有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月30日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 有色板块在铜带领下有所调整，但铝产业链相关品种跌幅不大，临 近假日建议减仓观望为主，上方压力区间23000-24000，下方支撑 区间21000-21300，可买入虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格 暂时企稳，在产产能环比持平，建议节前轻仓操作，上方压力区间 2800-3000，下方支撑区间2000-2200，可买入虚值看涨期权做保 护。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Options: Sell put options [8] Core Viewpoints - Currently, driven by funds, the prices of metals like silver and copper have deviated significantly from fundamentals. Due to short - term supply bottlenecks, prices are supported, but there's a risk of price decline due to reduced year - end positions [8]. - High copper prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and the industry is expected to remain weak in the short term [6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 30, 2025, the opening price of the main SHFE copper contract was 97,020 yuan/ton, closing at 98,090 yuan/ton, a 0.78% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The overnight session opened at 99,140 yuan/ton and closed at 99,220 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 330 yuan/ton to a premium of 150 yuan/ton against the main contract, with an average premium of 240 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 97,190 to 98,050 yuan/ton. The market was quiet, and it's expected to remain so on the last trading day of the year, with a possible slight narrowing of the spot discount [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Fed's December meeting minutes showed agreement on a rate cut, but there was in - depth debate on economic risks. The committee will start buying short - term Treasury bills to maintain sufficient reserve supply and remove the total limit on standing repo operations [3] - **Mine End**: The Indian Supreme Court suspended a previous ruling on redefining the Aravalli Mountains, which aims to clarify protection and mining restrictions. The court will review the case on January 21, 2026, and the suspension of new mining leases remains in effect [4] - **Smelting and Import**: Starting from January 1, 2026, the provisional import tariffs for various copper products will be 0, unchanged from 2025 [5] - **Consumption**: The operating rates of refined copper rod and copper cable enterprises decreased. Under the influence of high copper prices, downstream procurement was weak, and inventories showed different trends. Next week, the operating rates of both industries are expected to decline slightly [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,450 tons to 149,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,860 tons to 71,738 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 214,800 tons on December 30, a change of 21,200 tons from the previous week [7] Strategy - For copper, downstream enterprises are advised to conduct on - demand hedging at current prices and increase buying hedging when prices fall to 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [8] - Arbitrage operations are suspended [8] - For options, sell put options [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend at the end of the year. Various factors such as policy, supply - demand, and geopolitical situation affect different sectors. For example, the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before the end of the year due to sector rotation; the bond market sentiment is average with limited new information and is waiting for the release of official PMI data; different commodity futures also show different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [21][24]. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market closes steadily. The index shows a volatile upward trend due to sector rotation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a bull spread for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Futures**: The performance at the close is differentiated. The market is waiting for the official PMI data. It is recommended to hold short positions in TS and TF lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: There is still supply pressure, and the market shows a small - scale shock. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short straddle strategy for options [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price drops sharply, and the domestic price follows weakly. It is expected to oscillate near the current platform. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: There is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival, go short after the rebound, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price rises, but the futures price falls from a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts, narrow the 03 corn - starch spread, and wait and see for options [39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure decreases, and the spot price continues to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price shows a narrow - range shock. It is recommended that the 05 contract oscillates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [47]. - **Eggs**: The demand slightly recovers, but the price drops. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [51]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term range, go long on the 1 contract and short on the 10 contract for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended that the US cotton oscillates in the range, the Zhengzhou cotton oscillates strongly with a possible short - term callback risk, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [60]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material replenishment starts, and the steel price maintains a range - bound shock. It is recommended to maintain the shock trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread, and wait and see for options [62][63]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They oscillate and wait for new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see mainly or go long on dips lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is repeated, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term [69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve, and the cost drives the price. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [72]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: They oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Pay attention to position management before the New Year's Day holiday. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and wait and see for options [80][81][82]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation intensifies. It is recommended to control the position, go long on dips in the long - term, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [83]. - **Alumina**: It oscillates mainly after the convergence of the warehouse receipt registration profit. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot delivery products and shorting futures, and wait and see for options [91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [94]. - **Zinc**: Control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [96]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the impact of funds on the price and control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [99]. - **Nickel**: The news of Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas boosts the price. It is recommended to treat it as an upward trend before a significant inventory build - up, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [100][101][102]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. It is recommended to follow the nickel price to go long and wait and see for arbitrage [105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It rebounds in the short - term and goes short on rallies in the medium - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The long - term fundamentals are favorable, but the short - term trading volume shrinks. It is recommended to be cautious, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The subsidy policy boosts the sentiment. It is recommended to control the position and be cautious, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [110]. - **Tin**: Some long - position funds take profits, and the price drops sharply. It is recommended to oscillate widely after the sharp drop and wait and see for options [113]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The MSK's price increase slightly exceeds expectations, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to take most profits on long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market trading is light at the end of the year, and geopolitical conflicts cause fluctuations. It is recommended to oscillate widely, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [117][118]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The near - end fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak. It is recommended to go short, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [126]. - **LPG**: The upward space is limited. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales and cost weaken, and the price drops from a high level. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [132]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene inventory build - up pressure slows down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to oscillate strongly, conduct short - pure benzene and long - styrene arbitrage, and wait and see for options [136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to oscillate widely in the short - term and weakly in the medium - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [139]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [143]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, and the downstream product profits are differentiated. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell both call and put options [146]. - **Plastic PP**: The PP inventory build - up rate slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions of the L 2605 contract, wait and see for the PP 2605 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage and wait and see, and sell and hold the PP2605 put option [148][149]. - **PVC**: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to rebound continuously, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [152]. - **Methanol**: It rises strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [154][155]. - **Urea**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant policies and wait and see for relevant operations [157][158]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The global economic data continues to improve. It is recommended to go short in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [162]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The chemical industry production slowdown continues. It is recommended to hold short positions of the BR 03 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [165].

