1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Precious metals have slightly rebounded. The statement from US President Trump that the war between the US and Iran may end soon led to a significant drop in oil prices, a cooling of inflation expectations, and a recovery in risk appetite, alleviating short - term suppression factors for precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. Concerns about the US fiscal sustainability are intensifying, and with the reconstruction of the global political and economic order, the diversification of central bank reserve assets, and the continuous progress of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium, with their industrial and financial attributes in resonance, follow the overall sector trend but have relatively larger fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For Shanghai Gold 2606, the previous day's closing price was 1143.54, yesterday's closing price was 1153.16, with a rise of 9.62 and a rise rate of 0.84%. For Shanghai Gold 2604, the previous day's closing price was 1140.00, yesterday's closing price was 1150.00, with a rise of 10.00 and a rise rate of 0.88%. For Shanghai Silver 2606, the previous day's closing price was 21547, yesterday's closing price was 22758, with a rise of 1211 and a rise rate of 5.62%. For Shanghai Silver 2604, the previous day's closing price was 21745, yesterday's closing price was 22912, with a rise of 1167 and a rise rate of 5.37% [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2606 was 123330, and the trading volume was 89822. The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2604 was 111758, and the trading volume was 203619. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2606 was 200036, and the trading volume was 471040. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2604 was 104781, and the trading volume was 154464 [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Gold 2606 was - 8.14, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 was - 4.98. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Silver 2606 was - 468, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 622 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1139.96, yesterday's closing price was 1145.02, with a rise of 5.06 and a rise rate of 0.44%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold was 5139.57, yesterday's closing price was 5190.10, with a rise of 50.53 and a rise rate of 0.98%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 21290, yesterday's closing price was 22290, with a rise of 1000 and a rise rate of 4.70%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver was 86.98, yesterday's closing price was 88.34, with a rise of 1.36 and a rise rate of 1.57% [2] - **Price Differences**: The difference between Shanghai Gold 2606 and Shanghai Gold 2604 was 3.16 (previous value: 3.54). The difference between Shanghai Silver 2606 and Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 154.00 (previous value: - 198.00). The gold - to - silver ratio (spot) was 51.37 (previous value: 53.54). The ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold was 1.00 (previous value: 0.99). The ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver was 1.14 (previous value: 1.13) [2] 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 104,934 kg. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 5808 kg to 259,178 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 192906 ounces to 32,720,709 ounces. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 977529 ounces to 345,310,443 ounces [2] 3.4 Related Derivatives - **Positions and Changes**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 3 tons to 1,074 tons. The position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 15,655 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold increased by 968 to 160,145. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 1078 to 23,338 [2] 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **IEA Proposal**: The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed to release its largest - ever oil reserve to lower the soaring oil prices due to the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. The proposed release amount would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil released by IEA member countries in two installments during the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The proposal was discussed at an emergency meeting of energy officials from 32 IEA member countries on Tuesday, and a decision is expected on Wednesday [3] - **ECB Statement**: European Central Bank President Lagarde said that due to high uncertainty, she could not state how interest rates would be adjusted [3] - **Trump's Statements**: US President Trump demanded that Iran immediately remove any mines in the Strait of Hormuz and warned of military consequences if not. He also said that the war with Iran might end soon. The Trump administration asked Israel to stop further airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure, to avoid pushing up global oil prices and triggering large - scale retaliation from Iran [3] - **Navy Escort Issue**: There were inconsistent statements about US Navy escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Secretary Wright first announced and then deleted a message about a successful escort. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said that any US fleet action would be blocked [3]

2026年03月11日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 562.55 | 562.40 | 555.90 | 423.55 | 421.55 | 419.00 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 549.35 | 546.00 | 541.85 | 412.70 | 412.65 | 409.40 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 23.00 | 27.30 | 22.55 | 16.35 | 12.20 | 12.75 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | 4.26% | 5.10% | 4.23% | 4.02% | 2.98% | 3.14% | | | 持仓量 | ...

