Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by 219.29 points (-0.44%), while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw slight increases of 47.89 points (+0.20%) and 2.28 points (+0.03%) respectively [2] - The semiconductor sector weakened significantly, with Intel's stock plummeting over 16% due to first-quarter revenue expectations falling below market forecasts of $12.51 billion [2][3] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropping by 0.15% [3] Commodity Performance - Gold and silver prices surged, with silver futures reaching a historic high of $100.115 per ounce, marking a 40% increase year-to-date, while gold approached $4,948 per ounce, reflecting a 14.5% increase this year [4][6] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to factors such as U.S. fiscal concerns, global monetary system restructuring, and geopolitical tensions [6] - Base metals like tin and nickel also saw significant price increases, with LME tin rising over 6% to $55,150 per ton (up nearly 36% year-to-date) and LME nickel increasing by nearly 4% to $18,695 per ton [6][7][8] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market continued to weaken, with Bitcoin falling below $89,000, experiencing a nearly 0.4% decline [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4850 per ounce, is driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions, significant central bank purchases, and inflation concerns, indicating a complex market dynamic that ordinary investors may not fully grasp [1][4][6]. Short-term Factors - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the territorial disputes in Greenland and aggressive U.S. trade policies, have heightened market fears, leading to a 30% increase in gold futures trading volume [8][10]. - The Federal Reserve's substantial interest rate cuts, including a historic 75 basis point reduction, have weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive as a store of value [10][12]. - The anticipation of further tariffs has prompted investors to stockpile gold, reminiscent of past market reactions to similar situations [12][13]. Mid-term Support - Central banks are expected to continue their aggressive gold purchases, with projections indicating an average annual acquisition of over 1000 tons from 2023 to 2025, providing a solid foundation for gold prices [4][17]. - Concerns over global credit risks and rising government debt, projected to exceed $300 trillion by 2025, position gold as a hedge against these uncertainties [17][19]. - The correlation between gold prices and global inflation rates has been strong, with gold serving as a natural hedge against inflation, particularly as inflation remains high [19][21]. Long-term Logic - The shift towards de-globalization and geopolitical tensions has transformed the global economic landscape, enhancing gold's role as a stable asset amid uncertainty [22][24]. - Historical trends show that as countries engage in resource competition and confrontational policies, gold's status as a universally accepted asset becomes increasingly significant [26][28]. - The ongoing trend of increasing gold reserves among BRICS nations, rising from 10% to 15%, underscores gold's strengthening monetary properties and its potential for long-term price stability [21][30]. Investment Recommendations - For ordinary households, a gold allocation of 10% of total assets is recommended, with a potential increase to 15%, while exceeding 20% may be considered speculative [30][32]. - Preferred investment vehicles include physical gold bars, gold ETFs, and paper gold, avoiding high-cost jewelry and speculative trading in gold futures [32][34]. - Caution is advised against misleading advertisements for gold buybacks and speculative investments, emphasizing the importance of reliable channels for gold transactions [34][36].

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching 24,903.00 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 8.23% as of January 23 [1]. Market Data - By 2025, global silver supply is projected to be 32,100 tons, while demand is expected to reach 35,700 tons, with industrial silver accounting for 60% of total demand [2]. - As of January 22, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported silver warehouse receipts at 589,052 kg, a decrease of 11,727 kg compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The People's Bank of China plans to conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on January 23, 2026, to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2]. Institutional Perspectives - According to Zhongjin Wealth Futures, the precious metals market is in a "self-spiral" upward environment, and since the silver short squeeze began in November last year, it is advised to follow the market rather than attempt to predict its peak [4]. - Zhongcai Futures notes that a weaker dollar, expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and geopolitical uncertainties contribute to a strong outlook for precious metals. The long-term view remains bullish on silver due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and global central bank gold purchases [4].

