【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月6日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格周初下跌后稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至 78.26%，PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同 期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月 份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美 元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出 口仍较好，目前出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施 工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附 近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，50 万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨/年的天津渤化8月份试生产后，预 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, the current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected, high imports likely in November, difficult resolution of the 01 contract contradictions, expected resolution of port sanctions before the end of gas restrictions, difficult inventory reduction, limited upward momentum for methanol, and the downward space depending on the inland situation. Recent coal price increases do not affect profits [1] - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, the 09 contract basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now, non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other price differences are volatile, LD is weakening, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6] - For PP, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, non - standard price differences are neutral, import profit is around -700, export is good, PDH profit is around -400, propylene price is volatile, powder material operation rate is stable,拉丝 production ratio is neutral, future supply is expected to increase slightly, downstream orders are average, and attention should be paid to export volume and PDH device maintenance [6] - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 01 - 270, factory - delivery basis is -480, downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, low - price inventory holding willingness is strong, mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, recent export orders have slightly decreased, coal sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to export, coal price, housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rate [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Methanol - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the prices of methanol in various regions showed different degrees of decline. The daily change on November 5 showed a 5 - unit increase in the Lunan converted - to - futures price and a 15 - unit increase in the main contract basis [1] Polyethylene (PE) - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740 on some days, and the prices of various PE products in different regions generally declined. The daily change on November 5 showed a 20 - unit decrease in the North China LL price and a 65 - unit decrease in the main futures price, with a 60 - unit increase in the basis [6] Polypropylene (PP) - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the prices of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asian propylene decreased, and the prices of various PP products in different regions also declined. The daily change on November 5 showed an 80 - unit decrease in the Shandong propylene price and a 69 - unit decrease in the main futures price [6] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide decreased from 2500 to 2400, and the prices of various PVC products in different regions also declined. The daily change on November 5 showed a 50 - unit decrease in the Northwest calcium carbide price and a 30 - unit decrease in the calcium - carbide - based East China PVC price, with a 10 - unit increase in the basis [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hebei Guoliang New Materials Co., Ltd., is preparing for a listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange, facing significant performance fluctuations and market competition risks, particularly from industry leaders like Beijing Lier [1][3][19]. Company Overview - Hebei Guoliang New Materials was established in 2002 and entered the National Equities Exchange and Quotations (NEEQ) innovation layer in May 2024. The company specializes in high-temperature industrial refractory materials and provides comprehensive contracting services [1]. - The company has experienced substantial revenue fluctuations, with reported revenues of 937.47 million yuan, 984.36 million yuan, 904.69 million yuan, and 511.50 million yuan from 2022 to June 2025 [3]. Financial Performance - The net profits for the same period were 40.37 million yuan, 83.80 million yuan, 70.96 million yuan, and 41.50 million yuan, indicating a decline in profitability [3]. - In 2024, the company faced a revenue decline of 7.97 million yuan (8.09%) and a net profit decrease of 1.28 million yuan (15.31%) due to weak market demand in the steel industry [3]. Production Capacity and Risks - The company has reported overproduction risks in its magnesium-carbon brick workshop, with actual production reaching 85,000 tons against an approved capacity of 80,000 tons, leading to a 6.31% overproduction rate [4]. - The company plans to use the proceeds from its upcoming fundraising for capacity expansion projects, which may lead to further challenges in market absorption [7]. Market Dynamics - The refractory materials industry is heavily reliant on the steel sector, which accounts for approximately 65% of total refractory material usage. The demand for refractory materials has been declining due to reduced consumption per ton of steel produced [3]. - The company’s market share in North China was 4.69%, 4.62%, and 4.83% from 2022 to 2024, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from the local market [16]. Customer Base and Accounts Receivable - The company has a high concentration of sales among its top five customers, with total sales to these customers accounting for nearly 49% of its revenue in 2025 [7]. - Accounts receivable have been steadily increasing, with balances of 442.29 million yuan, 480.98 million yuan, 481.02 million yuan, and 484.36 million yuan from 2022 to June 2025 [8]. Competitive Landscape - The refractory materials industry in China is fragmented, with over 2,000 companies and low market concentration. Only 13 companies had sales exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2024 [13]. - Major competitors include Beijing Lier and other regional players, with the company facing challenges in market influence and pricing power compared to these industry leaders [14][19].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月5日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%， PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只 是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价 下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨 左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍 较好，目前出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施 工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附 近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，50 万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨/年的天津渤化8月份试生产后，预 ...

