Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in global gold demand, particularly driven by investment, following the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][6]. Group 1: Global Gold Demand Trends - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand ever [3]. - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of total gold demand [3]. - Gold ETFs saw substantial inflows, with holdings increasing by 222 tons in Q3, translating to $26 billion in investment [3]. Group 2: China Market Performance - In contrast, China's gold demand showed a decline, with retail investment and consumption dropping to 152 tons in Q3, a 7% year-on-year decrease and a 38% quarter-on-quarter decline, marking the weakest Q3 since 2009 [6]. - Gold ETF demand in China turned negative, with outflows of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately $540 million) in Q3, ending a three-quarter inflow trend [6]. - Despite the challenges, the total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs in China grew by 11% to 168.8 billion RMB (about $23.7 billion) due to rising gold prices [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks continued to purchase gold, with net purchases reaching 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year [7]. - Cumulatively, central banks bought 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025 [7].

Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with a total value of $146 billion [1] - Central banks accelerated gold purchases, totaling 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-over-year rise [1] - China's retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 152 tons in Q3 2025, a 7% year-over-year decline, but the monetary value surged by 29% to approximately $16.9 billion [1] - The outlook for the gold market remains optimistic due to a weakening dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation, which may further support gold investment demand [1] Group 1 - Global gold demand in Q3 2025 reached 1,313 tons, marking the highest quarterly demand on record [1] - Central banks' net gold purchases totaled 220 tons in Q3, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous quarters [1] - China's retail gold investment and consumption demand, while down in volume, saw a substantial increase in monetary value, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2 - The continuous rise in gold prices suggests that there is still potential for further increases in the market [1] - The strategic value of gold allocation remains solid, indicating that the market has not yet reached saturation [1] - The combination of macroeconomic factors is likely to sustain the demand for gold in the near future [1]

当地时间10月29日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美 联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 距离上次降息还不到2个月，美联储再次调整政策利率水平。为什么？ 来听总台央视记者王雷——"财经老王"带来的分析↓ 答案就藏在就业数据里。虽然美国9月非农就业数据没有按时发布，但是10月中旬美联储发布的全国经 济形势调查报告，也就是"褐皮书"显示，全美各地区、各行业劳动力需求普遍低迷，同时物价还在涨。 市场普遍认为，美联储这次降息，就是为了给就业、消费"托个底"。 别觉得美联储降息离我们很远，美元在全球金融体系中使用广泛，美联储降息，对各国都会有一定的影 响。对我国的企业、个人也会有影响。 美联储降息，美元大概率会走弱，人民币会相对升值。这就意味着留学、海外购物、旅游的成本会降 低。如果你未来需要用美元，可以趁美元走弱的时候换一些美元备用。另外，美联储降息将会直接压低 美债的收益率，如果你持有美元资产，回报率可能会下降，包括挂钩美元的理财产品，收益就可能减 少。如果你持有相关产品的话，可以问问银行的客户经理怎样应对。 还有，美联 ...

Group 1: Impact on Enterprises - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut typically leads to an increase in international commodity prices, which may raise the import costs for industries in China such as chemicals, metal processing, and air logistics [2] - Companies that heavily rely on overseas energy and commodity resources need to pay closer attention to the risks associated with rising costs [2] Group 2: Impact on Individuals - A decrease in the Federal Reserve's interest rates is likely to weaken the US dollar, resulting in a relative appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which lowers costs for studying abroad, overseas shopping, and travel [3] - Individuals planning to use US dollars in the future may consider exchanging some dollars while the currency is weak [3] - The interest rate cut will directly lower the yields on US Treasury bonds, potentially decreasing returns on dollar-denominated assets, including wealth management products linked to the dollar [3] - The weakening of the dollar may influence global capital flows, with more funds likely directed towards emerging markets, making Chinese assets more attractive, which is a positive signal for China's capital markets [3]

