Group 1 - The dollar index has experienced its worst half-year performance since 1973, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10.8% in 2025, second only to a 14.8% drop in the first half of 1973 [1] - Key factors contributing to the dollar's decline include Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies, which have created significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, negatively impacting the dollar's attractiveness [2] - Trump's public criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for interest rate cuts have undermined market confidence in the dollar, as the independence of the central bank is crucial for currency stability [3] Group 2 - Market optimism regarding U.S. trade agreements has fueled strong expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting additional downward pressure on the dollar [4] - Following the dollar index's drop to multi-year lows, further downward pressure is anticipated due to dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and weak domestic economic data [5] - The significant depreciation of the dollar is likely to impact U.S. trade dynamics, making exports more competitive while increasing import prices, potentially leading to inflationary pressures [6] Group 3 - The decline of the dollar is prompting central banks worldwide to reassess their foreign exchange reserve structures, with many increasing allocations to gold, euros, and renminbi to reduce reliance on the dollar [7] - A survey indicated that 70% of central banks believe the U.S. political environment hinders their investment in dollars, leading to a diversification trend that could reshape the global monetary system [7] - The future trajectory of the dollar index remains uncertain, influenced by trade policies, Federal Reserve adjustments, and global economic growth [7]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.01%至 9878 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.01%至 79780 | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势，且亏损幅度较大。宏观方面，昨日特朗普在接受媒 | | | | 体采访时表示，无需延长即将到期的关税期限，将在未来几天内向包括日本在内的数 | | | | 百个国家发送信函，单方面告知各国对美出口商品的关税税率，而非继续进行贸易谈 | | | | 判。这或意味着 7 月关税期限到期前后风险事件可能再现。另外，昨日特朗普发文再 | | | | 次批评美联储主席鲍威尔和整个美联储理事会不降息的作为。国内方面，国家统计局 | | | 铜 | 公布数据显示，6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，制造业景气 | | | | 水平继续改善。库存方面，LME 库存下降 650 吨至 90625 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 | | | | 1749 吨至 191607 吨； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The market risk sentiment has grown as the Israel-Iran conflict eases. The expectation of a looser Fed monetary policy mainly affects risk assets, causing the gold price to fluctuate downward. In the long term, the real interest rate is likely to decline. Gold remains an irreplaceable investment if the expansion of the US fiscal and debt scale persists. For gold, short - term trading can be done by selling high and buying low between 740 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and long - term positions can be lightly established based on the 740 yuan/gram level. For silver, it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 8,640 yuan/kg to 8,660 yuan/kg with a stop - loss at 8,620 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US economic data is poor. The Chicago business activity index in June dropped slightly to 40.4 from 40.5 in May, lower than the expected 43.0, the lowest since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic activity contraction. The Dallas Fed business activity index contracted for the fifth consecutive month. Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut this year and three next year. Goldman Sachs advanced its prediction of the Fed rate cut to September. Trump criticized the Fed, and there are speculations about Powell's successor [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On June 30, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 764.10 yuan/gram and closed at 767.58 yuan/gram, up 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 211,285 lots, and the open interest was 155,821 lots. In the night session, it opened at 766.18 yuan/gram and closed at 768.98 yuan/gram, up 0.54% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,716 yuan/kg and closed at 8,762 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 504,424 lots, and the open interest was 277,702 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,737 yuan/kg and closed at 8,722 yuan/kg, up 0.10% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, with a change of 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.52%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 129 lots and the short positions by 52 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 398,616 lots, up 4.72% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 10 lots and the short positions decreased by 1,436 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 949,707 lots, down 13.39% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,826.61 tons, down 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On June 30, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 9.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 553.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 87.60, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.86, with a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,766 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 487,620 kg, with a change of 2.21% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,240 kg [7].

