SHMET 网讯： 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 新订单指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所改善。 原材料库存指数为48.0%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，低于临界点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅继续收窄。 从业人员指数为47.9%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度小幅回落。 供应商配送时间指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间较上月加快。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数（经季节调整） 单位：% | | | | | | 原材 | | | 商 | 供应 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | PMI | 生产 单 | 新订 料 | | 人员 | 从业 | | | | | | | | | 库存 | | | 时间 | 配送 | | 6月 | 2024年 | 49.5 | 50.6 | 49.5 | 47.6 | | 48.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is adjusting its monetary policy to enhance its effectiveness and responsiveness to the current complex economic environment, indicating a more proactive approach in policy implementation [1][3]. Economic Analysis - The meeting highlighted the increasingly complex and severe external environment, with weakened global economic growth and rising trade barriers. Internally, it emphasized insufficient domestic demand and the new challenge of persistently low prices, providing a more detailed analysis compared to previous meetings [3][4]. Policy Adjustment - The monetary policy committee stressed the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations, reflecting a coordinated approach between monetary policy and economic development goals [4][5]. - Recommendations were made to strengthen the central bank's policy interest rate guidance and improve the market-based interest rate transmission mechanism, with a focus on reducing overall financing costs [4]. Structural Policy Tools - The meeting called for specific measures to deepen financial supply-side structural reforms, urging large banks to enhance their role in supporting the real economy while smaller banks focus on their core responsibilities. This indicates a clear understanding of the differentiated roles of various financial institutions [5]. - Emphasis was placed on effectively implementing various structural monetary policy tools, particularly in supporting technology innovation and boosting consumption. The meeting also highlighted the need to stabilize the capital market through mechanisms like stock repurchase and loan facilitation [5]. - In the real estate sector, the focus shifted from merely stabilizing the market to consolidating its stability, with calls to enhance the vitality of existing properties and land, reflecting a slight adjustment in policy focus [5].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 30 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五 A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.7%，深成指 收涨 0.34%，创业板指收涨 0.47%。沪深两市成交额 15409.36 亿元。 申万行业方面，有色金属、通信、纺织服饰领涨，银行、公用事业、 食品饮料领跌；概念板块方面，铜缆高速连接、金属锌、科创次新股 涨幅居前，跨境支付、可燃冰、数字货币跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生 指数收跌 0.17%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.07%；海外方面，美国三大指 数集体收涨，道指收涨 1%，标普 500 收涨 0.52%，纳指收涨 0.52%。 【重要新闻】 【沪深北港四大交易所相关负责人集中发声，释放多维度改革信号】 6 月 28 日-29 日，2025 上市公司论坛在温州举行。论坛上，沪深北 港四大交易所相关负责人集中发声，释放多维度改革信号。上交所副 总经理王泊表示，将扎实推进"1+6"改革举措和示范案例落实落地； 深交所副总经理李辉称，正紧锣密鼓地谋划 ...

对于下半年，多位专家认为，财政政策将加快存量政策落地，重点在于尽早发行和使用超长期特别国 债、地方政府专项债券。后续视经济运行情况，财政方面的增量储备政策有望适时推出、加码扩内需， 可能的举措包括增发超长期特别国债、设立新型政策性金融工具等。（中证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, focusing on increasing spending intensity and accelerating expenditure progress to boost domestic demand [1] Fiscal Policy Developments - Since the beginning of the year, the fiscal policy has been more aggressive, with increased spending and a focus on areas that benefit people's livelihoods, promote consumption, and enhance economic resilience [1] - Experts predict that the fiscal policy will expedite the implementation of existing policies, particularly through the early issuance and utilization of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds [1] Potential Future Measures - There is a possibility that new incremental reserve policies will be introduced to further stimulate domestic demand, which may include the issuance of additional ultra-long special government bonds and the establishment of new policy financial instruments [1]

证券时报记者 吴琦 今年上半年接近收官，大举布局创新药赛道的汇添富香港优势精选基金业绩领跑，有望拿下公募半程冠军。 今年上半年，创新药、人形机器人、北交所、新消费等热点轮番演绎，不断引爆行情，相关主题基金轮番抢先， 均取得不错的投资回报。 目前，配置创新药板块的基金业绩表现最为突出，霸屏公募基金业绩榜。除此之外，一些北交所主题基金亦跻身 业绩榜前列。值得注意的是，不仅仅是风格较为极致的主题赛道基金业绩表现良好，也有不少全市场选股的主动 权益基金上演业绩翻盘大戏，其中近百只基金在6月份净值创下成立以来新高。不过，人工智能（AI）主题基金成 为半年考的失落者，垫底的基金业绩亏损超20%。 创新药选手基本锁定半程冠军 2025年上半年即将收官，布局创新药赛道的基金业绩强势领跑。 Wind数据显示，截至6月29日，40只基金年内收益率超过50%，汇添富香港优势精选A目前以89.15%的收益领跑， 中信建投北交所精选两年定开A以年内81.59%的收益率，暂列业绩排名第二。 排名紧随其后的基金还有长城医药产业精选A、华夏北交所创新中小企业精选两年定开、中银港股通医药A、永赢 医药创新智选A、华安医药生物A和广发成长领航一 ...

