（本文原标题为 世界汽车工程师学会联合会（FISITA）终身名誉主席，清华大学教授、汽车产业与技术战略研究院（TASRI）院长赵福全：抓住"新 汽车"机遇进行战略布局） "'新汽车'是移动的空间、互联的节点、数据的载体、计算的单元、智能的终端、储/供能的装置，也是创新的载体和战略性新兴产业。未来汽车将是 继互联网时代的手机之后万物互联时代最大的'母生态'，同时也是新质生产力、新型工业化最大的抓手。"近日，在第二十届中国经济论坛平行论坛 ——"展望'十五五' 巩固车优势"现场，世界汽车工程师学会联合会（FISITA）终身名誉主席，清华大学教授、汽车产业与技术战略研究院（TASRI）院长 赵福全在主旨发言中分享了一系列新思考、新观点。 身处历史巨变的拐点 "站在历史巨变的拐点上，人类社会正在发生翻天覆地的变化；'十五五'将是一个继往开来、承前启后的重要时期。"赵福全谈道，面对百年未有之大 变局，汽车产业需要再盘点、再出发，重新进行战略布局。 "新汽车"时代将迎来革命性变革 人工智能（AI）正在给汽车产业带来一场史无前例的重大变革。 赵福全认为，汽车制造业作为现代工业"皇冠上的明珠"，在拥抱AI的大背景下，正加快进 ...

Market Overview - A and H shares continued to be negatively impacted by the Federal Reserve's lower-than-expected interest rate cuts, with significant declines in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals [1] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90%, Shenzhen Component Index down 5.13%, and ChiNext Index down 6.15% [3] - Defensive sectors like banking, media, food and beverage, and defense showed relative resilience, while sectors like power equipment, basic chemicals, and steel experienced significant declines [1][3] Industry Dynamics - The pharmaceutical industry index fell 6.88%, with sub-sectors like chemical pharmaceuticals and bioproducts declining by 7.02% and 7.46% respectively [5] - Eli Lilly became the first global healthcare company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, driven by its GLP-1 weight loss drug contributing 55% of its revenue [7] - Moderna announced the termination of three mRNA projects and secured a $15 billion loan, focusing future efforts on oncology and rare diseases [7] - Innovative drug companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics reported significant revenue growth, with BeiGene's global revenue reaching $1 billion, up 51% year-on-year [8] Technology Sector - The technology sector faced significant adjustments, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping 7.18% [10] - Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $57 billion, exceeding expectations, with data center revenue of $51.2 billion, up 66% year-on-year [17] - Google launched the Gemini 3 model, achieving breakthroughs in multi-modal understanding and reasoning capabilities, surpassing competitors [12] - Alibaba's AI application "Qianwen" quickly rose to the fourth position in the App Store rankings, aiming to become a personal AI assistant [13] Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focusing on technological transformation and de-globalization, with an emphasis on AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - The market is expected to enter a bottoming phase after two weeks of significant adjustments, with a long-term view of a structural bull market [1][3] - The focus is on identifying undervalued technology players within the overseas supply chain [2]

2025 年 11 月 21 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.21%报 115.870 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.485 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.935 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.462 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，11 月 20 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3000 亿元 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market environments [5]. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a decline in treasury bond futures. With the current macro - economic situation and market conditions, there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day showed mixed performance. Given the current domestic economic situation, market sentiment, and external factors, the risk of a significant decline is low, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day witnessed price increases. Considering the global trade and financial environment, central bank actions, and the current price level, it is advisable to wait and see for a long - position opportunity [10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Alumina supply is relatively loose, and aluminum needs to beware of seasonal consumption pressure and profit - taking, with a possible phased correction [49]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day remained flat. With tight supply of zinc concentrates and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Due to supply and demand factors, lead prices are expected to operate within a range [54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. With tight supply and certain demand support, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day had an increase. Facing supply - demand contradictions, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Considering supply - demand relationships and technical aspects, prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With a weak supply - demand pattern and technical resistance, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day had a significant decline. Based on supply - demand changes and technical analysis, there may be a short - term correction, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during the correction [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day had a decline. With high - level production decline, weak demand recovery, and cost support, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [18]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day had an upward trend. Considering supply - demand factors and market news, there are concerns about supply surplus, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the short - term [20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With mixed supply - demand factors, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [23][24]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With improved downstream demand in some areas, investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With supply and demand factors, there is still room for short - term price increases, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day