Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing inheritance dispute within the Zong family, particularly focusing on the legal battle involving the heirs of China's former richest man, Zong Qinghou, and the implications for HSBC, the bank managing a significant trust fund related to the case [3][4]. Group 1: HSBC's Business Strategy - HSBC has undergone a significant restructuring, focusing on profitability by divesting non-core assets in regions like Canada, Russia, and Argentina while expanding in India [7][8]. - The bank's Hong Kong subsidiary is a major profit center, contributing 63.4% of HSBC's total pre-tax profit in 2024, highlighting the importance of the Hong Kong market to HSBC's overall strategy [7][9]. - The wealth management segment of HSBC has shown strong profitability, with a profit margin of 44.4%, outperforming the investment banking segment, which has a profit margin of 40.8% [12][13]. Group 2: Organizational Changes - HSBC is restructuring its business segments to enhance service delivery, allowing for a more integrated approach to client needs, particularly for high-net-worth individuals [14][15]. - The new organizational structure aims to provide comprehensive services to clients, combining wealth management and corporate banking under a unified framework [13][14]. Group 3: Leadership and Governance - The current chairman, Mark Tucker, is set to leave HSBC, creating uncertainty regarding succession and leadership continuity [21][22]. - The search for a new CEO has faced challenges, with potential candidates declining offers, indicating the difficulty in finding a suitable leader for such a large and complex organization [22].

新湖期货：市场对美联储在9月降息预期回升金价小幅反弹 西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 道富投资管理公司：继续将黄金的回调视为买入机会 Midas Touch Consulting：短期金价正在横盘整理长期上行目标看4000美元 正信期货：市场乐观情绪减退利多贵金属价格 新湖期货表示，美国6月JOLTS职位空缺数据不及预期，招聘有所放缓，招聘率跌至去年11月以来的最 低水平，数据支撑劳动力市场逐步降温。美国20大城市房价在5月连续第三个月下跌，为2022年底以来 最大跌幅，拖累全美房价增速。市场对美联储在9月降息的预期小幅回升至60%上方，对金价反弹形成 一定支撑。近期，受累于关税给市场带来的不确定性整体回落，黄金总体呈现震荡局势，关注中美关税 谈判进展。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势，将继续支撑金价 中枢上行，后续黄金可能仍偏强。关注本周美联储议息会议和非农就业数据。 西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大 趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。如果美国经济 增速放缓，美联 ...

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Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, A-shares saw the three major indices turn positive, while the non-ferrous metal sector continued to adjust [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) fell by 1.05%, with leading declines from stocks such as Shenghe Resources, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.69%, with a premium rate of 0.17%, and stocks like Mingpai Jewelry and Hengbang Shares also saw significant declines [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Trends - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) has recently experienced a net inflow of over 24 million yuan in the past five trading days [1] - The total scale of 53 gold-themed funds reached 246.9 billion yuan as of July 27, an increase of 12.85 billion yuan from the end of last year, marking a growth rate of 108.53% [2] - All 53 gold-themed funds have seen their net values rise this year, with 22 funds showing a growth rate exceeding 30% [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metal ETF tracks an index focusing on industrial metals like gold, copper, and aluminum, with respective weights of 30.6% for copper and 16.2% for gold [1] - The gold stock ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Index, with the top ten holdings accounting for over 66.13% of the fund [2] - Analysts suggest that the current global trade and financial environment, characterized by "de-globalization" and "de-dollarization," is favorable for gold's investment value and safe-haven appeal [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it's expected that there won't be a trending market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock indices, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered [10][11]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [13][14]. - In the case of rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on low - position long opportunities after the correction [15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for low - position buying opportunities after the correction [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, investors are advised to wait and see [20][21]. - Regarding ferroalloys, long - position exit opportunities can be considered when the market continues to rise, and long positions at low - support intervals can be considered if there is a decline [23]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [28]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][31]. - For natural rubber, it's expected to oscillate strongly [32][33]. - For PVC, it's expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [34][38]. - For urea, it will fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [39][40]. - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the future, and investors should participate cautiously [42]. - For PTA, it may oscillate in the short term, and investors should participate in the range [43]. - For ethylene glycol, investors should be cautious about the upside space in the short term and participate in the range [44][45]. - For staple fiber, it may oscillate following the cost, and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [46]. - For bottle chips, it's expected to oscillate following the cost [47][48]. - For glass, continue to pay attention to spot trading and regional de - stocking; in the long - term, focus on the implementation of capacity clearance of old production lines [49][50]. - For caustic soda, the positive support is relatively limited, and it's affected by macro - sentiment recently [52]. - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and pay attention to policy trends and actual spot transactions [54][55]. - For lithium carbonate, it's advisable to watch more and act less and control risks [56]. - For copper, there is still a basis for an upward trend [58]. - For tin, it's expected to oscillate [59]. - For nickel, it's expected to oscillate [60]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long opportunities in the support interval for soybean meal after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider call option opportunities in the support interval after the decline [62]. - For palm oil, consider long opportunities after the correction [64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long opportunities [65]. - For cotton, it's recommended to short far - month contracts in batches at high prices [67][68]. - For sugar, it's recommended to wait and see [71]. - For apples, it's recommended to wait and see [75]. - For live pigs, consider holding previous short positions [77]. - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. - For corn and starch, consider virtual - value call option opportunities in the previous low - level interval for near - month corn contracts; corn starch follows the corn market [83]. - For logs, the market has returned to the actual spot situation [87]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced [5]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [6]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The national industrial and information technology conference emphasized measures to expand domestic demand [8][9]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and China's economy has resilience. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic [10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement [12]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue [13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Policy expectations dominate the market, and the actual supply - demand pattern is secondary [15]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the core influencing factor. The supply - demand pattern is still strong, but it may adjust in the short term [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit down. The direct cause was the position - limit measure, and the deep - seated reason was the excessive previous rise. The supply - contraction policy has become a reality [20]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures closed down. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while the demand is weak [22][23]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the number of US oil rigs decreased. OPEC+ is unlikely to change the production plan [24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The fuel oil inventory in Japan and Singapore has changed. The supply in the Asian market is sufficient, but trade agreements are beneficial to the shipping market [27]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The raw material price has rebounded, and the supply and demand situation has changed. Wait for the market to stabilize [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. The supply is affected by rainfall, and the demand has recovered slightly. It's expected to oscillate strongly [32]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply is excessive, but the downward space may be limited. It's expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. The supply - demand situation has weakened recently, and it will fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [39]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The supply load has decreased, and the import volume has changed. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and it may oscillate and adjust [41][42]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply and demand have changed little, and the cost has some support. It may oscillate in the short term [43]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply pressure has increased, but the inventory has decreased. Be cautious about the upside space in the short term [44]. Staple Fiber - Last trading day, staple fiber futures fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It may oscillate following the cost [46]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips futures fell. The device maintenance has increased, and the demand has recovered. It's expected to oscillate following the cost [47]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory has decreased, and the price in some regions has risen. The market sentiment fluctuates, and the follow - up needs to focus on spot trading and de - stocking [49][50]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production has increased, and the inventory has changed. The positive support is limited [51][52]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [53][54]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand has improved slightly, but the trading is inactive. Be cautious and control risks [56]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The spot premium is expected to remain weak, but there is still a basis for an upward trend [58]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption is weak. It's expected to oscillate [59]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply is excessive, and the consumption is not optimistic. It's expected to oscillate [60]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures closed down. The US soybean yield is expected to be good, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. Consider different investment opportunities for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The export volume has decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. Consider long opportunities after the correction [63][64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed weakened. The domestic import volume has changed, and the inventory situation is different. Consider long opportunities [65]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton oscillated at a high level. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it's recommended to short far - month contracts in batches at high prices [66][67][68]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated strongly. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory and import volume have changed. It's recommended to wait and see [69][71]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose sharply and then fell. The expected production reduction has been falsified. It's recommended to wait and see [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand is average. Consider holding previous short positions [76][77]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas fell. The supply is increasing, and it's recommended to consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [78][80]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn and starch futures rose. The US corn yield is expected to be good, and the domestic supply - demand is approaching balance. Consider option opportunities for corn and follow the corn market for starch [81][83]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The market has returned to the actual spot situation [84][85][87].

