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美银:中国为锂市场注入强心剂!锂正在重新平衡
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 15:10
编者按:美银发布研究报告指出,中国锂市场正经历深刻变革。从供应端看,政府因《矿产资源法》修订等,整治锂云母矿产能,关停部分矿山、加强 合规管理,推动市场再平衡,锂价有望受支撑;从需求端,电动汽车曾过度追求规模致产能过剩,如今 "反内卷" 行动调整,同时电池储能需求因可再生 能源发展重要性凸显,但其产量与装机量差异影响锂需求。变革中存在锂价上涨推高电动车行业成本等权衡,整体是政府引导资源合理开发、平衡多方 利益的结构性调整,重塑锂市场供需格局 。 几年前,由于矿山供应迅速增加,锂市场陷入过剩。尽管如此,如今自愿性的(中国境外)和强制性的(中国境内)生产管控,正使市场逐渐恢复常 态。 中国的 "反内卷" 行动对锂市场意义重大 中国政府修订了《矿产资源法》,新法规明确矿山的登记和审批权归自然资源部所有。这意味着地方政府未经自然资源部批准,不得擅自发放采矿许可 证,这也是目前诸多矿山接受调查的原因所在。 由于锂是战略资源,矿商必须在 2025 年 9 月 30 日前明确主要生产情况,并提交资源储量和品位评估报告。归根结底,有关部门正致力于实现以下几方 面的结合:1)削减产量;2)加强对在产矿山的合规管理;3)推行更严 ...
美银:中国为锂市场注入强心剂!锂正在重新平衡
智通财经网· 2025-08-18 14:43
智通财经APP获悉,美银发布研究报告指出,中国锂市场正经历深刻变革。从供应端看,政府因《矿产资源法》修订等,整治锂云母矿产能,关停部分 矿山、加强合规管理,推动市场再平衡,锂价有望受支撑;从需求端,电动汽车曾过度追求规模致产能过剩,如今 "反内卷" 行动调整,同时电池储能需 求因可再生能源发展重要性凸显,但其产量与装机量差异影响锂需求。变革中存在锂价上涨推高电动车行业成本等权衡,整体是政府引导资源合理开 发、平衡多方利益的结构性调整,重塑锂市场供需格局 。 几年前,由于矿山供应迅速增加,锂市场陷入过剩。尽管如此,如今自愿性的(中国境外)和强制性的(中国境内)生产管控,正使市场逐渐恢复常态。 迄今为止,中国有关部门已对部分企业采取了整治措施:在关闭宁德时代的JXW锂云母矿后,锂价上涨了 20%。虽然JXW矿的临时关闭缓解了供应过剩 的局面,但锂市场尚未出现短缺,政府仍在调查是否要再关停至少 10 万吨的锂云母产能。 如果这些矿场在 2025 年剩余时间内全部关闭,按照历史关系推算,今年锂的平均价格应有 20,000 美元 / 吨。鉴于今年以来锂的平均价格为 9,100 美元 / 吨,这一目标似乎难以实现。尽管如 ...
农产品日报-20250818
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 11:22
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy with Caution (★☆☆)**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Hogs [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Analysis Unclear**: Soybean, Eggs [1] 2. Core Views - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: USDA's August report was bullish for US soybeans, and dry conditions in the US may challenge new - season soybean growth. China's soybean supply is sufficient in the short - term but uncertain in the long - term. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors can enter on pullbacks [3]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Indonesian policies and market expectations have driven up palm oil prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility or correction, but in the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market was pressured by import expectations last week. However, considering the possible timing of Australian rapeseed imports, there may be a short - term rebound in rapeseed futures prices, and a short - term long strategy is advisable [6]. - **Corn**: The continuous release of imported corn has affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. - **Live Hogs**: Supply pressure will keep live hog prices weak in the second half of the year. The 11 - contract has rebounded and then fallen, and industrial players are advised to hedge on rallies [8]. - **Eggs**: High production capacity has pressured egg prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of profit - taking by short - selling funds, and the market is in a contango situation [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean - Last week, soybean prices fluctuated greatly due to the influence of surrounding varieties and the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on rapeseed. However, due to weak fundamentals, prices quickly fell after a short - term rise. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is shrinking. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy impacts [2] Soybean Meal - USDA's August report was bullish for US soybeans. In the next two weeks, dry conditions in the US may challenge new - season soybean growth. China's soybean supply is sufficient in the short - term but uncertain in the long - term. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors can enter on pullbacks [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Indonesian policies and market expectations have driven up palm oil prices. The strength of the palm oil market is mainly driven by the Indonesian market. The relative valuation of palm oil is not low. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility or correction, but in the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market was pressured by import expectations last week. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be good. There is a possibility that Australian rapeseed will enter the Chinese market, but it is uncertain when. The rapeseed futures prices may rebound in the short - term, and a short - term long strategy is advisable [6] Corn - As of August 18th, the low - volume trading of imported corn auctions has affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are likely to remain weak. The 11 - contract has rebounded and then fallen, and industrial players are advised to hedge on rallies [8] Eggs - High production capacity has pressured egg prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of profit - taking by short - selling funds, and the market is in a contango situation [9]
依法严肃查处“新三样”领域偷骗税等违法行为 以税收公平助力反“内卷”和全国统一大市场建设
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-18 07:53
Group 1 - The core issue is the misuse of tax incentives by some entities in the "New Three Samples" sector, which undermines high-quality development and fair competition [1][2] - Some companies are engaging in tax evasion through fraudulent practices such as issuing false invoices and overstating expenses, which distorts market mechanisms and harms compliant businesses [1][2] - The government emphasizes the need for strict enforcement against tax fraud to ensure that tax benefits reach companies focused on innovation and quality improvement [2][3] Group 2 - There is a call for optimizing the policy framework to prevent overcapacity and "involution" competition, promoting sustainable high-quality development in the "New Three Samples" industry [3] - Adjustments to fiscal subsidy standards and tax incentive policies are necessary to shift the industry focus from being policy-driven to innovation-driven [3] - Legal compliance in tax payments is highlighted as a fundamental requirement for businesses to ensure long-term stability and growth in the "New Three Samples" sector [3]
中加贸易争端再升级,中国向WTO提起诉讼,加拿大这下难受了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 04:51
