Core Insights - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has successfully broken the 6.97 mark, reaching a high of 6.9678, marking the highest level since May 2023, driven by both short-term market sentiment and long-term support from an improved RMB ecosystem and enhanced cross-border payment convenience [2] Group 1: Support Behind the Exchange Rate Breakthrough - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to ongoing upgrades in internal financial infrastructure, including the launch of the digital RMB 2.0, which offers interest on wallet balances at a rate of 0.05%, making China the first economy to provide interest on central bank digital currency [3] - As of November 2025, the digital RMB has recorded 3.48 billion transactions totaling 16.7 trillion yuan, with 230 million personal wallets and 1.884 million corporate wallets, indicating a growing penetration in cross-border scenarios [3] - The upcoming implementation of new CIPS business rules on February 1, 2026, will ease access for foreign institutions, enhancing the efficiency of RMB cross-border circulation with 190 direct participants and 1,567 indirect participants globally [3] Group 2: Analysis and Outlook on Appreciation Trend - The breakthrough of the 6.97 exchange rate reflects increasing market confidence in the RMB, with the interest mechanism for digital RMB wallets enhancing their savings attributes and reducing holding risks, thereby attracting more users [4] - The global expansion of the CIPS system facilitates easier use of the RMB in cross-border trade and investment, steadily improving its international acceptance [4] - Long-term trends suggest that the RMB will continue to appreciate, supported by the ongoing development of the digital RMB ecosystem and the implementation of new CIPS regulations, although exchange rate fluctuations will still be influenced by global economic conditions and monetary policies of major economies [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong start in 2024, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.76% on January 2, breaking through the previous month's technical platform [1] - The appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is a significant factor driving the rise in Hong Kong stocks, with predictions of further appreciation to around 6.8 by 2026, encouraging foreign capital to invest in Renminbi assets [1] - Strong expectations in the global technology sector, particularly in AI and semiconductors, are positively impacting Hong Kong stocks, with notable performance from Samsung due to high demand for AI-related storage chips [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 4% on January 2, supported by the strong performance of key technology stocks, including the anticipated listing of Baidu's Kunlun chip and the positive reception of Wall Street technology [2] - Collaborations between companies like Huahong Semiconductor and Huahong Group are expected to positively impact financial reports, further validating market optimism [2] - The financial sector, especially the insurance industry, has shown strong performance, with the appreciation of the Renminbi significantly enhancing the relative value of financial assets, attracting more investment attention [2] Group 3 - The rise of non-ferrous metal stocks, exemplified by Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, reflects the active market for precious and minor metals, with optimistic market sentiment towards the sector [3] - In the consumer sector, ETFs related to home appliances and tourism have performed well, with over 208 million people expected to travel during the New Year period, a 21% increase year-on-year, boosting stocks related to travel [3] - Overall, the combination of Renminbi appreciation, global technology resonance, and strong performance across four key industries has set a positive foundation for the Hong Kong stock market at the beginning of the year [3]

