美国国务卿鲁比奥：在地缘政治问题的决策中，确保原材料和重工业能力已成为核心关注点，这一点越 来越明显。 ...

（1）基本面 价格：5 月 30 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.19%，报 7140 元/吨，基差 585 元/吨（+21 元/吨）； 成本：5 月 30 日布油主力合约收盘 60.9 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 63.4 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5835 元/吨（-25 元/吨）。 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 6 月 3 日 星期二 地缘政治影响原油大涨，但供需仍然偏弱 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 17.1 万吨（-1.6 万吨），环比减少 8.44%， 江苏港口库存 7.5 万吨（+2.3 万吨），环比上升 43.2%，苯乙烯开始累库。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置将于 6 月中下旬逐渐回归，届时供应有增量预 期。目前，苯乙烯周产量环比回升 3.9%至 33.0 万吨（+1.3 万吨），工厂产能 利用率 72.0%（+2.7%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 58.7%（+0.9%）， ABS 产能利用率 62.3%（+1.45%），PS 产能利用率 61.8%（+ ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/6/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 最新 | | 数据指标 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 2100.200 1339 | 15.9↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | -31.60↓ | | 期货盘面 | +32.30↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 761.20 | | | +32.30↑ | | EC合约基差 | EC2508-EC2510价差 761.20 -847.38 -19.13↓ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 45769 3945↑ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1252.82 5.77↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（5.26~5.30） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡小幅回落，沪铜主力合约下跌0.24%，收报于77600元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价, 端午假期，美国关税再起波澜，全球不确定仍强。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿 一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存148450吨，上 周出现小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周增7120吨至105791吨。 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 数据来源：Win ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Gold 2508 is expected to show short - term strength due to the escalation of geopolitical and trade policies, with a short - term upward trend, a medium - term oscillation, and an upward trend for the day. Nickel 2507 is recommended for a wait - and - see approach as it has an upstream - strong and downstream - weak situation, with a short - term and medium - term oscillation and a day - long slightly weak oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term is upward, medium - term is oscillating, and for the day is upward, with a short - term strong view [1][3]. - **Driving Logic**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, US trade policies and global geopolitical risks escalated. Trump planned to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, and threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on July 9. The White House was firm on maintaining tariffs. Geopolitical risks included the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the tense situation in the Middle East, which increased the safe - haven sentiment and pushed up the gold price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 3400 - dollar mark for New York gold and the 785 - 790 mark for Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Trend**: Short - term and medium - term are oscillating, and for the day is slightly weak, with a wait - and - see view [1][5]. - **Driving Logic**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, LME nickel rose slightly, and SHFE nickel is expected to open slightly higher after the holiday, with attention on the pressure at the 122,000 level. Before the holiday, the nickel price dropped significantly due to the rumor of an increase in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, but the rumor did not impact the Indonesian nickel ore price. Technically, the short - term futures price rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the technical support at the 120,000 mark is still valid. It is expected that the liquidation of previous short positions will cause the price to continue to rebound [5].

与此同时，美国财政部长贝森特上周日表示，特朗普预计将解决包括关键矿产争端在内的贸易问题。 周一欧盘，现货黄金日内大涨近2.00%，重回3350美元关口。WTI原油日内大涨3%，布伦特原油涨 2.9%。 特朗普在上周五表示，他计划将进口钢铁和铝的关税从25%提高到50%，这促使欧盟委员会警告欧洲已 准备好进行报复。 黄金被认为是地缘政治和经济不确定时期的一种避险资产，并且倾向于在低利率环境中表现良好。 KCM贸易首席市场分析师蒂姆·沃特勒（Tim Waterer）表示："随着贸易和地缘政治担忧再次浮出水 面，本周初看到黄金价格上涨不足为奇。" 在伊斯坦布尔举行第二轮和谈之前，乌克兰和俄罗斯冲突升级，发生了一波袭击，其中包括乌克兰在冲 突中最激进的一次打击和俄罗斯的夜间无人机袭击。 此外，一些美国参议员正在推动对俄罗斯实施更严厉的制裁，提议对购买俄罗斯石油的国家征收500% 的关税。共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）和民主党参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔（Richard Blumenthal）希望在六月中旬的G7峰会前实施制裁。 尽管美国总统特朗普似乎对俄罗斯总统普京越来越不满，但他迄今仍不愿施 ...

