1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation should still be mainly to go long on dips [1]. - The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support level at 50,000 yuan [7]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to remain under pressure, and it is currently oscillating in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [10][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely today. The main 2605 contract fell 1.09% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 143,420 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: The recent trading logic mainly includes the confirmed price increase of downstream lithium iron phosphate and the smooth price transmission downstream, as well as the concerns about the stability of South American lithium resource supply due to the sudden change in the geopolitical situation in Venezuela. Today's weekly production and inventory data showed an increase of 115 tons in production and a stockpile of 337 tons. However, there is a phenomenon of traders locking in inventory, and the inventories of smelters and downstream are at the lowest levels of the year, with the smelter inventory reaching a three - year low [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the perspective of overall capital sentiment, the lithium carbonate futures are still controlled by bulls. However, the position has been declining recently, and the risk of bulls taking profits and closing positions should be vigilant. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red line, blue ribbon, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, and the long - short dividing water level is 121,580 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should still be mainly to go long on dips. Do not chase the high directly. Find good entry positions according to the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday, and specific operations can be heard in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [1]. - **Follow - up Focus**: Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the exchange supervision intervenes, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales data after the subsidy continuation, and the actual impact of the geopolitical situation on lithium ore supply [2][3]. 3.2 Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued to decline today. The main 2605 contract fell 4.31% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 51,300 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: It was confirmed today that the State Administration for Market Regulation interviewed the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and leading enterprises on January 6, requiring them not to make agreements on production capacity, capacity utilization, production and sales volume, and sales price, etc. Previously, the polysilicon futures were trading in a high - level range between 55,000 and 60,000 yuan. Now, the silicon material price can no longer be maintained at a high level through cooperation and will return to cost competition. Leading enterprises may squeeze out small enterprises by reducing costs through technology, and the price may continue to fall [5][7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures still declined significantly today. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, green ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 59,365 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support level at 50,000 yuan [7]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy trend of "anti - involution" [7]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly today. The 2605 contract rose 2.11% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 8,715 yuan/ton [10]. - **Core Logic**: The interview of the photovoltaic association and leading enterprises by the State Administration for Market Regulation will cause the silicon material price to lose the coordinated support and return to cost competition. In the long run, polysilicon enterprises will reduce the purchase price and quantity of industrial silicon, directly putting pressure on the industrial silicon price. Coupled with the weak supply - demand situation and high inventory of industrial silicon itself, it lacks upward momentum [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures declined significantly. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 9,000 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is currently oscillating in the 8,500 - 9,000 yuan range. In the long term, attention can be paid to the impact of polysilicon returning to cost - based pricing on industrial silicon. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [12]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy trend of "anti - involution" [12].

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 09 日 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套 PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7168 | 5086 | 3846 | 6490 | 416.2 | | 涨跌 | -118 | -64 | -33 | -54 | -0.1 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.62% | -1.24% | -0.85% | -0.83% | -0.02% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | 88 | 60 | -91 | -54 | -1.1 | | 前日收盘价 | 114 | 76 | -91 | -70 | -3 | | 涨跌 | -26 | -16 | 0 | 16 | 1.9 | | 现货 | PX ...

20260109申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低0.98%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口，短期铜价更 | | | 多受市场情绪影响。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低0.73%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产 | | | 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。 建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | （元/ ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. With both supply and demand decreasing, along with the transmission effect of rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices, price support is obvious. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory depletion progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations [1][3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate around 53,000 yuan/ton. Policy factors may have contributed to the sharp price drop. In the off - season of the photovoltaic market, terminal demand is weak, downstream inventories are abundant, and substantial market demand is sluggish. In the short term, pay attention to new silicon wafer quotes and the January production plan; in the long term, focus on the implementation of the storage policy and inventory depletion progress [3][6]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon Price and Trading Data - On January 8, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,535 yuan/ton, a change of - 405 yuan/ton (- 4.53%) from the previous day's settlement. At the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 260,531 lots. On January 7, 2026, the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,799 lots, a change of 112 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply Side - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.7 million tons, a change of 0.36% from the previous week [1]. Demand Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. Recently, an orange pollution alert was issued in Shihezi, Xinjiang, and the expected supply contraction supported the price increase. The weekly output of silicone enterprises changed little. Under the background of emission reduction and price support, silicone monomer enterprises began to reduce production since early December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The recycled aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the reduced - production state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend [2]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3]. Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon Price and Trading Data - On January 8, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fell sharply to the daily limit, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,610 yuan/ton, a 9.00% drop from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 58,049 lots (67,800 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 39,605 lots [3]. Supply and Inventory - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. N - type material was 52.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturer inventories and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.60 (unit not specified), a 0.90% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer inventory was 23.19GW, a 6.92% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 5.10% change, and silicon wafer output was 10.18GW, a - 1.45% change [3]. Downstream Product Prices - Silicon wafers: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.49 yuan/piece. - Battery cells: High - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.39 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.39 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.39 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W. - Components: PERC182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm mainstream transaction price was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm mainstream transaction price was 0.71 - 0.72 yuan/W [4][5]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate in the range around 53,000 yuan/ton. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [6].

