关税冲击影响跟踪：宏观与消费 20250513 摘要 • 中美贸易摩擦缓和预期提升风险偏好，利好中国市场，但 30%关税仍是重 要影响。中国资本市场有望相对美国表现更好，短期内贸易摩擦调整较多 的板块或反弹，科技加红利仍是看好的主线。 • 预计全年中国对美出口仍将保持正增长，即使美国加征 30%的关税，对美 出口下降 25 个百分点，对整体出口影响为 3.6 个百分点，对 GDP 影响大 约是 0.5 个百分点。 • 政策应对方面，应重点落实存量政策，通过政策性金融工具应对短期冲击， 预计规模在 8,000 亿到 1 万亿左右，而非增发国债或调整赤字率。 • 中国消费产业链具备国际竞争力，在中美贸易摩擦中表现出强韧性。建议 关注国际化能力优秀且海外产能布局丰富的消费行业龙头，如美的、海尔、 海信家电和 TCL 电子。 • 医药行业大部分药品获得关税豁免，但医疗设备加征 145%关税导致对美 出口基本停滞。创新药板块表现强势，医疗设备及耗材类公司股价表现弱 势。关注美国 CPI 上升及特朗普政策对医药行业的影响。 Q&A 目前中国面临的关税情况如何？ 目前，中国面临的关税包括 20%的芬太尼关税、10%的对等关 ...

英国央行委员泰勒：关税冲击的规模超出了市场预期。 ...

Summary of Aluminum Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the aluminum industry, discussing supply-demand dynamics, pricing, and profit margins for the upcoming years, particularly 2025 and 2026 [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Profit Expectations**: The expected profit center for aluminum in 2025 is slightly lower than in 2024, with a global surplus increasing from 130,000 tons to 620,000 tons due to tariff issues. Costs are projected to remain between 16,000 to 17,000 RMB per ton [2][3][4]. 2. **Domestic Market Dynamics**: The domestic aluminum market's profit margins are influenced by imported aluminum ingots, scrap aluminum profits, and actual demand gaps. Long-term profitability for smelters is expected, but various factors will affect profit levels [2][4][9]. 3. **Manufacturing Sensitivity**: Manufacturing enterprises have become less sensitive to monetary policy changes, focusing more on new orders and actual demand expansion rather than interest rates [2][11]. 4. **Export Impact**: Exports significantly affect the aluminum market, with the Ningbo Port freight index leading aluminum profits by about two months. Tariff impacts have already affected export sectors, including appliances [2][12]. 5. **Macroeconomic Outlook**: A slowdown in lead consumption growth is anticipated, with expectations for certain sectors' revenue growth adjusted down to around 4%. Uncertainties in overseas manufacturing investments are also noted [2][14]. 6. **Automotive Sector Influence**: The automotive industry is expected to drive aluminum consumption growth by approximately 6%, with a seasonal expansion observed [2][15]. 7. **Electric Grid Construction**: Expected growth in electric grid construction is around 6%, contributing to overall aluminum demand [2][16]. 8. **Global Supply-Demand Balance**: The global aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with a projected surplus of 620,000 tons in 2025, compared to 370,000 tons the previous year [2][19]. 9. **Cost and Profit Margins**: Current aluminum costs are around 16,000 to 17,000 RMB, with profits in the electrolytic aluminum segment exceeding 3,000 RMB. However, margins from imported aluminum and scrap are weakening [2][5][25]. 10. **Long-term Supply Constraints**: Long-term supply constraints are expected in the aluminum market, with potential profit increases anticipated by 2026-2027 despite short-term pressures from tariffs [3][41]. Additional Important Insights - **Scrap Aluminum Supply**: The supply of scrap aluminum is under pressure, affecting profit margins for recycling operations [2][25]. - **Trade Environment**: The trade environment is causing some manufacturers to shift orders to Southeast Asia, but local production requirements limit this strategy [2][27]. - **Demand Data Analysis**: Demand data is derived from various sectors, including electric vehicles, traditional vehicles, and renewable energy components, ensuring comprehensive market analysis [2][35]. - **Future Price Dynamics**: The future price of aluminum will depend on the balance between new production capacity and reductions in output, with current market conditions suggesting a cautious outlook [2][34][41]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the aluminum market, highlighting both current conditions and future expectations.

