新华社北京4月8日电（记者袁睿、成欣）针对美方威胁进一步对华加征50％关税，外交部发言人林剑8 日在例行记者会上说，美方滥施关税严重侵犯各国正当权益，严重违反世界贸易组织规则，严重损害以 规则为基础的多边贸易体制，严重冲击全球经济秩序稳定，是典型的单边主义、保护主义、经济霸凌， 遭到国际社会普遍反对，中方对此强烈谴责、坚决反对。 发言人表示，中方重申，贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。施压和威胁不是同中方打交道的正确方 式。中方敦促美方立即纠正错误做法，取消所有对华单边关税措施，停止对华经贸打压，与中方在相互 尊重的基础上，通过平等对话妥善解决分歧。 （文章来源：新华社） 另据新华社电商务部新闻发言人8日表示，中方注意到，美东时间4月7日，美方威胁进一步对华加征 50％关税，中方对此坚决反对。如果美方升级关税措施落地，中方将坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益。 发言人说，美方对华加征所谓"对等关税"毫无根据，是典型的单边霸凌做法，中方已经采取的反制措施 是为了维护自身主权安全发展利益，维护正常的国际贸易秩序，完全是正当之举。美方威胁升级对华关 税，是错上加错，再次暴露了美方的讹诈本质，中方对此绝不接受。如果美方一意 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government's tariff policies on the global fashion and textile industry, highlighting the shift in supply chains and production strategies among major brands in response to rising costs and geopolitical tensions [4][17]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The textile industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with companies relocating production to countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh due to rising labor costs in China and stricter regulations [6][7]. - The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this migration, prompting brands to diversify their supply chains and avoid over-reliance on a single country [7][8]. Regional Production Strategies - Many companies are adopting a "nearshoring" strategy, producing goods closer to key consumer markets to reduce shipping times and costs [8][9]. - Luxury brands like Hermès and Louis Vuitton are increasing local production in Europe and the U.S. to enhance brand image and maintain product quality [9][10]. Case Studies: Adidas and Zara - Adidas is focusing on a "market-oriented supply chain regionalization," aiming to mitigate tariff risks by increasing local production in China and sourcing from non-sensitive regions for the U.S. market [12][14]. - Zara's parent company, Inditex, maintains a high level of production in Europe, allowing for rapid response to market demands and optimizing inventory management [15][16]. Financial Implications - Zara's profit margins are significantly higher than industry averages, allowing for greater flexibility in pricing amidst rising costs due to tariffs [16]. - The shift towards supply chain resilience reflects a broader trend in the fashion industry, moving from a focus on low costs to balancing cost, speed, and risk [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Today, treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower. The unexpected escalation of the tariff war led to concerns about the slowdown of global economic demand growth, increasing risk aversion and driving up treasury bond futures. However, today before the market, domestic policy signals to stabilize the stock market emerged, and the central bank will support Central Huijin to stabilize the stock market, easing market sentiment and weakening risk - aversion demand. In the short term, the central bank has little need to implement easing policies as the first - quarter economic indicators are good. Overseas, the tariff war poses inflation and growth risks to the US economy, leaving the Fed in a dilemma. Overall, policy is actively stabilizing the equity market, risk aversion has cooled, and the short - term need for the central bank to cut interest rates is low. There is still a possibility of future interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and treasury bond futures are expected to remain range - bound [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On April 8 before the market, the People's Bank of China and Central Huijin Company spoke out. Central Huijin will continue to play the role of a "stabilizer" in the capital market, and will increase its holdings of ETFs of various market styles. The central bank will support Central Huijin to increase its holdings of stock market index funds and provide re - loans if necessary. The central bank conducted 167.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 8 at an operating rate of 1.50% [5]

4月7日，美股开盘便遭遇重挫。道指开盘即跌 2.85%，纳指跌幅更是高达 3.89%，标普 500 指数也下跌 3.19%。大型科技股无一幸免，集体陷入普跌困境， 英伟达跌逾 7%，特斯拉、苹果跌逾 6%，亚马逊、AMD 跌逾 5% 。 不过，好消息随之而来。美联储官网发布消息称，将于当地时间上午11:30举行理事会闭门会议议程主要聚焦于审查并确定美联储银行所收取的提前 和贴现利率。值得注意的是，此次会议正值特朗普关税政策引发美股大幅调整的敏感时期。 此后，重磅利好再度传来，美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特称，特朗普正在考虑对部分国家暂停90天的关税。 但好景不长，CNBC报道称，美国白宫无人知晓90天关税暂停的消息。 消息面此起彼伏，美股也上演ICU到KTV的反复横跳，好像一个精神失常的病人。美股行情先是突然逆转，直线拉升，道琼斯指数从36611点的低位 绝地反转，盘中一度暴涨超2500点。不过，随后又是风云突变，道指从39207的高点暴跌1000点翻绿，跌超1%。 而国内，早些时候也传来利好消息。中央汇金公司发布公告称，公司坚定看好中国资本市场发展前景，充分认可当前 A 股配置价值，已再次增持了 交易型开放式 ...