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF (518880) experienced a slight decline of 0.46% to 7.354 CNY, with a trading volume of 10.67 billion CNY, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [1][2]. Fund Performance - Over the past 10 trading days, the gold ETF saw a net outflow of 23.17 billion CNY, while the last 5 days recorded a net outflow of 17.42 billion CNY, followed by a net inflow of 5.13 billion CNY in the last 2 days [1]. - As of July 28, 2025, the circulating scale of the gold ETF reached 576.41 billion CNY [1]. Market Analysis - Long-term outlook remains bullish for precious metals due to ongoing global central bank gold purchases and persistent supply-demand gaps in silver, despite short-term bearish pressures from easing risk aversion as global trade negotiations progress [2]. - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Senate and the potential increase in fiscal deficit rates are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [2]. Product Overview - The Huaan Gold ETF, established on July 18, 2013, is one of the earliest gold ETFs in China, benchmarked against domestic gold spot price returns, and has established a leading position in terms of scale and performance [3]. - Investors are advised to consider phased investment or dollar-cost averaging strategies when participating in the Huaan Gold ETF (518880) and its linked funds [3].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **commodity supercycle** and the impact of **anti-involution policies** on the **midstream materials and manufacturing industries**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: Anti-involution policies may lead to a revaluation of midstream materials and manufacturing industries, similar to the utility price increase trend observed in 2023-2024. Focus on industries with negative ROC minus VAC indicators, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment** [1][2][5]. 2. **Drivers of Commodity Supercycle**: The commodity supercycle is driven by **de-globalization** and **de-dollarization**. De-globalization restricts factor flow, raising inflation, while de-dollarization leads to increased commodity pricing. Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s commodity bull market due to similar conditions [3][9]. 3. **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The Renminbi's exchange rate is highly correlated with market trends. In the medium term, the price gap between China and the US supports Renminbi appreciation, although short-term risks from US debt issuance could pressure the A-share market [1][6]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the **Barbell Strategy**, allocating 80% of investments to safe assets like **gold, banks, resources, and utilities**, and 20% to sectors with potential catalysts such as **domestic computing power, robotics, and Hainan Free Trade Zone** [1][7]. 5. **US Treasury Account and Interest Rates**: The US Treasury General Account (TGA) needs to be replenished quickly, which may lead to a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to near or above 5%. This could impact dollar liquidity and put pressure on the A-share market, particularly growth-style stocks [1][8]. 6. **Historical Context of Anti-Involution**: The current anti-involution policy is seen as part of a broader strategy to address economic deflation, with historical precedents in 1999 and 2015-2016. The focus should also be on demand-side policies [5][11]. 7. **Measuring Industry Involution**: The difference between ROIC and WACC serves as a measure of industry involution. Negative values indicate industries that are not creating value, with many midstream manufacturing and materials sectors currently in this state [12]. 8. **Recent Performance of Involved Industries**: Industries with high involution levels, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment**, have shown significant recent performance improvements, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Price Trends**: From July 2022 to the present, gold and silver prices have increased by 100%, while platinum has risen by over 40%. Scarce metals have also seen significant price increases, suggesting a likely upward trend in commodity pricing [10]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: Certain commodities like **alumina and live pigs** have seen price increases not due to anti-involution but rather as part of the broader commodity supercycle, indicating the complexity of market dynamics [15][16]. 3. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: In the absence of a fundamental reversal in globalization trends, a suggested asset allocation strategy includes 80% in safe assets and 20% in technology and AI sectors, providing a balanced approach to risk management [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the investment landscape, particularly highlighting the challenges posed by the shift from globalization to de-globalization and demographic changes affecting economic growth [1][3]. Core Insights - The transition from globalization to de-globalization presents significant challenges for investors accustomed to previous market conditions [1][3]. - Demographic shifts, particularly aging populations in regions like Europe and China, are expected to slow global economic growth rates, impacting long-term economic forecasts [1][9]. - Despite global trends, there remain substantial investment opportunities in U.S. technology companies, although the U.S. stock market is projected to underperform compared to global markets in 2025 [1][4]. - High debt levels in developed countries, comparable to those during World War II, pose potential risks if interest rates rise, increasing debt repayment costs [1][11]. - The role of the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset is diminishing, as evidenced by its increasing negative correlation with gold and the rising correlation with alternative assets like Bitcoin [1][13]. Summary by Sections Globalization and Economic Trends - The report discusses the reversal of globalization trends and the implications of demographic changes on economic growth, particularly the decline in the working-age population in the U.S., Europe, and China [1][9][10]. U.S. Market Opportunities - Investment opportunities in U.S. technology firms remain robust, despite a forecasted underperformance of the U.S. stock market relative to global markets in 2025 [1][4]. Debt and Economic Stability - The report highlights the concerning levels of debt in developed nations, with the U.S. debt repayment costs projected to exceed defense budgets in 2024, a historical indicator of potential negative outcomes [1][12]. Dollar Dynamics - The report emphasizes the changing perception of the U.S. dollar, noting its declining status as a safe-haven asset and the increasing relevance of alternative assets in investor portfolios [1][14][17]. Future Considerations - Investors are advised to monitor indicators such as the dollar's exchange rates, its share in global transactions, and its correlation with risk assets to gauge shifts in perceptions of its stability [1][12].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic importance of resource commodities is gaining consensus in the market amid rising de-globalization trends, with a significant commodity market rally since 2020, covering various resources from coal to gold, copper, silver, and rare earths [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The new fund manager of Western Lide Fund, Guan Haoyang, emphasizes that supply is more critical than demand at this investment juncture, and beta is more important than individual stocks [1][6] - Guan believes that the ongoing commodity market rally, which has been active for five years, still presents opportunities as resource commodities transition from "cyclical goods" to "strategic assets" [1][6] Group 2: Research Background - Guan has focused on cyclical stock research since entering the industry in 2016, expanding his expertise from steel to various sectors including construction, materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and coal over nine years [2] - He has developed a comprehensive research framework for cyclical commodities, recognizing the high barriers between different sub-industries [2] Group 3: Resource Classification - Guan categorizes resource stocks into four types: 1. **Cyclical Assets**: Assets with explosive performance during uptrends, such as gold and silver, where price tracking is crucial [4] 2. **Thematic Assets**: Assets like rare earths that are rising in price but have not yet shown performance, focusing on price trends and market sentiment [4] 3. **Value Assets**: Stable price assets with low valuations, such as copper, where company growth and valuation matching are key [5] 4. **Dividend Assets**: Stable price assets with high dividend yields, like oil and coal, where finding assets with potential dividend recovery is essential [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Guan assesses that the current commodity cycle, which began in 2020, still holds potential due to rigid supply constraints [6] - He identifies three main supply constraints: insufficient capital expenditure, a decrease in quality mines, and the elevation of resource commodities to strategic assets through administrative measures by various countries [6][7] - The restructuring of supply chains driven by de-globalization is expected to create long-term benefits for industrial metals like copper [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the pulse market driven by exchange rates continues, with a focus on the upcoming issuance schedule of US Treasury bonds, indicating a potential liquidity disturbance due to the need to replenish over 500 billion USD in the TGA account by the end of September [1][18] - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a superficial phenomenon, with the real driving force behind the rise in commodity prices being the beginning of a new super cycle in commodities, influenced by de-globalization and de-dollarization [2][29] - The report suggests that "anti-involution" is merely the first step in a debt-clearing cycle, emphasizing the need to pay attention to demand-side policies following the supply-side changes [3][34] Group 2 - ROIC-WACC is identified as a key indicator for measuring the degree of "involution," with current negative values concentrated in the midstream materials and manufacturing sectors, indicating deeper involution compared to previous years [4][42] - The report notes that the current super cycle in commodities is just beginning, driven by factors such as the restructuring of global interest distribution and the weakening of the dollar, which shifts pricing from demand to supply [2][29] - The analysis indicates that industries like coking coal, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment are still in a state of "true involution," suggesting potential for further price increases [4][51] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of "hard currency" and "hard technology" investments, recommending a focus on gold, banks, resources, and public utilities as safe assets, alongside domestic AI computing capabilities as a growth area [5][66] - It is noted that the current economic environment is characterized by significant deflationary pressures, with historical parallels drawn to previous debt-clearing cycles [3][34] - The report suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical observation point for future demand-side policies, which are essential for sustaining economic recovery [3][36]