（3）经济数据与政策：美国4月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数同比增长2.1%，低于预期的2.2%，这使得交易员继续押注美联储将在9月下调短期借贷成 本，利率期货显示美联储9月降息概率升至87%。美联储的货币政策预期对黄金影响重大，降息预期升温通常会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而利多黄金。 此外，美国联邦上诉法院上周四暂时恢复特朗普总统最全面的关税政策，此前美国贸易法院曾裁定其越权并阻止征收关税，关税政策的不确定性也对市场产 生了一定影响。 2、本周重点关注 （1）重要数据：本周将公布一系列重要经济数据，包括美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI、4 月 JOLTs 职位空缺、5 月 ADP 就业人数、5 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI、4 月贸易帐以及最受关注的 5 月非农就业报告等。 （2）央行政策动态：周三加拿大央行和周四欧洲央行将公布利率决议。如果央行维持利率不变或降息，会使得货币市场利率下降，持有黄金的机会成本降 低，对黄金价格形成支撑；若央行选择加息，则会提高持有黄金的机会成本，打压黄金价格。此外，虽然美联储6月15号才开会讨论利率，但市场对其加息 或降息的预期会提前反映在黄金价格波动上。若市场预期美联储 ...

4月24日到25日，国际能源署将召开"能源安全峰会"，这次峰会的举办地在伦敦，举办方是英国政府。据报道，峰会的主题将围绕"气候转型、能源安全和地 缘政治风险"展开，英国政府和国际能源署已经向75个国家发出邀请。 距离峰会开始还有一周的时间，但峰会背后的风波已经开始涌动。根据英国《卫报》4月16日的披露，峰会没有邀请俄罗斯，美国总统特朗普则高调宣布会 派重要人物前去参会。最劲爆的消息是关于中国的态度，《卫报》的原话是：由于日程冲突，中方高级能源官员将不会出席本次峰会。 如果用非外交话术来说就是：中国没空来参加。如果用大白话来理解就是：我们不想去。 国际能源安全峰会是国际能源署（简称IEA，亦称"国际能源机构"）举办的峰会，其宗旨是评估全球能源体系面临的风险，并商讨解决方案。这里就不得不 先说一下"国际能源署"。 国际能源署成立于1974年，总部在法国巴黎。它目前有31个成员国，主要包括欧洲大多数国家，还有日本、韩国、美国、加拿大等国。这里面并没有欧洲长 期依赖的能源大国俄罗斯，也没有石油出口大国的沙特、阿联酋、伊朗等国，更没有中国。 说白了，国际能源署是以欧美为主导，维护欧美自身利益，受地缘政治和意识形态的影响 ...

Macro and Policy Level - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May is expected to rise from 48.7 to 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [1] - The second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled to take place in Istanbul, which may impact global geopolitical dynamics, particularly in energy and commodity markets [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI for May increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3, indicating continued expansion overall [2] - The US trade deficit for April is projected to narrow from $140.5 billion to $117.3 billion, reflecting a potential easing of the "export rush" effect [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to continue lowering interest rates in June, with market focus on future rate guidance amid economic growth concerns in the Eurozone [4] Financial Data - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May are set to be released [5] - The US will release various economic indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a decrease in job additions from 177,000 to 130,000 [7] Industry Level - CATL is set to launch monthly options for its H-shares, with the first contracts available on June 2, 2025 [6] - Nintendo will globally launch the Switch 2, featuring significant upgrades in hardware performance and gaming experience compared to its predecessor [8] Company Level - Xiaomi Group held its 2025 Investor Day, where management shared strategic directions and business developments, including a visit to its automotive factory [9] - Broadcom reported Q2 fiscal year 2025 earnings, projecting revenue of $14.9 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, and AI semiconductor revenue of $4.4 billion, indicating strong growth potential [10]

Core Insights - The true control of the global mineral supply chain lies not in ownership of underground resources but in the mastery of refining capabilities [1] - China's near-monopoly in the rare earth refining sector has been highlighted, with a significant price surge observed following export controls [1] Group 1: Market Concentration - Global rare earth mineral trade is extremely concentrated, with 89% of trade relationships relying on a few suppliers [3] - Specifically, 43% of trade relationships depend on five or fewer suppliers, while 46% rely on three or fewer suppliers [3] - Key emerging and developing economies dominate the extraction of critical raw materials, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo supplying 73% of cobalt ore and Guinea supplying 70% of aluminum ore [3] Group 2: China's Dominance in Refining - Despite the dispersion of raw material extraction across various countries, nearly all processing and refining stages are concentrated in China [3] - China supplies 65% of the world's refined lithium and nearly 80% of refined cobalt, controlling over 90% of global refined rare earth supply [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - China's dominant position in the mineral supply chain has been systematically built over the past two decades, focusing on facilities and technologies for converting raw materials into usable inputs for batteries and green technologies [6] - Geopolitical tensions have intensified reliance on Chinese mineral supply chains, with over 90% of U.S. rare earth imports coming from China in 2023, up from 70% in 2013 [6] Group 4: Future Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement is strategically significant but unlikely to alter the global mineral supply landscape in the short term, as the bottleneck lies in refining capacity rather than extraction [7] - Ukraine possesses about 5% of global rare earth reserves and significant lithium and titanium reserves, but the increase in critical mineral supply remains a distant prospect [7] - Establishing rare earth refining in Ukraine will take years and may require a comprehensive overhaul of the global supply chain [7]