中欧可转债基金经理李波表示，受益于市场整体的贝塔行情，今年以来可转债基金表现亮 眼。从市场驱动逻辑来看，今年股市风格对可转债较为有利，叠加纯债资产收益率走低，使 原来投资"固收+"策略的资金加速向可转债市场迁移。 【导读】 可转债基金业绩亮眼！平均净值增长率为5.6% 中国基金报记者 李树超 受益于股市回暖、结构性行情突出，可转债基金表现不俗，年内平均净值增长率达5.6%，最 高业绩增长超11%。 多位绩优可转债基金经理表示，下半年将继续关注股市结构性变化，围绕科技、红利、周期 类品种等灵活开展可转债投资。 平均净值增长率为5.6% 股市回暖，可转债基金表现抢眼。Wind数据显示，截至6月27日，全市场62只（只统计主代 码）可转债基金今年以来平均净值增长率为5.6%，明显优于去年3.36%的业绩水平。 其中，中欧可转债、华宝可转债、博时转债增强今年以来净值增长率均超过11%，宝盈融源 可转债、东方可转债等多只产品收益率超10%，斩获不错的投资回报。 高晖表示，当前，在中美贸易战趋缓、全球流动性有望再度放松、宏观经济触底的大背景 下，建议保持对转债市场的参与度，以"科技+红利+内需"的思路进行哑铃型配置。 具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with significant sector differentiation and a focus on internal demand and domestic policy catalysts [3][4][5][7][8]. Market Performance - A-shares closed higher this week, with major indices like the ChiNext and CSI 500 showing strong gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index lagged behind [3]. - The market exhibited an "N-shaped" trend in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.2% from the beginning of the year to June 27 [4]. - Sector performance varied significantly, with non-ferrous metals and banking sectors leading with gains of 18.0% and 13.5%, respectively, while coal and real estate sectors faced declines of 12.6% and 7.4% [5]. Fund Flows - The A-share market saw active trading in the first half of the year, with an average daily turnover exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [6]. - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of 1.6 billion yuan, while the issuance of equity funds rebounded significantly, surpassing 250 billion units [6]. Future Outlook - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with external risks potentially easing but still requiring vigilance regarding U.S. policies [7]. - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Domestic consumption, driven by policy support for expanding domestic demand 2. Domestic substitution, focusing on performance certainty and thematic investments 3. Sectors currently underweight by funds, which may see long-term interest due to regulatory changes [8].

2025 年 6 月 28 日 策略研究 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 ——策略周专题（2025 年 6 月第 4 期） 要点 本周 A 股收涨 本周 A 股收涨。本周 A 股主要宽基指数均收涨，创业板指、中证 500 等指数涨幅 靠前，上证 50、上证指数涨幅靠后。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数均收涨， 小盘成长、中盘成长涨幅居前，而大盘价值、大盘成长涨幅靠后。分行业来看，申 万一级行业大多收涨，计算机、国防军工等行业涨幅靠前，石油石化、食品饮料等 行业跌幅靠前。 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 市场上半年呈"N 型"走势，上证指数小幅收涨。从上半年的市场表现来看，受海 内外多重因素交织影响，A 股上半年走势较为震荡，年初至 6 月 27 日，上证指数 上涨 2.2%。分阶段来看，市场上半年的走势可以分为"震荡上行——震荡调整— —震荡上行"三个阶段，整体呈"N 型"走势。年初至 3 月中旬，AI 产业加速发展 与政策暖风共振，A 股市场震荡上行；3 月下旬至 4 月上旬，受特朗普"对等关税" 影响，A 股市场震荡调整；4 月中旬至年中，国内政策积极发力，叠加中美贸易摩 擦阶段性缓和，市场震 ...

自5月20日起，"十五五"规划编制工作开展网络征求意见活动。今年"十五五"规划相关工作节点比以往 开始得还要早，充分显示出党中央对五年规划的重视。 当前制定"十五五"规划的内外部大环境相较于"十四五"期间发生了明显变化。 从国内环境看，相比于"十四五"规划，党的二十大报告根据形势的变化和认识的深化，在2035年远景目 标的阐述上作出一定调整，进一步明确了基本实现现代化的方向指引，这也将为"十五五"规划的编制锚 定目标方向。此外，当下国内经济面临的稳增长压力比五年前更复杂，一些中长期的困难和挑战已经浮 现，比如人口问题、外部的输入性风险等。 《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》(以下简称《决定》)共提出300多项 重要改革举措，目前正在陆续出台实施，"十五五"规划也会将与之相关的改革举措纳入其中。特别是 《决定》对"完善市场经济基础制度"作出的部署安排非常重要，涵盖产权保护、市场准入、公平竞争、 社会信用体系等四个基础性制度。这关乎我国市场经济的竞争力和社会信心，近期有关的法律规定已陆 续出台，"十五五"期间各地各有关部门要将这些基础性制度真正贯彻落实，才能为经济发展带来积极效 应。从下一 ...