Group 1 - The international gold price has shown significant volatility, with a closing price of $3,438.55 on May 7, down $67.04 or 1.95% from the previous trading day [2][3] - The gold price is expected to retreat to the $3,300 level due to a combination of factors including easing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [3][4] - Despite the recent decline, there is still strong support for gold prices around $3,300, with resistance levels at $3,400 and significant pressure at $3,430-$3,450 [4] Group 2 - The market remains cautious due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and between India and Pakistan, which sustain risk-averse sentiment among investors [3] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below the $3,360 support level, further declines to $3,330 and $3,300 are likely [4] - The Bollinger Bands suggest that gold prices are likely to remain in a range-bound pattern, with a low probability of a sustained upward trend [3][4]

Group 1 - During the May Day holiday, international gold prices exhibited a "deep V" trend, initially dropping to the $3200 mark due to unexpected news such as the breakdown of Japan's tariff negotiations and Trump's expansion of tariffs, but quickly rebounding to over $3400 per ounce as risk aversion increased [1] - The gold ETF (159937) saw a nearly 1% increase, achieving a transaction volume exceeding 400 million yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 45% in the past year [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, with Chairman Powell indicating no urgency to adjust rates, despite rising uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meetings, with expectations of fewer than or equal to two rate cuts within the year [2] - The market remains volatile, influenced by Trump's tariff policies and the unclear outlook for U.S. stocks, with a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the dollar [2] - Recent economic data showed a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter decline in U.S. GDP, indicating the impact of tariffs, while personal consumption expenditures rose by 1.8% [3] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) closely tracks domestic gold prices with an annualized tracking error of only 0.3%, allowing investors to avoid storage and authentication costs while trading through a securities account [4]

近期黄金外汇市场受多因素影响波动明显。川普拟对海外制作电影征100%关税，加剧贸易战担忧，避 险情绪升温，投资者涌入金市推高金价，贸易政策不确定性也致各类指数波动剧烈。随后因中美贸易谈 判乐观情绪及对美联储政策声明的预期，避险需求降低，金价从高位回落。此前，现货黄金曾触及4月 22日以来最高水平。凌晨美联储维持利率不变影响较小。鉴于国际贸易消息持续影响市场，投资者需密 切关注并调整策略。 周三黄金市场表现疲软，以大阴柱收盘。亚盘时段，黄金短线高开于3438后暴跌70点，随后回调至 3360，并对3350进行测试。日内黄金一直在3400 - 3360区间震荡。凌晨美联储维持利率不变，市场受此 影响较小，但黄金下行趋势有所增强，尾盘收于3364。对于日内行情可关注3350一线的支撑位以及3395 一线的压力位。王召金建议在3390点位做空，目标看向3375 - 3360。 白银行情走势分析： 昨日白银行情以一根下影线很长的大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，日线阴包阳；从1 - 4小时级别走 势来看，昨日白银在33.30处受到压制，拉升至33.232上方后便开始回撤，成功回撤至32.22附近，尾盘 收于32.43附近 ...

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the 2-year yield rising to 3.826% and the 10-year yield slightly declining to 4.314% [1] - Investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, with a 95.6% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged [2] - There was a significant outflow of $8.9 billion from the U.S. stock market, while $3.4 billion flowed into European stocks, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a $60 billion 17-week short-term bill and a total of $210 billion in four bond offerings, including $25 billion in 30-year bonds [3] - European bond yields generally declined, with the 10-year German bond yield falling to 2.512% and the 10-year Italian bond yield dropping to 3.595% [2] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 30-year yield rising significantly by 15.2 basis points to 2.918% [2]

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/5/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX日银 | AU2506 | AG2506 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点包 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/5/6 | 3367.70 | 33. 04 | 3375. 80 | 33. 25 | 794. 80 | 8235.00 | 792. 61 | 8219.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/4/30 | 331 ...

