume of 1.903 billion yuan [1] - The underlying index, the CSI A500 Index, shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Maiwei Co. leading with a 12.29% increase, followed by Guangwei Composites at 10.78% and Goldwind Technology at 10.01% [1] - The CSI A500 Index is the second-largest broad-based index tracked by A-share ETFs, providing a balanced industry and market capitalization distribution that closely reflects the overall A-share market [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - The CSI A500 Index is characterized by a high allocation to emerging industries such as electronics and military, with a significant weight on self-controlled stocks, highlighting new productivity features [1] - The index's core financial indicators are strong, with attractive valuations and historical performance demonstrating high elasticity and resilience against downturns, making it a quality asset for long-term investment [1] - Major stocks in the CSI A500 Index include CATL, Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, and China Merchants Bank, among others [1] Group 3: Fund Flow and Investor Sentiment - Major institutional investors are increasingly adding to their positions in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, contributing to stable incremental capital in the market [2] - Despite potential seasonal fluctuations in net subscriptions, the impact on the capital market is expected to be limited, with accelerated net inflows from financing capital following increased subscriptions [2] - The appreciation of the offshore RMB is likely to attract foreign capital back to the Chinese market, further improving the capital landscape [2] Group 4: Cost Efficiency and Accessibility - The A500 ETF Southern (159352) offers low tracking error and significant excess return rates, with a low average premium/discount rate, providing advantages of low deviation, precise tracking, and scale support [2] - With a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, the A500 ETF Southern offers the lowest fee structure in the industry, providing a high-precision, low-cost investment channel [2] - High liquidity in the market meets trading demands, while accessible fund options facilitate convenient investment strategies [2]

中国银河表示，建议关注：(1)科技板块仍是中长期投资主线，经历前期调整后估值回落，在多重利好 因素提振下，有望反弹回升。(2)消费板块有望获得较大力度政策支持，且当前估值处于相对低位，中 长期上涨空间较大，后续需关注政策落地力度及消费数据改善情况。 恒生指数高开0.43%，恒生科技指数涨0.88%。盘面上，新能源汽车、有色金属板块涨幅靠前，小鹏汽 车涨5.12%，赣锋锂业涨3.93%。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：蒋远华。 华泰证券认为，当前市场依然在左侧布局区间，右侧拐点尚未清晰。市场对春季躁动提前的一致预期较 强，但港股年底仍有供需压力，"Santa rally"有不确定性，一季度或是胜率更高的阶段。11月以来二次 探底过程中，被动/个人投资者是主要增量，境内外机构主动买入均不同程度放缓，年初重配置和人民 币升值是资金面改善的下阶段动力。 关于港股后市 中信建投表示，港股在经历了9月的单边上涨后，10月以来随着海外宏观预期反复的影响经历了震荡调 整。当前AH两地正同步完成中期调整，港股部分优质资产重新进入高性价比区间，在北水持续配置、 盈利预期修复及年末海内外宏观环境改善的共振下，港股正迎来一 ...

一一五年 2025年12月29日 经营动户,外 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读: 1、 市场回顾与展望:近期Ａ股表现强劲,沪指已录得８连阳。板块方面,有色金属、国防军工、电 力设备涨幅居前;美容护理、社会服务和银行跌幅居前。从驱动来看,(1近期行情反弹首先是流动性宽松 预期重新升温。海外美国通胀数据低于预期,美联储宽松预期再度打开;国内方面也存在新年初发债增加 而可能降准的预期。此外,从交易性因素看,随着新一年的到来,机构资金仓位回补也可能带来增量资 金。2其次,每年一、二月份,经济数据、财报都将处于真空期。传统"两会"政策预期和年初政策、基 建项目往往营造开门红氛围,也存在正向利多带动。3商品市场贵金属、有色以及部分反内卷品种涨势强 劲,带动股市对应板块表现强势。赚钱效应改善,吸引股市资金回流,形成正反馈格局。近期Ａ股成交额 已重新回升。综合对比历史来看,流动性、政策、题材三大利多驱动共振,近期行情的确符合典型的春季 躁动拉升逻辑。 60 后期来看,需关注沪指临近4000 点整数关口及前高 4034点位置附近,若新增边际驱动不足,可能带 来突破压力。可能需要关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience a "cross-year + spring" rally, supported by favorable conditions such as liquidity and risk appetite [1][7][13] - Spring market conditions remain favorable due to loose liquidity, with private equity actively purchasing on dips and the appreciation of the RMB benefiting market liquidity [1][6] - Historical trends indicate that the A-share market typically experiences a "spring rally," and policy support is expected to continue, bolstering market confidence and attracting various funds [1][14] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to see a "systematic slow bull" trend, with a high level of confidence in the medium-term outlook, although short-term movements may require cautious observation [2][11] - The A500 ETF has shown significant net inflows, indicating stable incremental funds entering the market, despite potential seasonal outflows in the following quarter [12][7] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to resonate with the capital market, enhancing industry configurations and attracting foreign investment [10][9] Group 3 - The focus on structural opportunities in a volatile market suggests that sectors with low attention but high long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery, should be prioritized [3][15] - The "transformation bull" market is characterized by economic structural changes and capital market reforms, indicating a shift in investment focus towards emerging technologies and large financial institutions [5][4] - The market is likely to experience fluctuations, especially as the year-end approaches and companies begin to disclose annual performance forecasts, which may lead to a preference for large-cap value stocks [8][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market shows a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3963.68, up by 0.10% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.54%, closing at 13603.89, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.14% to 3243.88 [1] - The CSI 300 Index also saw a gain of 0.32%, ending at 4657.24, indicating a generally bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - The Chinese ETF market has reached a record high of 6.03 trillion yuan, marking an increase of over 60% year-to-date [23][24] - The Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, aiming to expand fiscal spending [21][22] - The People's Bank of China is focusing on creating a favorable environment for long-term investments in A-shares, aiming to increase the scale and proportion of various long-term funds [27][28] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The establishment of the Human Robot and Embodied Intelligence Standardization Technical Committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to promote the development of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence industry [29][30] - The total box office for Chinese films in 2025 reached 51.2 billion yuan, with over 1.22 billion viewers, setting new annual records [31][32] - The approval of 1771 games in 2025 marks the highest number in seven years, indicating a robust gaming industry [33] Group 4: Company Updates - Heng Rui Medicine has licensed its SHR6508 project rights in mainland China to Hansoh Pharmaceutical, receiving an upfront payment of 30 million yuan [39][40] - Chipmaker Chipone Technology reported a significant increase in new orders, totaling 2.494 billion yuan, a 129.94% increase compared to the previous year's fourth quarter [42] - Shengyi Technology announced an adjustment to its share repurchase price ceiling to no more than 144.36 yuan per share [43][44] - Jianlin Home has entered into a strategic partnership with Jieka Robotics to enhance its smart home offerings [45][46] Group 5: Regional Economic Developments - In Changsha, the import and export volume maintained growth, with "new three samples" products seeing an export increase of 86.7% [50][52] - The city reported a total import of 2.5944 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, reflecting a 2.7% year-on-year growth [51]