在中加两国的经贸关系一直波动不断的背景下,北京于8月15日正式向世界贸易组织(WTO)提起诉讼,指控加拿大对钢铁进口的限制措 施违反了国际贸易规则。这一举动不仅凸显了两国在钢铁领域日益加剧的摩擦,还表明了更广泛的贸易壁垒问题。毫无疑问,这标志 着"争端再度升级",尤其是在几天前,中国已经对加拿大的油菜籽实施了临时反倾销措施。 这一系列争端的升级迅速对两国经济产生了影响,最明显的就是钢铁行业的直接对抗。加拿大政府在今年7月宣布扩大进口钢铁关税配 额,并对来自非美国国家、含有中国熔炼或浇铸钢铁成分的产品征收25%的附加税。中方强烈反应,认为这一举措是一种典型的保护主 义,目的是将美国对加拿大钢铝征收50%关税的压力转移到中国。据加拿大工业部的数据,预计2024年,加拿大的钢铁进口总额将超过 160亿美元,其中约10%来自中国,而其中的91%将出口到美国。这表明,加拿大的措施虽然旨在保护本国钢铁产业,但却有可能破坏中加 双边贸易总额高达1200亿加元的贸易格局。更为复杂的是,这一政策还扩展到了下游产品领域,例如电动汽车的零部件,这无疑加剧了两 国在新兴产业上的竞争。 但其实,争端的根本原因远不止钢铁领域。回顾去年的 ...
PP:趋势偏弱,但低位追空要谨慎
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The PP trend is weak, but one should be cautious when short - selling at low levels. The cost side has been weak recently, and the demand side lacks obvious highlights. The market terminal suffers from over - capacity and great foreign trade uncertainties, leading to a weakening of export products. The domestic rigid - demand start - up has slightly increased, with active low - level procurement and cautious high - level procurement. The supply pressure has further increased due to profit repair from cost reduction and the implementation of new production capacity expansion. However, there is still great uncertainty on the cost side, and one should be vigilant at the annual low levels, especially considering the recent strengthening of the monthly spread driving market fluctuations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 7084, with a daily decline of 0.14%. The trading volume was 175,405, and the open interest increased by 12,810. The basis of the 01 contract was - 104 (compared with - 85 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was 4 (compared with - 2 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Price**: In the North China region, the spot price was 6900 - 7030 yuan/ton (6920 - 7070 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 6980 - 7110 yuan/ton (7000 - 7130 yuan/ton the previous day); in the South China region, it was 6920 - 7130 yuan/ton (6930 - 7130 yuan/ton the previous day) [1] 3.2 Spot News - Last Friday, the domestic PP market declined slightly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The weak intraday futures trading dragged down the spot market sentiment. Traders were generally in a wait - and - see mood. Coupled with the partial reduction of upstream petrochemical factory prices, the offers of traders in the market were mainly weakly adjusted. Near the weekend, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers to enter the market was average, and their willingness to take delivery was not strong, resulting in a dull market transaction [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The cost side has been continuously weak, and the demand side has no obvious highlights. The market terminal is restricted by over - capacity and faces great foreign trade uncertainties, leading to a weakening of export products. The domestic rigid - demand start - up has slightly increased. The market has been characterized by active low - level procurement and cautious high - level procurement throughout the year. On the supply side, the supply pressure has further increased due to profit repair from cost reduction and the implementation of new production capacity expansion. However, there is still great uncertainty on the cost side, and one should be vigilant at the annual low levels, especially considering the recent strengthening of the monthly spread driving market fluctuations [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, weakly - weak, neutral, weakly - strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3]
聚烯烃:趋势仍有压力,但低位追空要谨慎
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 12:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The trend of polyolefins is still under pressure, but short - selling at low levels requires caution. For polypropylene, the trend is weak, with potential supply increases and cost uncertainties. For polyethylene, it is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [1][6][7][10]. - The core driver is the negative feedback in the market driven by the collapse of the cost side. Although the trend is weak, short - selling at low levels should be done with caution in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 View Summary 3.1.1 Polypropylene - This week, China's polypropylene production was 78.31 tons, a 0.77% increase from last week and a 19.21% increase from the same period last year. Next week, the average capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 77.8% [6]. - The demand for polypropylene products is expected to rise with the approaching peak season. However, the current cost side is weak, the demand side lacks highlights, and the supply pressure is increasing. The market is expected to be volatile and weak, with the upper pressure at 7200 - 7300 and the lower support at 6800 - 6900. The recommended strategies are to buy 09 and sell 01 in the inter - period, and no cross - variety strategy is recommended for now [6][7][8]. 3.1.2 Polyethylene - China's polyethylene production enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. The demand is in the off - season, with weak terminal orders. The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. The market is expected to show range - bound fluctuations, with the 09 contract having an upper pressure of 7400 and a lower support of 7100 - 7200. No inter - period or cross - variety strategy is recommended [10]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Supply - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this period was 77.91%, a 0.60% increase. Sinopec's capacity utilization rate was 81.53%, a 1.96% increase [24]. - In August, there are still some large - scale maintenance plans, but new production capacity and restarts have led to an increase in production. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 520.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 11.7% [22][26][28]. - The production inventory and trader inventory have decreased. The total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 82.74 tons, a 3.41% decrease from the previous period [30][34]. 