周二市场集中回归，可以关注欧元区4月消费者信心指数初值及美国4月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数，两者预计均维持负值，基于近期的关税政策掀起市场的波 动和经济担忧，留意数据可能进一步弱化。当天IMF将发布《世界经济展望》报告，是关税战以来的最新预测，可以更多地反映经济前景预测受冲击的程 度。 周一全球多国依然处于复活节假期模式，所以消息指引上颇为清淡，可以关注美国3月谘商会领先指标。本周美股市场继续关注财报的披露情况，另外关注 美国总统特朗普本周可能公布对进口半导体的关税税率，会影响科技股和整体市场的表现。 周三凌晨留意NYMEX纽约原油5月期货受移仓换月影响，将结束最后的交易。数据方面各国公布国4月制造业PMI及服务业PMI终值，但在维持初值相同水 平的情况下对于市场可能指引有限。央行动态方面，关注晚间美联储官员穆萨莱姆和美联储理事沃勒出席讲话。 周四凌晨留意英国央行行长贝利发表讲话，看是否就最新的关税战可能带来的影响发表立场。美联储也将公布经济褐皮书，可能会首次正式反映关税对各地 区的经济带来的部分影响。数据方面主要集中在美国，分别有美国3月成屋销售和初请失业金人数，前者2月份数据显示尽管抵押贷款利率仍保持在高水平 ...

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have been influenced by escalating trade tensions, leading to initial sell-offs and a drop below $3000, followed by a rapid recovery and new highs above $3300 after a temporary suspension of tariffs by Trump [1] - The U.S. consumer confidence index has declined for four consecutive months, contributing to a 3% drop in the dollar index, the lowest since April 2022, which has shifted investor interest towards gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges due to rising import prices from tariffs, which could lead to persistent inflation, complicating their monetary policy decisions [5] Group 2 - The ongoing trade war and the weakening dollar are providing strong support for gold prices, with expectations for further upward movement as market conditions evolve [5] - Upcoming economic data releases, including consumer confidence and inflation metrics, will be critical for the Federal Reserve's policy direction [6]

2025年1月，美国特朗普政府出台了一系列新的外交政策，尤其是关税战让世界贸易面临重重挑战。面 对复杂多变的外部环境，我国应如何实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求，扩大高水平对外开 放，推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展，成为本次论坛的重要议题。 新京报讯（记者肖隆平）4月22日，主题为"直面关税战 锻造经济韧性"的2025新京智库春季论坛将在京 开幕。 大咖云集，群贤毕至。2025新京智库春季论坛仍将以问题为导向，以思想创新助推发展，增强信心，共 创繁荣。 编辑 郑伟彬 校对 张彦君 本次论坛将汇集国内各领域专业力量，盛邀多位权威专家，立足中国，放眼全球，把握时局，解读趋 势，助力我国经济社会高质量发展。 十四届全国政协委员、国务院发展研究中心原副主任余斌，中国社会科学院学部委员、中国社会科学院 原副院长高培勇，中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、中国资本研究院院长吴晓球，中国社科院旅游研 究中心特约研究员、中国旅游报社原社长高舜礼，全国高校国际贸易学科协作组秘书长、对外经济贸易 大学原副校长林桂军教授等重量级嘉宾将做主旨发言。 同时，当天上午，主办方还将发布《新京报网红城市潜力报告（2025）》，主要包括《 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 值得注意的是，在财报会中，有法人追问AI需求，中国对部分AI芯片或产品有禁令，台积电仍看 好相关营收加速成长将翻倍，这代表非中的AI相关需求很强劲吗? 魏哲家回应，三个月前公司无法 提供客户足够的晶圆，现在情况稍微「平衡」了，但需求仍然非常强劲。这也被市场解读有「弦外 之音」。 法人表示，目前市场恐慌情绪皆在反映关税的不确定性，并未真正掀起展望下修潮，而关税战仍没 有消停，目前厂商也难以精确预估政策影响后的全球终端需求。短期来看，半导体厂部分订单因应 变数提前拉到第二季交货，可以确定的是厂商第二季业绩表现大多亮眼，但川普政策朝令夕改，在 没有拍板之前，终端需求依然不明。 回顾过去景气循环，法人分析，在景气即将下行时，相较于终端电子下游，半导体上游通常最后知 后觉，而一线厂更会较晚反应，因此龙头厂业绩通常会保持稳健。而设备商更是供应链中最后知后 觉的一群、痛觉传导最慢，但目前关税战的不确定性，已经让各家厂商绷紧神经。 BIS已启动依据1962年《贸易扩张法》（Trade Expansion Act）第232条展开的国家安全调查，对 象涵盖进口的半导体、半导体制造设备（S ...

