1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and the refineries reduced production. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand: The current overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 3.00% month - on - month, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 12.97% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On September 19th, the Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory are all in a state of continuous destocking [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3,399 - 3,443 [9]. - Influential factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, alleviating supply pressure. However, supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [9]. - Cost: Crude oil has weakened, and cost support has weakened in the short term [9]. - Inventory: Inventory remains flat [9]. - Market trend: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures prices: Most contract prices showed a downward trend, such as the 01 - contract price decreased by 0.50% [16]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% month - on - month [16]. - Production and sales: The sample enterprise output decreased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise shipment volume increased by 31.10% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton on September 19th, and the 11 - contract basis was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Spread: Analyzed the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [21][24][27][31]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - Analyzed the price trends of asphalt in different regions, including Shandong, East China, and South China [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: Analyzed the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt [36][39]. - Supply - side analysis: Analyzed multiple aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price, Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume [43][45][48]. - Inventory analysis: Analyzed exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [63][67][70]. - Import and export analysis: Analyzed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt [73][76][78]. - Demand - side analysis: Analyzed aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, machinery demand, etc.), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [79][82][85]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish due to factors such as high domestic soybean supply, low demand, and weak international soybean futures [4][22]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue high - level volatile adjustment next week [7]. - The gold market is expected to undergo a period of adjustment after a decline [10][11]. - The iron ore market should be treated with a volatile mindset, as supply is stable and steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [14][15]. - The glass market should be monitored for the support at the lower platform, with attention on the restocking situation as the peak season approaches [18][19]. - The pulp market is expected to maintain low - level volatility, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - On September 19, 2025, soybean oil futures rose and then fell [3]. - The domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and last week's actual crushing volume reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean supply is sufficient, leading to an increase in soybean oil output. As of September 5, the soybean oil commercial inventory reached 1.2513 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - On September 12, the domestic soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons [22]. Stock Index Futures - A - share market: The three major A - share indexes opened lower in the morning, fluctuated throughout the day, were mostly in the positive territory, and declined near the end of the session. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small negative line [8]. - News: In July, China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, and the holding scale reached a new low since 2009. Shanghai optimized and adjusted the policies related to the pilot individual housing property tax [7]. Gold - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the gold market declined, with the expectation of a period of adjustment [10][11]. Iron Ore - The supply side has stable shipments. Steel mills are showing signs of resuming production, and molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. As the National Day approaches in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting volume is basically stable, the factory inventory has slightly declined, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation as the peak season approaches [19]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong region remained stable today, and the port inventory started to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet, so it is expected to maintain low - level volatility [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton supply - demand situation is complex. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but short - term export sales are slow. In China, the current supply is tight, and prices are supported in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline if the peak season demand is weak. In the long run, the cotton price center may rise [2] - For sugar, the strong supply from Brazil is pressuring the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also weak due to poor sales and concerns about policies, but the downside space is limited [5][6] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains high due to slow port de - stocking and high domestic inventory. The demand is weak both at home and abroad. The short - term pulp price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,226 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In July, India's cotton imports were about 58,000 tons, a significant increase. As of now, the cumulative imports in the 2024/25 season are 662,000 tons, much higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the September USDA report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand data, and the US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve. Domestically, the inventory is low, but there is a risk of decline during the new cotton listing period if the peak season demand is poor [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term: oscillate between 13,700 - 14,300 yuan/ton; medium - term: bearish; long - term: bullish [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,529 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In the 2025/26 season as of September 1, Brazil's cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region decreased slightly [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is pressured by Brazil's strong supply, but there is support from the ethanol price. The domestic sugar market is weak due to poor sales and policy concerns, but the downside space is limited [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term: oscillate at the bottom and wait for a rebound [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5,042 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.51%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,135 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The supply pressure of pulp remains high, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. Attention should be paid to whether the terminal orders will improve during the seasonal peak season [8] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term: continue to oscillate at a low level [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The decline of soybean oil futures on September 17, 2025, was due to multiple factors, and the subsequent trend should be treated with a bias towards a downward oscillation [3][4]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillation in the short term [7]. - For gold, it is recommended to wait for the result of the Fed's September interest - rate decision before making a decision [11]. - Iron ore should be treated with an oscillation mindset as the start of restocking may support raw materials [13]. - Glass can be considered from a low - buying perspective [17]. - Pulp is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - Supply: The current domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and last week's actual crushing volume reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean inventory at ports increased to 9.661 million tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil also continued to accumulate, reaching 1.2513 million tons as of September 5, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - Demand: There is not much new demand currently. Although some groups have started small - package stockpiling, the external sales of bulk oil have decreased, and the concentrated release of stocking demand for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day has not yet arrived [4]. - International Market: The continuous weak operation of US soybean futures has weakened the support for domestic soybean oil [4]. - Inventory: On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory suppresses the price increase space [21]. A - share Market - Market Performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower and oscillated in the morning on September 18, 2025, and started to recover after 10:30. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index performed stronger than the Shanghai Composite Index [8]. - News: The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", and the market awaited the result of the Fed's September interest - rate decision at 0:00 on September 18 [7]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue high - level oscillation in the short term [7]. Gold - Market Condition: Gold oscillated after reaching a new high, and the market was waiting for the result of the Fed's September interest - rate decision [11]. - Recommendation: Wait for the news to land before making a decision [11]. Iron Ore - Supply: The shipment is stable, and steel mills are showing signs of gradual resumption of production. The molten iron is expected to maintain a high - level operation [14]. - Demand: As the National Day approaches in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [13][14]. - Outlook: It is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillation mindset [13]. Glass - Supply: The daily melting is basically stable, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly [18]. - Demand: The recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is not sufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation near the peak season [18]. - Outlook: After a small adjustment today, it can be considered from a low - buying perspective [17]. Pulp - Price: The pulp price in Shandong area remained stable today [24]. - Inventory: The port inventory started to decrease slightly and remained at a medium - high level [24]. - Outlook: There is expected to be a boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.06%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, pressuring steel prices. However, cost increases and production restrictions are relatively favorable. With the game of long and short factors, steel prices are expected to continue the fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated and declined, with a daily decrease of 0.38%. Currently, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are stable under the situation of increasing supply and demand. Coupled with production restrictions, it continues to support the relatively strong operation of coil prices. However, the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be tracked. Once demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate under high supply, and prices will be pressured. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level, with a daily decrease of 0.12%. Currently, benefiting from pre-holiday replenishment and policy favorable expectations, ore prices continue to operate at a high level. However, the resilience of ore demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals, and high-valued ore prices are still likely to be pressured. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In August 2025, China's air conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 199.646 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. Refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 70.189 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Washing machine production was 10.132 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 78.263 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Color TV production was 18.016 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 125.821 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [6]. - From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 732,000 units, a 4% year-on-year decrease compared to the same period in September last year and a 6% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 15.497 million units, a 9% year-on-year increase. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 774,000 units, a 3% year-on-year decrease compared to the same period in September last year and an 18% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 18.816 million units, a 12% year-on-year increase. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 438,000 units, a 6% year-on-year increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 10% increase compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy passenger car market was 59.8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.008 million units, a 25% year-on-year increase [7]. - In August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 65.71 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a daily output of 2.1196 million tons, a 1.5% month-on-month decrease; produced 60.8 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a daily output of 1.9614 million tons, a 1.5% month-on-month decrease; produced 68.73 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a daily output of 2.2172 million tons, a 0.4% month-on-month decrease. From January to August, key steel enterprises cumulatively produced 555 million tons of crude steel, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.2852 million tons; cumulatively produced 498 million tons of pig iron, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.0505 million tons; cumulatively produced 562 million tons of steel, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.3131 million tons [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,230 yuan, 3,220 yuan, and 3,306 yuan respectively, all down 10 yuan. The spot price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,420 yuan, 3,340 yuan, and 3,457 yuan respectively, all down 10 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,060 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan, unchanged. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 795 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 yuan, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.60 yuan and 23.86 yuan respectively, up 0.13 yuan and 0.17 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.72 yuan, up 0.22 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.90 yuan, up 0.40 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,168 yuan, up 0.06%, with a trading volume of 1,242,094 lots, a decrease of 723,262 lots, and an open interest of 1,963,371 lots, an increase of 7,123 lots. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,390 yuan, down 0.38%, with a trading volume of 500,938 lots, a decrease of 136,665 lots, and an open interest of 1,391,462 lots, an increase of 523 lots. The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 804.5 yuan, down 0.12%, with a trading volume of 254,268 lots, a decrease of 143,342 lots, and an open interest of 534,465 lots, an increase of 2,092 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), iron ore inventory (including national 45-port and 247 steel mills), and steel mill production (including blast furnace and electric furnace) [15][22][29]. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, with the weekly output of rebar decreasing by 67,500 tons month-on-month, continuing the high-level decline. However, the production reduction space during the peak season is questionable, and the inventory continues to accumulate to a high level, so the supply pressure relief is limited. At the same time, the demand for rebar continues to be weak, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 40,000 tons month-on-month, and the high-frequency transactions running at a low level. Both are at the low levels in the same period in recent years, and there are no signs of marginal improvement. Due to the poor performance of downstream industries, the weak demand is likely to pressure steel prices. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, pressuring steel prices. Relatively favorable factors are cost increases and production restrictions. With the game of long and short factors, steel prices are expected to continue the fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - Hot-rolled coil: There are changes at both supply and demand ends. After the end of production restrictions, steel mills are actively resuming production, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil has increased by 109,000 tons month-on-month, returning to the high level of the year, increasing the pressure. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coil has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 208,000 tons month-on-month, and the high-frequency transactions have also rebounded. However, the output of cold-rolled products, the main downstream product, continues to decline, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which may drag down the demand for hot-rolled coil. The relatively favorable factor is the low-price advantage, and exports may improve marginally. The improvement strength of hot-rolled coil under the different situations of domestic and foreign demand needs to be tracked. In general, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are stable under the situation of increasing supply and demand. Coupled with production restrictions, it continues to support the relatively strong operation of coil prices. However, the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be tracked. Once demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate under high supply, and prices will be pressured. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [38]. - Iron ore: There are changes at both supply and demand ends. After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly. Last week, the daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills both rebounded, returning to the previous high levels. And with the approaching holiday, the expectation of replenishment has fermented, and the demand for ore is performing well, continuing to support the ore price. However, it should be noted that the industrial contradictions in the steel market are constantly accumulating, and profits are continuously shrinking, so the room for demand recovery is limited. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports continues to decline, but the overseas ore shipments have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will bottom out and rebound. Coupled with the rapid recovery of domestic ore supply, the ore supply is expected to increase. In general, benefiting from pre-holiday replenishment and policy favorable expectations, ore prices continue to operate at a high level. However, the resilience of ore demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals, and high-valued ore prices are still likely to be pressured. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton inventory has reached a four - year low, and the supply - demand situation of US cotton in the new year is expected to improve, but the short - term upward space of US cotton is restricted. The domestic cotton price has strong short - term support, but there is also pressure during the new flower listing period. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, the international raw sugar price is under pressure but has a certain support, and the domestic sugar price is driven downward in the short term but the downward space is limited [5] - Regarding pulp, there is still supply pressure, and the demand side is weak. In the short term, the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,885 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,167 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] - According to the USDA's September report, in the 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton seasons, the global cotton output, consumption, and trade volume increased, and the ending inventory decreased [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand data in the new year has improved, but the US cotton export sales progress is slow. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the supply is tight at the end of the year, and the demand has improved marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure during the new flower listing period is large [2] Strategy - If the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fails or is not good enough, the Zhengzhou cotton price may fall. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day. The spot prices in Nanning, Guangxi and Kunming, Yunnan remained unchanged [4] - The USDA predicts that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 9.47 million short tons, and the inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2%. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of 2025 [4] Market Analysis - The international raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased production but has support from the ethanol price. The domestic sugar price has been following the international market down due to poor sales and concerns about syrup policies [5] Strategy - The short - term domestic sugar price is driven downward, but the downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound while the price oscillates at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,056 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (+1.32%) from the previous day. The spot prices of different pulp types in Shandong had different changes [6] - The import wood pulp spot market had mixed price trends, with different price adjustment ranges for different pulp types [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, although there are overseas pulp mill production cut news, the supply pattern has not changed significantly, and the domestic pulp import volume is expected to decline. The port inventory is high, so the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the global pulp consumption is weak, and the domestic demand is also lackluster [8] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen slightly. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the 8665 - 8935 range [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production is expected to decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. Demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the 52565 - 54525 range [10][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy ingot inventories are at high levels [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the sample oxygen - containing 553 production loss is 3237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Other factors: The basis is positive, inventory is negative, the disk is positive, the main position is negative [8]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The September production schedule is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Silicon wafer production and inventory trends vary. Battery cell and component production are showing positive trends, with components currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - Other factors: The basis is negative, inventory is neutral, the disk is positive, the main position is positive [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase or decrease, and spot prices of different grades are mostly stable [16]. - Inventories in various regions and ports have increased to varying degrees [16]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different trends, with some showing increases and others remaining stable [18]. - Inventory and production data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different changes [18]. 3.3 Price and Trend Charts - Industrial silicon: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance trends are presented through charts [20][26][27][35][37]. - Polysilicon: The disk price trend, cost trend, supply - demand balance trend, and downstream product price and production trends are presented through charts [23][63][65][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease in the short - term as refineries have recently reduced production. However, the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3371 - 3415 [7][9]. - The bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On September 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 127 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; the in - factory inventory was 0.642 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 0.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and in - factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventories are continuously increasing [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of different contracts showed various changes. For example, the 11 - contract futures price increased by 0.74% compared with the previous value [16]. - **Downstream Demand and Other Data**: The downstream demand开工率, asphalt coking profit, weekly shipment volume, weekly production, and inventory data all had different degrees of change. For example, the weekly shipment volume of the whole country was 263,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11%; the sample enterprise production was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86% [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Basis and Spread Trends**: The report provides the historical trends of the basis in Shandong and East China, as well as the spread trends of main contracts such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12, the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [18][21][24]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the profit trend of asphalt and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [36][39]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume [42][44][47]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and in - factory inventory inventory ratio [62][66][69]. - **Import and Export Situation**: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [72][75]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion), downstream mechanical demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [78][81][84]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of LLDPE is rated as 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [3] Report's Core View - LLDPE is expected to be short - term strong and mid - term range - bound. The short - term strength is due to macro sentiment, improving demand, and relatively low inventory. The mid - term may see a range - bound situation considering factors like supply changes [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The L2601 contract had a closing price of 7232, a daily increase of 0.81%, trading volume of 264,026, and a decrease in open interest of 6135 [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 contract basis was - 152 (previous day: - 89), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 20 (previous day: - 12) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the price was 7080 yuan/ton (unchanged); in the East China region, it was 7160 yuan/ton (up from 7140); in the South China region, it was 7300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Spot News - LLDPE market prices had small fluctuations of 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Linear futures rose, but while coal - chemical enterprises raised prices, some prices of Sinopec and PetroChina were lowered. Downstream demand was slow, leading to cautious purchasing and poor sales, and no obvious increase in the spot market [1] Market Condition Analysis - Affected by macro sentiment, PE is short - term strong. Demand for PE is improving as the agricultural film industry starts seasonal stockpiling. In September, the maintenance volume is similar to August, and the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in the East China region. Polyethylene social inventory is lower year - on - year, with a slight reduction this week and overall low pressure [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Later, be cautious about short - selling at low levels for PP, and it may be a volatile market in the medium - term [1] - Short - term demand improves month - on - month, but the cost side remains weak. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but there are also positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 6913, with a daily decline of 0.43%. The trading volume was 255,093, and the open interest increased by 19,156. The 01 - contract basis was - 193, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 23 [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PP in North China was 6700 - 6860 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6920 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6690 - 6900 yuan/ton yesterday [1] 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market declined slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Futures fluctuated at a low level, weakening cost support. Traders actively sold goods, and downstream demand was weak [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase due to the resumption of maintenance devices and new capacity expansion. However, there are positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]