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently risen, reaching a high of $3320.34 per ounce, supported by strong buying at lower levels and a weaker US dollar [2] - The US dollar index has dropped 0.5% to 96.76, marking its worst first half performance since the 1970s, with a monthly decline of 2.7% [2] - Concerns over the increasing US government deficit, projected to rise by $3.3 trillion due to tax cuts and spending, have weakened the dollar's appeal [2] Group 2 - Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve are increasing, with President Trump pressuring Fed Chairman Powell for significant interest rate cuts [3] - Recent trade agreements between the US and China regarding rare earth minerals have provided some hope for trade dialogue, while the EU has expressed willingness to negotiate tariffs [3] - The upcoming employment data in the US is critical for determining future monetary policy and could influence gold prices significantly [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a rebound phase, with key support at $3295 and resistance at $3335 [4][6] - The market is advised to wait for a pullback to $3295 for potential buying opportunities, while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid chasing prices [4][6] - The overall strategy suggests a focus on short positions while monitoring key price levels for potential reversals [6][7] Group 4 - Specific trading strategies include shorting gold at $3320-$3323 with a target of $3305-$3300, and buying on dips at $3295-$3300 with a target of $3305-$3310 [7] - Emphasis is placed on risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [7][8] - The article highlights the importance of market analysis and adapting strategies based on market conditions to avoid significant losses [8]

贵金属日报 2025-07-01 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属 沪金涨 0.54 %，报 768.98 元/克，沪银涨 0.10 %，报 8722.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.40 %， 报 3321.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.45 %，报 36.34 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.24%，美元指数报 96.78 ； 市场展望： 昨日公布的美国经济数据表现弱势，美国 6 月芝加哥 PMI 为 40.4，低于预期的 43 以及前值的 40.5。美国 6 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数为-12.7，低于预期的-10。市场已加大对于联储后续 货币政策边际宽松的预期，当前市场预期联储下半年将分别在九月、十月以及十二月议息会议 中进行 25 个基点的降息操作，高于前期两次 25 个基点的降息预期。 当前美联储的货币政策已不完全具备"独立性"，就业和通胀数据并非其维持高息环境的主要 原因：美联储以通胀和就业为双重政策目标，而关税政策所带来的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with expectations for three rate cuts increasing due to easing tensions in trade and geopolitical conflicts [5]. Macroeconomic Summary - The U.S. core PCE price index for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing the expected 2.6%, marking the highest level since February 2025 [2]. - The U.S. first-quarter real GDP annualized rate declined by 0.5%, worse than the expected decline of 0.2% [2]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 236,000, with the previous value revised to 246,000 [2]. - The market is observing a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some officials open to cuts as early as July, while others suggest it may be premature [2]. Commodity Market Summary - The silver market is influenced by the performance of gold; if gold experiences a significant pullback, silver prices may also adjust, but if gold maintains a high-level fluctuation, silver could see upward momentum [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which has a limited negative impact on gold prices, as previous influences on gold were relatively minor [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July with a probability of 79.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is at 20.7% [4]. Investment Outlook - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains one of cautious adjustment, with expectations of rate cuts providing some support for gold and silver prices [5]. - The potential for significant price movements in precious metals is limited in the short term, with both gold and silver expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [5].

欧元/美元在6月最后一周达到1.1754，创下自2021年9月以来的最高点。周五收盘时，该货币对在1.1720附近整理，保持其积极的动能。 中东停火 美元（USD）在本周开局强劲，因中东冲突升级而对大多数主要对手货币大幅上涨。周末，美国对伊朗铀设施发动了大规模攻击，特朗普总统通过社交媒 体报告称他们已"摧毁"了核计划。德黑兰则以导弹袭击美国在卡塔尔的军事基地进行报复，市场参与者感到恐慌。 然而，周一晚些时候，特朗普总统宣布伊朗与以色列之间的停火，经过大约两周的导弹攻击交锋。尽管最初对潜在停火的怀疑，金融市场迅速转向乐观。 随着冲突实际降温，风险偏好占据主导地位。因此，原油价格暴跌，全球股市上涨，美元下跌。 美联储主席鲍威尔半年度证词 在美联储（Fed）主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在国会就货币政策作证后，美元承压。在他的半年度出席中，鲍威尔降低了对7月降息的预期，因对关税对通胀影响 的不确定性。同时，鲍威尔重申经济依然稳健，并表示美国没有衰退。最后，鲍威尔指出，特朗普总统对降息的要求对美联储的政策没有影响。 这引发了特朗普的愤怒。 在荷兰举行的北约首脑会议后，他声称："我们没有通胀。我们有一个巨大的经济。数千亿美元的关税 ...

