Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal: Sideways [7] - Coke: Sideways [7] - Steam Coal: No specific strategy provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has declined, and prices are fluctuating. The steel market needs to compress profits to control supply and reconstruct the supply - demand balance, but the cost support is strong, so the price adjustment space is limited. The iron ore supply has increased, but the demand is also resilient, and the long - term supply is still relatively loose. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by supply and downstream demand, and attention should be paid to supply recovery and downstream restocking. The steam coal market has a short - term price fluctuation due to supply contraction and long - term supply is in a loose pattern [1][3][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,155 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,419 yuan/ton. The national inventory of building materials was 4.4259 million tons, a 6.08% week - on - week increase, and the national inventory of hot - rolled coils was 1.9654 million tons, a 3.07% week - on - week increase [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production and sales of building materials continued to weaken, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was average, and speculative demand was insufficient. The production and sales of plates rebounded, but high prices affected exports. The market needs to control supply through profit compression, but cost support is strong [1] - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The iron ore futures price fluctuated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total port trading volume was 1.003 million tons, a 5.02% week - on - week decrease, and the forward spot trading volume was 1.04 million tons, a 39.71% week - on - week decrease. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 3.599 million tons to 34.066 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 0.947 million tons to 24.766 million tons [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply increased, and the demand was resilient. The port and in - plant inventories increased, and the berthing volume decreased significantly. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction was limited; in the long term, the supply was relatively loose [3] - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated downward. Coke started the seventh round of price increase. The price of imported Mongolian coking coal was stable at 980 - 1020 yuan/ton [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply of coking coal was tight, and some mines had inventory accumulation. The supply of coke increased insufficiently, and the inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to supply recovery, downstream restocking, and macro - policy guidance [6] - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Steam Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, the supply tightened due to concentrated mine overhauls, and the price rose. At ports, the market sentiment declined, and the trading was sluggish. The import coal had a price advantage, and the downstream procurement was active [8] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply in production areas contracted, and the short - term price fluctuated. In the long term, the supply was in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8] - Strategy: No specific strategy provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the nickel variety, the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and with the decline in liquidity during the delivery month, nickel prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel variety, domestic stainless - steel production remains at a high level. Although the downstream stainless - steel inventory has decreased week - on - week, the real - estate industry is sluggish, and the manufacturing industries such as home appliances and automobiles mainly make purchases based on rigid demand, making it difficult to support price rebounds [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 opened at 120,710 yuan/ton and closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, a - 0.29% change from the previous trading day's close. Affected by the rise in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small rally but failed to break through the 121,000 yuan/ton resistance level. Due to the approaching delivery month, market liquidity declined, and the price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 120,500 - 120,800 yuan/ton, finally closing near 120,600 yuan/ton, a slight 0.12% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 5 - day low of 120,140 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 120,700 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, indicating insufficient bullish power [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market was calm on the day, with prices stable. In the Philippines, 1.3% nickel - ore resources in September were traded at FOB 29 - 32, and there were differences in ore - end prices. Although the loss situation of downstream iron plants has improved, they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel - ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the August (second - phase) nickel - ore domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the August (second - phase) premium to decline due to thin profits [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,600 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak on the day, and downstream enterprises were still in a wait - and - see mood, with general refined - nickel spot trading. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 23,051 (910.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 210,414 (- 1,248) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly adopt range - bound operations. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [2]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 13,015 yuan/ton and closed at 13,010 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small dip to around 13,000 yuan/ton. Although the domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons week - on - week to 1.079 million tons, concerns about high - supply pressure dominated the sentiment. The price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 12,980 - 13,020 yuan/ton, finally closing at 13,010 yuan/ton, a 0.15% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume shrank to 46,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by about 2,000 lots, indicating reduced capital participation. