Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's current economic pattern shows "strong supply and weak demand". In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, showing a continuous decline for four months. From January to September, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment turned negative, with real estate investment being the main drag, showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 13.9% [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" has been implemented, with 7 major domestic economic development goals and 12 major deployments proposed, focusing on areas such as technological development, domestic demand expansion, opening up, social livelihood, and security development [3]. - China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations, which may ease trade frictions [3]. - The market trading volume has further shrunk, indicating a short - term liquidity deterioration [3]. - Against the backdrop of policy support and ample macro - liquidity, the index is expected to return to an upward channel after the short - term adjustment, and the adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to take long - term long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Driving Forces** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: The economic pattern is "strong supply, weak demand", with production being strong and demand weak. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has positive implications for the economy, rated as neutral [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" brings positive factors, rated as neutral - bullish [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The upcoming China - US economic and trade consultations may ease trade frictions, changing from bearish to neutral [3]. - **Liquidity**: The market trading volume has shrunk, rated as bearish [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take long positions opportunistically, with a focus on long - term long - term operations. The trading strategy is to take long positions unilaterally, and attention should be paid to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4,660.7; the SSE 50 rose 2.63% to 3,045.8; the CSI 500 rose 3.46% to 7,258.5; the CSI 1000 rose 3.25% to 7,419.2 [5]. - **Futures Performance**: The IF main contract of the CSI 300 rose 3.36%, the IH main contract of the SSE 50 rose 2.88%, the IC main contract of the CSI 500 rose 4.19%, and the IM main contract of the CSI 1000 rose 3.73% [6]. - **Industry Index Performance**: The Shenwan Primary Industry Index generally rose, with communications (11.5%), electronics (8.5%), power equipment (4.9%), machinery and equipment (4.7%), and media (4.3%) leading the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.4%) and food and beverage (-0.9%) declined [10]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased. The trading volume of the CSI 300 futures decreased by 30.99%, the SSE 50 futures by 30.22%, the CSI 500 futures by 26.20%, and the CSI 1000 futures by 22.30%. The open interest of the CSI 300 futures decreased by 3.91%, the SSE 50 futures by 2.65%, the CSI 500 futures by 1.21%, and the CSI 1000 futures by 4.15% [12]. - **Spread Performance**: The spread of different contracts of various stock index futures showed different degrees of discount and premium [13][14][15]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 95.2% historical quantile level, the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 33.7% historical quantile level, the CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at the 42.5% historical quantile level, and the SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at the 35.7% historical quantile level [19]. Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations this week, achieving a net investment of 198.1 billion yuan. Next week, 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, along with 700 billion yuan of MLF and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase [27]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of October 23, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2,443.5 billion yuan, an increase of 21.57 billion yuan from the previous week. The ratio of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 11.7%, at the 96.7% quantile level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 349.49 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of October 24, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.02, at the 42.9% quantile level in the past ten years [33]. Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In September 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 4.8%, industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year, fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and social retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year. Other indicators such as inflation, social financing, and foreign trade also showed different trends [36]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: In different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure, various indicators showed different trends. For example, in the real estate industry, investment continued to decline; in the consumer industry, the sales of some categories increased, while others decreased; in the manufacturing industry, different sub - sectors had different growth rates [38][42][43]. - **Profitability of Indexes and Industries**: The profitability indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of some indexes and industries increased, while others decreased [50][51]. Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - **Recent Macro Policy Developments**: A series of macro - policies have been introduced, including policies related to service consumption, special bonds, the "15th Five - Year Plan", real estate, and consumption loans. These policies aim to promote economic development, expand domestic demand, and support specific industries [55][56][57]. Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators**: In September 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 2 percentage points from the previous value. The consumer confidence index in October was 53.6, up 1.5 from the previous value. In August, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 22,000 [65]. - **US Inflation Indicators**: In September 2025, the US PCE increased by 0% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 0% year - on - year. The CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3% year - on - year [69]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, including tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which may have an impact on international trade and the global economy [73].