had a decline. With an oversupply situation, attention should be paid to supply - side changes [33]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. It is expected that the market will decline slightly in the next period, but the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day had an increase. With improved short - term supply - demand structure, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day had an increase. With low processing fees, low inventory, and cost factors, it is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and caution is needed [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day had a decline. With increased supply and inventory, it is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory and supply changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With high - level supply, stable demand, and enhanced cost - driving, it is expected to fluctuate with costs [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day had an increase. With raw material price support and stable supply and demand, it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day had a significant increase. With strong supply and demand, inventory is being depleted, and attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [45]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day had different performances. With sufficient soybean supply and improved demand for soybean oil, investors can focus on long - position opportunities for soybean oil and consider exiting long positions for soybean meal [59]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day had an increase. Affected by supply - demand factors, investors can consider long - position opportunities during corrections [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day had a decline. With supply - demand and external factors, investors can consider a long - position strategy for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With increased global and US production and inventory, and domestic supply and demand factors, cotton prices are expected to be weak [66]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day had a decline. With global production expectations and domestic supply pressure, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [70]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day had a high - level volatile operation. With current inventory and market conditions, apple prices are expected to operate strongly [74]. - **Pigs**: The previous trading day had a price increase. With sufficient supply and uncertain demand, investors can consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day had a price decline. With high - level supply and weak demand, investors can consider closing short positions gradually [79]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day had an increase. With new - season corn supply pressure and inventory factors, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [81].

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached a 17-year high of 1.765%, driven by expectations of significant fiscal spending under Prime Minister Kishida [2] - The 40-year bond yield hit a historical peak of 3.695%, while the 20-year yield reached 2.815%, marking the highest levels since 1999 [2] - The anticipated fiscal expansion is expected to lead to increased government borrowing, contributing to the sell-off in Japanese bonds [2] Group 2: French Investment in China - Approximately 2,800 French companies have established operations in China, making France the largest European investor in the Chinese market [3] - China is the fourth-largest trading partner for France, with French investments in China accounting for one-third of the total [3] - The "France 2030" investment plan aims to inject €54 billion over five years to promote re-industrialization, benefiting foreign investors [3] Group 3: Xiaomi's Financial Performance - Xiaomi reported a total revenue of 113.1 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with adjusted net profit rising 80.9% to 11.3 billion yuan [7] - The smart electric vehicle and AI segment achieved a record revenue of 29 billion yuan, growing 199.2% year-on-year, marking its first profitable quarter [7] - The smartphone and AIoT segments showed modest growth, with challenges anticipated in the automotive sector due to reduced subsidies and increased competition [7] Group 4: Pinduoduo's Revenue Growth - Pinduoduo's Q3 revenue reached 108.28 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing 17% to 29.33 billion yuan [8] - The growth was primarily driven by online marketing services and transaction service revenues, although the pace of growth has slowed [8] - Increased R&D expenses, up 41% year-on-year to 4.33 billion yuan, are aimed at enhancing the company's competitive edge in AI and overseas markets [8][9] Group 5: Baidu's AI Business Performance - Baidu's total revenue for Q3 was 31.2 billion yuan, a 7% decline, while net profit fell 36% to 3.77 billion yuan [10] - The AI business saw over 50% growth, with AI cloud revenue up 33% and AI native marketing services skyrocketing 262% to 2.8 billion yuan [10] - Despite the decline in traditional advertising revenue, Baidu's AI initiatives are showing promise, although profitability remains a concern [10][11] Group 6: Nvidia and Microsoft's Investment in Anthropic - Nvidia and Microsoft announced a collaboration with Anthropic, involving investments of up to $100 billion and $50 billion, respectively [12] - Anthropic plans to purchase $30 billion worth of Azure cloud capacity, indicating strong demand for AI services [12] - The investment cycle raises concerns about potential financial losses if AI products do not generate sufficient returns, despite ongoing advancements in AI technology [13]

Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index saw a rise followed by a decline. The aquaculture sector surged, with stocks like Zhangzi Island and Dahu Co. hitting the daily limit. Gold stocks also rose in the afternoon, with Shen Zhonghua A reaching the daily limit and Zhongjin Gold touching the limit. The military industry performed actively, with Jianglong Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Defense hitting the daily limit. Conversely, popular sectors in Fujian and Hainan saw declines, with Haima Automobile and Sanmu Group hitting the daily limit. Overall, over 4,200 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets were in the red, with a total transaction volume of 1.74 trillion yuan [1]. Hot Topics Aquaculture - The aquaculture concept saw a significant rise today, with Zhongshui Fishery achieving four consecutive limits, and stocks like Kaichuang International, Guolian Aquatic Products, Dongfang Ocean, and Haodangjia also hitting the daily limit. According to CCTV news, on November 19, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced the suspension of imports of Japanese seafood due to strong public outrage over Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's remarks on major issues like Taiwan. This situation suggests that even if Japan exports seafood to China, there will be no market for it [4]. Organic Silicon - The organic silicon sector saw renewed activity in the afternoon, with Chenguang New Materials hitting the daily limit and Dongyue Silicon Materials and Yuanxiang New Materials rising over 10%. A seminar on the high-quality development of methyl chlorosilane enterprises is being held in Shanghai, which may lead to the establishment of production reduction targets [6]. Gold - The gold sector experienced another significant rise, with Shen Zhonghua A hitting the daily limit and Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold following suit. Market data indicated that the main gold futures contract surged over 1% in the afternoon, approaching 940 yuan per gram [8]. Military Industry - The military sector remains active, with stocks like Jianglong Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Defense hitting the daily limit. Reports indicate heightened concerns regarding Japan's military stance, as highlighted in a recent article from the Liberation Army Daily [14]. Lithium Battery - The lithium battery sector showed signs of recovery, with lithium carbonate futures breaking through the 100,000 yuan mark, and prices of electrolyte additives continuing to rise [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire report industry are provided. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: The risk of a significant decline is low, and it is advisable to take long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily observe and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to correct in the short term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17] - **Ferroalloys**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] - **Crude Oil**: In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: Focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [25][26] - **Polyolefins**: Temporarily observe [28] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] - **PVC**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [36][37] - **PX**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] - **PTA**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] - **Short - Fiber**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] - **Copper**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] - **Aluminum**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] - **Zinc**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] - **Lead**: Will operate within a range [53][54] - **Tin**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] - **Nickel**: May oscillate [57] - **Soybean Oil and Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] - **Palm Oil**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] - **Rapeseed Meal and Oil**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] - **Cotton**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] - **Sugar**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] - **Apples**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] - **Hogs**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] - **Eggs**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to observe for corn and wait for the release of supply pressure; corn starch may follow the corn market [83][86] Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw all treasury bond futures close higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising 0.06%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **Open - Market Operations**: On November 18, the central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan [5] - **Policy News**: 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption infrastructure and the construction of the commercial circulation system [5] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures down 0.41%, 0.23%, 0.85%, and 0.69% respectively [8][9] - **Economic Data**: In October, the unemployment rates of different age - groups in the labor force were announced, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow [9] - **Market Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures decline, with gold down 1.18% and silver down 1.96% [11] - **Positive Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and the expected Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals [11] - **Negative Factors**: The recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. Supply is affected by poor profitability, and inventory is high [13] - **Outlook**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend [13] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate [15] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has declined, but there was a recent increase in daily pig - iron output. Supply is abundant, and inventory