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 3 - day low of 12,965 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 13,010 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, showing insufficient bullish power [3]. - **Spot**: Although some traders tentatively raised prices in the morning, downstream acceptance of high prices was still low, with few actual transactions. As the futures market declined, the spot price basically returned to last week's level in the afternoon, with little overall fluctuation. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 345 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 926.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [5].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-19 下游刚需偏弱，聚烯烃窄幅震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7334元/吨（-17），PP主力合约收盘价为7048元/吨（-36），LL华北现货为7250 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7000元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为-84元/吨（+17），LL 华东基差为-34元/吨（+17）， PP华东基差为-48元/吨（-4）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为451.6元/吨（+72.3），PP油制生产利润为-48.4元/吨（+72.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为190.0元/吨（+15.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-115.0元/吨（-5.3），PP进口利润为-461.4元/吨（+37.8），PP出口利润为30.1美元/吨（+0.7）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为41.4%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工 ...

1. Sugar Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The report anticipates that Zhengzhou sugar will remain volatile with reduced downward momentum. The decline in Brazilian sugarcane yield per unit and concerns about the high sugar - making ratio have raised the risk of a downward revision in Brazilian sugar production, leading to a rebound in raw sugar after a period of low - level consolidation. Although India and Thailand are expected to have bumper harvests, there may be differences from expectations. In the short term, it is difficult for raw sugar to experience a significant decline. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17 cents per pound. In July, sugar imports are expected to be significantly higher than the same period last year. However, as the futures price stops falling and rebounds, the inventory reduction progress in Guangxi has further improved, which generally supports the price. Currently, the domestic news is relatively calm [1]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.14% to 5672 yuan/ton, while sugar 2509 decreased by 0.07% to 5736 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 1.40% to 16.24 cents per pound. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 15.79% to - 64 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 2.34% to 322,832, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16,931 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5980 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it decreased by 0.09% to 5855 yuan/ton. The Nanning basis increased by 1.67% to 244 yuan/ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 0.83% to 119 yuan/ton. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) increased by 0.20% to 4561 yuan/ton, and (out - of - quota) increased by 0.17% to 5796 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: Nationally, the cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 15.76% to 955.00 million tons. In Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, and the monthly sales decreased by 37.99% to 35.55 million tons. The national cumulative sugar sales rate increased by 3.36% to 85.60%, and in Guangxi, it increased by 3.04% to 85.01%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 10.44% to 96.89 million tons, and in Guangxi, it decreased by 12.23% to 181.97 million tons. Sugar imports increased by 160.00% to 13.00 million tons [1]. 2. Cotton Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View After the cotton price stabilized at the beginning of August, the downstream of the cotton industry has gradually improved marginally. The inventory of cotton yarn products has slightly decreased, and the spinning mills' operating rate has remained stable. The market is concerned about whether the downstream will continue to improve marginally during the traditional peak season, which provides support for the cotton price at low levels. Meanwhile, before the new cotton is launched, the spot basis remains firm, and there is a shortage of low - basis spot cotton in Xinjiang warehouses, which also strongly supports the cotton price. However, as the new cotton is about to be launched, the expected increase in the new - season cotton production still exerts some pressure on the long - term supply. In summary, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is launched [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.04% to 13,830 yuan/ton, and cotton 2601 increased by 0.04% to 14,125 yuan/ton. The ICE US cotton主力 increased by 0.53% to 67.84 cents per pound. The 9 - 1 spread of cotton decreased by 3.51% to - 295 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 1.77% to 486,067, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7762 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B increased by 0.07% to 15,082 yuan/ton, and the CC Index 3128B increased by 0.12% to 15,234 yuan/ton. The FC Index M 1% decreased by 0.13% to 13,541 yuan/ton. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract increased by 1.21% to 1252 yuan/ton, and 3128B - 05 contract increased by 0.53% to 957 yuan/ton. The difference between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% increased by 2.11% to 1693 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9% to 218.98 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 1.8% to 89.84 million tons. Imports increased by 66.7% to 5.00 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 8.0% to 30.10 million tons. The year - on - year inventory of the textile industry decreased by 57.9% to 0.80. The inventory days of yarn decreased by 2.4% to 27.67 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth decreased by 3.0% to 36.14 days. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6% to 53.46 million tons. The immediate processing profit of spinning mills C32s decreased by 1.0% to - 2037.40 yuan/ton. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles decreased by 24.7% to 961.00 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles decreased by 5.3% to 1.80%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased by 3.7% to 116.04 billion US dollars, and the year - on - year growth rate increased by 131.7% to 0.52%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 0.7% to 151.62 billion US dollars, and the year - on - year growth rate decreased by 176.8% to - 0.61 [2]. 3. Egg Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The report expects the egg price to maintain a bearish trend. The inventory of laying hens is still large, and the egg production is generally sufficient. There is an abundance of small - and medium - sized eggs in most production areas, and the supply of large - sized eggs has increased in some areas. Cold - stored eggs are planned to enter the market soon, which may further increase the supply pressure. The current downstream digestion speed is average [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 2.70% to 3098 yuan/500KG, and the egg 10 contract decreased by 2.17% to 3113 yuan/500KG. The 9 - 10 spread decreased by 850.00% to - 15 yuan/500KG [5]. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the producing areas increased by 5.47% to 3.31 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 567.84% to 198 yuan/500KG [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of laying - hen chicks decreased by 6.49% to 3.60 yuan/feather, the price of culled hens decreased by 3.53% to 5.47 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 7.20% to 2.45, and the breeding profit decreased by 111.23% to - 21.44 yuan/feather [5]. 4. Pig Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The spot price of pigs has stabilized, and downstream procurement is smooth. However, the reluctance of farmers to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening activities have supported the pig price. Currently, both supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the group farms' pig sales in August will continue to recover, and farmers who previously held back large pigs also need to sell them. Therefore, it is still difficult to be optimistic about the future pig price. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies. At the same time, as the pig weight is continuously decreasing and the growth rate of production capacity is slowing down, the support at the lower level is increasing. It is not recommended to blindly short, but in the case where the futures market has offered good hedging profits, the impact of hedging funds also needs to be considered [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract decreased by 9.33% to - 410 yuan/ton. The price of cattle pigs 2511 decreased by 0.90% to 13,820 yuan/ton, and pigs 2601 decreased by 0.46% to 14,160 yuan/ton. The 11 - 1 spread of pigs decreased by 21.43% to - 340 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 9.79% to 71,193, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 430 [8]. - **Spot Market**: The pig price in Henan decreased by 100 yuan to 13,750 yuan/ton, in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 13,900 yuan/ton, in Liaoning decreased by 50 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton, and in Hebei decreased by 100 yuan to 13,700 yuan/ton. The prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Anhui remained unchanged at 13,500 yuan/ton, 15,040 yuan/ton, and 13,760 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 0.54% to 140,396. The weekly white - strip pig price remained unchanged at 20.31 yuan/kg. The weekly price of piglets and sows remained unchanged at 32.53 yuan/kg. The weekly average slaughter weight increased slightly to 127.82 kg. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 36.07% to 29 yuan/head, and the weekly profit from purchasing piglets decreased by 17.08% to - 157 yuan/head. The monthly inventory of sows capable of reproduction increased by 0.02% to 4043 million heads [8]. 5. Meal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The USDA monthly supply - and - demand report has supported the US soybean price by adjusting the planting area, yield forecast, and inventory - to - sales ratio. However, the high - quality rate of new - season US soybeans remains high, and China has not yet imported new - season US soybeans, so there is still pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the results of the profarmer inspection this week. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce had a short - term positive impact on the market, but the futures price has since declined, and it is difficult to continue to rise in the short term. In terms of the spot basis, the current inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is continuously increasing, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, so the spot price is still under pressure. In operation, the bottom range of meal products has moved up, and the overall trend is still upward. Long - term long positions can be gradually established at low levels [12]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3070 yuan/ton. The price of the M2601 contract increased by 0.57% to 3155 yuan/ton. The basis of M2601 decreased by 26.87% to - 85 yuan/ton. The spot basis in Jiangsu is m2601 - 160. The import crushing profit of US Gulf shipments remained unchanged, and the import crushing profit of Brazilian October shipments decreased by 19.6% to 74 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,925 [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.53% to 2650 yuan/ton. The price of the RM2601 contract increased by 1.73% to 2590 yuan/ton. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 6.25% to 60 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit of Canadian November shipments remained unchanged at 596 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 9821 [12]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans decreased by 0.25% to 3950 yuan/ton. The price of the soybean - one main contract decreased by 0.30% to 4044 yuan/ton. The basis of the soybean - one main contract increased by 2.08% to - 94 yuan/ton. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3700 yuan/ton. The price of the soybean - two main contract increased by 0.21% to 3800 yuan/ton. The basis of the soybean - two main contract decreased by 8.70% to - 100 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.25% to 12,632 [12]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 1.85% to - 55 yuan/ton, the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 4.85% to 8 yuan/ton. The spot oil - to - meal ratio increased by 0.57% to 2.88, and the main - contract oil - to - meal ratio decreased by 0.78% to 2.70. The spot difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 8.70% to 420 yuan/ton, and the 2509 difference decreased by 4.40% to 565 yuan/ton [12]. 6. Corn Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The policy - end import corn auction is held twice a week, with about 40 million tons put up for auction, but the transaction rate is less than 20%, and the trading is relatively light. Affected by the upcoming new - grain harvest, the rebound of the spot price is limited. There are no obvious bright spots on the demand side, and deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises mainly consume their own inventories and purchase corn on a just - in - time basis. On the substitution side, the price of wheat is strongly supported by the purchase - at - support - price policy, and the price difference between corn and wheat is at a similar level, which has squeezed some of the corn demand. In summary, the overall market trading is light, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing, so the futures price will maintain a weak - fluctuating trend. In the medium term, the cost of new - season corn will decrease, and the production may increase steadily, resulting in obvious supply pressure. The futures price will move towards the new - season cost. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [14]. Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract decreased by 0.59% to 2177 yuan/ton. The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.43% to 2310 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 2.31% to 133 yuan/ton. The 11 - 3 spread of corn decreased by 18.75% to - 19 yuan/ton. The bulk grain price at Shekou remained unchanged at 2400 yuan/ton. The north - south trading profit increased by 250.00% to 14 yuan/ton. The CIF price remained unchanged at 1926 yuan/ton, and the import profit remained unchanged at 474 yuan/ton. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 13.21% to 180. The position increased by 3

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The current rubber market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short factors intertwined, and prices mainly fluctuate within a range. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 150 yuan/ton to 14,900 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.02%. The whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 235 to - 920, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 25 to - 1035, with a growth rate of 2.36%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 to - 80, with a decline rate of 18.75%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10 to 1130, with a decline rate of 0.88% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, with a growth rate of 44.23%; Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, with a decline rate of 12.03%; India's production increased by 14,700 tons to 62,400 tons, with a growth rate of 30.82%; China's production increased by 6,800 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.28 to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production decreased by 100% to 0, and tire export volume increased by 6340,000 to 66,650,000, with a growth rate of 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 10,000 tons to 463,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.21% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of August 18, the bonded area inventory decreased by 11,918 to 619,852, with a decline rate of 1.89%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 4,234 to 46,469, with a growth rate of 10.02% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the price of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to the low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices. The main contract has shifted to SI2511 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On August 18, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 200 to 795, with a growth rate of 33.61% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 to - 20, with a decline rate of 33.33%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 to - 5, with a growth rate of 50.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged at - 365; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 25 to 20, with a growth rate of 500.00%; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 45 to - 30, with a decline rate of 300.00% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In the monthly data, the national industrial silicon production increased by 10,600 tons to 338,300 tons, with a growth rate of 3.23%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 27,000 tons to 150,300 tons, with a decline rate of 15.21%. Yunnan's production increased by 24,900 tons to 41,200 tons, with a growth rate of 153.86%. Sichuan's production increased by 11,500 tons to 48,500 tons, with a growth rate of 31.05%. The national开工率 increased by 1.27 to 52.61%, with a growth rate of 2.47%. Xinjiang's开工率 decreased by 11.71 to 52.59%, with a decline rate of 18.21%. Yunnan's开工率 increased by 18.82 to 32.89%, with a growth rate of 133.76%. Sichuan's开工率 increased by 13.39 to 36.96%, with a growth rate of 56.81%. The production of silicone DMC decreased by 9,500 tons to 199,800 tons, with a decline rate of 4.54%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1,000 tons to 625,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.63%. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 12,700 tons to 68,300 tons, with a growth rate of 22.77% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 to 11.70 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. The Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 to 3.14 tons, with a growth rate of 2.61%. The Sichuan factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 to 2.26 tons, with a decline rate of 0.88%. The social inventory decreased by 0.20 to 54.50 tons, with a decline rate of 0.37%. The order inventory increased by 0.06 to 25.36 tons, with a growth rate of 0.22%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.26 to 29.15 tons, with a decline rate of 0.87% [3]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and try shorting by buying put options at high prices when the volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) increased by 460 to - 5280, with a growth rate of 8.01% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 460 to 52,280 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.87%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 50 to - 135, with a growth rate of 27.03%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 30 to 75, with a growth rate of 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In the weekly data, the silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 to 12.10 GM, with a growth rate of 0.67%. The polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 to 2.93 tons, with a decline rate of 0.34%. In the monthly data, the polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.10 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.02 to 0.08 tons, with a decline rate of 16.90%. The polysilicon export volume increased by 0.08 to 0.21 tons, with a growth rate of 66.17%. The net export volume of polysilicon increased by 0.10 to 0.13 tons, with a growth rate of 323.61%. The silicon wafer production decreased by 6.09 to 52.75 GM, with a decline rate of 10.35%. The silicon wafer import volume decreased by 0.01 to 0.07 tons, with a decline rate of 15.29%. The silicon wafer export volume decreased by 0.08 to 0.55 tons, with a decline rate of 12.97%. The net export volume of silicon wafer decreased by 0.07 to 0.48 tons, with a decline rate of 12.59%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.12 to 58.54 GM, with a growth rate of 0.21% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 to 24.20 tons, with a growth rate of 3.86%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 to 19.80 GM, with a growth rate of 3.61%. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 220 to 5,820 hands, with a growth rate of 3.93% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has obvious over - supply. The inventory is in a re - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants [5]. - **Glass**: The near - month 09 contract of glass is weak, and the far - month 01 contract fluctuates. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. The glass industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On August 18, the price of glass 2505 decreased by 7 to 1309 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.53%. The price of glass 2509 decreased by 7 to 1046 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%. The 05 basis increased by 7 to - 159, with a growth rate of 4.22% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash 2505 decreased by 2 to 1450 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.14%. The price of soda ash 2509 decreased by 1 to 1293 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.07%. The 05 basis increased by 2 to - 100, with a growth rate of 1.96% [5]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate increased by 2.24% to 87.32%. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.7 tons to 76.13 tons, with a growth rate of 2.23%. The float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons. The photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 157.9 to 6342.60 tons, with a growth rate of 2.55%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 189.38 tons, with a growth rate of 1.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 46.66 tons, with a growth rate of 3.85%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 23.4 days [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%. The growth rate of the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%. The growth rate of the completed area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%. The growth rate of the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the log futures price showed a weak correction. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On August 18, the 2509 log contract closed at 811 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [6]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.182. The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.04 to 818.62 yuan [6]. - **Port Shipment and Departure**: In July, the port shipment volume decreased by 2.7 to 173.3 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1.51%. The number of departure ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6 to 47, with a decline rate of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national coniferous log total inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 0.65%. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 72,000 cubic meters to 1.854 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 3.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu increased by 55,100 cubic meters to 983,000 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 5.95% [6]. - **Demand**: As of August 15, the national log daily average shipment volume was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Shandong decreased by 500 cubic meters to 35,900 cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Jiangsu increased by 600 cubic meters to 23,200 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 3% [6].

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2601 opened at 7352 yuan/ton, closed at 7334 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.14%); Plastic 2605 opened at 7346 yuan/ton, closed at 7312 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-0.40%); Plastic 2509 opened at 7308 yuan/ton, closed at 7292 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.04%); PP2601 opened at 7073 yuan/ton, closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-0.49%); PP2605 opened at 7075 yuan/ton, closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.44%); PP2509 opened at 7051 yuan/ton, closed at 7026 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.51) [5] Group 3: Market Analysis - Market Performance: Futures prices fluctuated downward, suppressing the spot market atmosphere. Traders were eager to sell, but downstream factories' enthusiasm for replenishing stocks did not improve, mainly purchasing in small quantities at low prices [6] - Supply Side: Upstream device operating loads continued to increase. Although PP maintenance losses were still at a high level, with the restart of previously shut - down devices and few new maintenance devices, the impact of maintenance decreased and the expectation of new capacity expansion increased. PE had no new plans, and after the end of the centralized maintenance period, the