Group 1 - Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic growth forecast for this year from 1.9% to 2.2%, and next year's forecast from 2% to 2.2%, although these figures remain below last year's growth of 2.9% and the long-term average of 2.7% [1][3] - The adjustment is primarily due to the recent improvement in the international trade environment, with reduced tariff disputes between the US and major trading partners alleviating recession concerns [3][5] - The economic growth forecast for the Eurozone has been slightly upgraded to 0.8% from a previous estimate of 0.6%, but remains constrained by energy price volatility and weak manufacturing [5][6] Group 2 - The US economic growth forecast for 2022 has been raised from 1.2% to 1.5%, indicating short-term economic resilience, although domestic demand may slow in the latter half of the year [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding global trade remains, with the effective tariff rate in the US currently at 14.2%, potentially rising to nearly 18%, which could exert pressure on global supply chains and inflation [5][6] - Fitch warns that despite short-term improvements, the global economy faces the most severe trade risks since the 1930s, with tariff policy uncertainty continuing to suppress business investment and consumer confidence [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report posits that silver prices have room for further increase. The Fed is likely to enter a new round of easing cycle in the second half of the year, driven by the heavy interest burden on US Treasury bonds due to the high policy - rate environment and the expected expansion of US fiscal deficits. This will drive up the price of silver [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trump Administration's Tax - Cut Policy and US Treasury Bond Issuance Pressure - The "Beautiful Big Bill" promoted by the Trump administration, which includes extending the main provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap expiring in 2025, is expected to reduce US fiscal revenue by $3.54 trillion and increase the overall deficit by $2.77 trillion over the next ten fiscal years. The expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positively correlated with the gold price in the medium - term, and it has already driven the international gold price to a record high in the first half of the year [4]. - Affected by the US debt ceiling issue, the net issuance of US Treasury bonds was low in the first half of the year. As of May 2025, the cumulative net issuance of US Treasury bonds was $281.3 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 56.1%. The balance of the US Treasury's cash account decreased from $811.5 billion on January 29 to $334.6 billion in the week of June 25. After the debt ceiling issue is resolved, there is a financing gap of over $500 billion in the Treasury's cash account, indicating significant issuance pressure on US Treasury bonds in the second half of the year [5]. 3.2 Certainty of Fed Policy Rate Cut and Its Driving Factors - The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to potential inflation risks from tariff policies. However, the increase in the US import price index excluding food and energy is much lower than that during 2020 - 2022. US inflation data in May 2025 showed a decline compared to expectations and previous values. In the past, the Fed cut rates during the US election, indicating that its monetary policy is not completely free from political influence [9]. - In the recent interest - rate meeting, the Fed decided to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. The dot - plot's median interest - rate expectations for 2025 remained at 3.9%, but were raised for 2026 and 2027. Seven voting members expect no rate cut this year, up from four in March. Powell believes the current interest - rate level is appropriate and that tariff - driven inflation may continue [10][11]. - President Trump is dissatisfied with the Fed's interest - rate policy, stating that a rate cut could save the US fiscal expenditure up to $1 trillion. As of May 2025, the cumulative interest expenditure on US Treasury bonds has reached $776 billion, and high interest rates will further increase the deficit during the subsequent concentrated issuance of Treasury bonds [12]. - There is a clear divergence within the Fed regarding the rate - cut rhythm. Fed Governor Waller and Vice - Chair Bowman are in favor of rate cuts. Considering the maintenance of the US dollar's credit and the large interest expenditure squeezing the overall fiscal expenditure, the Fed is certain to cut the policy rate in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for silver prices [13].

钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属 沪金跌 0.89 %，报 765.54 元/克，沪银跌 1.04 %，报 8718.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 1.85 %， 报 3286.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 2.06 %，报 36.17 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.29%，美元指数报 97.14 ； 市场展望： 当前美联储的货币政策已不完全具备"独立性"，就业和通胀数据并非其维持高息环境的主要 原因：美联储以通胀和就业为双重政策目标，而关税政策所带来的潜在通胀风险则是联储主席 鲍威尔对于降息维持谨慎态度的主要原因。然而从实际进口的价格压力来看，美国剔除食品和 能源的进口价格指数由今年 1 月份的 109.3 上升至对等关税宣布后五月份的 110.2，其幅度远 低于 2020-2022 年期间受到疫情后海外宽松政策以及俄乌冲突所带来进口价格指数的上升。美 国通胀数据方面，美国 5 月 CPI 同比值为 2.4%，低于预期和前值的 2.5%， ...