Group 1: Commodity Sector Outlook - The commodity sector remains a key focus for 2026, but caution is advised regarding specific small metals [2][9] - The long-term potential for significant price declines in resource products is low due to inelastic supply and steady demand growth [2][26] - Even with material substitution and downstream control measures, the overall upward price trend is expected to continue [2][26] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The core strategy for new consumption involves identifying the strongest marginal changes among numerous SKUs each year and closely tracking their growth rates [2][10] - The global consumption beta is currently poor, indicating that structural opportunities still exist despite a lower ceiling compared to traditional sectors like liquor [10][13] - The market is becoming increasingly fragmented, necessitating a focus on data and marginal changes rather than personal preferences [10][12] Group 3: AI Industry Insights - The AI industry is rapidly evolving, with many subfields beginning to form commercial closed loops, provided that underlying technologies continue to improve [2][15] - AI investments have become a core industry influencing macroeconomic trends in both the US and China, with significant scale [15][17] - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for AI, with numerous large model companies expected to go public, marking a critical phase for the industry [2][15] Group 4: Resource Price Dynamics - Resource prices have been on a gradual rise since 2023, driven by increasing extraction costs and decreasing reserves [5][63] - The trend of resource price increases is supported by geopolitical factors and strategic stockpiling of rare metals by various countries [6][66] - Chinese mining companies have shown strong manufacturing advantages, leading to higher profit margins compared to their Western counterparts [7][67] Group 5: Investment Strategy and Market Behavior - A prudent investment strategy involves controlling positions when direction is unclear and increasing investments as trends become more defined [4][21] - The market's reaction to AI-related investments has been volatile, with significant fluctuations in stock prices reflecting broader economic uncertainties [16][79] - The importance of understanding the long-term potential of technologies while managing short-term volatility is emphasized [19][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures may face pressure, stock index futures' volatility center may gradually rise, and precious metals' market volatility may increase. Different commodity futures have different trends and investment suggestions based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Open Market Operation**: On January 22, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 30.9 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy Expectation**: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures may face certain pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 0.19%, - 0.51%, 0.53%, and 0.91% respectively [8]. - **Analysis**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and corporate profit growth is at a low level, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,087.58 with a decrease of 0.43%, and the silver main contract closed at 23,339 with an increase of 0.90% [10]. - **Analysis**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [12]. - **Analysis**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the inventory is slightly higher than last year. It is expected that the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [14]. - **Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has decreased month - on - month, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened. Technically, it shows signs of stabilizing after a decline. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [16]. - **Analysis**: The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coking enterprises has increased. However, the demand for coke has decreased due to the decline in iron - making production. Technically, it may continue to be weak in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon rose by 0.48% and 0.94% respectively. The spot prices also changed [19]. - **Analysis**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues. The cost is at a low level, and the downward space is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened higher and oscillated, closing above the 5 - day moving average [20]. - **Analysis**: Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US is expanding Chevron's oil production license in Venezuela. The market is concerned about the over - supply pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward, closing above the moving average group [23]. - **Analysis**: The import of fuel oil in Asia from the West has increased, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is in good condition. The price has risen due to increased downstream demand after the holidays and expected pre - Spring Festival demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [24][25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market showed a rising trend, and the Yuyao LLDPE market adjusted prices [26]. - **Analysis**: The开工 rate has declined due to low - temperature and labor shortages, but the demand for modified PP in high - end manufacturing fields is growing steadily. The profit of external - propylene - purchasing enterprises has recovered, but PDH is still in deep losses. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose by 4.50%, and the Shandong mainstream price increased [28]. - **Analysis**: The rise in the synthetic rubber market is supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operation rates, but weak downstream demand limits the increase. It is expected to be mainly in a strong - oscillation pattern [28][29][30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main natural rubber contracts and 20 - grade rubber contracts rose, and the Shanghai spot price increased [31]. - **Analysis**: The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, and the demand from downstream tire enterprises has improved. However, the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31][32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose by 2.21%, and the spot price increased [33]. - **Analysis**: In the short term, it is the traditional off - season for PVC, but the market may oscillate strongly under policy expectations. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty of demand [33][34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main urea contract rose by 1.30%, and the Shandong Linyi price increased [35]. - **Analysis**: In the short term, urea prices will maintain a strong - oscillation pattern, driven by export demand and cost support. The daily production is expected to remain high, and the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is increasing, while the demand from the board industry is decreasing [35][36]. p - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose by 2.13%. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable [37]. - **Analysis**: The PX operating rate has declined, and the cost of crude oil may provide support. In the short term, it may oscillate and adjust. Investors can participate in the range and pay attention to external crude oil fluctuations and macro - policy changes [37][38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.75% [39]. - **Analysis**: The PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has not changed much recently, and the demand has decreased seasonally. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory build - up in January and February. Investors should operate carefully and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose by 4.51% [40]. - **Analysis**: The supply has decreased slightly due to increased domestic and foreign device maintenance, but the port inventory is under pressure, and the pre - arrival volume has increased significantly. It is expected to have pressure on the price in January and February. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40][41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose by 2.31% [42]. - **Analysis**: The supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and the sales have improved. The terminal factories are mainly consuming raw - material inventories. The low inventory may provide support at the bottom. It is expected to follow the cost - end logic and oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and pre - holiday stocking by downstream enterprises [42]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 3.39%, and the processing fee has recovered [43]. - **Analysis**: The production load of bottle - grade PET has slightly decreased, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still the cost end. It is expected to follow the cost - end oscillation. Investors should participate carefully, control risks, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [43][44]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 soda ash contract closed at 1185 yuan/ton, rising 1.46% [45]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains loose, and the price is stable. The production has decreased slightly, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream demand is average. It shows obvious off - season characteristics. It is recommended to be cautious as the market lacks substantial support in the short term [45][46]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 glass contract closed at 1057 yuan/ton, rising 0.67% [47]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of glass remains loose. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory has increased, and the sales of enterprises have slowed down. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48][49]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 caustic soda contract closed at 1948 yuan/ton, falling 0.51% [50]. - **Analysis**: Caustic soda shows obvious winter seasonal characteristics, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The market is in a weak state, and the outlook is not optimistic [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 pulp contract closed at 5380 yuan/ton, rising 0.34% [51]. - **Analysis**: The inventory of pulp has continued to accumulate, and the spot trading is light. The prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp have declined. The downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 2.55% to 168,780 yuan/ton [52]. - **Analysis**: The macro - liquidity has increased, and the supply of lithium carbonate is still high, while the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased, and the price has support at the bottom. However, the short - term volatility may increase [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 100,270 yuan/ton, falling 0.43% [53]. - **Analysis**: The inflation in the US is still high, the international situation is tense, and the supply of copper is extremely tight. However, the high price has suppressed the actual demand, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The price is supported in the long term but restricted in the short term. The current risk is relatively high [53][54]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 24,070 yuan/ton, rising 0.21%, and the main alumina contract closed at 2729 yuan/ton, rising 1.15% [55]. - **Analysis**: The supply of bauxite is abundant, the production of alumina is in excess, and the production of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the ceiling. The demand is suppressed in the short term, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to short alumina on rallies before the Spring Festival. The long - term outlook for aluminum prices is still optimistic, but there may be a short - term correction [55][56]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 24,530 yuan/ton, rising 0.74% [58]. - **Analysis**: The supply of zinc raw materials is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, and the consumption will weaken seasonally. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price may decline under pressure [58][59]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai lead contract closed at 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [60]. - **Analysis**: The supply of lead is restricted by the shortage of raw materials, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory of primary lead provides support, while the off - season demand restricts the upward space. It is expected to oscillate within a range [60][61]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai tin contract rose by 1.7% to 417,250 yuan/ton [62]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production recovery. The demand shows certain resilience supported by emerging fields. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to risk control [62]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose by 0.28% to 142,730 yuan/ton [63]. - **Analysis**: The macro - situation and Indonesian policies have affected the nickel market. The cost of nickel production is expected to rise, but the demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The market is in an over - supply situation, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [63]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract rose by 1.50% to 2768 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose by 0.55% to 8084 yuan/ton. The spot prices also changed [64]. - **Analysis**: The import of soybeans has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in loss, and the cost support has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [64][65]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has reached a two - month high. The export of palm oil products in Malaysia has increased, and the production has decreased [66]. - **Analysis**: The production of palm oil may decline, the demand is strong, and the inventory in China is at a medium level. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after a correction [66][67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has little change, and the import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in China has changed [69]. - **Analysis**: China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has increased. Investors can consider holding positions to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69][70]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external - market cotton fluctuated [71]. - **Analysis**: The USDA supply - demand report is favorable to the market. The domestic cotton production is high, but the inventory build

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the world will be in a macro - background of deepening "de - globalization" and the resonance of loose fiscal policies of major economies. Supply - chain vulnerability and demand expansion will lead to a tightening of resource supply - demand relations, and intensify strategic competition for key minerals and energy [1]. - China's economy will be based on the principle of "internal stability and external control" in 2026. Exports will remain a mainstay, investment will play a supporting role, and consumption will focus on equipment updates and service - scenario innovation. The de - dollarization trend and the weakening of the US dollar credit will bring opportunities for international capital inflows into RMB assets, and Sino - US competition will focus on technology and supply - chain security [1]. - In 2026, a macro - hedging portfolio should be constructed under the premise of seeking