自去年4月开始，人民币从7.35低位拾级而上，在2025年最后一个交易日，人民币更升穿7算心理关口，并触及6.9855，为两年半来首 次，主要因为年末出口商集中抛售美元的推动下，人民币走强。 管理人民币升值速度对央行而言颇具挑战。如果人民币升得太快，会对出口行业造成明显冲击；但人民币升值有助于推动经济向消 费驱动转型。央行需要在[短期阵痛与长期收益] 之间取得平衡。 回顾去年，人民币兑美元确实显著走强，尤其踏入11月下旬后升值速度加快。不过，若从单一美元转向整体货币篮子，便会发觉， 人民币对其他主要非美货币的表现仍然偏弱，反映今次升值更多是美元因素主导，而非人民币全面转强。 人民币2025全年累计升值约5%，终止连续三年贬值走势，并创五年来最大年度升幅。人行近期试图通过更偏弱的中间价指引以及官 媒口头警示来防止人民币升值过快，但未能扭转人民币持续走强的趋势。 周三是2025年最后一个交易日，主要中资国有银行进行年终结账，这令即期市场上的购汇需求阶段性减少，从而推升人民币。预计 这波"沽卖美元潮"可能延续至农历新年结束。 部分投行此前已普遍预期人民币将升破7关口。例如，美国银行全球研究预计，到2026年第四季度 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rally on January 2, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.76% to close at 26,338.47 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 2.86%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index surging by 4% [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw collective gains, with Baidu rising by 9.35%, Tencent and Alibaba increasing by over 4%, and Kuaishou and JD.com gaining over 3% [3][5] - Semiconductor stocks also performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor up by 9.4% and SMIC increasing by over 5% [3][10] - Wind power equipment stocks surged, with Goldwind Technology rising nearly 21% [3] - The gaming sector saw broad increases, with NetEase, Zhongyou Game, and Qingci Game all rising over 6% [3][14] - Some sectors, including film, lottery, and dairy products, showed weakness [3] Notable Stocks - Hua Hong Semiconductor's stock price reached 81.30 HKD, up by 9.42% [6][11] - Baidu's stock price closed at 143.80 HKD, up by 9.35% [6][16] - Goldwind Technology's stock price increased to 16.22 HKD, up by 20.95% [9] - The stock of the newly listed company, Birun Technology, surged by 75.8% on its debut, reaching a market capitalization of nearly 81.3 billion HKD [10] Industry Developments - The aerospace and defense sector saw gains, with Dalu Aerospace Technology Holdings rising over 13% [8] - The electric power equipment sector experienced widespread increases, with several companies, including Shanghai Electric and Harbin Electric, also showing positive performance [9] - The tourism and travel sector was active, with Hong Kong Travel and Ctrip Group both rising over 5% [12][13] - The gaming sector remained vibrant, with multiple companies, including Feiyu Technology and NetEase, showing significant gains [14] Future Outlook - According to industry analysts, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bullish trend in 2026, with a focus on growth and value reconstruction [20] - The net profit growth rate for Hong Kong Stock Connect constituent stocks is projected to reach 7.3% year-on-year, with sectors like information technology, discretionary consumption, and healthcare leading the growth [20]

半导体指数暴涨8.3%。截至发稿，华虹半导体涨超10%、中芯国际(00981.HK)涨9.89%。消息方面，华虹半导体发布多份公告表示，公司拟通过发行股份 方式向华虹集团等4名交易对方购买其合计持有的华力微97.4988%股权，并拟向不超过35名符合条件的特定对象发行股票募集配套资金。 "港股GPU第一股"壁仞科技今日上市，盘中表现活跃。该股盘初一度大涨近120%，截至发稿，涨幅有所回落，但仍大涨80%，总市值突破800亿港元。 每经编辑｜何小桃 1月2日，港股2026年首个交易日迎来开门红。 在科技股领涨下，港股市场走势强劲，截至发稿，恒生指数大涨近700点，涨幅为2.73%，恒生科技指数涨超4%。 | 恒生指数 | 恒生国企 | 恒生科技 | | --- | --- | --- | | 26329.53 | 9167.38 | 5746.31 | | +698.99 +2.73% | +253.70 +2.85% | +230.33 +4.18% | | 恒指期货 | 港股通50 | 恒生生物科技 | | 26395 | 3974.99 | 14442.02 | | +747 +2.91% | +96.