资金面边际收敛，长债收益率大幅下行。 央行公开市场开展935亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2452亿元逆回购到期及1500亿元国库现金定存到期，净回笼3017亿元。 资金面边际收敛，资金价格小幅回升，DR001上行12个bp至1.7%上方。 被套 50% 时死扛，还挺有期待，不愿意承认自己的错误，天天盼望着价格能涨回去，但到了真正开始上涨，开始慢慢解套时，又产生了恐慌，就会说"高 处不胜寒，感觉要掉了，先落袋为安吧。"于是，赚了 10% 就止盈下车了。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250407— 关税战Pro Max：7+7BP（+中国对美反制加征关税+人民日报：降准、降息随时可以出台+股市大跌-资金面边际收敛=大下)】 250004 1.6500/1.6500/1.6100/1.6370 -7.80 250205 1.6800/1.6800/1.6350/1.6675 -7.05 2400006 1.8300/1.8425/1.8000/1.8350 -8.00 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 04. 07) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent tariff announcements by President Trump, particularly focusing on Taiwan's semiconductor industry and the potential restructuring of global supply chains due to these tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - Taiwan faces a tariff rate of up to 32%, ranking seventh highest globally, while key industries like semiconductors are temporarily exempted [1]. - The U.S. government is expected to impose additional tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals soon, indicating that the semiconductor industry cannot remain unaffected in the long term [1][2]. - The tariffs are seen as a strategy to encourage companies to invest in the U.S., leading to a potential reshaping of the global supply chain [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Response - Taiwanese semiconductor firms have been relocating to Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia due to the "Taiwan+1" strategy, but the new tariffs may render these moves ineffective [2]. - TSMC's planned investment of $100 billion in the U.S. may not suffice, as the U.S. government is likely to demand more investments from other Taiwanese semiconductor companies [2]. - Smaller semiconductor firms may struggle to adapt to the new tariff environment, facing pressure to lower prices while managing increased operational costs [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing tariff war is characterized as a significant geopolitical struggle, with many uncertainties surrounding the U.S. tariffs [3]. - Companies are advised to assess their competitive strengths and align closely with major clients to mitigate operational risks in this evolving landscape [3]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience a "survival of the fittest" scenario, where financially robust and technologically advanced companies will thrive, while smaller firms may face greater challenges [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - outlook is worrying, and the overall trend of oils and fats is downward. Internationally, the US tariff war leads to a poor outlook for US soybean exports, CBOT soybean futures decline, and Brazilian soybean premiums rise. The global economic outlook worsens, and Malaysian palm oil breaks through the low at the beginning of the year. Domestically, the dependence on US soybeans is decreasing, the demand outlook for domestic oils and fats is more pessimistic, and soybean oil is expected to decline under pressure. The supply - demand weakness of domestic palm oil continues, and rapeseed oil temporarily corrects following other oils [1][19] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Macro and Industry News - During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, China announced reciprocal tariffs, raising the tariff on imported US soybeans to 47% [2] - Analysts predict that the global 2024/25 soybean ending inventory will be 122.07 million tons, with a forecast range of 121 - 123 million tons, higher than the USDA's March estimate [2] - In March, the total soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 6.21 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and 1.03 million tons from the same period last year. In early April, the soybean inventory of oil mills was still tight, and the imported soybean arrivals are expected to increase in late April, with the April crushing volume about 6.5 million tons [2] - The market expects that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of March will reach 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February. The March crude palm oil production is expected to be 1.31 million tons, a 10.3% increase from the previous month, and the export volume is estimated to be 1.022 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous month [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific data analysis content provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the US tariff war causes the CBOT soybean futures market to decline, and Brazilian soybeans benefit. The global economic outlook worsens, and Malaysian palm oil breaks through the low at the beginning of the year [19] - Domestically, the impact of the tariff war on the supply of imported soybeans is limited, but the demand outlook for domestic oils and fats is more pessimistic. Soybean oil is expected to decline under pressure. The supply - demand weakness of domestic palm oil continues, and rapeseed oil temporarily corrects following other oils [19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. With the influence of soybean meal, the price of rapeseed meal will maintain a fluctuating and slightly strong pattern [8]. - The short - term supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both weak, lacking its own driving force. The subsequent trend needs further guidance from policies and soybean meal [41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Not explicitly presented in the given content. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is still in the off - season, and the spot market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand [10]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [10]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The expected increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed in April; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [16][18]. - **Arrival and Inventory**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated and rebounded. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, while the inventory of rapeseed meal rebounded from a low level. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained low [19][21][23]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. Rapeseed meal was in a weak and fluctuating state, and the spot price followed the fluctuations, with the basis remaining near par [31][33]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and rebounded. The KDJ indicator crossed and rebounded at a low level, and the MACD was in a low - level fluctuation with the green energy narrowing, indicating a short - term end of the adjustment trend [41]. 3.7 Next Week's Focus - **Most Important**: Weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas; Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand; the arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44]. - **Second - most Important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand; domestic oil mill rapeseed meal inventory and downstream procurement [45]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Futures**: In the short term, it will fluctuate slightly stronger. For the RM2505 contract, it will fluctuate above 2600 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended, and the main operation is range - bound trading [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see for the 05 contract [13].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential resignation of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset due to dissatisfaction with the Trump administration's tariff policies, which he finds absurd [3][5][7] - Basset's comments on the tariffs have drawn criticism, with some analysts suggesting that the administration's approach reflects a lack of understanding of international trade [7][8] - The article highlights the significant market impact of Trump's recent tariff announcements, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing sharp declines, resulting in a market loss of approximately $6.5 trillion over two days [10][30] Group 2 - The article mentions that Trump's tariffs are expected to lead to increased costs for consumers, particularly affecting everyday items and household goods [10][12][16] - Specific examples of price increases due to tariffs are provided, including a 20% tariff on imported mineral water and a 24% tariff on certain food products, which will raise consumer prices [12][14][18] - Various industry representatives express concerns about the new tariffs, indicating that increased costs will ultimately be passed on to consumers, affecting sectors such as bakery, floral, and seafood [16][22][24] Group 3 - The article clarifies that Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, denied claims that Buffett supports Trump's tariff policies, labeling such reports as false [25][28][29] - Buffett has previously expressed concerns about the negative implications of punitive tariffs, suggesting they could lead to inflation and harm consumers [29] - Despite the recent market downturn, Berkshire Hathaway's stock has shown resilience, outperforming major indices year-to-date [30]

（ 转 载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 关税加码背后的深层原因 年初至今，美国对他国的进口关税税率不断加码，尽管关税政策朝令夕改，但税率则超乎想象地往上加。如美方近日 公布的所谓"对等关税"方案，向所有贸易伙伴征收不同水平的关税，拟对中国加征 34% 关税，对欧盟、越南、中国 台湾地区、日本、印度、韩国、泰国、瑞士、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、柬埔寨等贸易伙伴征收 20% 到 49% 不等的 关税，对任何贸易伙伴的最低对等税率也为 10% 。 近年来中国对美顺差的占比已下降 来源： Wind ，中泰证券研究所 为此，我国也采取了向原产于美国的所有商品加征 34% 的进口关税，鉴于美方是在今年对中国加征 20% 关税基础 上再加征 34% 的，说明中方加征的关税属于克制的回应，且留有谈判余地。 特朗普再度当选总统之后，他的施政方略围绕着 MAGA ，即对外加征关税以获得 5000 亿美元以上的关税收入，又 能重振美国的制造业；对内通过政府效率部（ DOGE ）来精简机构、裁减公务员以节省开支、提高效率。同时，限制 移民、国内减税等政策可以起到鼓励投资、保护就业的作用。 特朗普任期与历任总统行政 ...