果蔬品日报 | 2026-01-09 苹果询价增多但成交一般，红枣关注旺季表现 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9531元/吨，较前一日变动-52元/吨，幅度-0.54%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1331，较前一日变动+52；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1131，较前一日变动+52。 近期市场资讯，产区库内晚富士整体成交仍显有限，甘肃整体走货尚可，陕西、山东零星春节礼盒开始包装，成 交多以低价货源为主，其余货源交易不多。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主； 甘肃产区客商按需调果农货源，包装发货较为稳定，走货尚可。山东产区成交较为零星，礼盒开始零星包装，少 量75#货源、三级货源出库为主，交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、70#出库价格 1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 2 - month contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of the month. The 02 contract is expected to have a delivery settlement price between 1750 - 1850 points under relatively pessimistic estimates, and its valuation support is expected to be in this range. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards, but the situation of contracts in June and August remains uncertain. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [5][6][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 8, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 58,139.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,089.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1706.00, 1163.30, 1415.00, 1527.40, 1105.20, and 1343.00 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping companies vary. For example, in the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk's price in the fourth week of January was 1685/2710; HPL's quotes in the first and second half - months of January and the first half - month of February were 1835/3035. Different alliances and shipping companies also have different price quotes and changes [1][2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. In terms of delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, and in February it was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 279,000 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in January, 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings in February, and 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, which will put pressure on the far - month contract prices [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. The demand situation is affected by factors such as the approaching Spring Festival [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, although the current fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and a long period of bottom - side oscillation, it is likely to be in a high - level oscillation state, but its trend depends on the overall sector sentiment. For the stainless - steel variety, the short - term trend highly depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation rhythm [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 146,500 yuan/ton and closed at 136,440 yuan/ton, a - 6.14% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,520,564 (+388,308) lots, and the open interest was 128,055 (-4,900) lots. The sharp decline was due to the Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister not disclosing the specific amount of 2026 nickel - mine RKAB approval and the decline of the precious - metal and non - ferrous sectors [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market has limited resources. The 1.25 nickel - ore from the Benguet mine in the Philippines was tendered at $32.5, a month - on - month increase. In January 2026 (Phase 1), the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 152,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading improved, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands remained high. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 39,330 (+554) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 276,300 (+666) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,050 yuan/ton and closed at 13,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 424,667 (+136,211) lots, and the open interest was 114,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a high - opening, low - closing, and oscillating - downward trend. The stainless - steel futures are easily affected by the price fluctuations of Shanghai nickel, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the Indonesian nickel - ore quota policy [3]. - **Spot**: The futures decline led to a limited callback in some spot prices, and the trading volume also decreased significantly. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 130 - 330 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan per nickel point to 960.0 yuan per nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. It is recommended to control positions, trade based on key support levels, and be vigilant against the risk of linked callbacks [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-09 下游持续畏高拒采 铅价出现回落 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-08，LME铅现货升水为-43.10美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-175元/吨至17300 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-150元 /吨至17350元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-200元/吨至17275元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-225元/吨至17300元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至10050元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/ 吨。 期货方面：2026-01-08，沪铅主力合约开于17725元/吨，收于17335元/吨，较前一交易日变化-495元/吨，全天交易 日成交87520手，较前一交易日变化4179手，全天交易日持仓46028手，手较前一交易日变化-5981手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17760元/吨，最低点达 ...

丙烯日报 | 2026-01-09 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5963元/吨（+9），丙烯华东现货价5975元/吨（+25），丙烯华北现货价5840元/吨（+45）， 丙烯华东基差12元/吨（+16），丙烯华北基差-154元/吨（-79）。丙烯开工率76%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR212美元/吨（+7），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR29美元/吨（+9），进口利润-282元/吨（-50），厂内库存44690吨（-3100）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率37%（-1.19%），生产利润-40元/吨（+5）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（+0%），生产利润-47 元/吨（+68）；正丁醇开工率83%（+2%），生产利润517元/吨（-28）；辛醇开工率89%（+7%），生产利润823元/吨 （-33）；丙烯酸开工率87%（+4%），生产利润233元/吨（-18）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+0%），生产利润-1045元/吨（-47）； 酚酮开工率86%（+5%），生产利润-729元/吨（+111）。 市场分析 供应端，滨华装置负荷提满以及辽宁金发PDH重启，带动丙烯开工稳定回升，丙烯整体宽松供应格局不变，但 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas were lifted, leading to improved transactions. The futures market showed a volatile upward trend, which further boosted the spot purchasing sentiment, causing a slight increase in spot prices. However, the new orders slowed down with the price increase. The supply side saw a rise in supply as some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production in January after the gas - based maintenance in the fourth quarter started in December. The demand side was in the process of off - season storage procurement. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market cooled down due to the raw material supply - guarantee policies, but the start - up rate rebounded after the environmental protection restrictions were lifted in some areas after New Year's Day, and the procurement improved. The start - up rate of melamine also rebounded with rigid demand procurement. The factory inventory of urea remained basically flat this week, while the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, and the lowest quotes were higher than the previous tender, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The report suggests continuous monitoring of export dynamics, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][3][4][5][6][8][9][14][16] 2. Urea Production - It covers the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates are presented [27][28][30] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and large - particle urea CFR in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - particle urea in China, the differences between foreign and Chinese prices, and the urea export profit and disk export profit are included [32][36][39] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of orders to be delivered are shown [46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract are included [50][53][57] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Volatile - Inter - period trading: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when the spread is low - Inter - variety trading: None [3]