投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 航运 | 集运欧线 | 1888.5 | 2.09% | 2.09% | 7.22% | 17.08% | -16.33% | 黄金 | 771.3 | -0.74% | -0.74% | 0.48% | -2.42% | 24.8 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows a majority decline, with rebar futures experiencing a slight pullback, currently at 3059 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [1] - As of July 7, 16 out of 89 surveyed blast furnaces in Tangshan are under maintenance, affecting daily iron output by approximately 39,500 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 91.36%, down 0.58% from the previous week [1] - The current market sentiment is influenced by environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, leading to adjustments in steel companies' operations [1] Group 2 - Rebar inventory is on the rise, and the demand for steel is weakening, with the market showing limited acceptance for price increases during the off-season [2] - The recent increase in rebar production and a decline in electric furnace operation rates have contributed to a slight decrease in total inventory levels [1][2] - The market outlook suggests that rebar futures will likely remain in a low-level consolidation phase in the short term [2]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/08 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 变化 -5 -222 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国总统特朗普宣布关税再度延期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-08 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 特朗普公布对日韩及其他 12 个国家的关税，截止日期为 8 月 关税期限再度延期，但谈判进展缓慢，市场维持避险情绪，三 大股指录得下跌。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） Kevin Warsh：美联储应降息 关税不会导致通胀 特朗普再度开启极限关税施压，全球市场风险偏好走低，美元 指数反弹，避险资产回升。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 央行开展了 1065 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 晨 报 资金面均衡是支撑债市走强的最核心因素，看多债市的观点仍 未发生变化，但债市直接突破或存在难度。 农产品（豆粕） 美豆优良率持平于 66% 美豆优良率 66%，和前一周持平，周度出口检验报告符合市场 预期，市场密切关注美国与各国关税谈判情况。国内进口大豆 到港充裕、油厂保持高开机令豆粕库存加速累积。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 今年以来全球新船订单总量同比下降 54% 钢价震荡小幅回落，短期基本面虽然较为坚挺，但部分现货需 求来自前期空单回补。此外市场对于外需风险的关注度依然较 高，叠 ...

从稳定币到 RWA20250707 摘要 中国人民银行与香港金管局合作启动跨境支付通，支持人民币与港币跨 境汇款，为稳定币跨境支付应用奠定基础。与京东合作的货币桥项目成 功实现数字人民币与京东稳定币的跨链交换，并发交易 47 亿笔无差错， 为经常项目下跨境稳定币交易做好准备。 股票通证化（STO）存在 Robinhood 和 xStock 两种模式。 Robinhood 模式风险较高，存在持仓不透明等问题；xStock 模式通过 券商代理购买及隔离账户，风险相对较小，但需具备合规资质。 Robinhood 选择在欧盟推行股票代币化交易服务，因欧盟对金融科技产 品接受度较高，监管环境相对宽松，且欧盟客户可通过此方式更便捷地 参与美股及 ETF 全天候交易。 代币化交易提供 24 小时不间断市场流动性，链上实时清算提高效率。 代币化实时定价领先于传统交易所，可能导致开盘或收盘时价格跳跃。 香港市场已在智能合约中支持代币化 IPO 交易。 稳定币在跨境支付中用于解决支付速度慢、成本高的问题。香港强调稳 定币在跨境交易中的作用，以提升流动性并降低难度。中国央行研究稳 定币与离岸人民币兑换，修订跨境支付规则。韩国央行推 ...

反内卷政策解读：行业视角之水泥 20250707 摘要 水泥行业产能过剩严重，2024 年产能利用率仅为 53%，远低于非金属 矿业平均水平，且销量同比下降至少 10%。区域间发展不平衡加剧问题， 部分地区开窑率已降至 30%以下，行业面临突出的结构性矛盾。 水泥企业主要通过错峰生产和控产量应对内卷，但部分企业为追求规模 化和市场份额，不执行错峰生产，导致价格波动剧烈，破坏行业生态。 尽管如此，多数企业仍对反内卷政策抱有期望。 未来水泥价格预计将持续受供需矛盾影响，需加强自律手段，如精准错 峰限产和合规限产，以控制总量并稳定市场价格。或将出台更严格的自 律措施，通过政府或行业提升处罚力度。 区域性水泥企业对反内卷政策接受度较高，而全国性布局企业在控价能 力强的区域更积极。部分产能发挥不足或使用替代燃料的企业倾向于产 能双控，龙头企业也逐渐接受错峰生产。 国家层面推进供给侧结构性改革 2.0，遏制低价无序竞争，提升产品质 量。市场监管总局加大抽查力度，淘汰低水平粉磨站。但水泥行业自律 机制受反垄断法限制，需更高层次文件支持。 Q&A 未来水泥相关产品价格预计将继续受到供需矛盾加剧和需求不断下滑的影响。 在此背景 ...