is higher than last year [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and there may be resistance to rebounds [15] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures [17] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand is weak. Coke supply has decreased, and demand may weaken [17] - **Outlook**: May continue to correct in the short term [17] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures decline [19] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Manganese ore supply has decreased, and costs have increased. Production is declining, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating [19] - **Outlook**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and close low [21] - **Industry News**: The CFTC report is suspended, the number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and Russia has been attacked [21] - **Outlook**: There are concerns about oversupply, but the attack on Russia is beneficial to prices. In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities [22][23] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned, but there is an analysis of supply and demand [24] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative, while Russia's sanctions and reduced Sino - US trade frictions are positive [24][25] - **Outlook**: Focus on shorting opportunities [25][26] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a weak and volatile PP market in Hangzhou and a stable LLDPE market in Yuyao [27] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PP downstream demand has a mixed performance, with some industries seeing an increase and others remaining weak [27] - **Outlook**: Temporarily observe [28] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main synthetic rubber contract rise 0.91% [29] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Raw material prices have rebounded, production capacity utilization has increased, and inventory has increased [29][30] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main natural rubber contract rise 0.33% [32] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [32] - **Outlook**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PVC contract decline 1.46% [34] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory has decreased slightly [34][35] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main urea contract rise 0.36% [36] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is at a certain level [36] - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36][37] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PX contract decline 0.53% [38] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, and imports have decreased slightly [38] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PTA contract decline 0.55% [40] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has adjusted, demand is stable, and processing fees have decreased [40] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main ethylene glycol contract decline 0.64% [41] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, inventory has increased, and demand is limited [41] - **Outlook**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main short - fiber contract decline 0.64% [42] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization is high, demand is weak, and processing fees are at a certain level [42] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main bottle - chip contract decline 0.56% [43] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, export growth has slowed, and processing fees are at a certain level [43] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lithium carbonate contract rise 0.93% [44] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving, with inventory decreasing [44][45] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main copper contract decline 0.03% [46] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by mine production problems, and demand is weak except for the copper - foil sector [46] - **Outlook**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main aluminum contract decline 0.16%, and the alumina contract decline 0.36% [48] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Alumina supply is abundant, and aluminum demand is weakening [48] - **Outlook**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main zinc contract rise 0.11% [51] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply of zinc concentrate is tight, production has decreased, and demand is flat [51] - **Outlook**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lead contract decline 0.49% [53] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance, and demand is in the off - season [53] - **Outlook**: Will operate within a range [53][54] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main tin contract rise 0.68% [55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is tight, and demand has shown some resilience [55][56] - **Outlook**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main nickel contract decline 0.02% [57] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Nickel ore prices are stable, production may be affected, and demand is weak [57] - **Outlook**: May oscillate [57] Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw soybean meal down 0.33% and soybean oil up 0.60% [58] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil - mill压榨 is in a loss, and demand for both products has some improvement [58][59] - **Outlook**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures rose, and exports decreased in November [60] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Malaysian inventory is at a high level but may decrease, and domestic inventory is at a medium level [60] - **Outlook**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose [62] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Chinese rapeseed imports have decreased, and inventory is at different