两年期美债收益率涨0.70个基点，报3.9232%，本周累涨5.41个基点，7月22日跌至3.8207%之后反弹， 一度逼近3.93%。 周五（7月25日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌0.79个基点，报4.3878%，本周累计下跌2.77 个基点，7月22日跌至4.3262%之后反弹，一度逼近4.44%。 ...

在近期的金融市场上，美债收益率呈现短线攀升的走势，引发了投资者和经济学家的广泛关注。美债收益率是全球金融市场的重要风向标之一，它不仅反映 了美国国债的利息回报，也在一定程度上揭示了市场对美国经济未来走势的预期。美债收益率的变化，尤其是短期内的攀升，常常被视为市场对美联储货币 政策变化的反应，甚至可能意味着紧缩政策的提前布局。 美债收益率的上升，尤其是在短期债券市场上的表现，往往会直接影响到资本市场的风险偏好。长期以来，美联储一直采取宽松的货币政策，通过低利率和 量化宽松等手段刺激经济复苏。随着美国经济逐渐走出疫情阴影，通胀压力不断加大，市场对美联储是否会加快紧缩的节奏充满了讨论。近期美债收益率的 快速攀升，恰恰反映了市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期。 济数据来判断市场的反应。 美债收益率的短期攀升，确实反映了市场对紧缩预期的反应。虽然美联储的货币政策调整尚未完全明确，但市场已经提前对这一变化做出了反应。这种提前 反应既是市场对未来经济形势的预测，也是资本市场对于利率变化的敏感表现。在这种背景下，投资者在做出决策时，需要更加谨慎，密切关注美联储和全 球经济的变化，以便及时调整投资策略，迎接可能到来的市场波动。 当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Mitsubishi UFJ highlights that the Japanese yen is under pressure due to political instability following the ruling coalition's loss of majority in the House of Councillors election, making a rebound difficult [1] Group 1: Political Situation in Japan - The loss of majority seats by the ruling coalition in the House of Councillors election has led to increased domestic political uncertainty, which may hinder the yen's recovery [1] - There is a possibility of leadership changes in Japan, which could trigger a general election [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. short-term interest rates are expected to support the dollar, despite a slightly weak labor market indicated by recent jobless claims data [1] - The overall stability of the labor market aligns with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's stance against political pressure for interest rate cuts [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the US manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in July, marking the lowest level since December 2024 [4] - The European Central Bank has maintained its three key interest rates, aligning with market expectations [4] - The EU has approved a countermeasure plan against US tariffs, amounting to €93 billion [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 4.18% to 2120.00 [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 21057.96, up by 0.18%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.70% to 44693.91 [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price rose by 1.24% to $69.36 [5] - The US dollar index increased by 0.29% to 97.49 [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65% to 3605.73, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 1.19% to 2203.09 [5]

Group 1 - Silver market shows strong upward momentum, outperforming gold with a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% compared to gold's nearly 28% rise [1] - Current silver price is attempting to maintain above the critical level of $39 per ounce, following a prolonged supply shortage lasting 7 years [1] - Spot gold price has fallen below the important threshold of $3360.23 per ounce, while spot silver has shown a slight increase of 0.02% to $39.03 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates that the US composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6 in July, with the services PMI significantly increasing to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic activity [2] - Strong PMI data supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates, while also boosting the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [2] - Upcoming US durable goods orders data is crucial as it may provide new insights into gold price trends, with strong data potentially reinforcing economic recovery expectations and further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 3 - Spot gold experienced fluctuations with a downward trend, while spot silver remains near a 14-year high, hovering around levels last seen in September 2011 [3] - Silver's recent price action is supported by a weak dollar, with a weekly increase of nearly 2.36%, despite a slight daily decline of 0.50% [3] - Silver continues to trade well above its 9-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages, maintaining a bullish technical structure [3]

Group 1 - The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 3 basis points to 3.914% and 4.43% respectively, while the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.96% [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were reported at 217,000, lower than the previous week by 4,000 and below the expected 227,000 [2] - New home sales in June grew by only 0.6% to 627,000 units, falling short of the expected 645,000 units [2] Group 2 - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, marking the first formal visit by a U.S. president in nearly 20 years, during which he expressed a desire for lower interest rates [3][4] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates, leading to a significant sell-off in European bonds, with 10-year German bond yields rising by 10.7 basis points to 2.705% [4] - The UK PMI index for July decreased from 52.0 to 51.0, indicating only slight growth in business activity, while UK bond yields saw minor increases [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 2-year yield reaching 0.844% and the 10-year yield at 1.603% [5] - The U.S. Treasury has no bond issuance scheduled for the upcoming Friday, but plans to issue a total of $448 billion in bonds on July 28 and 29 [5][6] - The actual net financing needs of the U.S. Treasury for the second quarter reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion [7]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has led to a stabilization and rebound in gold prices, suggesting potential support levels for bullish investors [1] Group 1 - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased, impacting market dynamics [1] - Gold prices are showing signs of recovery, indicating a possible opportunity for investors [1] - The market analysis suggests that bullish investors should pay attention to specific support levels for gold [1]

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Group 1 - The US dollar index continues to weaken, with a decrease of 0.47%, closing at 97.392, indicating potential further declines in August [1] - Investment demand for precious metals is rising as the SPDR Gold Trust has increased its gold holdings by over 10 tons in two consecutive days, while the iShares Silver Trust has added 500 tons in the first two days of the week [1] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, with expectations of unchanged interest rates but speculation about potential rate cuts in October, which supports gold prices as a hedge during uncertain times [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of 3439.0 before retreating to a low of 3418.0, maintaining an upward trend within the hour timeframe [2] - The moving average system indicates a bullish trend for gold, with the 60-period moving average above the 100-period moving average, both showing upward momentum [2] - Oil prices are under pressure, with a potential for a slight breakdown and continued downward movement, suggesting a cautious trading approach [2]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京7月23日电 距离美联储下周的利率决定还有几天，投资者谨慎入场操作，1年期以上美债收益率周二（22日）走低。 据美国财政部数据（下图），截至当天收盘时，2年期美债收益率下跌2BPs至3.833%，10年期美债收益率下跌3BPs至4.342%，30年期美 债收益率下跌4BPs至4.911%。2年期美债与10年期美债收益率继续收窄至52BPs。 "我们需要做的是检查整个美联储机构，看看他们是否成功，"贝森特周一在接受当地媒体采访时说。"美联储是否成功完成了它的使 命？" 经济数据方面，投资者将密切关注周三公布的6月成屋销售数据，以及周四公布的6月初请失业金人数和新屋销售数据，他们还将等待周 五公布的上月耐用商品订单数据。 美联储将于7月29日至30日召开会议，届时将决定是否降息。根据芝交所美联储观察工具，联邦基金期货交易员预计，美联储将维持目 前4.25%-4.5%的目标利率区间不变的可能性超过95%。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普几个月来一直在呼吁美联储主席下台，这场冲突仍是投资者关注的焦点。 美国财政部长贝森特周二表示，鲍威尔不需要辞职。不过，贝森特重申了本周早些时候的言论，即美联储作 ...