Core Insights - The overall stock private equity positions have reached a nearly one-year high, with a particularly aggressive stance from large private equity firms managing between 5 billion to 10 billion yuan, where over 60% are fully invested, indicating a highly optimistic market outlook [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Private Equity Positioning - As of October 17, the stock private equity position index rose to 79.68%, an increase of 0.55% from the previous week, marking a nearly one-year high. Since August, this index has cumulatively increased by 5.75%, showing a significant trend towards increasing positions [1][3]. - Over 63.40% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, while medium positions account for 20.41%. Low and empty positions are only 11.47% and 4.72%, respectively, indicating that the majority of private equity firms are opting for high positions [3]. Group 2: Aggressive Positioning of Leading Private Equity Firms - The position index for private equity firms of different sizes as of October 17 is as follows: over 100 billion yuan at 80.18%, 50-100 billion yuan at 87.35%, 20-50 billion yuan at 76.68%, 10-20 billion yuan at 78.09%, 5-10 billion yuan at 80.79%, and 0-5 billion yuan at 79.65%. Notably, firms managing between 50 billion to 100 billion yuan have the highest position at 87.35%, a three-year high [5][6]. - The sustained high positions of large private equity firms reflect their long-term confidence in the market, supported by stable client bases and low redemption pressures, allowing for a long-term holding strategy [5]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Confidence - The recent upward trend in the A-share market since August, along with clear upward movements in certain growth and consumer sectors, has attracted private equity funds to increase their allocations [6]. - Recent policy signals aimed at stabilizing growth and encouraging innovation have bolstered private equity firms' confidence in the medium to long-term market performance. Additionally, the overall liquidity in the market is reasonable and ample, providing favorable conditions for private equity to increase positions while reducing the costs associated with large-scale adjustments [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

流动性日报 | 2025-10-24 市场流动性概况 2025-10-23，股指板块成交7975.09亿元，较上一交易日变动+35.61%；持仓金额13326.90亿元，较上一交易日变动 +7.74%；成交持仓比为60.11%。 国债板块成交4024.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.89%；持仓金额8034.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.93%；成交 持仓比为50.03%。 基本金属板块成交3433.19亿元，较上一交易日变动+19.10%；持仓金额5448.11亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.91%； 成交持仓比为75.77%。 贵金属板块成交9725.55亿元，较上一交易日变动-31.52%；持仓金额4662.87亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.70%；成交 持仓比为207.82%。 能源化工板块成交3999.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.06%；持仓金额4396.25亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.88%；成 交持仓比为72.45%。 农产品板块成交3156.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.12%；持仓金额5676.84亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.01%；成交 持仓比为53.30%。 黑色建材板块成交2327 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) provided a loan of HKD 20 million through the discount window to maintain market liquidity and stabilize the financial market [1] - The action taken by HKMA reflects its commitment to ensuring financial stability amid potential market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The current overnight Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) is reported at 7.85 for the offer rate and 7.75 for the bid rate [2] - The aggregate balance at the opening and closing of the market is influenced by various factors, including market activities and interest payments [3] - The discount window reversal indicates the return of funds previously drawn from the discount window, which can affect liquidity levels in the banking system [3]

Group 1 - The market showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining stable, primarily supported by financial and energy sectors, while growth stocks in the Shenzhen market adjusted, indicating a shift of funds from high-valuation tech stocks to undervalued value stocks [2] - The total trading volume in the market decreased to 1.64 trillion yuan, down by 239 billion yuan from the previous day, reflecting a continued decline in market enthusiasm [2] - The three major broad-based ETFs from Huabao Fund provide investors with diverse options to invest in China's market, tracking the CSI A50, CSI A100, and CSI A500 indices [2] Group 2 - The A50 ETF Huabao was launched on March 18, 2024, the China A100 ETF Fund on August 1, 2022, and the CSI A500 ETF Huabao on December 2, 2024 [1] - The market saw a net inflow of funds into specific sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in those areas [1]

流动性日报 | 2025-10-22 市场流动性概况 2025-10-21，股指板块成交7535.01亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.44%；持仓金额12964.63亿元，较上一交易日变动 +3.00%；成交持仓比为58.11%。 国债板块成交3559.14亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.52%；持仓金额8228.00亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.34%；成交持 仓比为43.52%。 基本金属板块成交2850.28亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.99%；持仓金额5210.59亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.29%；成 交持仓比为60.62%。 贵金属板块成交11144.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-31.30%；持仓金额5259.23亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.15%；成 交持仓比为258.24%。 能源化工板块成交3854.59亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.74%；持仓金额4422.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.49%；成 交持仓比为70.19%。 农产品板块成交2977.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.71%；持仓金额5685.41亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.04%；成交 持仓比为45.48%。 黑色建材板块成交2160. ...

