当地时间2月9日，福克斯商业频道播出的专访片段里，美国总统特朗普罕见放下身段，当众承认自己首 个总统任期内，在美联储主席人选上犯了无法挽回的大错。同一时间，俄罗斯卫星通讯社援引美国财长 贝森特的表态，美方高级官员已在2月初秘密飞抵北京，为后续中美贸易高层会晤铺路，贝森特本人更 是多次放低姿态，直言不希望与中国脱钩。 这一连串反常举动，根源只有一个——中方持续减持美债的动作，已经打在了美国的七寸上，而中国监 管层释放的信号更明确，后续还将加速抛售节奏，这让一向嚣张的特朗普政府彻底慌了神。美国财政部 发布的国际资本流动报告（TIC）显示，中国对美债的持仓规模已降至6887亿美元，创下2008年以来的 新低，而且这不是短期操作，而是连续多月减持的结果，算下来从2013年1.3万亿美元的持仓峰值至 今，中国已经累计减持了近一半的美债仓位。 最具讽刺意味的是，就在中国持续抛售美债的同时，日本、英国却在同期增持，去年10月日本增持107 亿美元，英国增持132亿美元，反观中国，单月就减持118亿美元，直接让美债持仓跌破7000亿美元的心 理关口。这种鲜明对比背后，是中国对美元资产风险的清醒认知，更是对美国单边主义政策的强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment is complex and volatile, with expectations of changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, leading to increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics and Trends - The core characteristics of the current market include significant price volatility for certain commodities and a notable premium for safe assets, with continued sector differentiation [2] - The pricing mechanism in the commodity market is undergoing fundamental changes, with a shift from global economic recovery to asset allocation driven by geopolitical conflicts [3] - The demand for strategic metals is being re-evaluated due to the weakening of the dollar's credit, the AI revolution increasing demand for new materials, and countries competing for strategic resources [3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, with a forecasted range of 6.8 to 7 against the USD for 2026 [4] - The core support for RMB appreciation comes from a changing global asset allocation logic and a significant trade surplus, which exceeded 1 trillion USD in 2025 [4] - Potential negative factors for the RMB exchange rate include the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and domestic export performance [4] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategies - The pricing power of commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macro narratives, focusing on de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [5] - Both industry clients and ordinary traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment in 2026 is characterized by increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and changes in monetary policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Characteristics - The primary feature of the current market is the significant price increase in commodities driven by massive liquidity released by various countries from 2021 to 2025, with the U.S. playing a key role through interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [3]. - Since the second half of 2025, geopolitical issues have dominated commodity market trends, leading to a persistent rise in prices for precious and base metals due to countries competing for strategic resources [3][5]. Price Dynamics and Trends - In 2026, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of significant price volatility and a notable premium on safe assets, with a clear division in sector performance [4][5]. - The core drivers of the commodity market in 2026 include the weakening of the dollar's credit, the demand surge for strategic metals due to the AI revolution, and the geopolitical risks prompting countries to secure strategic resources [5]. Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, expected to trade between 6.8 and 7 against the dollar throughout 2026 [6]. - Key supporting factors for the yuan's appreciation include a structural trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 and a shift in global asset allocation favoring Chinese assets [6]. Asset Rotation Insights - The pricing mechanism for commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macroeconomic narratives, emphasizing the importance of de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [7]. - Both industry clients and individual traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a confluence of monetary cycles, central bank actions, safe-haven demand, and supply-demand dynamics, indicating a robust long-term bullish trend in precious metals [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 20, gold prices reached $5050 per ounce, marking a 2.4% increase during the holiday period, while silver prices rose to $84.35 per ounce, with an 8.19% increase, significantly outperforming gold [1]. - Domestic gold prices also saw a rise, with T+D gold closing at 1108.5 yuan per gram and retail prices surpassing 1550 yuan per gram, reflecting increased physical and investment demand [1]. Group 2: Underlying Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has anchored price levels, with market predictions suggesting a reduction of 50 to 75 basis points by 2026, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2]. - Central bank gold purchases are providing a rigid support, with 95% of global central banks planning to increase their gold reserves, maintaining an average monthly purchase of 60 to 70 tons [2]. - Geopolitical tensions and rising credit risks are driving safe-haven demand, as the U.S. debt exceeds $38 trillion, weakening dollar credit and prompting investments in gold to hedge against uncertainties [2]. - Supply constraints are tightening, with global gold mine production growth below 2% and rising extraction costs, while investment, industrial, and reserve demand continue to expand, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bullish trend for gold and silver is expected to persist, although short-term volatility may increase, with institutions like Goldman Sachs projecting gold prices to reach $5400 per ounce, and JPMorgan and UBS raising targets to $6200 to $6500 per ounce [3]. - The A-share market is likely to experience a clear transmission effect from the strong performance of gold and silver, benefiting gold mining companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Hunan Gold, which are expected to see significant earnings elasticity [3]. - The precious metals sector is anticipated to serve as a defensive asset in the face of increased market volatility, providing a hedge against fluctuations in growth and cyclical stocks [3].

