Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the easing of US-China trade tensions has led traders to retract their bets on aggressive monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with current market pricing suggesting only three rate cuts for the remainder of the year [1][4] - Previously, traders anticipated that if demand for Australian products from China declined or a global economic recession occurred, the RBA would be forced to implement significant rate cuts [4] - The reduction in bets on RBA rate cuts reflects the cautious approach taken by RBA Governor Michele Bullock in response to the uncertainty created by the Trump administration's tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - Economists expect that the upcoming data will show Australia's unemployment rate remaining at 4.1% for April, and a recent report indicated that core inflation has fallen within the RBA's target range for the first time in over three years [4] - The expansionary fiscal policy in Australia is another reason investors believe the RBA's easing cycle may be shallow, with expectations of a more expansionary stance under a Labor-majority government [4] - Some economists still believe that the uncertainty stemming from Trump’s policies may lead the RBA to consider deeper rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting a potential reduction of the cash rate to 3.1% by the end of the year [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley strategists indicate that while sentiment towards the US stock market is improving, it is too early for investors to signal a "full alarm lift" [1] - The team led by Michael Wilson identified four factors necessary for a sustained rally, noting progress in only two: optimism around a trade agreement and stabilization of earnings forecasts [1] - The remaining two factors—more dovish Federal Reserve policies and 10-year Treasury yields below 4% without recession data—have not yet been achieved [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the US and China reached an important consensus on trade issues, leading to a jump in S&P 500 futures and a rebound in risk assets [3] - The S&P 500 index has recovered about half of its nearly 19% decline since February due to concerns over a global trade war, with the US government beginning negotiations with trade partners [3] - Approximately 30 companies have withdrawn or suspended earnings guidance due to tariff uncertainties, particularly in the automotive, durable goods, and industrial sectors [3] - Since the earnings reports were released, the average stock price increase in these sectors has risen [3] - The S&P 500 index has surpassed the previous resistance level of 5500 and is back in the range of 5500-6100, with further significant increases dependent on the details of the US-China trade agreement and a re-acceleration of earnings forecasts [3] - The next critical technical test for the S&P 500 index is at the convergence of the 200-day and 100-day moving averages (5750-5800) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2509 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively, suggesting an oscillation approach. The market sentiment is bearish, and coking coal maintains a weak trend [1]. - For the 2509 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively, also suggesting an oscillation approach. Due to insufficient cost support, coke oscillates and weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Cost**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1030 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%, and the cost of equivalent futures warehouse receipts is about 1003 yuan/ton [5]. - **Policy Impact**: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were announced at a press conference, but the coking coal futures still oscillate weakly due to obvious fundamental pressure and a loose supply pattern [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The safety supervision environment in domestic main production areas is stable, coal production in Shanxi is rising, and the customs clearance efficiency at the China - Mongolia 288 Port is acceptable. In the week of May 9, the combined daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 114.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons. Since late March, the recovery of coke output on the demand side has not reversed the loose supply situation of coking coal, and the market sentiment remains bearish [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Fundamental Situation**: The fundamental pattern of coke has not changed much, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand support is good, but the growth rate on the demand side has started to decline, and the room for further increase in molten iron output is limited [6]. - **Price and Cost**: As of the latest quotation, the FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at the port is 1440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, and the cost of equivalent futures warehouse receipts is about 1585 yuan/ton; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at the port is 1320 yuan/ton, and the cost of equivalent warehouse receipts is about 1454 yuan/ton [6]. - **Policy and Market Outlook**: On May 7, a "package" of incremental policies were announced. Although there is short - term demand for coke, overseas risks and cost - side pressure from coking coal still exist. It is expected that the main contract of coke will maintain low - level oscillation in the near future [6].

