新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 市场观望情绪相对浓重 铅价震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-25，LME铅现货升水为-28.49美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/ 吨至17075元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10300元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-25，沪铅主力合约开于17115元/吨，收于17045元/吨，较前一交易日变化-90元/吨，全天交易日 成交40496手，较前一交易日变化2076手，全天交易日持仓52466手，手较前一交易日变化-422手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17130元/吨，最低点达到1 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-11-26 宏观情绪乐观，钢价震荡运行 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3106元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3309元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般， 环比前日有所走弱，全国建材成交10.13万吨。 供需与逻辑：在经过几周的连续去库下，成材库存压力得到显著缓解，降库整体符合季节性特征。其中建材供需 基本面环比改善，供需双弱下库存压力得到较好缓解，卷螺价差大幅收窄，考虑到即将步入建材需求淡季，关注 后续市场情绪及库存变化情况。板材供需双强，高供应带来的高库存仍对板材价格形成压制，考虑到后期建材需 求转弱可能会形成拖累，板材或需要通过适度减产来化解高库存压力。关注钢材减产和利润变化， 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 钢材：宏观情绪乐观，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需扰动延续，矿价维持震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格小幅上涨。现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报盘 积极性一般，报价多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交97.5万吨，环比下跌13. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | . | 1万吨 ， | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | 环比减少4 ， | 76% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多 . | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 1万吨 . | 处于低位 ， ， | | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 | 组 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续反弹，20均线暂有压力。近期部分产能减产，格林美等货源偏紧。产业链上，镍 矿价格坚挺，海运费小幅上升，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格继续回落， 跌破900大关支撑，成本线重心再降。不锈钢库存小幅回升，300系小幅回落，需求表现仍不佳。精炼镍 库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货118550，基差2390，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253482，0，上交所仓单33650，-843，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, recent supply reduction is greater than expected, polyester load is firm, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts export demand. The inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. - For MEG, the arrival at the main port this week is moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production reduction in cracking and ethylene glycol plants. The price is expected to fluctuate within a wide range in the short term [7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day Review - No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, the spot basis was strong, and individual polyester factories made bids. Individual mainstream suppliers sold goods. This week, the negotiation and transaction were around 01 with a discount of 40 - 45, and the price negotiation range was around 4605 - 4655. There were transactions around 01 - 35 to 40 in mid - and late - December. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 43 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4635, the basis of the 01 contract is - 21, and the futures price is at a premium, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a negative situation [6]. - **Main positions**: The net long position is decreasing, showing a positive tendency [5]. - **Expectation**: The inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the MEG price fluctuated within a wide range, and the market negotiation was average. In the morning, the MEG futures fluctuated strongly, and the spot negotiation and transaction were around a premium of 28 - 31 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the MEG futures fluctuated weakly, and the spot basis weakened significantly. Today, the low - end spot basis was traded at a premium of 14 - 15 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, in the morning, the external MEG price was high, and the recent cargo negotiation and transaction were around 464 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the external price weakened slightly, and the recent cargo negotiation and transaction were around 461 US dollars/ton. In addition, there was an appropriate amount of Taiwan tender cargo traded around 467, with a cargo volume of 2000 tons [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3918, the basis of the 01 contract is 45, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 63.5 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons compared with the previous period, which is a negative factor [8]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a negative situation [8]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is increasing, showing a negative tendency [7]. - **Expectation**: The arrival at the main port this week is moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production reduction in cracking and ethylene glycol plants. The price is expected to fluctuate within a wide range in the short term [7]. 3. Today's Focus - No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data Price - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased by 9.000 to 584.500 US dollars/ton. The spot price of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) decreased by 17.000 to 824 US dollars/ton. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA remained unchanged at 4630 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of domestic MEG decreased by 10.000 to 3900 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester POY decreased by 75.000 to 6550 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D decreased by 50.000 to 6800 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY decreased by 25.000 to 7850 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber increased by 5.000 to 6295 yuan/ton [13]. - In the futures market, TA01 decreased by 24.000 to 4656 yuan/ton, TA05 decreased by 18.000 to 4706 yuan/ton, TA09 decreased by 18.000 to 4668 yuan/ton. EG01 decreased by 11.000 to 3873 yuan/ton, EG05 decreased by 1.000 to 3961 yuan/ton, EG09 decreased by 12.000 to 4034 yuan/ton [13]. Profit - PTA processing fee decreased by 375.843 to 63.64 yuan/ton. The profit of naphtha - based MEG decreased by 436.380 to - 1576.24 yuan/ton. The profit of externally - purchased ethylene - based MEG decreased by 310.478 to - 1302.75 yuan/ton. The profit of methanol - based MEG increased by 46.580 to - 1131.28 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - based MEG decreased by 16.500 to - 894.00 yuan/ton [13]. - The profit of POY decreased by 89.580 to 74.55 yuan/ton, the profit of FDY decreased by 64.580 to - 25.45 yuan/ton, the profit of DTY increased by 50.000 to 100.00 yuan/ton, and the profit of polyester staple fiber decreased by 9.580 to - 180.46 yuan/ton [13]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **MEG Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the data of MEG production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，COMEX白银期货涨1.35%，报51.005美元/盎司。COMEX铜期货涨1.07%，报50.205美元/ 磅，北京时间21:24曾冲高回至5.1050美元。 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, same as sugar, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Timber: ★★★, clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, bullish bias with limited market operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, clear upward trend and appropriate investment chance [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and production conditions. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific situations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton has risen for two consecutive days, and the spot sales basis is stable. New cotton cost supports the price but also limits its height, with short - term range - bound trading likely. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the price. As of November 20, 4631000 tons of lint cotton were processed nationwide, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn market has weak trading, with less new orders for spinning mills and lower开机 rates. High - count yarn has firm prices and better trading. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, keeping the output high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are starting to crush, and with good weather, sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were large, putting pressure on the supply side. The market's focus is shifting to the next season's production estimate. With good rainfall in Guangxi in the third quarter and an increase in the sugarcane vegetation index, the 25/26 season's sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is strong. In the spot market, small and medium - sized apples are mainly traded in Shandong, and other varieties have less trading. In the Northwest, merchants are packaging their own apples for the market, and the mainstream price is stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. Due to poor apple quality and high purchase prices, there is strong reluctance to sell among traders and farmers, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The future de - stocking situation is the main trading point, and there are increasing differences between bulls and bears. It is necessary to monitor the de - stocking situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU), 20 - rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR) all declined. Domestic natural rubber is stable with a slight decline, synthetic rubber spot prices are stable, the overseas butadiene tower - mouth price has risen, and the Thai raw material market price has fallen. Currently, global natural rubber supply is at a high level, but China's Yunnan production area is gradually entering the non - tapping season. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, with some plants restarting or under maintenance. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also increased. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate decreased due to some tire companies' maintenance, and Shandong tire companies' finished - product inventory continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 468900 tons, and last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 17000 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 39800 tons. Overall, demand is weakening, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, inventory is rising, cost support is stable, the external environment is deteriorating, and market sentiment is cautious. The strategy is to be bullish on RU, wait and see on NR and BR, and look for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for NR and BR [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures declined slightly. The spot price of coniferous pulp is 5300 yuan/ton for Moon and 5170 yuan/ton for Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta. The price of broad - leaf pulp is 4400 yuan/ton for Goldfish. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports is 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% month - on - month increase, with two consecutive weeks of significant inventory accumulation. The continuous increase in domestic import inventory and weak demand continue, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. After the previous increase, the basis has narrowed significantly. Due to the overall weak fundamentals, the price has continued to decline after the basis convergence. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuates. In the spot market, the mainstream price is stable. The overseas price is still high, and the domestic spot price is weak, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and domestic supply will remain low. The port outbound volume is above 60000 cubic meters, and demand supports the price. Log inventory is low, with relatively small inventory pressure. Low inventory supports the price to some extent, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the PTA and Ethylene Glycol Daily by Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, dated November 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: PTA Market Analysis Market Performance - On November 25, the PTA主力期货合约TA2601 fell 0.30%, and the basis strengthened to -39 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Information - The market price of PTA in East China today is 4635 yuan/ton, with the cost - side crude oil price stabilizing after a decline. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 71.17%. The weekly PTA factory inventory days are 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared to the previous period. The PTA processing fee has recovered to over 200 yuan/ton [3] Main Force Movements - The long - side main force reduced positions [3] Market Expectations - Recently, PTA supply has decreased significantly, and India's BIS cancellation has boosted export demand, leading to a small - scale de - stocking of PTA. Downstream polyester start - up may gradually weaken, and the long - term supply remains in excess. In the short term, the PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate following the cost side [3] Group 3: Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Market Analysis Market Performance - On November 25, the ethylene glycol主力期货合约 eg2601 rose 0.49%, and the basis weakened to 21 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Information - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 3918 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The cost - side crude oil price stabilized after a decline, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in a loss. The weekly inventory of MEG ports in East China totaled 63.3 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons compared to the previous period [4] Main Force Movements - There is a divergence between long and short main forces [4] Market Expectations - Recently, ethylene glycol inventory has been continuously rising, and although the inventory accumulation rate has decreased, the expectation has not been reversed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production and conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure of ethylene glycol. It is reported that a 3.3 - million - ton plant in Iran has recently shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. Downstream polyester start - up remains stable but has entered the consumption off - season. Under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction, the market may continue to maintain a volatile pattern [4]

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,808 yuan/ton to 3,884 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 2.0%, while the spot price in East China remained stable at 3,845 yuan/ton The basis (spot minus futures) was -39 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper discount and an expanded premium of the futures market relative to the spot, possibly driven by the capital side [2]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 353,300 lots to 317,468 lots, a decrease of 35,832 lots or 10.14%, suggesting that some long or short positions were closed The trading volume increased significantly from 164,315 lots to 282,100 lots, an increase of 117,785 lots or 71.68%, indicating increased market trading activity, but the decrease in open interest implies that short - term speculative behavior is dominant [2]. *** Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the oil - based operating rate at 76.23% and the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% However, the profit structure was divided The oil - based profit (such as ethylene oxidation method) generally deteriorated, for example, the profit of ethylene - SHELL oxidation method decreased from - 799 yuan/ton to - 889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan, indicating rising crude oil cost pressure The coal - based profit improved from 112.46 yuan/ton to 187.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan, indicating that the decrease in coal cost supported coal - based production capacity [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no change, reflecting stable terminal demand without significant improvement or deterioration The high load of the polyester sector supported ethylene glycol consumption, but the low loom load indicated weak terminal textile demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 661,000 tons to 732,000 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons or 10.74% The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased from 215,000 tons to 275,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 27.91%, indicating obvious inventory accumulation, increased port arrivals or insufficient shipments, and increased inventory pressure [3]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the upside limited by inventory pressure and the deterioration of oil - based profits On the supply side, the operating rate is stable but the profit is divided, with rising crude oil costs suppressing oil - based production capacity and falling coal costs benefiting coal - based production On the demand side, the high load of polyester provides support, but the low loom load and continuous inventory accumulation highlight the pressure of loose supply - demand The arrival of foreign goods is not mentioned to have changed, but the inventory increase implies potential import pressure Overall, the short - term rise of futures is driven by active trading, but the high inventory and stable demand in the fundamentals will limit the upside space, and the price may fluctuate in the bottom range [3].

11月25日盘中，PVC期货主力合约窄幅震荡，最高上探至4525.00元。截止收盘，PVC主力合约报 4491.00元，涨幅0.16%。 PVC期货主力小幅上涨0.16%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 冠通期货：近期PVC偏弱震荡 目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期 偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC 的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换 量，上周出口签单环比回升。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10 月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等 同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产 改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天 津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。 ...