【#资金大量流向黄金避险##欧美将公布重要数据#反映关税战对企业冲击】上周，市场仍聚焦美国 就"对等关税"与各方的谈判进程，依赖海外市场的科技巨头上周延续下跌势头，拖累主要股指。此外， 美国总统特朗普多次喊话美联储尽快降息，市场担忧美联储货币政策独立性受到干扰，引发了部分资金 继续撤离美股和美债等资产。美国三大股指上周集体下跌。其中道指下跌2.66%，标普500指数下跌 1.50%，纳指下跌2.62%。 特斯拉、谷歌等多行业巨头本周将发布最新财报 国际金价再创收盘历史新高 上周累计涨超2% 贵金属市场方面，由于投资者继续减持美股、美债、美元，资金大量流向黄金避险，推动国际金价上 涨，上周三纽约商品交易所6月黄金期价再创收盘历史新高，首次收于每盎司3300美元关口上方。国际 金价上周累计涨幅为2.58%。 欧美将公布4月制造业与服务业PMI初值 将反映关税战对企业的冲击 数据方面，本周三，美国、欧元区和英国将分别公布4月制造业与服务业PMI初值。美国制造业PMI中 的投入价格指数尤其值得关注，它被标普全球称为衡量关税通胀压力的"第一站"。3月这项指标一度升 至两年来的最高水平，反映美国企业的成本压力加剧。分析人 ...

点击图片▲立即试听 " 我们手中的牌并不多，楼市是其中必须打好的、最重要的一张。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 所有宏大的叙事，最终都会落到一个家庭的起居之间。 2025 年春天，中美贸易摩擦不断加码，中国出口压力与日俱增，从沿海工厂到内陆中小企业，不少人开始重新计算接下来的账本：订单缩水、利 润承压，甚至员工的稳定性也打起了问号。 然而，亮眼成绩单的第二页，一个熟悉的身影却明显掉队了 —— 一季度，我国房地产开发投资同比下降 9.9% 。 这个曾经以一己之力拉动中国经济的 " 大主角 " ，如今似乎正在逐渐淡出聚光灯：不仅在新闻稿标题中失去了位置，甚至在分析师讨论时也被匆 匆带过。 宏观经济的温度计，正在测量每一个家庭最重要的决策之一 —— 买不买房，换不换房？ —— 吴晓波 楼市退场？没那么简单 近日，国家统计局公布了 2025 年第一季度宏观经济的 " 成绩单 " 。在中美贸易摩擦愈演愈烈、全球供应链重新洗牌的紧张氛围下，市场的目光 集中投向了 " 出口 " 和 " 消费 " 这两大被寄予厚望的动能引擎，而它们也的确未让人失望： 一季度，中国出口同比增长 6.9% ，社会消费品零售总额同 ...

Group 1: Humanoid Robot Marathon Insights - The first humanoid robot half marathon in Beijing revealed significant performance issues, including battery life, joint durability, and AI decision-making capabilities [1][2] - The event highlighted the need for advancements in battery technology, component strength, and AI training to enhance robot functionality [2] - Despite the challenges faced, the competition serves as a learning opportunity for the robotics industry, indicating that addressing these core issues could lead to future breakthroughs [2] Group 2: Tariff War and Market Opportunities - The tariff war is fundamentally a technology conflict, impacting sectors like semiconductors and prompting domestic industries to innovate [7] - Structural opportunities in the market are identified in four key areas: industrial upgrading, domestic consumption, foreign trade restructuring, and RMB internationalization [6][11] - The focus on domestic consumption is driven by the need to stabilize the economy amidst external demand fluctuations, with particular attention to emerging markets and health-related consumption [8][9] Group 3: Strategic Directions for Investment - Investment strategies should prioritize sectors that can adapt to the challenges posed by the tariff war, including technology breakthroughs and ecological restructuring [11] - The RMB's role as a settlement and pricing currency is crucial for countering dollar dominance, with potential growth in cross-border payment and digital currency sectors [10] - Short-term policy catalysts, such as equipment upgrades and consumer incentives, are essential for driving market resilience and long-term growth [11]