Group 1 - The implementation of monetary easing policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, is seen as just the beginning of policy adjustments aimed at stimulating market demand and reducing funding costs [1][2][3] - The expectation is that the combination of domestic monetary easing and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will lead to increased market liquidity, which is essential for the growth of listed companies [3][4] - Investors are advised to pay attention to the underlying movements of institutional funds rather than just stock price trends, as this can provide insights into market opportunities [4][6] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "institutional shakeout" is highlighted, where institutions may intentionally depress stock prices to clear out speculative positions before a potential rally [10][11] - Data analysis tools, such as the "Bole System" app, are recommended for tracking institutional trading behaviors and identifying key signals that indicate market trends [6][11][13] - The presence of "short covering" signals and "institutional inventory" data can help investors understand the current trading dynamics and the potential for future price movements [11][13]

21世纪经济报道记者赖镇桃 广州报道 票型罕见地分裂成三方，反映出政策制定者的分歧，英国央行行长贝利的发言却释放出些许鹰派信号。 此前市场还预期这次决议声明可能会删除"渐进谨慎"的一贯表述，加快降息节奏，但5月8日的发布会 上，贝利仍然强调货币宽松政策延续"渐进和审慎"的基调不松口。 略偏强硬的表态，打压年内降息预期，掉期市场显示6月份英国央行降息的概率由50%下降到20%左 右，助推英镑、英国国债收益率快速走高。 下次降息时机或再押后 英国央行的降息，早在市场的意料之中。3月份，英国消费者价格指数（CPI）连续第二个月回落，同 比增速从2月的2.8%降至2.6%。 通胀降温提供了成熟的条件，美国滥施关税则是这轮降息的主要动因。据新华社报道，英国央行指出， 美国对全球加征关税以来，全球贸易政策不确定性加剧，金融市场出现波动，这种不确定性和新的关税 措施导致全球经济增长前景变弱。 美国滥施关税对英国经济的冲击已经有所显现。标普日前公布的数据显示，4月英国综合采购经理指数 （PMI）从3月的51.5下跌至48.5，为2023年10月以来首次跌入收缩区间，服务业活动也在连续17个月扩 张后首次跌至荣枯线以下，主要由 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall "oscillation" approach [1]. - Coking coal has high supply pressure and a weak fundamental situation, which drags down the futures to run at a low level. The follow - up trend of Sino - US trade issues needs attention [5]. - Although there are short - term favorable policies for coke, overseas risks and cost - side pressures from coking coal still exist, and the long - short game is intense, with the futures main contract likely to maintain low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1008 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were introduced, but the domestic main production areas have a stable safety supervision environment, coal production in Shanxi remains high, and the reduction in imports is expected to be limited, resulting in high supply pressure [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the quasi - first - grade flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Situation**: A "package" of incremental policies were introduced this week, and after a period of fermentation, the market will refocus on Sino - US trade issues and the commodity's own fundamentals. Although short - term demand is okay, overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures still exist [6].

报 告 正 文 实质性货币宽松重启。 央行宣布下调7天逆回购利率0.1个百分点至1.4%，政策利率自去年9月后再度调降。从 幅度来看，本次降息10BP，不及去年9月的20BP，后续LPR预计也将跟随下调0.1%。从时点来看， 一方面， 美国对中国加征关税将给我国出口带来冲击，其对于经济的不利影响或在二季度开始显现，货币政策优先目标 有必要过渡至经济增长； 另一方面， 市场预期美联储降息最早在7月落地，汇率压力有望随之缓解，货币政策 实质性宽松的窗口打开。 降准补充流动性缺口。 央行宣布全面降准0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，本次降准后 整体存款准备金率的平均水平将从6.6%降至6.2%。 首先， 随着特别国债在4月下旬开启发行，叠加专项债发 行提速，二季度政府债净供给压力或将抬升，流动性缺口加大，因此货币政策与财政协同发力，保持流动性充 裕，后续央行也可能重启公开市场买入国债操作，以配合政府债券的发行； 其次， 后续每月的买断式逆回购 到期规模较高，5月到期9000亿元，6月和7月到期规模均为1.2万亿，续作的压力较高； 最后， 我国商业银行 净息差去年末已降至1.52%的低位，降准提供 ...