Fixed Income Research - The overall yield of credit bonds has declined, with credit spreads showing differentiation across various types, particularly widening in the short to medium term while narrowing in the long term [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds has significantly increased due to a low base effect, while corporate bonds have seen zero issuance; net financing for credit bonds has increased, with corporate bonds showing negative net financing [2] - The secondary market has experienced a rise in transaction volume, with all types of credit bonds seeing increased trading activity [2] - Despite fluctuations, the overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and a long-term downward trend in yields is expected, suggesting a strategy of increasing allocations during adjustments [2] Real Estate Industry - Continuous optimization of real estate policies by central and local governments is positively impacting the stabilization of the real estate market, transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on quality improvement [3] - The recovery in sales will significantly influence bond valuations, and investors with higher risk tolerance may consider early positioning in companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [3] - The focus for investment should remain on historically stable valuations of high-performing state-owned enterprises and quality private enterprises with strong guarantees, while also considering opportunities in undervalued real estate bonds [3] Metal Industry - The supply of aluminum is expected to tighten due to export disruptions in the Middle East, which may support aluminum prices in the short term [6] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the conflict involving Iran, is influencing various metal prices, with copper prices facing downward pressure due to rising oil prices and a strong dollar [6] - The upcoming disclosure of corporate earnings in March may lead to a verification phase for industry fundamentals, with a focus on sectors supported by geopolitical factors and demand for strategic resources [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, factors such as geopolitical games, oil price fluctuations, and inflation risks will continue to impact the precious metals market. However, as the precious metals market has partially digested the negative impact of "rising inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations", once the oil price rally slows down, precious metals are expected to return to their own logic and prices may gradually rise in a volatile manner. In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still recommend buying on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 9, 2026, London gold spot was $5096.61/ounce, London silver spot was $83.54/ounce, COMEX gold was $5104.30/ounce, and COMEX silver was $83.63/ounce. Compared with March 6, 2026, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 0.4% and silver down about 1.0% - 1.2%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed certain changes, with AU2604 at 1140 yuan/gram and AG2604 at 21745 yuan/kilogram [3] - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.4 yuan/gram on March 9, 2026, with a 14.3% increase compared with March 6. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 52.43, with a - 0.1% change [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 6, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1073.32 tons, a - 0.24% change compared with March 5. The silver ETF - SLV was 15761.62327 tons, a - 0.30% change. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different degrees of change [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 9, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 104934.00 kilograms, a - 0.09% change compared with March 6. The SHFE silver inventory was 253370.00 kilograms, a - 1.01% change. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased [3] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 9, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92, a 0.19% increase compared with March 6. The US dollar index was 98.96 on March 6, a - 0.09% change compared with March 5. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had different degrees of change [3] 5. Market Review - On March 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.08% to 1140 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.7% to 21547 yuan/kilogram [3] 6. Impact Analysis - Geopolitical factors: The election of Khamenei's son as the Supreme Leader of Iran makes the US - Iran conflict difficult to ease in the short term. The production cuts announced by some Middle - Eastern countries over the weekend led to a sharp increase in US crude oil prices, increasing inflation risks and suppressing precious metals prices. Later, the news of the G67 group's possible coordinated release of oil reserves narrowed the increase in oil prices, and the decline in precious metals prices also slowed down [4] - Other factors: The unexpected weakness of the US February non - farm payrolls increases the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy, the risk of the US private credit crisis is initially revealed, the US - Iran situation remains tense, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 16th consecutive month, which provides support for precious metals prices. For silver, geopolitical and stagflation risks may suppress its industrial attributes, but the continuous decline in inventory provides support for silver prices [4] 7. Future Market Analysis - Short - term: Geopolitical games, oil price fluctuations, and inflation risks will continue to impact the precious metals market. Once oil price increases slow down, precious metals may return to their own logic and prices may rise [5] - Long - term: The underlying logic of the precious metals bull market is solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents will continue, and precious metals prices have room to rise. Long - term strategies recommend buying on dips [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions are likely to support aluminum prices due to expected supply tightening, while the gold market faces increased volatility due to rising oil prices and geopolitical developments [3][6][49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly its impact on market sentiment and commodity prices [7][19]. Industry Summary Steel - Supply and demand have shown some recovery post-holiday, but demand is recovering slower than supply, leading to increased inventory levels. As of March 6, total steel inventory was 19.27 million tons, up 5.54% from the previous period [20][26]. - The production of five major steel products was 7.97 million tons, a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous week, but down 4.44% year-on-year [21][26]. Copper - Copper inventories continue to accumulate, with geopolitical tensions affecting market demand. As of March 6, LME copper prices were $12,800 per ton, down 4.70% from the previous period [44][42]. - The report notes that the ongoing conflict is expected to keep pressure on copper prices due to rising oil prices and a stronger dollar [9][41]. Aluminum - The report indicates that the Middle East's electrolytic aluminum exports are hindered, leading to a tightening supply situation that may support aluminum prices. As of March 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,400 per ton, up 7.21% from the previous period [47][49]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to face challenges due to policy constraints [10][49]. Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold prices, which have been under pressure due to inflation concerns and a stronger dollar. As of March 6, gold prices were $5,181.30 per ounce, down 2.17% from the previous period [53][54]. - The report suggests that investors should closely monitor developments in the Iranian conflict as it may influence market dynamics [53][54]. Lithium and New Energy Metals - The report notes that lithium prices are under pressure due to concerns over energy storage demand amid geopolitical tensions. As of March 6, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were 157,000 yuan per ton, down 8.99% from the previous period [59][58]. - The report highlights the potential for price weakness in lithium due to rising oil prices and market uncertainties [58][59]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The report indicates that rare earth prices have declined due to poor demand data from the electric vehicle sector and geopolitical tensions. As of March 6, light rare earth oxide prices were 850,000 yuan per ton, down 4.49% from the previous period [65][66]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor geopolitical developments and downstream demand data for potential impacts on rare earth prices [65][66].