换资前言： 交易之路，并非为求人人理解而来。你做得再好，未必人人喜欢；付出再多，未必人人称道——旁人都 是盯紧盈亏结果，缺很少顾及你复盘的深夜、控险的煎熬。一样的眼有不同看法，一样的心有别样想 法，强求认同本就是自我束缚。更要清醒：交易市场不同情弱者，更不相信眼泪。做事无需人懂，尽心 尽力便好；交易不必讨喜，问心无愧即可。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二（10月28日）亚欧时段，现货黄金走出冲高回落走势，目前交投于3901附近，跌1.96%，盘中振幅 达140美金。中美贸易乐观情绪显著抵消美联储降息预期及美元走弱对黄金的支撑作用，推动黄金下探 至三周低点。尽管亚洲时段黄金曾呈现小幅涨势，但贸易层面的积极信号持续削弱这一避险大宗商品的 需求，导致其未能延续反弹态势。从价格走势看，黄金在盘中突破4000美元心理关口后，已连续第三个 交易日下行，且走出冲高回落走势，进一步印证当前市场对避险资产的配置意愿的降温。此次黄金下跌 除贸易乐观情绪的主导外，部分技术性抛盘也起到推波助澜的作用。当价格跌破关键心理关口后，前期 多单止损离场引发短期抛售，加剧了下行节奏。10月27日，菲律宾央行一 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Asia-Pacific equity market** and its relationship with the **US dollar** movements, particularly how currency fluctuations impact equity performance in the region. Core Insights and Arguments - **Currency Impact on Equity Returns**: Currency moves have historically contributed an average of **16%** to the MXAPJ index USD price return over the past **20 years**. This impact is significant and varies across different Asian markets [2][9][15]. - **Correlation with Dollar Movements**: There is a strong inverse correlation (60-80%) between regional equity returns and the dollar, indicating that Asian equities tend to perform better when the dollar weakens [6][19]. - **Future Dollar Weakness**: The dollar has declined **10%** since its peak in January, and further depreciation is expected due to factors such as overvaluation, narrowing interest rate differentials, and high budget deficits [7][8][10]. - **Earnings Sensitivity**: MXAPJ earnings have a neutral beta of **+0.1x** to a weaker dollar, with a potential **+0.2%** earnings revision for a **5%** annual-average appreciation of local currencies against the USD. Japan's earnings are negatively impacted by a stronger yen, estimated at **-3%** for a **5%** appreciation [6][44]. - **Valuation Effects**: Each **1%** appreciation in Asian FX leads to a **0.1x** increase in the MXAPJ forward P/E ratio, with Japan being an outlier showing a negative sensitivity [6][57]. - **Portfolio Flows**: A weaker dollar is associated with increased foreign investor flows into Asian equities, which contribute to stronger equity returns. The correlation between foreign equity flows and Asian equity performance is about **75%** on a 3-year rolling basis [66][67]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Intraregional Differences**: Different Asian markets exhibit varying sensitivities to dollar movements. For instance, Hong Kong and China show higher sensitivity, while Japan and Taiwan are less affected [78]. - **Sector Performance**: Higher beta sectors such as media, entertainment, and autos tend to outperform during periods of USD weakness, while defensive sectors like telecom and utilities lag behind [33][34]. - **Implementation Strategies**: The report suggests screening for stocks that may benefit from a weaker dollar, focusing on those with negative share price correlation with the dollar and high USD debt exposure. Conversely, stocks with high US sales exposure may be negatively impacted [82][83]. Conclusion - The outlook for Asian equities remains constructive, supported by the expectation of further dollar depreciation and favorable monetary policy conditions. The dynamics between currency movements and equity performance will be crucial for investors to monitor as they navigate the market into **2026** [10][67].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 57.25% and 51.89% respectively, but last week they decreased by 2.94% and 6.17% [4][21]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains intact, including a weakening US dollar and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability [6]. - Short - term advice is to take profits on long gold positions, and for options, take profits on purchased call options [1][6]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - **Price Trends**: Since 2025, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had significant increases, but declined last week [4][21]. - **Inflation**: CPI reached a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined. Since February 2024, CPI rebounded, and core inflation showed signs of slowing decline or rising. In September 2025, CPI slightly increased, while core CPI slightly decreased [4][24]. - **Interest Rates**: US medium - term Treasury yields declined from mid - October 2023 to January 2025, rebounded since February 2024, and fell below the 2024 low since September [4][28]. - **Supply and Demand**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is conducive to price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, mainly due to increased investment demand. The domestic gold market remained in a tight balance in 2024 and 2025, with significant increases in investment demand and central bank gold purchases [4][41]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, US non - farm employment data was much weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The average hourly wage of non - farm employees increased by 0.4% [4][37]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Outlook**: Gold prices opened high and closed low last Friday, with a slight decline. After a significant increase due to risk - aversion sentiment, gold prices dropped on the evening of October 21st, mainly due to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking from overbought technical conditions. However, the long - term upward trend of gold remains [6]. - **Strategy**: For long gold positions, consider reducing positions in the medium term and setting stop - profit levels. For call options, take profits [6]. Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Tables**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is beneficial for price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, and the domestic market remained in a tight balance [38][41]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline. The Chinese central bank has been purchasing gold since 2022, with different purchase volumes in each quarter of 2025 [45]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023 and 2024, gold holdings in ETFs decreased. As of October 24, 2025, gold holdings in ETFs increased by 265.07 tons, but last week there was a reduction of 3.91 tons [46]. Other Market Indicators - **Exchange Rates and Dollar Index**: The report presents trends in the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and other major currencies [53]. - **Gold Price Differences**: The price difference between domestic and international gold markets fluctuated significantly [69][70]. - **Precious Metal and Oil Ratios**: The report shows trends in the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [72].

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver prices experienced significant increases on October 23, 2023, driven by strong buying interest following heavy selling pressure and market corrections, with gold futures for December 2025 rising by 1.91% to $4143.2 per ounce [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold price saw a substantial recovery after a significant drop, with a 50% increase in 2025, solidifying its position as the best-performing asset of the year [1]. - Morgan Stanley raised its gold price forecast for 2026 to $4400 per ounce, a significant increase from the previous estimate of $3313 per ounce [1]. - Technical analysis indicates that the next upward target for gold futures is to break through the strong resistance level of $4250, while the next downward target for bears is to fall below the strong support level of $4000 [1]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver futures for December delivery increased by 2.03%, closing at $48.65 per ounce [2].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is at risk of entering a mild recession, which may lead to more significant interest rate cuts and a weakening of the dollar [1] Economic Outlook - The potential for a mild recession in the U.S. economy could trigger larger interest rate reductions [1] - A weaker dollar may result from the anticipated economic downturn and subsequent monetary policy adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is at risk of entering a mild recession, which could lead to significant interest rate cuts and a weakening of the dollar [1] Economic Outlook - Growth slowdown and high valuations in U.S. equities may replicate the mild recession scenario seen in 2001 [1] - Historical context shows that the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates from 6.5% to 1.0% between 2001 and 2003, resulting in a 40% decline in the dollar index over the following seven years [1] Risks and Warnings - Concerns regarding inflation, economic growth, asset valuations, and market bubbles could push the economy towards a mild recession, potentially exceeding expectations for both interest rate and dollar declines [1]