operating load and output continued to increase. Next week, due to more shut - down and planned shut - down devices, the supply pressure was relatively neutral [6] - Downstream Consumption: The operating loads of agricultural film, plastic weaving, and BOPP increased month - on - month. Some enterprises' orders improved, but the expectation for the peak season was weaker year - on - year [6] - Market Outlook: During the macro - window period, the market returned to fundamentals. A unilateral oscillation mindset was adopted. There was an expectation of improvement in supply - demand margins during the off - peak to peak season transition. Attention should be paid to the improvement of demand in the second half of the month and the actual support of inventory reduction [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 18, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, a 7.84% increase (60,000 tons) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 830,000 tons [7] - PE Market Price: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7200 - 7430 yuan/ton, in East China was 7260 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market Price: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. There were both device startups and shutdowns, and the supply side was mixed. Production enterprises' quotes were mostly slightly increased, and downstream factories purchased at low prices. The market was mainly a game between supply and demand [7] - PP Market Price: The PP market declined slightly. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6900 - 7020 yuan/ton, in East China was 6960 - 7080 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6880 - 7120 yuan/ton [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract fluctuates widely, with strong support in the 3120 - 3130 range, remaining in an upward - prone and downward - resistant pattern in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term target is set at 3300. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to rise, but the inventory pressure of oil mills restricts the recovery of the spot basis [17][18]. - For live pigs, the short - term slaughter rhythm may change due to farmers' resistance to price cuts, and the spot price will adjust steadily. The decline of live pig futures prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait for a callback to lightly test long positions [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The main DCE soybean meal 2601 contract rose 0.57% to 3155 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2601 contract decreased by 0.46% to 14160 yuan/ton, and the national average ex - factory price of live pigs dropped by 0.02 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 1.14% to 1043 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - Temperatures in the US Midwest will rise this weekend. There will be scattered showers in the north of the western region until Sunday and on Monday, and temperatures from Friday to Monday will be above normal. The eastern region was generally dry on Friday, with scattered showers in the north from Saturday to Monday, and temperatures above normal. There may be floods in some areas around Minnesota and Wisconsin, and more areas may face drought after the front passes [3]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of the week ending August 15, the domestic soybean crushing volume of major oil mills was 234 million tons, up 16 million tons week - on - week, 3 million tons month - on - month, 31 million tons year - on - year, and 52 million tons higher than the average of the past three years. It is expected to reach 240 million tons this week [4]. - On August 18, the import cost of US soybeans was 4656 yuan, up 49 yuan from the previous day, and that of Brazilian soybeans was 4047 yuan, up 59 yuan [4]. - On August 15, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal decreased to 66,000 tons, with spot trading volume at 15,000 tons and basis trading volume at 51,000 tons. The average trading price dropped to 3086 yuan/ton [4]. - The US Department of Agriculture maintained the 2025/26 US soybean meal supply - demand data unchanged, with production at 59.85 million short tons, up 4.5% year - on - year; domestic consumption at 41.775 million short tons, up 2.8%; exports at 18.7 million short tons, up 4.5%; ending stocks at 475,000 short tons, up 5.6%; and the annual average price down 10 dollars to 280 dollars/short ton [5]. - On August 15, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipment was - 53 to - 78 yuan/ton, up 31 - 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot crushing profit was - 2 to 22 yuan/ton, up 28 - 44 yuan/ton [6]. - As of the week ending August 10, Canadian rapeseed exports increased 864.4% to 254,600 tons, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [6]. - Last week, US soybean futures prices fluctuated upwards, and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans declined slightly. On August 15, the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for October shipment was 300 cents/bushel, down 27 cents/bushel week - on - week; that for November shipment was 310 cents/bushel, down 30 cents/bushel [7]. - NOPA reported that US member units crushed 195.699 million bushels of soybeans in July, up 5.6% from June and 7% from July 2024 [7]. - The central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 15.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 84.6%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 42.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.5% [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][14][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, US soybean futures rose on Friday, and the NOPA report showed an increase in soybean crushing in July. The Pro Farmer crop tour results may break the market's oscillation pattern. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is expected to rise, and the spot price is likely to increase, but the inventory pressure of oil mills restricts the basis recovery [17][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may change due to farmers' attitudes, and the demand is expected to improve with the start of school and holiday preparations. It is recommended to wait for a callback to lightly test long positions [19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry's supply - demand pattern shows continuous capacity expansion and weak demand growth, which is consistent with previous research. There are significant differences in cost and formula among paper mills. The cash cost for enterprises to produce double - offset paper that meets the delivery standard is estimated to be in the range of 3800 - 4200 yuan/ton [3][40][42]. - After the futures are listed, double - offset paper prices face potential upward and downward risks. The downward risk comes from the negative feedback between price and cost, while the upward risk is due to the market's possible over - pessimism and high short - trading congestion [4][42][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Product Structure**: Enterprises focused on publishing have a higher proportion of natural - white paper. Orders from the publishing industry mainly require natural - white paper, while the proportion of natural - white paper in social orders is significantly lower. The difference in product structure between the north and south markets is due to order differences [8]. - **Formula**: Different enterprises have large differences in formula. With the continuous expansion of finished - paper production capacity and the slowdown of cultural - paper demand, enterprises are increasing the use of chemimechanical pulp and reducing the use of chemical pulp. Some producers in South China can make double - offset paper without adding softwood pulp [10][12]. - **Capacity and Production**: Some production lines may switch production. The overall operating level has not decreased significantly. Some enterprises achieved full production and sales in the first half of the year, while others had an operating level of about 80% - 90% [12]. - **Raw Material Procurement**: Most enterprises mainly purchase commercial pulp externally, covering mainstream softwood and hardwood brands. Some enterprises are self - sufficient in chemimechanical pulp, while others purchase it externally. It is difficult for some domestic hardwood pulp to completely replace imported hardwood pulp [15][18]. - **Product Conversion**: Converting between natural - white and high - white paper usually only requires adding bleach [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Sales Channels**: There is significant differentiation among sample enterprises. Publishing orders are mainly direct - sold, while social orders include both distribution and direct - to - printer sales [20]. - **Seasonal Demand**: The seasonal characteristics of demand are gradually being smoothed out. The consumption peak of pulp lags behind that of double - offset paper. There may be an opportunity for the strategy of going long on pulp and short on paper after downstream enterprises complete their bidding [22]. - **Policy Impact**: The "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy has different impacts on publishers of different natures, mainly affecting social book - sellers. It may reduce the double - offset paper demand of private tutoring materials by about 20% - 30% [26]. - **Sales Radius**: Paper enterprises' sales can cover a radius of 500 - 800 km [26]. 3.3 Inventory - **Raw Material Inventory**: Self - produced pulp has little inventory, while the inventory days of externally purchased commercial pulp vary among enterprises, with small and medium - sized factories having shorter inventory days [27]. - **Finished - Product Inventory**: The inventory is slightly higher than last year but generally acceptable. Most enterprises' inventory levels are within one month, and they have clear inventory red lines [27]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Enterprises supplying paper to publishers usually reserve inventory in advance, with a cycle of half a year to one year. Traders may have a certain demand for stockpiling when the price reaches around 4000 yuan [29]. 3.4 Price and Cost - **Pricing Logic**: Paper mills price their products mainly based on orders and market conditions, i.e., demand - driven pricing. High inventory levels may lead to price cuts to reduce inventory [30]. - **Cost Factors**: Formula, wood - pulp self - sufficiency rate, and the presence of self - owned power plants have a significant impact on costs. A higher proportion of chemimechanical pulp and self - owned power plants can reduce costs [31]. - **Profitability**: Most producers still make a profit, while one enterprise is near the break - even point [37]. 3.5 Market Expectations - **Paper Price Outlook**: The industry's supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and most sample participants are not optimistic about paper prices. The downward space is estimated to be around 100 - 200 yuan/ton [38]. - **Futures Attitude**: The willingness of the industry to participate in futures depends on whether their products are delivery brands. Long - side acceptance willingness is relatively weak. Industry short - side forces need to see an absolute high price to enter the market, while long - side chips may come from private book - sellers and some traders with social - order resources [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 18, the SM2601 contract of manganese - silicon reported 6120, up 0.36%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was 5900. Considering the macro - level, position limits affected market sentiment. Fundamentally, production has been on the rise since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level, and raw material costs and downstream iron - water production are at a high level. Profits vary by region, and the August steel mill procurement tender price increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 18, the SF2511 contract of silicon - iron reported 5880, down 0.37%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon - iron was 5610. The US Trump administration expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. In terms of supply and demand, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks after profit improvement, and inventory has also increased. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and the overall steel demand expectation is still weak. The August steel mill procurement tender price increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 6026 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5880 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 590,689 hands, down 1028 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 446,020 hands, up 12,269 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 81,119 hands, up 5075 hands; the net position of the top 20 in silicon - iron was - 24,060 hands, up 5047 hands [2]. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 94 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was 156 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The SM仓单 was 73,660 sheets, down 1137 sheets; the SF仓单 was 20,716 sheets, down 200 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Guizhou was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Qinghai was 5520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Yunnan was 5920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Ningxia was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5870 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton; the daily basis of the SF主力合约 was - 270 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton [2]. - The daily basis of the SM主力合约 was - 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore (Mn38 block) at Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%) in the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material) in Shenmu was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly port inventory of manganese ore was 446.60 million tons, down 2.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of manganese - silicon enterprises was 45.75%, up 2.32 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of silicon - iron enterprises was 36.18%, up 1.86 percentage points [2]. - The weekly supply of manganese - silicon was 207,060 tons, up 11,235 tons; the weekly supply of silicon - iron was 112,900 tons, up 3800 tons [2]. - The half - monthly inventory of manganese - silicon manufacturers was 158,800 tons, down 2700 tons; the half - monthly inventory of silicon - iron manufacturers was 65,180 tons, down 6590 tons [2]. - The monthly inventory days of manganese - silicon in national steel mills was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the monthly inventory days of silicon - iron in national steel mills was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 125,382 tons, up 182 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - iron from the five major steel types was 20,313.96 tons, up 47.66 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, down 3.524 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, focusing on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and creating effective demand through high - quality supply [2]. - China's coal consumption ratio decreased from 56.8% in 2020 to 53.2% in 2024, while the non - fossil energy consumption ratio increased from 15.9% to 19.8% [2]. - Although future real - estate new construction will decrease significantly, the existing housing stock will be huge. By 2030, the area of residential buildings over 30 years old will exceed 10 billion square meters [2]. - Trump mentioned in a call with Zelensky that Russia hopes Ukraine will hand over the Donbass region in exchange for a cease - fire [2].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The domestic old - crop cotton supply is tight, which supports price fluctuations, but weak downstream demand restricts the upside. The cotton market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract was 14,125 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and that of the main cotton yarn contract was 20,155 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 63,829 lots (down 3,972 lots), and for cotton yarn futures it was - 421 lots (up 34 lots). The main - contract positions of cotton and cotton yarn were 486,067 lots (up 8,447 lots) and 21,948 lots (up 612 lots) respectively. The cotton and cotton - yarn warehouse receipt numbers were 7,762 (down 67) and 69 (down 5) respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,234 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), and the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,720 yuan/ton (unchanged). The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,558 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan), and the arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 22,128 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares (up 48.3 thousand hectares), and the national cotton output was 616 tons (up 54 tons) [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,486 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan). The national industrial inventory of cotton was 85 tons (up 2.4 tons), and the national commercial inventory of cotton was 282.98 tons (down 62.89 tons). The import volume of cotton was 5 tons (up 2 tons), and that of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons (up 10,000 tons). The profit of imported cotton was 890 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days (up 1.52 days), and the grey - cloth inventory days were 35.46 days (up 2.57 days). The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters (up 0.109 billion meters), and the monthly yarn output was 206.5 tons (up 11.4 tons). The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1,526,671,400 US dollars (up 168,897,700 US dollars), and that of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1,204,820,700 US dollars (down 58,356,600 US dollars) [2]. - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 10.9% (down 0.19%), and that of at - the - money put options was 10.88% (down 0.18%). The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.2% (up 0.19%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 5.64% (up 0.04%) [2]. 2. Industry News - China's cotton imports in July were 5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative import of cotton was 52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2% [2]. - As of August 15, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.8561 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,600 tons (a decrease of 7.50%). In Xinjiang, the commercial inventory of cotton was 1.1319 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,000 tons (a decrease of 11.70%); in inland areas, it was 418,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,900 tons (an increase of 3.69%) [2]. - The December ICE cotton contract closed down 0.16% last Friday. The January 2026 cotton contract closed up 0.11% on Monday, and the November 2025 cotton - yarn contract closed down 0.22%. The US Department of Agriculture's export sales report showed that for the week ending August 7, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current market year was 242,000 bales, and that for the next year was 1,100 bales [2].