Market Overview - US stock index futures rose before the market opened, with Dow futures up 0.39%, S&P 500 futures up 0.88%, and Nasdaq futures up 1.34% [1] - European indices also showed positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.13%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.05%, France's CAC40 up 0.63%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.50% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 0.40% to $62.09 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.26% to $64.49 per barrel [3][4] Corporate News - Nvidia (NVDA.US) reported Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue at $39.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year [11] - Salesforce (CRM.US) exceeded Q1 expectations with revenue growth of 8% to $9.8 billion and raised its revenue guidance for FY2026 [12] - C3.ai (AI.US) reported a 26% increase in revenue to $10.87 million for Q4 FY2025, with a positive outlook for FY2026 [13] - HP (HPQ.US) lowered its full-year earnings forecast due to tariff costs and economic weakness, with Q2 revenue of $13.2 billion, exceeding expectations but EPS falling short [14] - Li Auto (LI.US) reported a net profit of 647 million RMB for Q1 2025, a 9.4% increase year-over-year, with total vehicle deliveries of 92,864 units [15] - Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) saw Q1 revenue grow by 81.1% to 4.695 billion HKD (approximately $603 million), with net profit increasing by 97.7% [16] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes the revision of the US Q1 GDP annualized rate and initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24 [17]

每经记者｜郑雨航 每经编辑｜高涵 ④ 【C3.ai盘前涨超18%】AI软件供应商C3.ai盘前涨超18%。消息面上，该公司在截至今年4月的上个财 年收入增长25%，远超分析师预期。 ⑤ 【惠普盘前跌超8%】惠普盘前跌超8%。消息面上，该公司下调了2025年全年利润预期。 ⑥ 【受关税影响，梅西百货计划涨价】美国梅西百货公司28日表示，受关税上调等因素影响，该公司 下调2025财年（从2月2日开始）盈利预期，并计划上调所售商品价格。 ⑦ 【美国比特币ETF过去五周吸金90亿美元】美国交易所交易基金（ETF）市场正在呈现分化格局，彭 博数据显示，过去五周美国比特币ETF吸金超90亿美元，贝莱德iShares比特币ETF（IBIT）吸金最多， 同期黄金ETF资金流出超过28亿美元。 ① 【三大期指齐涨】截至发稿，道指期货涨1.10%、标普500指数期货涨1.49%、纳指期货涨1.89%。 ⑨ 【美法院裁定禁止执行特朗普政府多个关税行政令】当地时间5月28日，美国国际贸易法院裁定，禁 止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令。根据法院裁决，《国际 紧急经济权力法》没有授权美国总统出台任何全 ...

Core Insights - The traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio is failing, prompting investors to seek alternative hedges such as gold and oil [1][3] - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting gold and underweighting oil in long-term investment portfolios to mitigate risks associated with inflation shocks [2][4] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Overweighting gold and underweighting oil can effectively reduce portfolio risk over the long term [2][3] - Historical data shows that during periods when both stocks and bonds have negative real returns, either gold or oil typically provides positive real returns [2][3] Group 2: Gold as a Hedge - The recommendation to overweight gold is based on two main factors: rising risks to U.S. institutional credibility and increasing demand from central banks [4] - U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is rising, and potential fiscal expansion raises sustainability concerns, while central bank independence is under scrutiny [4] - Central bank demand for gold has surged fivefold since 2022, particularly from emerging market central banks, which is expected to continue for at least three more years [4] Group 3: Oil Positioning - Goldman Sachs suggests a lower allocation to oil due to reduced risks of significant shortages in 2025-2026, attributed to high spare capacity and increased non-OPEC supply [6] - Despite the lower allocation, maintaining a positive position in oil is still advised due to potential future supply disruptions [6][9] Group 4: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs maintains a price forecast for gold at $3,700 per ounce by year-end and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs strongly recommends incorporating gold and oil into long-term investment portfolios to hedge against inflation risks [1][3] - The traditional 60/40 investment strategy is facing challenges as the correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds has weakened, leading to a failure in risk diversification [3] - Historical data shows that during any 12-month period when both stocks and bonds have negative real returns, either oil or gold tends to achieve positive real returns [1][3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs suggests increasing the allocation of gold in investment portfolios while maintaining a positive but lower allocation for oil, emphasizing their critical role in mitigating inflation shocks [1][3] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal health and the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead to significant buying of gold by private investors, potentially driving prices well above current forecasts [4] - Current forecasts predict gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [4] Group 3 - Strong demand for gold purchases is expected to provide substantial support for gold prices [5] - Despite high idle capacity in the global oil market limiting price increases, uncertainties in the energy market and potential supply shocks make oil allocation important for balancing investment risks [5]