Core Insights - The Latin American chemical industry is facing significant profit pressure due to excessive imports and declining local production [1][2] - The region has become a dumping ground for surplus chemical products, leading to a lack of competitiveness for local industries [1][3] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The Latin American petrochemical sector is under continuous pressure from global supply surplus and low pricing, with local production declining while imports surge [1] - In Mexico, the state-owned oil company, Pemex, has seen its petrochemical output drop by nearly 75% over the past few years, exacerbating the need for imports [1][2] - Brazil is experiencing low demand and falling prices, with local production being squeezed by imports, despite some protective measures [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Regulatory Issues - Mexico's natural gas production has decreased by one-third over the past 15 years, leading to a reliance on U.S. imports for 70% of its consumption, while pipeline infrastructure is at full capacity [2] - The Mexican chemical industry faces logistical challenges, with ports and transportation networks overwhelmed, and a significant increase in inspection rates causing delays [2] Group 3: Trade Policies and Solutions - Mexico has implemented aggressive trade protection measures similar to U.S. policies, including tariffs on chemical products with significant import increases [3] - The USMCA agreement allows for competitive pricing on natural gas and aims for greater self-sufficiency in raw material production [3] - Despite protective measures, the underlying issue of local production capacity remains a critical challenge for the industry [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian shutdowns are slower than expected, and November is likely to see high imports. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory depletion is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China. Import profits are around -200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differentials are volatile. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025 [6]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import losses are around -700. Exports have been good this year. PDH profits are around -400, and propylene prices are volatile. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is -480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weak, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to production implementation and export sustainability in Q4. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, and costs are stable [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Southwest delivered - price decreased by 40 on November 4 compared to the previous data point, and the盘面MTO profit decreased by 5 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Iranian shutdowns are slower than expected, leading to high imports in November. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory depletion difficult. Coal price increases do not affect methanol profits [1]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at some points, and the LL主力期货 price decreased by 9 on November 4 compared to the previous data point. The basis in North China is around -110, and in East China is around -50 [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Overall inventory is neutral. Upstream and downstream inventories are in a neutral state. Domestic linear production has decreased recently, and 9 - month maintenance is flat compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained stable on November 4 compared to the previous day, and the主力期货 price decreased by 16. The basis increased by 30 [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. PDH profits are around -400, and propylene prices are volatile. Future supply is expected to increase slightly [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the context of over - capacity, the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda prices remained stable. The calcium carbide - based PVC price in East China decreased by 10 on November 4 compared to the previous data point, and the basis remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Situation**: Downstream开工率 is seasonally weak, and mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to production implementation and export sustainability in Q4 [6].

【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比回升0.24个百分点至52.61%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中塑编开工率环比 回落0.2个百分点至44.2%，塑编订单环比略有减少，略低于去年同期。11月4日，检修装置变动不大， PP企业开工率维持在81.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至25.5%左右。月初石化 累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，近日市场消化俄罗斯石油受制裁消息， 中美两国领导人会谈基本符合市场预期，两国关系并未根本性改变，OPEC+决定12月增产13.7万桶/日， 但明年一季度暂停增产，原油价格窄幅震荡。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中 旬投产，近期检修装置略有增加。天气有所好转，下游逐步进入金九银十旺季，塑编开工稳定，PP 下游多数行业有继续走高预期，只是目前旺季需求不及预期，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，国庆节后 备货需求阶段性减弱，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。PP产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地，当然反内 卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。预计近期PP偏弱震荡。 【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月4日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%，PVC开工 率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏 低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40 美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季 度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前 出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份， 房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进 一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善 仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - Sino-US trade negotiations have made progress, but the situation has not exceeded market expectations, and market optimism has declined [2] - PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. China's polyester exports are still optimistic [2] - Although there are rumors that polyester will fight against involution, due to the lack of more information from the meeting, PTA processing fees have been compressed to less than 200. The industry profit is still constrained by over - capacity caused by new device commissioning [2] - Despite the end of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", export demand may improve under the background of the easing of the Sino - US trade war. The current peak season in the downstream weaving industry is expected to last until November [2] Group 2: Data Summary Spot Price and Closing Price - PTA spot price increased from 4510 to 4535, and the closing price rose from 4586 to 4596 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4106 to 4068, and the closing price dropped from 4018 to 3970 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6405 to 6390 [2] Other Indicators - Short - fiber basis decreased from 174 to 131, and the 12 - 1 spread decreased from 38 to 46 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246 [2] - Polyester bottle sheet average price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained flat, and the spot processing fee increased from 466 to 475 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn price and 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1005 to 990 [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 49.00% to 47.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 63.50%, and recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

发布时间：2025年11月03日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%，PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于 近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12 月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50 美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前出口签单暂 未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品 ...