宏 观 消 息 2.美国总统特朗普在佛罗里达州迈阿密市举行的一场新闻发布会上表示，美国对伊朗的军事行动会 "很快"结束。特朗普还称，早知油气会上涨，且油价涨幅低于他的预期（隔夜原油价格大幅回落）； 对伊朗新领袖人选感到"失望"；如果伊朗破坏石油供应，会更狠地打击他们，将解除部分制裁来 降低油价。值得一提的是，特朗普在伊朗女子学校遇袭一事上宣称伊朗也有战斧导弹。美洲局势方 面，特朗普在发布会上再次对古巴发出了威胁，并宣称将再从委内瑞拉运走 1 亿桶石油。 3.据 CNN 报道，一位了解伊朗领导层战略的伊朗消息人士透露，伊朗正在制定计划，将在波斯湾对 属于与美国结盟国家的油轮和商船实施"安全税费"。该消息人士坚称，霍尔木兹海峡"处于关闭 状态"，即便美国总统特朗普声称其处于开放状态。该消息人士称："我们掌控着全球油价的'扳 机'，很长一段时间内，美国都将不得不等待我们的行动来调控油价。能源价格已变得不稳定，我 们将继续斗争，直到特朗普承认失败。" 4.据伊朗国家媒体：伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队表示，如果美以继续发动袭击，德黑兰将不会允许该地区 "任何一升石油"出口。 评 论 及 策 略 贵金属震荡回升。美国总统特朗普表示 ...

报告日期：2026 年 3 月 10 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：地缘降温，动荡仍存 当前市场多空因素激烈交织。地缘冲突溢价有所回吐，但结构性风险犹存。美伊 局势仍是短期核心，美方传递"行动接近结束"及"解除部分制裁"的信号缓和 紧张情绪，隔夜油价显著回落。然而，冲突对关键航道的潜在威胁持续支撑航运 成本，欧洲航线运价上涨印证供应链担忧。与此同时，全球监管机构正积极干预 以抑制投机、防范风险，国内外交易所密集出台上调手续费、调整开仓限制等措 施，旨在为过热市场降温。国内成品油价大幅上调则传导了成本压力。其他板块， 黑色系原料端到港增加但发运下滑，呈现分化；南美大豆收割延迟与天气影响提 供农产品支撑。整体而言，地缘政治风险与强力监管引导形成博弈，市场或步入 高波动与政策市并存的复杂阶段。 重点品种：原油、黄金、甲醇 原油：夜盘油价大幅回落。特朗普表示，我认为伊朗战争已经非常彻底，几乎结 束了。美国总统特朗普表示，我们还将豁免伊朗某些与石油相关的制裁措施，在 事情明朗化之前，我会取消一些制裁。如有必要，美国海军将在时机成熟时护送 油轮通过海峡。IEA 联合释放战略石油储备展开讨论。据报道，包括美国在内的 三 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as the Iran situation, and different commodities have different trends and risks [6][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 1.11%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.21%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.14%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.04%. The central bank conducted 48.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 86.5 billion yuan on the day. In February, CPI rose 1% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and decreased 0.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that there will still be some pressure, so caution is advised [6][7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 1.09%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.97%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.75%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.28% [8]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and there are policy expectations. However, the Iran situation has high uncertainty, and it is expected that market volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended to close long positions and wait for opportunities [10][11]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,140 with a decline of 0.07%, and the silver main contract closed at 21,547 with an increase of 0.07% [12]. - **Outlook**: The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [12][13]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3,120 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,240 - 3,260 yuan/ton [14]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is determined by industry supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. It is expected that the price will lack positive drivers but has low valuation. Technically, the futures are expected to continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [15][16]. 3.5 Iron Ore - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The port spot price of PB powder was 770 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 660 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. During the key meetings, steel mills' production restrictions have suppressed the demand for iron ore. The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the port inventory is at a high level. Technically, the futures are expected to continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [17][18]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly [19]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand is under pressure due to steel mills' production restrictions. Technically, the futures are still in a volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [20][21]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract rose 0.43% to 6,132 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract rose 0.51% to 5,868 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese silicon spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 5,950 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon iron price rose 270 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [22]. - **Outlook**: The cost is at a low level with limited downward space, and the supply is in a state of overall surplus. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider exiting long positions on rallies [22]. 3.8 Crude Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil hit the daily limit due to market expectations of war escalation [23]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions in CFTC shows that US funds are bullish on the crude oil market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts by Middle East oil companies, which supports oil prices. However, Trump's statement that the war with Iran is basically over has eased the tension. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. 3.9 Polyolefins - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market reported a rapid price increase, and the Yuyao LLDPE market rose 1,950 - 2,450 yuan/ton [27]. - **Outlook**: The downstream factories of polyolefins are resuming production, and the demand for replenishment has increased, which supports the price increase. The geopolitical conflict has strengthened the cost support. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [28][29]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 8.97%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted to 15,000 - 15,200 yuan/ton [30]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up the price of crude oil, which has increased the cost of synthetic rubber. Some device overhauls are expected in March. Although the inventory is accumulating, the price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [30][31]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 1.44%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 1.38%. The Shanghai spot price of whole latex was adjusted to around 16,900 yuan/ton [32]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up the price of synthetic rubber, increasing the substitution demand for natural rubber. The supply is in a low - production season, and the demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [32][33]. 3.12 PVC - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 5.99% and hit the daily limit, and the East China spot price was raised by 400 yuan/ton [34]. - **Outlook**: The overseas geopolitical conflict has led to concerns about energy and raw material supply, which is in a game with the seasonal off - season of domestic spring demand. The inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [34][36]. 3.13 Urea - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 4.33%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was 1,920 yuan/ton (+30) [37]. - **Outlook**: The geopolitical conflict and international supply - demand mismatch have led to a global production gap in urea. China has strict export quota control. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. In the short term, it is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, export and production capacity expansion need to be concerned. In the long term, the pattern is expected to be loose [37][38]. 3.14 PX - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose 7.02% [39]. - **Outlook**: The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed. The PX load is slightly increased, and the downstream polyester and terminal industries are gradually resuming work. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage. Due to the easing of the US - Iran conflict, the oil price may decline, and the PX price may follow and fluctuate. It is recommended to operate cautiously [39][40]. 3.15 PTA - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 7.01%, and the processing fee rose to around 300 yuan/ton [41]. - **Outlook**: The PTA supply is adjusted, the demand is gradually recovering, and the cost support is slightly weakened due to the easing of the geopolitical situation. The price may follow the PX and oil prices and decline slightly. It is recommended to operate cautiously [41]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 7.99% [42]. - **Outlook**: The geopolitical situation may ease, the cost support may weaken, and the high inventory may suppress the short - term price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring overhaul rhythm [42][43]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract rose 7.02% [44]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, the terminal factory inventory is basically stable, and the loom load is slightly increasing. The price is mainly driven by the cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [44]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose 7.02%, and the processing fee was adjusted to around 520 yuan/ton [45]. - **Outlook**: The bottle chips supply is expected to shrink, the export is increasing, and the spot is still tight in the short term. The price is mainly driven by the cost. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of overhauled devices and cost changes [45]. 3.19 Soda Ash - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,276 yuan/ton during the day session with a 3.66% increase and 1,265 yuan/ton during the night session with a 2.17% decrease [46]. - **Outlook**: The soda ash production is stable, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by the energy price. The market sentiment is volatile, and it is necessary to control risks [47][48]. 3.20 Glass - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,104 yuan/ton during the day session with a 3.18% increase and 1,095 yuan/ton during the night session with a 2.75% decrease [49]. - **Outlook**: The glass production capacity is in the process of active de - stocking, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The price is under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle East situation and fundamental indicators [50][51]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 2,442 yuan/ton during the day session with a 5.30% increase and 2,355 yuan/ton during the night session with a 4.31% decrease [52]. - **Outlook**: The caustic soda supply is at a high level, and the inventory is increasing. The downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. The price is affected by the oil price. The market has a strong export expectation but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to control positions [52][53]. 3.22 Pulp - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,300 yuan/ton with a 0.45% increase [54]. - **Outlook**: The pulp inventory is not showing a de - stocking trend, the supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of coniferous pulp fluctuates with the futures, and the price of broad - leaf pulp is supported by cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and bulk commodities, downstream paper mill procurement, and capital movements [54][55]. 