Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping investment logic in cyclical industries [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [1] - The technology sector has experienced a substantial cumulative increase, with the electronics industry rising by 45% and the communication equipment sector by over 38%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's 14.7% [4] - The concentration of institutional holdings in the technology sector has reached nearly historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings exceeding 40.16%, indicating a risk of overcrowding [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed three major measures for the chemical industry in 2026, signaling a shift from mere advocacy to substantial implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has extended to industry self-discipline, with products like long silk, PTA, and urea achieving industry collaboration through "production limits to maintain prices + price alliances + punitive agreements" [10] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a supply-side improvement driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided elimination," with fixed asset investments in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [5][6] - The demand side is supported by both domestic recovery and overseas improvement, with textile and apparel exports increasing by 8.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the "anti-involution" wave include selecting leading companies with strong management systems and cost advantages [14] - Specific sectors to focus on include: 1. Petrochemicals: Expected to see a turning point due to supply contraction and demand upgrades [15] 2. Coal chemicals: Benefiting from policy catalysts and cost advantages, with potential for profit recovery [16] 3. Polyester filament and PTA: Leading sectors in the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, currently entering an inventory digestion phase [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping the investment logic in cyclical industries [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [4] - The performance improvement in cyclical sectors is sustainable, with a 23% year-on-year increase in the exit scale of backward production capacity in industries like chemicals and non-ferrous metals as of Q3 2025 [4] Group 2: Drivers of Market Style Shift - Three main supports for the current market style switch include: 1. The technology sector's significant cumulative increase, with the electronics industry up 45% and communication equipment over 38% year-to-date as of November 2025, far exceeding the 14.7% rise of the CSI 300 index [6] 2. Institutional holdings in the technology sector nearing historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings surpassing 40.16% [6] 3. Clear policy signals from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding the chemical industry, enhancing the certainty of supply-side contraction in cyclical industries [6] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The core logic for supply-side improvement in the chemical industry is driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided exit," with fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [8][11] - The chemical industry has significant advantages over traditional cyclical industries in capacity optimization efficiency, industry collaboration, and high-end transformation paths [12] Group 4: Demand Recovery - The recovery in demand for the chemical industry is supported by both domestic and overseas factors, with domestic engines including improved real estate conditions and a resurgence in textile exports [13][14] - China's chemical product sales have maintained the top global position, with sales amounting to approximately €2.24 trillion in 2023, accounting for 43.1% of global sales [16][17] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in the Chemical Sector - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the anti-involution wave include: 1. Selecting leading companies with strong management and cost control [20] 2. Focusing on three reversal areas: petrochemicals, coal chemicals, and polyester filament + PTA, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [21][22][23]

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's economy is expected to achieve its annual growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a stable performance in the first three quarters, where the actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous year's level [1][11][24] - However, the economic growth rate slowed in the third quarter to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter, primarily due to the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, reduced policy intensity, and ongoing weakness in the real estate sector [1][11][24] - The report highlights a divergence between domestic and external demand, as well as between supply and demand, with manufacturing investment experiencing rare negative growth due to external uncertainties and "anti-involution" policies [1][11][24] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, the actual GDP growth was 5.2%, with the third quarter showing a slowdown to 4.8%, reflecting a "high first, low second" trend [1][11][24] - The manufacturing sector faced negative growth for the first time since Q3 2020, influenced by "anti-involution" policies and a decline in real estate demand [1][11][24] - Service consumption and emerging export categories demonstrated resilience, becoming significant supports for economic growth [1][11][24] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5% in the first three quarters, with a significant drop to -6.2% in Q3, driven by weak real estate sales and reduced local government spending on infrastructure [1][11][15] - The report anticipates a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment in Q4, supported by new policy measures and a more favorable external environment [1][11][15] - Real estate investment remains a major drag on fixed asset investment, with a decline from -12.1% in Q2 to -19.2% in Q3 [1][11][15] Consumption Insights - Social retail sales growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a further decline to 3.5% [1][11][14] - Service consumption maintained strong resilience, with service retail sales growing by 5.2%, outperforming goods retail growth [1][11][14] - Online retail sales increased by 9.8%, with non-physical goods online retail sales surging by 26.7% [1][11][14] Export Performance - Exports grew by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 growth rising to 6.5% [1][11][16] - The growth was bolstered by a 12.6% increase in exports to non-US markets, effectively offsetting declines in exports to the US [1][11][16] - High-end manufacturing and green product exports showed significant growth, with integrated circuit exports rising by 31.4% and electric passenger vehicle exports increasing by 51.2% [1][11][16] Policy Focus - The report emphasizes a shift in