levels [62][63] - **Outlook**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures decline, and overseas cotton rose [65] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global and US cotton production and inventory have increased, and domestic supply pressure is high [65][67] - **Outlook**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic and overseas sugar futures decline [69] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Brazil is in the seasonal production - reduction period, India has strong production - increase expectations, and domestic imports are expected to be high [69][71] - **Outlook**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures oscillate at a high level [73] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is lower than last year, and quality is poor [73][74][75] - **Outlook**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] Hogs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main hog contract decline 1.16% [78] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is abundant, and demand is affected by the season. Inventory and cost are at certain levels [77][78] - **Outlook**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main egg contract decline 0.87% [82] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, but there are signs of improvement. Demand is weak [79][80][82] - **Outlook**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main corn contract decline 0.50% and the starch contract decline 0.96% [83] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Corn supply is abundant, and demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but inventory is high [83][84][86] - **Outlook**:

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has improved market sentiment, which is expected to support copper and aluminum prices [1][16] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a pause due to persistent inflation concerns [2][17] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has officially commenced production, with a resource volume exceeding 4 billion tons and an annual capacity of 60 million tons [3][18] - A significant gold deposit has been discovered in China, with a total gold content of 1,444.49 tons, marking the largest single gold mine found since the establishment of the People's Republic of China [4][19] - Yahua Group has made a breakthrough in lithium sulfide technology, which is expected to accelerate the industrialization of solid-state batteries [5][20] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a slight increase of 1.07% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.25 percentage points [10] Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - Copper prices have increased by 1.41% to $10,846 per ton, while COMEX copper inventories rose by 3.23% to 381,296 tons [21][23] - Aluminum prices decreased slightly by 0.12% to $2,858.5 per ton, with LME aluminum inventories increasing by 0.94% [21][23] - Gold prices on COMEX rose by 1.91% to $4,084.40 per ounce, with SHFE gold prices increasing by 3.47% to 953.20 yuan per gram [38][39] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices surged by 9.15% to 80,500 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand from energy storage and AI sectors [41][46] Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - For industrial metals, the report recommends focusing on companies with integrated operations, such as China Hongqiao, and suggests关注紫金矿业, 洛阳钼业, and others for copper investments [55][56] - In precious metals, the ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold is highlighted, with recommendations for stocks like 赤峰黄金 and 山东黄金 [55] - Strategic metals are expected to benefit from the easing of export restrictions, with a focus on cobalt, antimony, and tungsten sectors [56]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline but rebounded due to rising risk aversion and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, closing at $4067.40 per ounce on COMEX [1] Economic Data Summary - The ADP weekly employment report indicated an average weekly decrease of 2,500 jobs in the U.S. private sector for the four weeks ending November 1 [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported initial jobless claims at 232,000 for the week ending October 18, with continuing claims slightly rising to 1.957 million. Additionally, initial claims for the week ending September 20 were revised up from 218,000 to 219,000, with the four-week average adjusted from 237,500 to 237,750 [1] Market Analysis - Citic Futures noted that the high levels of weekly initial and continuing jobless claims, coupled with the prolonged government shutdown, have increased the downside risks in the labor market. This has contributed to a continued weakness in U.S. equities and a slight strengthening in U.S. Treasuries [1] - The market is closely watching upcoming U.S. GDP and non-farm payroll data releases, with expectations of short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices. However, the long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact [1] Investment Perspective - The ongoing issues of excessive debt issuance and de-globalization are identified as core drivers of the decline in U.S. dollar credibility. Gold is viewed as the preferred asset for hedging against dollar credit risk, being a currency that transcends national boundaries [1]

·高盛：预计到2026年底金价将达到每盎司4900美元 【机构分析】 ·银河期货表示，尽管沃勒在最新发言中仍支持12月降息，但由于近期美联储多位官员密集释放鹰派信 号，继续削弱市场的乐观预期，12月降息的概率预测由之前的70%回落至不足43%。此外，近期市场对 美股人工智能板块估值泡沫的担忧情绪升温，加之重要企业英伟达将于本周发布财报，整体市场情绪趋 于谨慎，因此出现新一轮抛售，VIX恐慌指数走高。贵金属市场，一方面，美联储释放鹰派信号支撑美 元走强，令贵金属承压，市场正在挤出此前乐观预期带来的"溢价"；另一方面，在市场风险资产遭遇抛 售的初期，往往会出现短期流动性紧张导致包括贵金属在内的避险资产在"risk-off"模式开启阶段出现无 差别下跌，同样令贵金属承压。短期内，预计市场将围绕本周出炉的美国非农数据和英伟达业绩等进行 博弈，市场波动可能放大，但不必过于悲观。 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置 价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联储 有望持续降息，也利好贵金属。但近期贵金属上涨幅度较大，定 ...