Core Viewpoint - The tariff war initiated by Trump has become a significant political burden for the Republican Party, with many members secretly opposing the tariffs but hesitant to publicly criticize the president [1][5][10]. Group 1: Republican Concerns - Republican strategists express that many members are reluctant to oppose Trump openly due to the political costs involved, hoping instead for the Supreme Court to intervene and uphold the constitutional authority of Congress over taxation [5][10]. - Polls indicate that the tariff policy is unpopular, and its prolonged existence could jeopardize the re-election prospects of these members [5][10]. - Concerns are widespread among Republican senators about the potential for Trump's tariff policies to become permanent, which could lead to significant political ramifications in the upcoming midterm elections [10][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Senator Ron Johnson describes tariffs as a "blunt instrument" that harms both the economy and consumers, questioning the true purpose of the tariff war [7][8]. - The fear of economic recession due to the tariffs is causing anxiety among Republican members regarding their electoral futures, with some drawing parallels to the 1982 midterm elections when the party lost numerous seats due to economic issues [12][10]. Group 3: Legislative Actions - A group of seven Republican senators is advocating for legislation that would require congressional approval for tariff policies, countering Trump's desire for unilateral presidential authority [14][16]. - Prominent Republican figures, including Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, have publicly criticized the tariff policies, emphasizing the need for Congress to reclaim its constitutional power over trade and tariffs [16][12].

2025年04月20日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 四 年 度 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：预期悲观，弱势震荡 | 11 | | 热轧卷板：预期悲观，弱势震荡 | 11 | | 焦煤焦炭：仓单压制，价格承压 | 22 | | 动力煤：需求乏力，低位震荡 | 27 | | 镍：矿端矛盾下方支撑，相对经济性收敛上方空间 | 31 | | 不锈钢：负反馈施压估值，成本下行但仍有托底 | 31 | | 工业硅：悲观情绪发酵，盘面偏弱格局 | 40 | | 多晶硅：现货报价下跌，盘面持续回落 | 40 | | 碳酸锂：供需双弱，强基差下仓单需求提升 | 50 | | 全国碳市场：发电行业配额预分配在即，关注市场活跃度 | 59 | | 棕榈油：产地卖压显现，价格压力释放 | 63 | | 豆油：缺乏驱动，震荡整理 | 63 | | 豆粕：仍关注关税与天气，宽幅震荡 | 68 | | 豆一：关注储备拍卖，宽幅震荡 | 68 | | 玉米：震荡行情 | 74 | | 棉花：缺乏上涨驱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience and adaptability of Guangdong's prepared food industry in the face of global trade challenges, particularly the tariff war initiated by the U.S., showcasing how local products like Magang goose are successfully entering international markets through innovative strategies and collaborations [4][15][30]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 9th China International Food and Ingredients Expo, the 3rd China International Prepared Food Industry Expo, and the 14th Guangdong Modern Agriculture Expo were held in Dongguan from April 18 to 20, attracting global buyers [1]. - The event featured a significant focus on the prepared food industry, which is seen as a key player in reshaping the global food landscape amidst trade tensions [1][7]. Group 2: Magang Goose's Success - Magang goose, recognized as one of Guangdong's top products, secured major contracts worth 80 million RMB with markets in Hong Kong, Macau, and Indonesia, highlighting its appeal and quality [6][5]. - The success of Magang goose is attributed to a new paradigm for Guangdong's agricultural exports, which emphasizes cultural connections, standardized production, and innovative overseas partnerships [6][7]. Group 3: Prepared Food Industry Growth - China's prepared food market is projected to grow from 200 billion RMB in 2019 to 600 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, making it a significant growth engine globally [17]. - In 2024, China's prepared food exports reached 173.2 billion RMB, accounting for 27% of total agricultural exports, indicating substantial market potential [17]. Group 4: International Market Strategies - The article discusses the importance of strategic international partnerships and market positioning for Chinese prepared food companies, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which are seen as ideal markets for expansion [22][24]. - The concept of "shared factory" models is introduced, where Chinese food companies collaborate with local partners to leverage resources and distribution channels, enhancing competitiveness in foreign markets [26]. Group 5: Financial Support and Infrastructure - Financial institutions, such as the Agricultural Bank of China in Dongguan, are providing significant support through inclusive loans, facilitating quick access to capital for food enterprises [28]. - The establishment of overseas warehouses and international cooperation agreements during the expos indicates a proactive approach to building infrastructure for global trade [19].