一、国内零售与回收价格动态 国内黄金零售市场普遍下调，品牌足金价区间1494—1536元/克，多数较昨日跌5—30元：中国黄金1536元/克，老庙1516元/克，老凤祥1510元/克，周生生 1500元/克，菜百1505元/克。 周大福、金至尊等1499元/克，六福、潮宏基、谢瑞麟、周大生、金大福均跌30元至1492—1497元/克，周六福1494元/克。 深圳水贝足金999—999.99报价1266—1268元/克，含加工费，显著低于品牌店。 银行金条参考上海黄金交易所AU99.99价加计12—18元手续费，农行"传世之宝"1144.92元/克最高，中行"吉祥金"1133.82元/克，建行1109.80元/克，工行"如 意金"1105.14元/克最低。 黄金回收价呈回落态势：2月19日1050元/克（99.9%—99.999%），17—16日1060元/克，15—14日1067元/克，13日回落至1060元/克，12—11日回升至1090 元/克，10日1083元/克，9日1080元/克，显示周内市场评估持续调整。 2026年2月19日，国内黄金零售价普遍回落，品牌金饰多在1494—1536元/克，水贝报价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reduction of China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and the broader implications for global financial stability and the shift towards de-dollarization, highlighting the impact of U.S. fiscal policies and geopolitical tensions on international finance [2][5][17]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and China's Holdings - As of November 2025, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have decreased to $682.6 billion, nearly half of the peak of $1.32 trillion in 2013 [2][5]. - From March 2025, China has been gradually reducing its U.S. Treasury bond holdings by tens of billions of dollars each month, with a further decline to approximately $683 billion by January 2026 [5][11]. - This gradual reduction strategy aims to avoid market volatility, contrasting with the emergency sell-off during the 2008 financial crisis [5][17]. Group 2: U.S. Fiscal Policies and Economic Impact - The U.S. federal debt has risen to $38.72 trillion, with interest payments expected to exceed $1 trillion in the 2026 fiscal year, limiting investment in defense and infrastructure [2][7]. - The trade deficit has expanded from $800 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion in 2025, despite tax cuts and tariffs intended to boost manufacturing and reduce the trade gap [4][11]. - High inflation rates above 4% have compelled the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise from 2% in 2024 to 4.5% by February 2026, effectively doubling financing costs [5][11]. Group 3: Global Financial Shifts and De-dollarization - Countries like India and Saudi Arabia are also reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings, contributing to a shift of funds towards euros and gold, reflecting a move away from dollar dependence [2][5]. - The use of the Chinese yuan in cross-border trade has increased, with its share rising to 20% by January 2026, up 10% from 2024, indicating a trend towards the internationalization of the yuan [7][11]. - The BRICS nations have seen the proportion of trade conducted in yuan increase from 40% in 2025 to 50% in early 2026, further promoting a multi-polar international financial landscape [11][17]. Group 4: China's Financial Strategy and Resilience - China has increased its gold reserves to 74.19 million ounces (approximately 2308 tons) by January 2026, enhancing its financial resilience against currency fluctuations [5][11]. - The diversification of China's foreign exchange reserves aims to mitigate risks associated with U.S. policies, moving away from a reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds [15][17]. - The ongoing reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings is viewed as a means for China to assert its financial sovereignty and avoid bearing the costs of U.S. policy failures [17].

2026年2月，国际黄金市场炸开了一个历史性的数字：5000美元。 每盎司黄金的价格，第一次站上了这 个曾经遥不可及的心理关口。 就在2月18日晚上，伦敦现货黄金价格日内涨幅超过2.5%，强势冲上5000 美元。 这个数字像一颗投入湖面的巨石，瞬间在国内市场激起了滔天巨浪。 人们一边看着屏幕上疯狂 跳动的金价曲线感到心跳加速，一边涌向全国各地的金店和银行，上演了一场"越涨越买"的集体狂欢。 国际金价的这轮冲锋并非一帆风顺。 整个2026年1月，黄金市场就像坐上了一台失控的过山车。 1月下 旬，金价曾一路狂飙，在1月29日冲上了5598.75美元的历史最高点。 然而仅仅一天之后，市场风云突 变，金价单日暴跌超过9%，一度逼近4400美元。 这种单日近20%的振幅，让无数投资者惊出一身冷 汗。 进入2月，金价围绕5000美元关口展开了激烈的拉锯战，日内波动两三百美元成了家常便饭。 2月 13日，现货黄金价格报5042.205美元，重新回到了5000美元上方。 到了2月19日，伦敦金现货价格依然 坚守在5014.62美元的高位。 这种史诗级的波动，让2026年的开年贵金属市场充满了戏剧性。 国际市场的风浪，几乎同步 ...