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250511 美国 4 月 CPI 前瞻：开始验收关税冲击幅度 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ◼ 海外政治：美英贸易磋商取得阶段性成果，中美高层接触释放缓和信号。 英国和美国于本周四（5 月 8 日）宣布一项降低部分商品关税的协议。 虽然特朗普此前宣布的对世界各国进口产品征收 10%的关税仍然有效， 并且仍然适用于进入美国的大多数英国商品，但该协议降低或取消了英 国部分出口产品的关税，包括汽车、钢铁和铝。特朗普在社交媒体平台 将此协议定性为"公平、开放、互惠"的贸易安排，并借机宣示其贸易 谈判策略的成效。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特亦同步透露， 另有二十余项贸易协议正处于谈判收尾阶段。需注意的是，美英贸易谈 判的特殊性限制了其外推价值：其一，美国对英贸易长期保持顺差，特 朗普政府核心关切的贸易失衡问题在此次谈判中并非核心议题；其二， 协议内容仅针对特定商品条款展开，而非如英印自贸协定般构建全面经 贸框架。因此，美英谈判进展或难以直接映射美国与其他经济体的谈判 逻辑。在中美关系方面，双方高层于 5 月 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行近 8 小时的实质性磋商，系 ...

等到今年第四季度，大戏才会进入高潮。 一个多月前特朗普宣布对全球贸易伙伴征收大幅关税，放话要平衡美国巨额贸易赤字。一瞬间全球贸易秩序、国际间商品物流和价格体系、世界贸易和投资 的资金循环都被打破。股市出现大幅波动，美元汇率下跌，长期美债下跌。股债汇三杀的局面逆转了过去几十年来，每当风险资产遭到抛售，资金会进入美 元和美元债券进行避险的操作逻辑。许多美国企业在发布一季度财报时拒绝给出业绩指引，因为他们无法预判剧烈动荡中的经营情况。全球投资者认识到美 国经济的例外主义结束了，这条航船正在驶入未知的水域，远处天空布满了不祥的乌云。 美联储5月议息会议决定维持政策利率在4.25%~4.50%不变。这并不出人意料，因为通过央行管理双重目标的狭窄镜框所看到的经济硬数据依然稳定。但是 议息决议中出现了这么一句话："如果大幅关税被继续实施，它可能造成通胀上升、经济增长放缓、失业率提高。" 美联储主席鲍威尔本可以直接说关税将 引发滞胀，但他怕会吓坏大家。这是美联储能对政府喊出的最大声的脏话，对经济发出的黑色风暴预警。 财经记者提问，"3月份预测今年有两次降息，没了吗？" "你今天不着急，下次该降息了吧？" "经济可能衰退，不能 ...

Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs on PPI is significant, while improved consumer demand provides substantial support for core CPI [4][5][47] - International oil prices have declined, and weak demand for steel and coal has led to a drop in commodity prices, negatively affecting PPI [4][10] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated demand for certain goods, leading to a slight increase in core CPI despite the overall decline [5][48] Inflation Data Summary - On May 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released April inflation data: CPI year-on-year at -0.1%, previous value -0.1%, expected -0.2%; PPI year-on-year at -2.7%, previous value -2.5%, expected -2.8% [3][46] - April PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, slightly better than market expectations [10][30] PPI Analysis - The decline in PPI is attributed to falling international oil prices, which have led to a decrease in domestic oil prices, negatively impacting sectors like oil extraction and processing [4][10] - The real estate sector's downturn and seasonal factors have contributed to reduced demand for steel and coal, further dragging down PPI [4][10] - The low capacity utilization in downstream industries, exacerbated by increased tariffs, has also constrained PPI recovery [13][47] CPI Analysis - Core CPI showed a limited decline, primarily due to the "old-for-new" policy, which has stimulated demand and led to price increases in certain consumer goods [5][48] - Food CPI improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to -0.2%, driven by seasonal supply constraints and reduced imports [20][34] - Gold price increases have supported other goods and services prices, contributing positively to overall CPI [22][48] Service Sector Insights - The core service CPI increased by 0.44% month-on-month, slightly better than seasonal trends, driven by a rebound in travel demand [6][25][49] - Significant price increases were observed in travel-related services, such as airfare and vehicle rentals, reflecting improved consumer activity [25][49] Future Outlook - The impact of tariffs on PPI is expected to be greater than on CPI, with potential downward pressure on both indices in the second quarter [7][27] - However, policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand may provide support for inflation recovery [7][27]