certainty. Commodity assets will have prominent allocation value, with the order of commodity > equity > bond. Attention should be paid to potential uncertainties such as recessions in Europe and the US, domestic inflation repair, geopolitics, and real - estate risks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Cycle Changes: Resonance of "De - globalization" and Loose Fiscal Policies (1) The Wave of De - globalization: From Great - Power Games to the G2 Pattern - International events such as the COVID - 19 pandemic, the Russia - Ukraine war, and the Trump administration's high - tariff policies have led to the wave of de - globalization, which is essentially the reshaping of the world order [6]. - Traditional capitalist powers like the US and the UK are withdrawing from international alliances, while emerging - market countries led by China are exploring new international cooperation models. A G2 competition pattern between China and the US is gradually taking shape in key technologies and resources [7]. - The wave of de - globalization has increased the vulnerability of the global supply chain, deteriorated the global trade environment, and accelerated the rotation and increased the volatility of global major assets. The credit systems of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds have been shaken [9]. (2) Loose Fiscal Resonance: Upward Global Manufacturing and Inventory Cycles - In 2026, the fiscal policies of major overseas economies such as the US, Europe, and Japan are expected to expand further. The US "big and beautiful" bill may increase the fiscal deficit by $4.1 trillion in the next decade, and EU countries will increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Japan will implement a trillion - level economic stimulus plan. This will lead to an increase in economic activity demand and drive up the global manufacturing and inventory cycles [15]. (3) Resource Shortage: Tightening Supply - Demand Balance - De - globalization has increased supply - chain vulnerability, and loose fiscal policies will stimulate demand, leading to a tightening of the global industrial supply - demand relationship. Countries will pay more attention to resource competition for national security. The US is seizing resources through trade control and military actions. Core resources such as minerals and energy will see price increases in 2026 [16]. II. The Game between Endogenous Momentum and External Changes (1) Endogenous Economic Transformation: Long - Term Policy Guidance of the 15th Five - Year Plan - In 2026, as the starting year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China aims to achieve a reasonable GDP growth rate while gradually realizing structural transformation. New - quality productivity sectors such as AI, biomedicine, and new energy will become new pillar industries [17]. - Investment will be the supporting force for achieving economic growth goals, while consumption will be the main growth driver. Exports will remain a mainstay due to factors such as reduced Sino - US trade - dispute volatility, fiscal expansion in developed economies, and the rise of emerging markets. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and new areas will support economic growth, and real - estate's negative impact on the economy is expected to turn neutral [18][19][23]. - In the consumption area, policies will focus on releasing existing demand through subsidies and exploring incremental demand by expanding service - consumption scenarios [27]. (2) External Changes and Game: Coexistence of Challenges and Opportunities - The weakening of the US dollar credit due to the expiration of the "petro - dollar" agreement and the establishment of a new cross - border settlement mechanism provides an opportunity for RMB assets. International capital will flow back to the Asia - Pacific market and drive up the prices of RMB - denominated assets. China can promote RMB internationalization [30]. - Sino - US relations will remain a key variable in 2026. The two countries have long - term competition and phased balance in technology and resource issues. The competition pattern will not change significantly, and extreme decoupling is unlikely [31]. III. Guidance on Major Asset Allocation: Constructing a Macro - Hedging Portfolio (1) Between "Change and Constancy": Unchanging Competition Relations and Changing Cycle Rotations - The long - term competition exists among all global economies due to limited resources and growing economic demand. China's economic recovery has three main lines: technological independence, price repair, and expansion of domestic demand. The US will try to avoid recession and stagflation, and continue to rely on the stock market and AI to support the economy [33]. (2) 2026: Seeking Certainty and Constructing a Major Asset Portfolio: Commodity > Equity > Bond - In 2026, asset allocation should pursue certainty and balance risks. Attention should be paid to risks such as recessions in Europe and the US, slow domestic inflation repair, intensified de - globalization, and a downward real - estate market [36]. (3) Grasping the Rhythm and Main Lines in the Short, Medium, and Long Terms - Based on economic - cycle theory, in the high - inflation and high - growth stage (2026 - 2027 expected), commodities will be dominant. Different commodity sectors will rotate in the order of risk pricing, expected trading, and real - situation regression [37]. - In 2026, the four quarters will be dominated by different factors: Q1 is dominated by short - term liquidity, driving up the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals; Q2 focuses on correcting the mid - term narrative; Q3 verifies the long - term logic; Q4 is for brewing cross - year expectations [39].