2026年2月19日下午四点左右，伦敦金现货价格突然跳涨，最高触及5021.25美元一盎司，最终收在5014.62美元。 这个数 字意味着黄金价格首次突破了每盎司5000美元的心理大关。 几乎在同一时间，国内周大福、老凤祥等金店的零售价也涨 到了1560元人民币一克左右。 金价暴涨的消息通过快讯弹窗，瞬间传遍了全球投资者的手机屏幕。 导致金价飙升的第一个直接原因，是中东地区骤然升级的军事对峙。 2026年2月16日，美国空军18架F-35A隐形战斗机从 英国基地起飞，前往中东地区部署。 这是近几个月来规模最大的一次F-35战机调动。 卫星图像显示，美国"亚伯拉罕·林 肯"号航母已经出现在阿曼海岸附近，与"杰拉尔德·R·福特"号航母形成了双航母战斗群的威慑态势。 作为回应，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军在2月16日至17日，于霍尔木兹海峡举行了名为"智能管控"的军事演习。 演习期间， 伊朗部分封锁了海峡的关键航道，并进行了反舰导弹实弹射击。 2月18日，伊朗政府发言人正式宣布，该国国防部队已进 入全面战备状态。 有美国媒体援引白宫知情人士消息称，美军方已完成作战准备，最早可能于2月21日对伊朗发动军事打 击。 除了中东 ...

根据美国财政部最新披露的数据，中国持有的美债规模已降至6800多亿美元，较2013年峰值时的1.3万亿美元几乎腰斩。不同于市场恐慌性抛售，中国的减 持显得从容有序，大多采用"到期不续"的温和方式，每月以百亿美元左右的规模稳步缩减持仓，既避免了冲击全球金融市场，也实现了自身资产的理性调 整。 贝森特的罕见喊话，本质上是美国债务压力与经济困境的真实写照。如今美国国债总额已突破38万亿美元，每年支付的利息就超过1万亿美元，远超军费开 支，迫切需要外部资金支撑。中国作为曾经的美债主要持有国，其持续减持的动作，不仅减少了美债的外部需求，更动摇了全球投资者对美债的信心，推高 了美国的融资成本。 美方的表态充满矛盾，一边喊着"不脱钩"，希望稳住中国的持仓与双边经贸合作，一边又在高科技、关键矿产等领域设置壁垒，试图遏制中国发展。这种既 要享受合作红利、又要防范遏制中国的逻辑，显然难以持续。 中国抛售美债、加持黄金，从来不是为了"打压美元"，而是基于自身金融安全的理性选择，是推进外汇储备多元化的必然举措。在全球"去美元化"浪潮下， 越来越多国家开始调整资产结构，增持黄金、减持美债。中国的操作，既是顺应趋势，也是为自身经济发展筑 ...

转自：中国宁波网 "没想到还在1500元之上啊。"马年正月初一晚上，杭州徐女士和朋友在奥体印象城一家金店选购手镯，当天金饰价格是1529元/克，徐女士感叹这个价格距 离1月底每克1600多元也不明显。倒是店员比较淡定地跟她说：买金饰不是投资，最主要是买个喜欢，其实最近金价涨跌，想要买的顾客还是照旧来买。最 终，在克减活动之后，徐女士花了近2万元买了一个金葫芦挂坠。 （来源：中国宁波网） 吴恩慧 摄 吴恩慧 摄 2026年开局才两个多月，国际贵金属市场上演激烈的"过山车"行情。现货黄金在延续前两年涨势的基础上，1月29日一度飙升至每盎司近5600美元的历史巅 峰，但仅仅两个交易日后，2月2日便跌破4500美元/盎司，短短三个交易日震荡幅度超过了20%；而最近几天，仍在5000美元/盎司关口来回拉锯。现货白银 表现则更为激烈，在1月29日创出121.647美元/盎司新高后，第二天猛跌26%，目前，现货白银交投在80美元/盎司之下。 国际贵金属价格的剧烈波动，也影响着投资贵金属的普通人，一时间，随着收益回撤，不少人感叹"黄金不再是避险资产""白银泡沫太大"，更多投资者关 心：经历了过山车之后，接下去贵金属行情到底会 ...