随着有关美国在贸易谈判方面取得进展的报道越来越多，导致避险需求受到抑制，黄金价格连续第三天下跌。周四亚盘，现货黄金一度大跌逾50美元，最低 触及3235.88美元/盎司，跌幅超过1.5%。受黄金拖累，白银也一度跌超1%。 周三，美国财长贝森特表示，法国财长提出的相关实行零关税的想法并非不切实际。特朗普还称，加拿大总理卡尼已向其致电，希望达成一项协议，双方将 于近期会面。 即使在数据显示由于关税实施前进口量大幅激增，美国经济在今年年初出现了自2022年以来的首次收缩之后，黄金仍从上周创下的历史高点进一步回落。 美国经济负增长促使交易员加大了对美联储货币宽松政策的押注，目前市场预计该央行今年将进行四次25个基点的降息，以避免经济衰退。通常情况下，较 低的利率对黄金有利，因为黄金本身不产生利息。 今年以来，黄金价格已上涨约25%，这主要是由于美国总统特朗普迅速变化的贸易政策扰乱了市场，并引发了对全球经济放缓的担忧，投资者纷纷将黄金作 为避险资产。此外，流入黄金支持的交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）的资金、各国央行的购买行为，以及来自中国的强劲需求，也支撑了金价的上涨，但这 个全球最大黄金消费国的实物消费量已经有所下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential restructuring of the global trading system, focusing on the implications of the U.S. dollar's strength and the possibility of a new international monetary framework, particularly in light of recent comments from President Trump regarding currency devaluation by trade partners [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Dollar and Currency Valuation - The U.S. dollar is considered overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency, which imposes costs on U.S. manufacturers and exporters [2][5]. - President Trump has criticized the devaluation of currencies like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, asserting that such actions create an unfair disadvantage for the U.S. [2][5]. - The actual exchange rate of the dollar has strengthened, with the International Bank for Settlements indicating that the dollar's real exchange rate is at a high level compared to the pre-Plaza Accord period [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the Plaza Accord of 1985, which aimed to induce a depreciation of the dollar through coordinated intervention by major economies [5][6]. - The scale of the foreign exchange market has significantly increased since the Plaza Accord, complicating any potential coordinated intervention today [6][7]. - The historical context highlights that the intervention during the Plaza Accord involved approximately $10 billion, while recent interventions, such as Japan's, have reached much higher amounts, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Implications - Achieving a new agreement similar to the Plaza Accord would require participation from emerging economies, which presents significant challenges compared to the past [6][7]. - There is speculation that Trump may push for a weaker dollar through tariffs, which could lead to increased pressure on countries like Japan to adjust their monetary policies [7]. - The potential for a new monetary agreement, referred to as the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," remains uncertain, but if realized, it could have profound implications for the foreign exchange market and the global economy [1][7].

划重点 ① 本轮黄金牛市由地缘政治风险溢价、央行购金潮及货币宽松政策共同驱动。全球央行黄金储 备占比十年内已翻倍，反映对美元体系的结构性质疑。地缘冲突频发推升避险需求，奠定黄金 长期配置逻辑。 ② 金价虽创新高，但仍有明显上行空间：其经通胀调整后的实际购买力仅为 1980 年峰值的 40%；市场指标显示黄金 ETF 当前持仓规模较高峰时期仍有明显差距。因此，央行购金趋势叠 加矿产成本刚性支撑，黄金上行空间明确，回调压力可控。 ③ RockFlow 投研团队认为，投资者可通过黄金 ETF（低费率+高流动性）、黄金矿股（杠杆效 应）等灵活布局。黄金在投资组合中具备独特价值：波动吸收器（股债双杀时正回报概率 78%）、通胀传导器（三年对冲有效性0.86），更是货币体系变革中的终极支付媒介。 RockFlow 本文共3725字， 阅读需约16分钟 2024 年全球金融市场最引人注目的现象，莫过于黄金价格持续突破历史新高。以美元计价的金价在一年内上涨40%，从 1861 美元飙升至 2642 美 元，创下自 1971 年布雷顿森林体系解体以来最强劲的年度表现。 RockFlow 投研团队认为，这一轮黄金牛市并非偶然的短 ...