3.2.2 Demand - The downstream industries of polypropylene have different performances. The BOPP industry has increased its start - up rate, order days, and has a high - level finished product inventory, but its profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The tape mother roll industry has a flat start - up rate but an increase in order days. The plastic weaving industry has a flat start - up rate and order days. The non - woven fabric industry has an increased start - up rate and a moderately high finished product inventory. The CPP industry has increased its start - up rate and order days [43][51][53][58][60]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Supply - The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises in China was 86.82%, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. The production this week was 66.11 tons, a 0.14% increase from last week. The expected maintenance loss in August will decrease compared to July. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [10][70][71][72]. - The production enterprise inventory and social inventory have decreased. The sample inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 44.45 tons, a 13.76% decrease from the previous period [74][77]. 3.3.2 Demand - The downstream industries of polyethylene are in the off - season. The agricultural film industry has an increased start - up rate but a decrease in order days. The packaging film industry has a decreased start - up rate and order days. The pipe and hollow industries have a lower start - up rate compared to the same period last year [86][87][88].
有色早报-20250815
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on copper prices is bullish, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of long overseas and short domestic positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month inter - month and long overseas and short domestic positions; in the long term, pay attention to actual demand as overseas supply is the main variable [2]. - For zinc, in the short term, it shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of commodity sentiment. Long overseas and short domestic positions can be continued to hold, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of inter - month long positions [3]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average. The opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak overall. In the short term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectations, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [12]. - For lead, it is expected that battery manufacturers will replenish their stocks next week, and the center of lead prices will rise [13]. - For tin, in the short term, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as there are both raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [14]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the supply - demand balance has been achieved in August, and it may turn to surplus if one of the southwest region or Hesheng reaches full production. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, it will still oscillate at a low level [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - In the first half of the week, copper prices were supported around 78,000 yuan, and downstream purchasing improved. In the second half of the week, with the decline of the US dollar index and low domestic refined - scrap spreads, copper prices were strong, attempting to break through 79,000 yuan on Friday night [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. August is a seasonal off - peak for demand, with weak aluminum product exports, a decline in the photovoltaic sector, and some downstream production cuts. Overseas demand declined significantly. In August, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [2]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, domestic TC has difficulty rising, while imported TC is rising slowly. In August, the increase in smelting production was further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand weakened seasonally, and most spot prices outside Shanghai turned to discounts. Overseas, European demand is average, but some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventory is rising, while overseas LME inventory is decreasing rapidly [3]. Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. In terms of inventory, both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged [8]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills have cut production passively, and some in the north are affected by the parade. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. In terms of inventory, inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged [12]. Lead - This week, lead prices declined. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries is tight. The recycling rate of recycled lead remains low. On the demand side, the inventory of finished batteries is high, and the market's expectation of the peak season has fallen short of reality. The domestic social inventory is rising, and LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased [13]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fees at the mine end are low, and some domestic smelters are reducing production and entering the maintenance period. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, but the recruitment is difficult. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the terminal electronics and photovoltaic sectors are expected to slow down. Domestic inventory is rising, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level, with a risk of short - squeezing [14]. Industrial Silicon - In the short term, the supply - demand balance has been achieved in August, and it may turn to surplus if one of the southwest region or Hesheng reaches full production. In the long - term, the over - capacity situation is still serious, and it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, due to resource - end compliance disturbances and the approaching downstream peak season, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the long - term, if the resource - end risk is resolved, it will still oscillate at a low level [19].
