目前，美国联邦基金利率水平仍然处于较高的水平，这对于缓解美国企业融资负担和美国债务利息负担 极其不利，甚至会将美国经济拖入衰退的泥潭。 美国经济在第一季度已经出现了0.2%的负增长，第二季度的经济情况似乎也并不乐观。特朗普总统的 一系列经济政策，特别是关税政策给美国经济蒙上了巨大的不确定性的阴影，使得美国经济的前景更加 扑朔迷离。 巴菲特先生说过："只有在潮水退去之后，我们才能够知道谁在裸泳"。 6月4日公布的数据显示，美国5月ADP就业人数从前值6万人大幅下降至3.7万人。作为美国非农就业数 据的先导数据的ADP就业人数的再次大幅恶化反映出美国就业市场已经出现了萎缩迹象。 笔者认为，如果不久后公布的美国最新非农就业数据也与ADP就业数据一样不景气，那么美联储在即将 召开的6月议息会议上重新开启降息进程的概率就会大大提升。 前期美联储对于货币政策一直保持观望态度的主要依据之一是美国就业市场仍然保持强劲。如果美国就 业市场的强劲状态出现松动，那么美联储对于货币政策的观望态度也会出现松动。 如果美联储在就业市场出现恶化迹象的情况下仍然维持美国联邦基金利率水平不变，那么未来美联储注 定要为其错失及时放松货币政策的时 ...

Core Viewpoint - California's Governor Newsom has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over tariff policies, claiming they are illegal and have severely disrupted the U.S. economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact on California - California, as the largest importing state and manufacturing hub in the U.S., plays a crucial role in international trade, with a total import and export volume of $675 billion in 2024, and 45% of exports going to Mexico, Canada, and China [3]. - Trump's aggressive tariff policies have significantly impacted California's economy, causing supply chain disruptions, a 12%-15% increase in raw material costs, and hindering 60,000 small businesses from exporting [3]. - The lawsuit against the Trump administration is a direct response to the economic damage caused, including severe losses for farmers and technology companies [3]. Group 2: Financial Sector Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has warned that Trump's tariff policies are likely to push inflation up, creating a dilemma for the Fed between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth [5]. - Economic experts and financial institutions are pessimistic about the outlook, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 45% chance of recession if Trump continues trade wars, while JPMorgan estimates the likelihood at 60% [5]. - Standard & Poor's has also warned that the U.S. sovereign credit rating could be downgraded from its current AA+ level due to deteriorating fiscal conditions linked to tariff policies [5]. Group 3: Bond Market and Public Sentiment - The trade war initiated by Trump has caused significant turmoil in the bond market, leading to a record increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the ten-year yield reaching 4.5% [6]. - The rising yields on U.S. debt, which has reached $36 trillion, could increase annual interest payments by nearly $100 billion, further straining the U.S. fiscal situation [6]. - Public sentiment is largely against Trump's tariff policies, with 72% of respondents in a Quinnipiac University poll believing that tariffs will harm the economy in the short term, and 53% believing the same for the long term [8].

Group 1 - The tax reform bill passed in the House raises concerns about the U.S. budget deficit and the attractiveness of the dollar, leading to uncertainty among stock and bond investors [1] - Hedgeye Risk Management's CEO Keith McCullough believes that the bond and currency markets are sending clear signals, stating that he does not hold any U.S. Treasury bonds and has reduced his gold holdings to a minimum due to rising U.S. economic growth and inflation [1] - McCullough asserts that the U.S. will not enter a recession, and he anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the next three to four quarters, which gives him confidence in not holding U.S. government debt [1] Group 2 - McCullough acknowledges the risks associated with U.S. debt and fiscal deficits but believes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will not fall below 4.43%, contrary to his previous belief that it could easily drop below 4% [1] - The company holds some fixed-income assets, specifically high-yield corporate bonds, and McCullough indicates that the lack of volatility in high-yield bond spreads suggests no imminent widespread recession or decline in corporate profits [1] - McCullough expects the economic outlook to improve from Q4 to Q1 of the following year, which should provide more support for the dollar, while he still recommends going long on the euro, Australian dollar, and European equities, particularly in Germany, Spain, and Belgium [1] Group 3 - McCullough's model suggests that the worst period for the dollar has passed, as he believes the U.S. economy will not enter a recession and inflation will begin to rise [2] - He indicates that all rate cut expectations for the year have been largely eliminated, and any potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve will not be as significant as investors might expect [2]