美国副总统万斯：它（加密货币）是对飞涨的通胀的一种对冲。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that various institutions view the current U.S. fiscal crisis, weak dollar, and strong physical demand as short- to medium-term bullish factors for gold [1][4] - Citi has revised its three-month gold price target to $3,500, up from $3,300, due to renewed trade tensions and tariff threats from President Trump [2] - Despite the optimistic short-term outlook, Citi analysts express caution regarding the long-term prospects for gold, citing potential adverse factors such as upcoming U.S. midterm elections and high levels of gold held by individuals and households [2][3] Group 2 - Gold's potential demand remains historically strong, with approximately 0.5% of global GDP allocated to gold, the highest level in nearly 50 years, driven by high uncertainty [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties and Trump's tariff policies have contributed to a more than 20% increase in gold prices this year, with Macquarie suggesting that rising inflation could further benefit gold as a hedge [4] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating indicates worsening fiscal conditions, which may lead to increased government debt and interest burdens, further supporting gold prices [4] Group 3 - Trump's apparent desire to weaken the dollar could serve as a strong tailwind for precious metals, as historical trends show an inverse relationship between gold and the dollar [5][6] - Recent months have seen a high inverse correlation between gold and the dollar, with a weaker dollar contributing to strong gold price increases [6] - Despite some easing of trade tensions, significant economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions persist, maintaining a favorable environment for gold as a diversification tool [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices reflects a shift in market sentiment and investor risk appetite, driven by rising optimism in global trade and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1][5]. Market Performance - Spot gold prices fell over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3181.62 per ounce, the lowest level since April 11, with intraday lows hitting $3174.62 [3]. - Other precious metals also experienced declines: silver dropped 1.9% to $32.25 per ounce, platinum fell 0.6% to $982.05 per ounce, and palladium decreased 0.3% to $954.36 per ounce, indicating overall pressure in the precious metals market [3]. Trade Sentiment - The increase in trade optimism has significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading investors to shift funds from traditional safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets such as stocks and commodities [3][4]. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market participants are awaiting the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, with expectations that a higher-than-expected PPI could reinforce the likelihood of interest rate hikes, further pressuring gold prices [4]. Technical Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices may be seen as a correction following a period of significant increases driven by global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [4]. - The relative strength of the U.S. dollar has negatively impacted gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars, making it less attractive to investors holding other currencies [4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent price drop, analysts believe that gold's long-term value as a safe-haven asset remains intact due to ongoing global economic recovery uncertainties and geopolitical risks [4][5]. - The continued implementation of loose monetary policies by global central banks may enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations. The US announced that the annual rate of April CPI was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021, and the core CPI of 2.8% was flat with the expected and previous values. After the data release, the market reaction was mild, and the impact of tariffs has not been reflected yet [1]. - Recent trade and geopolitical negotiations have reduced the market's bets on a US economic recession, causing the gold price to give back its previous risk premium. The international gold price is in an adjustment process, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support at $3200 per ounce [1]. - The market generally expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September. Although the current inflation pressure is not high, inflation may rise again in the next few months as the tariff effect emerges. This expectation is prompting more investors to use gold as a tool to hedge against inflation [2]. - Gold faces three key variables: the follow - up progress of China - US trade negotiations, the Fed's monetary policy direction, and global geopolitical risks [2]. Summary by Related Aspects CPI Data - The US April CPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, and the core CPI was 2.8%, flat with the expected and previous values. The April CPI rose only 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% [1][2]. Market Expectations - The market generally expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September [2]. Gold Variables - Variables affecting gold include the follow - up progress of China - US trade negotiations, the Fed's monetary policy direction, and global geopolitical risks such as the evolution of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the India - Pakistan conflict [2]. Gold Price Movement - The international gold price is in an adjustment process, and attention should be paid to the support at $3200 per ounce [1].

"在周末宣布关税休战后，我们看到股市大幅上涨，至少在短期内，这已经消除了近期推动黄金创下新 高的部分避险焦点，"盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森表示，"如果跌破3200美元的水平，那么我 们可能会很快测试3165美元。" 全球股市在中美贸易紧张局势缓解的背景下上涨，同时也受到相对温和的美国通胀数据的支持。 据外媒报道，周三，黄金价格下跌，因中美贸易紧张局势缓解，缓解了潜在全球衰退的担忧，提升了投 资者的风险偏好，同时削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。 现货黄金下跌0.4%，报每盎司3233.69美元。上个月，在贸易局势担忧加剧的情况下，黄金价格曾创下 3500.05美元的历史新高。美国黄金期货下跌0.3%，报3238.10美元。 交易员现正等待周四公布的美国生产者价格指数（PPI）数据，以获取有关美联储利率路径的线索，此 前低于预期的4月消费者价格指数数据引发了市场对今年晚些时候可能降息的猜测。 市场预计美联储今年将降息53个基点，最早从9月开始。 尽管黄金传统上被视为对冲通胀的工具，但在低利率环境下，黄金也往往会表现强劲，因为它不产生利 息。 现货白银下跌0.2%，报每盎司32.83美元，铂金上涨0.8%，报995 ...

分析师：特朗普与美联储的紧张关系加剧不确定性 部分投资者依赖黄金对冲通胀 金十数据4月22日讯，加皇银行的分析师指出，关于特朗普对美联储施压、对美联储独立性的质疑，以 及他解雇鲍威尔的权力，都给已经充满不确定性的市场增加了不确定性。摩根大通首席美国经济学家 Michael Feroli表示，任何美联储独立性受损的可能性，都将给通胀前景增加上行风险，而通胀前景已经 受到关税和通胀预期有所上升的上行压力。部分投资者依赖黄金作为对冲通胀的工具。渣打银行的数据 显示，今年第一季度，投资者向黄金ETF投入了至少190亿美元。巴克莱亚洲外汇和新兴市场宏观策略 主管Mitul Kotecha表示，似乎确实有部分资金流入黄金，许多投资者都在买入黄金。 ...