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 2.94% to 161,060 yuan/ton [56]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the demand is improving. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [56]. 3.24 Copper - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,160 yuan/ton with a 1.28% increase [57]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the domestic electrolytic copper supply is limited. The demand is seasonally warming, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The copper price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [57][58]. 3.25 Aluminum - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,850 yuan/ton with a 1.43% decrease, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,859 yuan/ton with a 2.72% decrease [59]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market has a surplus supply, and the cost is supported by the geopolitical conflict. The domestic aluminum inventory is under pressure, and the demand has not fully recovered. The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong - side operation [59][60]. 3.26 Zinc - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,425 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase [61]. - **Outlook**: The zinc supply is increasing, and the demand recovery is weak. The inventory is accumulating. The zinc price may be under pressure and oscillate [61][62][63]. 3.27 Lead - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,720 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease [64]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand mismatch is conducive to the de - stocking of primary lead, but the downstream rigid demand is limited. The lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [64][65]. 3.28 Tin - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 3.51% to 397,630 yuan/ton [66]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The supply of tin is gradually easing, and the demand has short - term support. The inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support, but it is necessary to control risks due to the uncertainty of the overseas situation [66]. 3.29 Nickel - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose 1.37% to 137,930 yuan/ton [67]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the production cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67][68]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 3.53% to 2,995 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 3.16% to 8,672 yuan/ton.

评 论 及 策 略 铂钯维持看多基调，长期核心逻辑未改，但短期受技术性回调、美联储人事变动等扰动，震 荡加剧。截至2026年3月3日收盘，铂、钯较1月末高点分别回落21.4%、19.7%，较2月24日修复高 点亦出现显著回撤，前期反弹空间基本回吐，尚未收复年初高位。核心扰动为特朗普提名前美联 储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。沃什政策立场偏鸽但不及预期，其提名宣布后美元短线走 强拖累铂钯，且提名需参议院确认，进程及后续政策独立性仍存不确定性，短期货币政策预期博 弈持续。宏观上，鲍威尔司法调查仍动摇美元信用，全球央行购金潮延续，中国央行连续14个月 增持、波兰央行购金计划落地，去美元化下铂钯储备价值凸显；格陵兰岛地缘风险反复，为价格 提供阶段性托底，美联储6月降息预期未变，长期宽松环境仍具支撑。产业端，铂供需缺口明 确，氢能需求激增叠加南非产能约束，支撑强劲；钯供应刚性，混动需求与严苛排放政策托举需 求，现货紧平衡。整体而言，短期扰动不改变长期看多逻辑，需警惕提名进程、外盘回调等阶段 性风险。 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 2026年03月10日 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The current market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with geopolitical tensions and regulatory interventions creating a complex environment for trading [1] - The situation between the US and Iran remains a short-term focus, with signals of easing tensions leading to a significant drop in oil prices [2][12] - Regulatory bodies are actively intervening to curb speculation and prevent risks, with exchanges increasing fees and adjusting trading limits to cool overheated markets [1] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell sharply following comments from President Trump indicating that the conflict with Iran is nearing an end, and discussions about releasing strategic oil reserves are underway [2][12] - **Gold**: Precious metals are experiencing a rebound as inflation expectations cool and risk appetite improves, with long-term trends for gold remaining bullish due to geopolitical risks and diversification of central bank reserves [2][17] - **Methanol**: The methanol market saw a decline, with production rates affected by maintenance in certain facilities, and inventory levels in coastal regions remain high [3][13] Group 3: Financial Instruments - **Stock Indices**: The market is transitioning from a broad rally to a phase focused on earnings-driven performance, with strong industry leaders expected to attract investment as earnings reports are released [10] - **Government Bonds**: Yields on government bonds are rising, influenced by inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, with the central bank maintaining a flexible monetary policy [11] Group 4: Industry News - **International News**: President Trump's remarks on the Iran situation suggest a potential end to military actions, which could impact global markets [6] - **Domestic News**: Legislative efforts in China aim to strengthen financial regulations and enhance market stability, with a focus on various economic laws [7] Group 5: Shipping and Logistics - The shipping industry is facing increased costs due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which is affecting supply chains and leading to higher freight rates [29]