智通财经APP获悉，美国首次申请失业救济金人数意外降至四周以来最低点位，进一步表明在特朗普政 府主导的贸易政策带来越来越大经济增长不确定性之际，美国劳动力市场依然保持健康。这也意味着特 朗普面向全球的激进关税政策目前尚未对于美国经济造成重大负面影响，给了美联储政策制定者们继续 观望经济形势以及继续维系高利率的关键理由。 美国首次申请失业救济人数降至4周最低点——持续申领人数则略有上升 持续申领失业救济金人数——衡量领取失业救济整体人数的衡量指标，在前一周则增至 190 万人，仅仅 略高于经济学家们普遍预期。 初请失业金数据的最新水平显示，即便对关税政策以及特朗普政府缩减联邦政府规模所产生的连锁负面 效应感到忧虑，企业们仍相对满意当前的用工规模。 虽然美国政府已对部分关税做出让步，圣路易斯联储主席阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆(Alberto Musalem)仍认为特 朗普政府主导的贸易政策可能拖累美国劳动力市场。 美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至5月17日当周，美国初请失业金人数减少2,000 人，至22.7万人， 低于经济学家们普遍预期的23万人。该统计期涵盖了美国政府编制月度就业报告的调查周。 华尔街大行高盛集团的 ...

Group 1 - President Trump pressured Walmart to absorb tariff costs without raising prices [1] - Target Corporation lowered its full-year sales forecast after a weak quarterly performance, downplaying plans for price increases related to tariffs [1][3] - Target's comparable sales fell by 3.8% in the quarter ending May 3, exceeding analyst expectations [3] Group 2 - Home improvement retailers Lowe's and Home Depot are exploring strategies to manage tariff costs without comprehensive price increases [3] - Home Depot indicated that while there won't be overall price hikes, some individual product prices may adjust, and certain items might disappear from shelves [3] - Lowe's executives emphasized maintaining price competitiveness and minimizing consumer impact [3] Group 3 - Nike avoided mentioning tariffs but announced price increases on various footwear and apparel products, with specific increases of $5 for shoes priced between $100 and $150, and $10 for shoes over $150 [5] - Major U.S. retailers are facing dual challenges of high costs from tariffs and the need to avoid alienating consumers or the White House [5] Group 4 - A recent Reuters survey indicated that economists believe U.S. government policies have negatively impacted the economy, with over 55% stating it caused severe damage [6] - Current tariff rates are significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, contributing to high policy uncertainty and recession risks [6] - Economists expect U.S. inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target at least until 2027 [6]

更多精彩文章：A股市场共振性减弱 铂钯投资是押注东升西降 5月21日，美国财政部拍卖160亿美元的20年期国债。本次拍卖的最终得标利率为5.047%，这也是20年期美债拍卖收益率有记录以来第二次突破5%大关。 美债滚雪球+特朗普减税计划+特朗普关税政策不稳定+美债6月兑付高峰+美债评级被下调+大国博弈等因素，导致做多美债收益率的期权大规模攀升，美债 再遭市场集中抛售，并导致美国市场遭遇股债汇三杀，美国的金融风险再次抬升。 目前美国股债汇三个市场已经很难平衡了，如果美债市场继续承压，不仅股市风险会明显提高，且债务风险化问题将更加严重，将快速向经济传导，影响经 济增速与就业，负反馈将笼罩美国经济将。 美国私人债务公共化--美国公共债务国际化之路已经走进死胡同，走到了一个极端，事实证明这条路是走不通的，美国向中国等国家长期转嫁债务危机的计 划必然迎来反噬，只有悬崖勒马，找出自身问题所在才能缓解美国危机，但这非常艰难，因为美国的犹太资本有失控趋势，所以美债将迎来大考，若考试不 及格，美元将会跌落国际母货币地位。（本文系馨月说财经原创文章，转载请注明作者及来源于新浪微博头条文章） 美债承压如果倒逼美联储降息的话，美债与 ...