周三(5月7日)，中国商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸高层会谈答记者问，发言人称，中方决定同意与美方进 行接触，何立峰副总理作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将与美方牵头人美国财长贝森特举行会谈。因中美会谈 消息打压避险情绪，金价出现暴跌，美股期货攀升。金价周三亚市早盘暴跌70美元，最低位于3360美元/盎 司附近。 近期金价的"V"型反转，是何原因促成？ 近期黄金价格先涨后跌再反弹，呈现'V'型走势，主要受地缘冲突、美联储政策预期和市场情绪共同影 响。此前特朗普对全球所有贸易国加征高额关税，导致全球贸易、经济和政治格局的失序加剧。 黄金：3350附近多，防守40，目标看向3390-3400！ 对于今天黄金走势的看法！ 黄金当前这种快速波幅的行情，只能以震荡走势来看待，昨天晚间也说过，行情上涨多空都有机会，意想 不到的就是晚间涨幅那么剧烈，还是和我们的预测有一点出处，而对于区间震荡走势，尤其是波段上涨结 束后的宽幅震荡走势，多空都有机会，关键是时机点位的把握，操作上还是需要耐心！ 黄金早盘自3438位置开启回撤，当前预计早盘先止跌于3350支撑区域，短期而言，要留意黄金周线是否会 构成黄昏之星形态。一旦黄昏之星结构形成，则黄 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in risk appetite following China's interest rate cuts and confirmation of trade talks with the U.S., leading to a rise in Asian stock markets and commodity prices [1][5][6] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in the policy interest rate, bringing it down from 1.5% to 1.4% [1] - The upcoming visit of China's Vice Premier He Lifeng to Switzerland for trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to further influence market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Asian markets showed positive performance, with MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.4%, and notable increases in indices such as the South Korean Composite Index and the MSCI Vietnam Index [5][6] - Commodity prices, including iron ore and steel futures, experienced upward trends, with significant gains in agricultural products like soybeans, corn, and wheat, all rising over 1% [6][7] - International oil prices continued to rebound, with WTI crude oil rising over 0.63% and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.50% [7][8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美联储会议前，欧洲贸易谈判态度强硬，金价再度上涨；美国三大股指 全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.53%报99.27，离岸人民币直 线大幅震荡报7.2080；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收益率跌4.87个基点报 4.2946；COMEX黄金期货涨3.60%报3441.80美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国务院新闻发布会、美联储议息会议、法国3月贸易帐。美联储 会议前，关税不确定性依旧高涨，风险偏好降温，金价再度走高，早间中美会面消 息，另风险偏好再度升温，金价明显回落。沪金 ...

Group 1 - The international geopolitical situation has intensified, leading to a surge in safe-haven demand for gold, which reached a high of 3438, surpassing the expected target of 3420 for the week [2][4] - After reaching the peak of 3438, gold experienced a significant drop, indicating potential volatility and the possibility of a downward trend, with support levels to watch [4][5] - The U.S. dollar index showed little change, fluctuating around 99.3, suggesting a lack of strong trend direction, while gold's recent performance indicates a potential for both upward and downward movements [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices also saw an increase, with the Shanghai gold contract peaking at 813, but subsequently faced a decline, indicating a potential for high-level fluctuations in the near term [5][6] - International silver reached a high of 33.2, with expectations for further increases, although recent adjustments suggest a cautious approach to new positions [5][6] - The international crude oil market is showing signs of a rebound, with potential upward targets set at 64 or higher, indicating a shift from previous declines [6]

黄金周二（5月6日）早盘直接强势大涨，在触及3387附近后受阻调整，午后在3350附近企稳开始震荡上涨，美盘延续上涨走势，一直持续到收盘，日线收出 一根大阳线。 一、基本面 特朗普宣布对外国制作电影征收100%关税，引发市场对贸易局势的担忧，同时OPEC+增产消息导致能源和油气板块跌超1.7%，美股各板块ETF普遍收跌， 这些因素使得避险情绪重回市场，资金流向黄金寻求避险，推动金价上涨。此外，中美贸易谈判、美日贸易谈判陷入僵局，中东地区地缘问题反复，也进一 步加剧了市场的不确定性和避险情绪，对黄金价格形成支撑。 从日线级别来看，黄金价格此前在3500整数关口遭遇强劲阻力，随即开启调整走势。值得关注的是，本周连续两个交易日，金价均以大阳线报收，这一强势 表现直接收复了前期大部分跌幅，尽显多头力量的强劲。与此同时，均线系统也释放出积极信号，整体向上拐头，5日均线与10日均线形成粘合后交金叉。 在当前行情下，今日需着重留意黄金上涨动能能否持续。下方关键支撑区域位于3330-3320区间，该位置不仅是5日均线与10日均线当前所处位置，更是昨日 盘中低点所在，其支撑有效性将对后续行情发展起到关键作用。 从四小时级别来看 ...