【12月31日美联储会议纪要：FOMC同意降息，官员对政策分歧连续两次会议出现】12月31日消息， 最新美联储会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，且就美国当前面临的风险展开深入辩论。 纪要表明，鉴于美国面临的各类风险，部分支持降息的官员也承认，降息是权衡利弊的结果，他们本也 可能支持维持目标利率区间不变。 一些与会者称，按其展望，本次会议下调利率区间后，目标利率区 间或需在一段时间内保持不变。 此次会议辩论中，官员们在收紧和放松货币政策上存在分歧，这对美 联储而言是不寻常的结果，且已连续两次会议出现。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 扫码查看原文 FOG hexun.com 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has agreed to lower interest rates in December, but there are significant internal divisions among officials regarding this decision [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - During the December 9-10 monetary policy meeting, six officials explicitly opposed the rate cut, including two voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee [1][5]. - The meeting minutes indicate that "most participants" ultimately supported the rate cut, with some viewing it as a necessary forward-looking strategy to stabilize the labor market amid signs of slowing employment growth [1][5]. - Some officials expressed concerns about the Fed's ability to achieve the 2% inflation control target [1][5]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - Predictions suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement one more rate cut next year and is likely to maintain rates for a period until new data shows inflation decreasing or unemployment rising beyond expectations [1][5]. - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, with investors currently expecting the Fed to keep the benchmark rate unchanged [3][7]. Group 3: Economic Data Impact - The recent government shutdown has significantly affected the statistical data regarding the U.S. economy for October and November, complicating the Fed's ability to make further judgments [1][5].

1. Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the medium to long term, maintain a bullish view on the economy, and suggest buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips as stock index long - position substitution offers certain outperformance [3] - In the medium to long term, with a rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On December 30th, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index flat at 3965.12 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.49% at 13604.07 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.63% at 3242.9 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.01% at 1359.87 points. Market trading volume was 21,615 billion yuan, an increase of 38 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, the top gainers were petroleum and petrochemicals (+2.63%), automobiles (+1.35%), and non - ferrous metals (+1.31%); the top losers were commerce and retail (-1.56%), real estate (-1.22%), and public utilities (-1.14%) [2] - In terms of market strength, IC > IF > IH > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,837/148/3,473 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 94, - 144, - 14, and 253 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +117, +128, - 101, and - 144 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 77.3, 41.54, 21.28, and 3.15 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 7.71%, - 4.22%, - 3.47%, and - 0.79% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 54%, 57%, 31%, and 41% respectively [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On December 30th, interest - rate bonds showed mixed performance. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF fell 0.01%, T fell 0.02%, and TL rose 0.17% [3] - For the current active 2603 contract: the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250017.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.017, and an IRR of 1.61%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.031, and an IRR of 1.83%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.95 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.056, and an IRR of 1.43%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.065, and an IRR of 1.94% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 312.5 billion yuan and withdrew 59.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity levels of manufacturing, real estate, imports and exports, and social activities are currently lower than in previous periods, while the infrastructure prosperity level is similar to that of previous periods [11]

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.17%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.01%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 3125 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 593 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净投放 2532 亿元。 | | ...

【12 月 31 日美联储12 月会议纪要公布前夕美元走强】在美联储 12 月会议纪要将公布时，美元走强， 投资者试图判断未来货币政策路径。年末假期使交易量清淡，分析师提醒勿过度解读近期市场波动。 12 月会议上，美联储宣布降息，预计明年仅再降息一次，而市场已计入约两次额外降息。此次会议出 现三张反对票，一人主张 50 个基点更大规模降息，另两人认为没必要降息。 有分析师称，三张反对票 分布于支持和反对两端，在美联储内部不常见。当前看不到美联储政策明确方向，这反映在美元、汇率 和国债收益率上，市场缺乏明确指引。 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 美元:美联储纪要将公布,年末市场 波动信察 【12月 31 日美联储 12 月会议纪要公布前夕美元走 强】 在美联储 12月会议纪要将公布时,美元走强, 投资者试图判断未来货币政策路径。年末假期使交 易量清淡，分析师提醒勿过度解读近期市场波动。 12月会议上,美联储宣布降息,预计明年仅再降息 一次,而市场已计入约两次额外降息。此次会议出 现三张反对票,一人主张 50个基点更大规模降息, 另两人认为没必要降息。有分析师称,三张反对票 分布于支持和反对两端,在美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that there is significant disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the recent interest rate cut and the future monetary policy outlook [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee voted to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, with two members advocating for no change and one member suggesting a larger cut of 50 basis points, marking the first instance of such dissent since September 2019 [1] - Most officials believe that if inflation decreases as expected, further reductions in the federal funds rate may be appropriate, but some suggest maintaining rates for a period to assess the delayed impact of monetary policy on the labor market and economic activity [1][2] Group 2 - Officials assess that inflation risks remain high while employment risks are also elevated, particularly increasing from mid-2025 [2] - Many officials believe that the likelihood of tariffs causing sustained inflation pressure has decreased, making it appropriate for the Fed to ease monetary policy in response to employment risks [2] - All officials agree that there is no preset monetary policy path, and decisions will incorporate the latest data, economic outlook, and overall risk conditions [2]

The U.S. Federal Reserve agreed to cut interest rates at its December meeting only after a deeply nuanced debate about the risks facing the U.S. economy right now, according to minutes of the latest two-day session. Even some of those who supported the rate cut acknowledged "the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged,†given the different risks facing the U.S. economy, according to the minutes released on Tuesday. The quarter-point rate cut approved ...