policy focus towards high-quality development, with an emphasis on innovation and domestic demand [1][11][6] - Recent macroeconomic policies have aimed to stabilize domestic demand, with significant financial tools and local debt issuance to support project construction and debt repayment [1][11][6] - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the direction for the next five years, focusing on building a modern industrial system and enhancing innovation efficiency [1][11][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply contraction expectations have intensified again, with polysilicon leading the rise in new energy metals. In the short - to - medium term, lithium carbonate has stopped falling due to tight supply - demand, and polysilicon prices may rise due to supply contraction expectations. In the long term, silicon supply contraction is expected, and the supply - demand surplus of lithium carbonate is narrowing [3]. - For industrial silicon, there is a situation of weak supply and demand during the dry season, and the price will fluctuate. For polysilicon, policy expectations have risen again, and the price will fluctuate and rebound. For lithium carbonate, demand expectations have boosted the price, which will oscillate at a high level [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: During the dry season, supply and demand are both weak, and the silicon price will oscillate [8]. - **Information Analysis**: As of November 26, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon is stable. The domestic inventory is 448,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In October, the domestic monthly output was 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The export volume in October was 45,073 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.8%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 12.6GW, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3%. The organic silicon industry may enter a production - cut and price - support stage [8]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces in the southwest has decreased rapidly, and the supply in the northwest fluctuates slightly. On the demand side, the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon industries may decline, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The social inventory is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipts registration [8]. - **Outlook**: If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will weaken further, but the short - term market sentiment is volatile, so the price will oscillate [8]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations have risen again, and the polysilicon price will fluctuate and rebound [8]. - **Information Analysis**: As of November 26, 2025, the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 is 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 7,270 lots. In October, the export volume decreased by 58% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 39.1% year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association will promote industry self - discipline and "anti - involution" work [9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, policy expectations have risen. In terms of supply, production in the southwest will decrease during the dry season, and long - term attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution policies. In terms of demand, the demand has weakened since November. Overall, the demand has declined marginally, but the supply is also shrinking, and the anti - involution policy is expected to strengthen, so the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy can boost the price, but the demand is weakening, so the price will show a wide - range oscillation [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Demand expectations have boosted the price, which will oscillate at a high level [8]. - **Information Analysis**: On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.99% to 96,340 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 22,323 lots to 1,055,957 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 750 yuan/ton to 92,800 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, supply and demand are both strong, and de - stocking is expected to continue from November to December. The supply is growing strongly but is restricted by ore shortages. The demand is good, and speculative demand may emerge. The social inventory is de - stocking, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo. In the long term, a bullish view is recommended [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price will oscillate at a high level [13]. 2. Market Monitoring No specific content provided for analysis. 3. Commodity Index - On November 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2,241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index was 2,543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index was 2,200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index was 1,336.40, down 0.13% [54]. - The new energy commodity index on November 26, 2025, was 451.43, with a daily increase of 0.35%, a decrease of 0.33% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.41% in the past month, and an increase of 9.47% since the beginning of the year [55].

Core Viewpoint - The ChiNext 50 Index is expected to benefit from the technology growth theme in 2026, despite a short-term market style shift towards dividend stocks. The index's performance is anticipated to return to a focus on technology growth in the medium term due to the relative earnings growth of "technology and value" not having reversed, and the TMT sector's trading density remaining low [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The current market style is temporarily rebalancing towards dividend stocks, but the growth potential in technology sectors remains strong [1]. - The ChiNext 50 Index, which has a high proportion of emerging industries, is projected to see a net profit growth rate for 2026-2027 that exceeds the average level of the Wind All A Index [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The index's constituent stocks are primarily concentrated in high-growth sectors such as power equipment and biomedicine, indicating a combination of high growth potential and good liquidity [1]. - There are signs of overheating in specific areas such as AI hardware and semiconductor equipment, suggesting a potential shift in market focus towards AI applications and consumer electronics [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The performance turning point for technology companies is expected to emerge around 2025-2026, supported by policies aimed at improving corporate profitability in the context of "anti-involution" [1]. - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) tracks the ChiNext 50 Index (399673) and has shown a daily fluctuation of up to 20%, reflecting the overall performance of well-known, large-cap, and liquid companies in the ChiNext market [1].