一周碳要闻:新能源行业密集“反内卷”(碳报第159期)
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-08-15 08:08
Industry Dynamics - In the first half of the year, investment in key energy projects across the country exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [2] - Investment in renewable energy generation has seen rapid growth, with land-based wind power investments in Guangxi and Xinjiang doubling compared to the same period last year [2] - Private enterprises in the energy sector have also seen significant investment growth, with a year-on-year increase of 27.8% [2] Lithium Industry Updates - UBS raised its lithium price forecasts for the next three years following the suspension of mining operations at CATL's Yichun project, indicating that concerns over lithium supply surplus have diminished [3] - The new Mineral Resources Law is driving supply-side structural reforms in the lithium industry by increasing entry barriers and compliance costs [3] Anti-Competition Initiatives - Major lithium battery separator companies have agreed to pause capacity expansion and implement price discipline to stabilize profitability [4] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's lithium division has called for collaboration across the supply chain to combat "involution" and promote healthy industry development [5][6] Local News - Guangdong has introduced the first systematic judicial guarantee document for carbon emission quota pledge financing, aiming to reduce financing costs and activate carbon assets [7] - Guangzhou has released a high-quality development plan for virtual power plants, targeting a capacity of 500,000 kW by 2027 [8] Market Trends - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a significant "involution" crisis, with prices for materials like silicon dropping dramatically [14] - The overcapacity issue in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors is leading to unsustainable pricing and profitability challenges [15][16] Policy Responses - The Chinese government is implementing a multi-layered governance system to address the "involution" crisis in the renewable energy sector, including industry self-regulation and legal revisions [18][19] - Recent data indicates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of stabilization, reflecting the effectiveness of the government's anti-involution measures [20] Price Recovery - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen a price rebound of 20%-30% as a result of various initiatives and industry responses [21]
强力“反内卷”,新能源企业加速出清
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-08-15 08:07
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese renewable energy industry is facing an unprecedented "involution" crisis, characterized by significant price drops in key materials and components, prompting industry associations to advocate against unfair competition and promote healthy development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The price of silicon materials has plummeted by 90%, and the cost of energy storage systems has entered the "0.3 yuan era," while the average bidding price for wind power equipment has decreased by 65% from its peak in 2020 [1]. - Overcapacity is identified as the core issue of the involution crisis, with rapid capacity expansion in the photovoltaic industry leading to severe overcapacity risks by 2025, despite projected demand of 160 to 180 million tons of polysilicon [2]. - The energy storage sector is also experiencing significant overcapacity, with around 200 GWh of annual installed capacity, which could lead to insufficient orders for the numerous active system integrators [2]. Group 2: Industry Responses - Various industry associations, including the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, have issued initiatives to combat unfair competition and promote healthy industry development [1][5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is actively seeking feedback on the draft revision of the Price Law, which aims to address issues of low-price dumping and restore price order in the market [4][6]. - A total of 152 companies have participated in the initiative to maintain fair competition in the energy storage sector, indicating strong industry support for self-regulation [5]. Group 3: Policy Measures - The Chinese government is implementing a multi-layered governance system to address the involution crisis, including industry self-regulation, legal revisions, and price monitoring [4][6]. - Recent policy announcements from various government departments emphasize the need to regulate low-price competition and encourage the exit of outdated capacities [6]. - As a result of these measures, there has been a reported 20%-30% increase in prices across the photovoltaic supply chain, reflecting the initial effectiveness of the "anti-involution" actions [6].