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed 6.97 against the USD, continuing its appreciation trend since the end of 2025, with expectations for RMB to officially return to the "6" range by 2026 [1] Group 1: Factors Supporting RMB Strength - The weakening of the USD index, driven by the high debt pressure in the US and the Federal Reserve's difficulty in tightening policies, creates favorable external conditions for RMB appreciation [1] - Continuous improvement in the domestic economic fundamentals, along with the release of policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan," has significantly enhanced market confidence in RMB assets [1] Group 2: Trade Surplus Impact - Approximately $900 billion in unconverted trade surplus accumulated over the past three years is showing signs of returning, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate [1]

人民币全年升值4.2%，美元却跌了9.4%！ 这背后藏着央行的一场精心调控。 如果你在2025年1月需要1万美元，你得准备7.299万元人民币；如果你等到12月 31日再去换，只需要6.994万元，足足省了3000多元。 可奇怪的是，美元在这一年里的贬值幅度高达9.4%，而人民币的升值幅度还不到它的一半。 欧元、日元等其他主要货币对美元的升值幅度都远超人民币。 这种"克制"的升值节奏并非偶然。 2025年，特朗普政府推出了所谓的"对等关税"政策，给中国出口企业带来了巨大压力。 如果人民币升值太快，出口企业 将同时面临关税上涨和汇率升值的双重挤压。 中国船舶宣布2026年开展外汇套期保值业务，新开展交易额度预计不超过240亿美元。 宁德时代调整后的外汇套期保值额度最高合约价值不超过2600亿元。 跨境资金流动更加活跃。 11月单月中国实际使用外资同比增长26.1%，改变了此前同比下降的趋势。 人民币资产吸引力提升，外资增配中国股票等资产，直接增加了对人民币的需求。 央行通过汇率中间价等工具悄悄引导着升值节奏。 全年人民币汇率呈现出明显的"先弱后强、波动收窄"特征。 年初到4月初，人民币甚至一度贬值至7.35附近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the 6.97 mark, continuing the appreciation trend since the end of 2025, with expectations for RMB to return to the "6" range by 2026 [1] Group 1: Supporting Factors for RMB Strength - The US faces high debt pressure, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to tighten policies, which has led to a continuous weakening of the USD index, creating favorable external conditions for RMB appreciation [1] - The domestic economic fundamentals are continuously improving, coupled with the release of policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan," significantly enhancing market confidence in RMB assets [1] Group 2: Trade Surplus and Its Impact - Approximately $900 billion in unconverted trade surplus accumulated over the past three years is showing signs of returning, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate [1]

对于港股2026年走势，国联民生证券认为，2026年尤其是上半年，国内经济弱复苏、美联储宽松未完、 产业催化延续的情形对港股仍有利。资金层面，2026年南向资金仍有6300亿港元—10500亿港元的增量 空间，其中被动指数基金和险资的空间相对更大；外资方面，随着经济修复继续和企业盈利预期改善， 外资2026年或继续波段式结构性回流。 配置方面，国联民生证券认为，对港股科技股而言，阶段性回调或带来配置机会，不过当前港股科技巨 头的估值与盈利基本匹配，估值再抬升需要盈利增长的推动，或者有赖于资金环境的超预期改善。当前 港股的景气策略有效性仍维持高位，关注建议零售、半导体、材料和软件服务板块。对红利资产而言， 考虑低利率环境和港股投资者结构，中期仍可继续作为底仓配置。 对于人民币未来升值趋势，西部证券认为，短期看，大量的待结汇资金和跨境资本有望随人民币升值加 速结汇、回流，强化人民币升值趋势；中长期看，中国强大的工业实力带来的出口竞争力是人民币升值 的根本动力。就大类资产配置而言，继续坚定看好A股、H股及国债等人民币资产；黄金保持战略配 置，但对投机交易保持谨慎；工业金属关注铜、铝、镍等品种；美股、美债或维持震荡。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong start in 2026, with all three major indices rising over 2% on the first trading day [1][3] - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.18%, 2.26%, and 3.38% respectively, with the Hang Seng Index recovering above the 26,000-point mark [3] - Semiconductor, internet giants, home appliances, and automotive sectors showed significant strength, contributing to the overall market performance [1][5] Group 2 - Wall Street's first listed stock in Hong Kong, Biren Technology, debuted with a strong performance, initially rising over 100% and closing up 72.86%, with a market capitalization exceeding 80 billion HKD [1][5][7] - Biren Technology's IPO price was set at 19.6 HKD per share, raising a total of 5.583 billion HKD, with a subscription rate of 2347.53 times [7] - The company focuses on providing general intelligent computing solutions and aims to develop smart computing hardware and software platforms [6][7] Group 3 - The offshore RMB strengthened significantly, breaking the 6.97 mark against the USD, reaching a high of 6.96755, the highest level since May 2023 [1][7] - Analysts expect the RMB appreciation trend to continue due to strong industrial competitiveness and capital inflows [11]