黄金白银周二经历史诗级暴跌，"高市交易"刺激美/日大幅上涨，美股涨跌不一。 现货黄金单日重挫5.3%，盘中一度跌破4100美元，最终收于4124美元，这是2020年8月11日以来的最大单日百分比跌幅。不过由于当前金价相较5年前已经 翻倍，因此周二近250美元的日内回撤幅度是当时的两倍还多。 除了黄金，近来顺风顺水的贵金属在周二集体遭遇滑铁卢。白银隔夜幅超7%，钯金和铂金的跌幅分别为5.8%和6.3%。 这是对近期疯狂行情的修正（获利了结），还是中期调整的信号？ 黄金的衡量波动率的指标ATR（平均真实波幅）突破100美元。由于本周五有美国CPI数据公布，且目前多空双方势力更为均衡，因此黄金在本周剩余时间或 继续维持高波动。 但需要提醒的是，历史数据显示一旦ATR从峰值回落，黄金疯狂的涨势也将逐渐告一段落并转为震荡或下行走势。例如上次ATR在今年4月达到峰值，金价 在随后的5-8月进入横盘整理阶段。 另一个显示黄金可能遭遇阶段性调整的指标是金价和美国货币供应（M2）的比率。该数值达到自2011年以来的最高水平，这意味着相比于美国货币超发和 充裕的市场流动性，金价已经不再被低估。 与此同时，若把市值接近30万亿美元 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the enduring value of gold as a financial asset, contrasting it with other investments and highlighting its unique characteristics in the context of economic uncertainty and market dynamics [1][3][19] Group 1: Historical Context and Price Trends - Gold has seen significant price increases over the years, rising from 410 RMB per gram in 2020 to 1200 RMB per gram by October 2025, nearly tripling in value within five years [3] - Major events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have led to spikes in gold prices, with gold reaching $1900 per ounce in 2011 and increasing by 36% in just seven months during the pandemic [5][9] - The price of gold is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including monetary policy and market liquidity, rather than solely by geopolitical events [9][17] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total amount of gold mined globally is approximately 205,000 tons, with an estimated 54,000 tons remaining to be mined, indicating a high barrier to entry for new supply [11] - Gold's supply is characterized by a low annual increase, never exceeding 2%, contrasting sharply with the rapid expansion of fiat currency [13] - Demand for gold is primarily driven by investment and jewelry, with central bank purchases accounting for only 20.4% of total gold sales, while jewelry demand constitutes 36.2% [17] Group 3: Investment Characteristics - Gold serves as a hedge against economic uncertainty, appealing primarily to high-net-worth individuals who prioritize capital preservation over short-term gains [15][19] - The volatility of gold prices, with an annualized volatility of 15.5%, makes it a risky investment for ordinary investors who may not be able to absorb significant price fluctuations [15] - Gold does not generate income like stocks or bonds, making it a unique asset that retains value without relying on credit or government backing [13][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on October 20, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - Multiple figures are used to show the trading - holding ratio, transaction amount change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and transaction amount of each sector, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][5][8] 2. Stock Index Plate - On October 20, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 707.913 billion yuan, a 26.46% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1258.663 billion yuan, a 2.50% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 55.88%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the stock index plate [1][5] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - On October 20, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 365.097 billion yuan, a 0.38% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 811.886 billion yuan, a 1.87% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 44.77%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][5] 4. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On October 20, 2025, the base metals plate had a trading volume of 343.366 billion yuan, a 7.22% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 522.558 billion yuan, a 0.10% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 65.34%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 1622.201 billion yuan, a 3.11% increase; the holding amount was 514.839 billion yuan, a 5.58% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 395.70%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the metal plate [1][5] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - On October 20, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 364.539 billion yuan, an 8.64% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 444.413 billion yuan, a 0.31% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 70.33%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each major variety in the energy and chemical plate [1][5] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - On October 20, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 322.678 billion yuan, a 4.22% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 568.290 billion yuan, a 0.77% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 51.36%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each major variety in the agricultural products plate [1][5] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - On October 20, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 274.430 billion yuan, a 16.23% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 358.618 billion yuan, a 1.98% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 74.05%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][5]