Group 1: CPI Inflation - The CPI inflation for April is -0.1% year-on-year, which is in line with the previous value and higher than market expectations of -0.3% [1] - Core CPI inflation remains stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while year-on-year it holds steady at 0.5% [8] - Food prices have turned from decline to increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points to 0.2% [5][6] Group 2: PPI Inflation - The PPI inflation for April is -2.7% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and -0.4% month-on-month, which is weaker than the historical average since 2017 [12] - The decline in PPI inflation is primarily due to tariff impacts, with energy prices being suppressed and some industries facing export obstacles [15] - New momentum industries show resilience, with prices in sectors like computer and electronic equipment manufacturing improving [15] Group 3: Forward Outlook - Looking ahead, the implementation of a package of financial policies on May 7 is expected to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market, potentially leading to a stabilization and gradual recovery of core CPI inflation [11] - The PPI inflation is projected to face downward pressure due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, but the recent financial policies may alleviate some of this pressure [20] - The expected CPI inflation midpoint for Q2 is around 0.2%, while the annual midpoint is projected at 0.4%; for PPI, the Q2 midpoint may drop to around -2.5%, with an annual midpoint of -2.4% [21]

相较百事可乐，可口可乐在面对关税冲击时，稍显"幸运"。与百事的"全球布局"不同，可口可乐多年来 坚持在美国本土及其属地（如波多黎各）设立核心生产和灌装基地。因此，供应美国市场的可口可乐并 没有因为生产线布局问题受到关税影响。 美国一些人制造的"关税风暴"，已经波及美国人手中的可乐瓶。百事可乐受伤尤甚。 20世纪70年代，百事把核心的饮料浓缩液生产线转移到了爱尔兰，其初衷很简单：爱尔兰税收低、政策 宽松，是跨国公司的"避税天堂"。这一决策在长达几十年的时间里，为百事可乐带来了显著的成本优 势：生产成本更低、利润空间更高、全球调配更灵活。"爱尔兰制造"成为百事公司全球扩张战略的重要 基石，也有力支撑起了美国市场的巨大供应份额。 但如今，这一避风港正遭遇"风暴"正面袭击。随着美国政府将一系列海外制造商品纳入征税范围，来自 爱尔兰的百事可乐可能将背上10%的额外关税负担。 市场对关税变化的反应或许会有滞后，但百事在最新的财报中已经对未来的困难进行了预警。在财报 中，百事公司对2025年全年的盈利预期作出重大调整：从"温和增长"降为"持平或微降"。这意味着，在 最佳情况下，百事今年的利润也只是原地踏步；在更坏的情形下， ...

图1：4月进出口表现好于市场预期 4月我国进出口金额同比增速表现好于市场预期，出口增速下滑但仍保持较快增长，进口降幅收窄，贸易顺差 大幅扩张。 按美元计价，进出口总金额5,352亿美元，同比增长4.6%。其中，出口3,156.9亿美元，同比 8.1%（3月12.4%，市场预期0.7%）；进口2,195.1亿美元，同比-0.2%（3月-4.3%，市场预期-6.9%）；贸易顺差 961.8亿美元，同比扩张241.9亿美元（+33.6%）。4月外需下行压力初步显现，重点港口货物和集装箱吞吐量 先下降后回升，出口集装箱运价指数环比下滑4.5%。 分地区看， 相较3月，我国对美国以及非美地区出口增速表现明显分化。4月对美出口增速大幅下降30.1pct 至-21.0%，对非美地区出口增速上行0.1pct至13.0%。非美地区中，对新兴市场如东盟出口增速大幅上行9.2pct 至20.8%，对拉美（17.3%）、非洲（25.3%）出口增速下行但保持较高增速。对欧盟增速下行2.0pct至8.3%， 对日本（7.8%）、 中国台湾地区（15.5%）出口增速提升。随着中美贸易摩擦冲击进一步显现，我国对美和对 非美地区出口表现或继续 ...

Export Data Analysis - In April 2025, China's exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.0% and previous value of 12.4%[3] - Exports to ASEAN rose significantly by 9.2 percentage points to 20.8%, contributing nearly half to total exports[3] - Exports of integrated circuits surged by 12.3% year-on-year to 20.2%, benefiting from tariff exemption policies[4] Import Data Insights - Imports in April 2025 decreased slightly by 0.2%, outperforming the expected decline of 6.0%[3] - Imports from Hong Kong increased by 41.3% year-on-year, highlighting its role as a key import hub[5] - For the first time in seven months, imports from Latin America turned positive, indicating a shift in trade patterns[5] Trade Tensions and Future Outlook - Exports to the U.S. plummeted by 21% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of high tariffs and trade tensions[4] - The global manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction territory, indicating a slowdown in global trade activity[4] - Three scenarios for future export trends were outlined, with a potential decline of 4.3% if current tariffs remain unchanged[7]