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - The current price of MMA is approximately 9500 RMB/ton, within the mainstream price range of the industry, with stable production capacity meeting market demand [1] - The company maintains a 30% market share in the anhydride market, with an average operating rate of 90% for its anhydride facilities [2] - The catalyst business generates annual revenue of around 400 million RMB, with a net profit of approximately 60 million RMB, indicating stable operational performance [3] Group 2: Strategic Development and Future Plans - The company plans to extend its industrial chain into high-end materials, focusing on PMMA and other high-performance resin materials [1] - A strategic layout of "one area and two bases" is being developed to enhance raw material supply stability and logistics efficiency [6] - The company aims to strengthen its competitive advantage in the catalyst sector by leveraging synergies with its controlling shareholder, Shandong Energy Group [3] Group 3: Market Challenges and Responses - The anhydride market is currently facing oversupply due to slow downstream demand, particularly influenced by the real estate sector [2] - The company is focused on cost control and process optimization to maintain its competitive edge in the anhydride market [2] - The company views anti-involution policies as beneficial for the chemical industry, promoting the elimination of outdated capacity and enhancing market order [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to return to a "technology growth" theme by 2026, with a continued trend of high performance growth in the technology sector [1] Group 1: Technology Sector - The performance growth trend in the technology sector has not reversed, and the valuation differentiation between growth and value is not at an extreme [1] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector remains relatively under-traded overall, despite some overheating in AI hardware areas like electronics and communications [1] - There are potential rebound opportunities in media and computer sectors as AI application sectors lag behind [1] Group 2: Traditional Industries - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the fundamentals of certain industries, with traditional sectors like coal and steel likely to see a recovery in profitability driven by policy support [1] - Emerging industries such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries may stabilize in supply-demand dynamics after capacity clearing [1] Group 3: Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is anticipated to experience a mild recovery, with structural opportunities in service consumption and travel industries supported by demand recovery and policy backing [1] Group 4: Index Overview - The CSI A500 ETF (159338) tracks the CSI A500 Index (000510), which selects 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] - The index emphasizes balanced industry allocation, focusing on both growth and cyclical sectors, and highlights leading companies in niche industries and representative firms in the new economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing slight upward movement after initial low-level fluctuations, indicating potential investment opportunities in specific sub-sectors such as explosives, potash, and phosphorus chemicals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) saw a price increase of 0.13% during the trading session, reflecting a broader trend in the chemical sector [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Guangdong Hongda, Yaqi International, and Salt Lake Co., have shown significant gains, with Guangdong Hongda rising over 4% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The chemical industry is currently at a dual bottom in terms of valuation and profitability, with expectations of demand improvement due to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and stabilization of global political conditions [2][3] - Cost pressures are anticipated to ease, with oil and coal prices expected to remain under pressure, leading to weaker cost support for chemical products [2] - The construction of basic chemical projects is projected to decline by 12.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors that may benefit from anti-involution policies, such as pesticides, organic silicon, and polyester filament, which are expected to have significant profit elasticity [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment option, with its underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.28, which is relatively low compared to historical levels [3] - The chemical sector is poised for a potential performance and valuation uplift driven by supply-side reforms and improved management practices among leading companies [3] Group 4: ETF Strategy - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, providing exposure to various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [4] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for efficient exposure to the chemical sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing slight upward movement after initial low-level fluctuations, indicating potential investment opportunities in specific sub-sectors like ammonium explosives, potash, and phosphate chemicals [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) saw a price increase of 0.13% during the trading session, reflecting a slight recovery in the sector [1][2]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Guangdong Hongda, Yada International, and Salt Lake Co., have shown significant gains, with Guangdong Hongda rising over 4% [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The chemical industry is positioned at a dual bottom in terms of valuation and profitability, with expectations of demand improvement due to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and stabilization in global political conditions [1][3]. - Cost pressures are anticipated to ease, with oil and coal prices expected to remain under pressure, leading to weaker cost support for chemical products [1][3]. - The construction of new projects in the basic chemical sector is projected to decline by 12.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [1][3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors that may benefit from supply-side improvements and have high profitability elasticity, such as pesticides, organic silicon, and polyester filament [3][4]. - The chemical ETF (516020) is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's rebound, as it tracks a comprehensive index covering various sub-sectors, with significant allocations to leading companies [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, the supply - demand pattern improves during the dry season, but the total inventory is high and lacks driving force. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3]. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have decreased, the overall inventory pressure is large, and the consumer - end performance is average. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [4][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract at the close was 263,919 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,714 lots, a change of - 810 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat [1]. - As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; wind power installed capacity was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total new photovoltaic capacity was 253GW [1]. - The consumption - end organic silicon DMC quotation was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. The current mainstream quotation was around 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, and downstream enterprises actively followed up. The market's confidence in a price increase was enhanced, but the increase needed to be digested. The market was expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side volatile operation, opening at 53,315 yuan/ton and closing at 54,730 yuan/ton, a 2.79% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 129,077 lots (128,427 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 235,600 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10 (a 1.50% month - on - month change), silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW (a 1.63% month - on - month change), polysilicon weekly output was 27,100.00 tons (a 1.11% month - on - month change), and silicon wafer output was 12.78GW (a - 2.59% month - on - month change) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece. Enterprises accelerated the production - reduction rhythm at the end of November, and the OEM orders of specialized factories decreased significantly, so the actual production schedule for the month was likely to be lower than expected [5]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.29 yuan/W (- 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].