枕戈待旦——钢铁行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250707 颈问题。 摘要 房地产市场下滑导致钢铁需求占比从 2020 年的近 40%降至 2024 年的 22%，总需求萎缩，影响地产链相关钢价及制造业板材需求。 矿石和焦炭价格居高不下，占据黑色产业链利润大头，四大矿企主导格 局及国内安检趋严加剧焦炭供给紧张，导致吨钢利润收窄。 2025 年焦煤价格显著下跌，铁矿石基本面恶化，港口库存回升至 1.4- 1.5 亿吨，非主流矿增产，供给压力有所减轻。 几内亚西芒渡项目预计 2025 年 10 月至 11 月首次发运，2026 年一期 规划产能 1.2 亿吨，将占全球铁矿边际供给的约 4%，显著影响全球铁 矿供需格局。 新投产项目预计铁矿石生产成本在 50-70 美元/吨，显著改变成本曲线， 未来铁矿石价格可能降至 80 美元/吨以下，改善钢铁行业盈利。 2025 年上半年，实现全季度盈利的钢企比例从去年的 20%-30%上升 至 50%-60%，钢厂盈利能力触底反弹，吸引市场资金关注。 前五个月内需下降 2.9%，但受益于出口强劲，总需求降幅收窄至 1.2%，钢坯出口增速达 300%，缓解了内需滞销压力 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：此消彼长 | [Table_Title2] 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指 数 | 收 盘 | 涨 跌 | 幅度（%） | 五日走势 | | 上证指数 | 3473.13 | 0.81 | 0.02% | | | 沪 深300指 数 | 3965.17 | -17.03 | -0.43% | | | 中证可转债指数 | 446.59 | -0.87 | -0.19% | | | 7-10年国开债指数 | 267.35 | 0.04 | 0.02% | | | 3-5年隐含AA+信用指数 | 190.52 | 0.09 | 0.05% | | 复盘与思考: 国内商品方面，"反内卷"政策推进节奏分化，导致相关商品价格走势存在差异。政策信号较为明确的光伏产 业链相关品种走强，多晶硅、工业硅分别上涨 2.86%、0.69%。其核心驱动力或来源于工信部 7 月 3 日"综合治理 光伏行业低价无序竞争"的表态，这是"新三 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy signals the country's high - level attention to the "involution" phenomenon, especially in some over - capacity industries. The capital market has responded positively, but commodities and cyclical stocks are likely to have a "phased, limited - amplitude" rebound rather than a continuous bull market like in 2016 [6][7] - The current market is in a volatile range. Investment hotspots are concentrated in technology, military, and state - owned enterprises and public utilities sectors [7] Summary by Directory Market Observation - **Impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the market**: The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission's "anti - involution" policy has led to significant rises in relevant sectors. The policy aims to optimize the industrial structure and improve the market environment. However, due to weak demand and limited capacity adjustment space, commodities and cyclical stocks will have a limited - amplitude rebound [6][7] - **Investment suggestions**: - **Technology sector**: In July, technology may be the elastic main line. Reduced Trump policy uncertainty, the "big and beautiful" fiscal bill, and the domestic "15th Five - Year Plan" all support the technology sector [7] - **Military sector**: Driven by NATO's defense budget increase and the expectation of a high - profile military parade in China, military stocks are expected to perform well [7] - **State - owned enterprises and public utilities sectors**: Given the weakening real - estate momentum and other factors, these sectors have good allocation value in the third quarter [7] Market Review - **Market performance**: Most major market indices rose last week, with the ChiNext 50 having the largest increase of 1.93%. Among major industries, the healthcare and financial indices performed well, while the information technology and real - estate indices were weak [10][11][19] - **Trading volume**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 14414.07 billion yuan, down from the previous value, but still at a relatively high historical level [24] - **Valuation tracking**: As of July 4, 2025, the PE_TTM of the Wind All - A Index was 19.97, up 0.25 from last week, and in the 77.30% historical quantile (in the past 5 years). 25 out of 30 Shenwan primary industries saw valuation repairs [30] Economic Calendar - This week, important domestic economic data include China's foreign exchange reserves, CPI, and PPI. Overseas, there are euro - zone retail sales data, the US M2 money supply, and important events such as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow economic growth forecast and the Fed's FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes [32]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm employment figures exceeded expectations, leading to a rapid decline in the probability of interest rate cuts in July [1] - Domestic policies such as the trade-in program will continue, and anti-involution policies are emerging [1] - The aluminum industry saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons in production capacity in May, with a slight rise in operating rates [1] Group 2 - In May, China's net export of alumina was 142,500 tons, a significant decrease, marking 14 consecutive months of net exports, with export profits slightly narrowing [1] - The production cost of alumina was 2,821.9 yuan per ton, with a profit of 300.3 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease in costs and a minor reduction in profits [1] - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,540 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan per ton, providing cost support for alumina [1] Group 3 - The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained stable supply with a slight increase in production capacity [1] - In May, net imports of aluminum were 191,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40,000 tons but a month-on-month decrease of 45,800 tons, with current import losses at 1,310 yuan per ton [1] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 108 yuan per ton week-on-week, currently around 16,611 yuan, with profits at 4,259 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 82 yuan [1] Group 4 - Social inventory of aluminum reached 475,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 14,000 tons, while spot prices remained high with rapid declines in premiums [1] - The main contract for August is expected to fluctuate between 19,800 and 20,800 yuan per ton, with attention on high-season hedging opportunities [1]