Key Insights - The U.S. CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, both remaining stable compared to previous values. The prolonged government shutdown may reduce the data's predictive value for future Federal Reserve policy. Market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will remain unchanged in January 2026 [1][20] - China's foreign trade in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, marking nine consecutive years of growth. In December, trade volume hit a record high of 4.26 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year. Rare earth exports surged by 32% to 4,392 tons in December, totaling 62,585 tons for the year [2][21] - The total social financing in China for 2025 amounted to 35.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan from the previous year. The total RMB loans rose by 16.27 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 26.41 trillion yuan. By the end of December 2025, the M2 money supply reached 340.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, with a net cash injection of 1.31 trillion yuan for the year [3][21] Market Overview - The financing margin ratio for investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges has been raised from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investor rights [4][21] - The central bank has implemented a series of measures to support high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in re-lending and rediscount rates, and an increase of 500 billion yuan in re-lending for small and micro enterprises [5][22] - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [6][22] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai 50 index declining by 1.74%, while the ChiNext index increased by 2.58%. The central bank's interest rate cuts and strong domestic export and loan data contributed to a positive market sentiment [7][28] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.34%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.37%, reflecting improved export and loan data [8][30] - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.29%, amid rising geopolitical tensions and renewed trade war concerns [9][32] Bond Market Insights - In the bond market, long-term credit bonds saw a greater decline than short-term bonds, with the 5Y AA+ and AA- bonds dropping by 6 basis points. Overall, government bond rates also decreased, influenced by the central bank's policy adjustments [10][34] - U.S. Treasury yields increased, particularly the 3Y yield, which rose by 8 basis points, amid concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence following Powell's investigation [11][37] Economic Outlook - China's export resilience is evident, with December's export growth rising from 5.9% in November to 6.6%. Social financing data indicates a stabilization in RMB loan growth at 6.3% year-on-year [12][38] - The U.S. CPI remained stable at 2.7% year-on-year, suggesting limited changes in interest rate expectations, with a 4% probability of a rate cut in January 2026 [13][38]

出品｜搜狐财经 2025年，A股总市值站上100 万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。2026年A股市场又 将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，展望 及预测2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 1月21日，来自天弘基金的基金经理沙川做客搜狐财经直播间，对2026年市场贵金属领域的投资机会进 行了深入解读，重点分析了黄金、白银相关资产的布局前景。 "黄金还是处于牛市之中。" 沙川在直播中明确表示，在逆全球化趋势下，作为主要国际结算货币的美 元信用持续走弱，但全球贸易体系依然围绕美元运转。国际社会正在寻找能够分担国际贸易结算职能的 替代选择，而黄金是公认的选项之一。 去年白银涨幅约150%，显著超过黄金的表现引发了广泛关注。"白银与黄金在投资逻辑上既有相似又有 不同。"他解释道，黄金的贵金属属性更为纯粹，价格主要受金融因素驱动；而白银则兼具较强的工业 属性。 沙川分析称，本轮行情初期，白银涨幅明显滞后，导致金银比一度达到100左右的高位。"随后的白银大 ...

出品｜搜狐财经 作者｜汪梦婷 编辑｜杨锦 更多访谈点击查看《基金佳问》专栏 2025年，A股总市值站上100 万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。2026年A股市场又将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，展望及预测2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产 配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 1月21日，来自天弘基金的基金经理沙川做客搜狐财经直播间，对2026年市场贵金属领域的投资机会进行了深入解读，重点分析了黄金、白银相关资产的布 局前景。 "黄金还是处于牛市之中。" 沙川在直播中明确表示，在逆全球化趋势下，作为主要国际结算货币的美元信用持续走弱，但全球贸易体系依然围绕美元运 转。国际社会正在寻找能够分担国际贸易结算职能的替代选择，而黄金是公认的选项之一。 去年白银涨幅约150%，显著超过黄金的表现引发了广泛关注。"白银与黄金在投资逻辑上既有相似又有不同。"他解释道，黄金的贵金属属性更为纯粹，价 格主要受金融因素驱动；而白银则兼具较强的工业属性。 沙川分析称，本轮行情初期，白银涨幅明显滞 ...

1月21日，黄金等贵金属价格持续上涨，截至发稿，现货黄金价格维持在4860美元/盎司附近，现货白银 价格则在94美元/盎司附近。此外，沪铝、沪铜价格均在近期创下新高。 商品价格的大涨，吸引了二级市场资金的关注。数据显示，截至1月20日，今年以来单只股票型ETF （交易型开放式指数基金）最高净流入达108.61亿元，属于1只有色金属ETF。 近期，AI（人工智能）相关赛道热度不减，大宗商品价格持续创新高也吸引了较高关注。 实际上，去年有色板块已走出了一波强势表现，今年热度不减，相关ETF继续攀升。在众多基金经理看 来，这与当下AI算力对相关商品的需求激增相关。但也有基金经理提醒，结构性行情延续意味着内部 分化加剧，想再赚超额收益，难度将明显提高。 有色ETF净流入第一 AI行情持续，贵金属价格大涨。数据显示，截至1月21日，现货黄金最新价格站上4800美元/盎司，直逼 4900美元大关；现货白银最新价格则突破了90美元/盎司。此外，国内市场的碳酸锂期货价格也在近期 创下新高，突破17万元/吨，最新价格在16.67万元/吨；沪铝、沪铜此前亦刷新高点，近几日小幅回落。 去年单只有色ETF最高涨超100%，多只涨幅逾 ...