智通财经5月20日电，摩根大通CEO戴蒙表示，美国经济衰退的可能性为50%。 ...

Economic Outlook - The recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's reflects concerns over increasing government debt and interest expenditures, with the federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and a projected deficit of $1.8 trillion for 2024, which is 6.4% of GDP [1][2] - Moody's predicts that if the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended, the federal deficit could increase by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio from 98% in 2024 to 134% by 2035 [1] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan reported a decline in the US consumer confidence index to 50.8% in May, marking the lowest level since June 2022 and a continuous drop for five months [2] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 7.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from April [2] Economic Performance - The US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023, the worst quarterly performance since 2022, attributed largely to the impact of increased tariffs [2][3] - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, grew by 1.8%, showing a significant slowdown compared to previous quarters [3] Retail Sector Impact - Retail sales in April increased by only 0.1% month-over-month, significantly lower than the growth rate in March, indicating weakened consumer spending [3] - Major retailers like Walmart and Best Buy are planning to raise prices on imported goods to offset increased costs due to tariffs, despite warnings from President Trump against passing costs onto consumers [3] Tourism Industry - The number of international visitors to the US decreased by 11.6% year-over-year in March, negatively impacting the tourism sector, which contributes approximately 9% to the US economy [3] - The World Travel and Tourism Council forecasts a 7% decline in tourism revenue for the US by 2025 [3] Federal Reserve Policy - President Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the Fed has opted to maintain current rates, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change [3] Trade Policy Concerns - Analysts express that the high tariff levels, despite recent adjustments, will continue to exert negative effects on the US economy, potentially leading to high inflation, high unemployment, and economic recession in the long term [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the US economy may enter a period characterized by more frequent and persistent supply shocks [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. 30-year Treasury futures fell by 21 points, while the 10-year Treasury futures decreased by 7 points [2] - WTI crude oil futures saw a decline of up to 1%, settling at $61.30 per barrel [2] - As of the latest update, NYMEX crude oil prices narrowed their decline to 0.11% [3] Group 2 - Spot gold prices increased by 1.2%, reaching $3,239.5 per ounce [4] - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in Treasury bonds maturing this year [8] - The U.S. federal budget deficit exceeded $1.3 trillion in the first half of the fiscal year 2025, marking the second-highest half-year deficit in history [8] Group 3 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing increased government debt and interest payments [7] - The downgrade reflects a significant rise in the ratio of U.S. government debt and interest payments compared to similarly rated countries [7] - Moody's projects that mandatory spending, including interest, will rise from approximately 73% of total spending in 2024 to 78% by 2035 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart is set to raise prices on certain products in the U.S. due to the impact of government tariff policies, which have led to increased costs that the company cannot fully absorb [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first fiscal quarter ending April 30, Walmart reported a net profit of $4.49 billion, a decrease of over 12% year-on-year [1]. - The CEO Doug McMillon indicated that the narrow retail profit margins make it impossible for Walmart to absorb all the pressure from the new tariffs [1]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - CFO John Rainey stated that the cost increases from tariffs have exceeded the capacity of retailers, and consumers are likely to see price hikes starting late May, with more significant increases expected in June [3][5]. - Rainey emphasized that the initial tariff levels proposed in early April are already too high for retailers to manage profit margins effectively, prompting a review of product categories and their price elasticity [5]. Group 3: Industry Implications - Analysts suggest that once Walmart begins to raise prices, other retailers may follow suit, indicating a potential industry-wide trend [6][8]. - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon warned of ongoing recession risks in the U.S., although the likelihood of a recession has been adjusted down from 60% to 50% by their economists [8][10].